Afghan Presidential Election Aug 2009

[Merlin]

The Afghan's 2nd Presidential Election campaign has just started. Election will be held on August 20, 2009.

Afghan presidential campaign opens

1 hr ago KABUL (AP) — A two-month campaign season began Tuesday for presidential elections to decide who leads Afghanistan for the next five years, as the Taliban rebellion grows more violent and the U.S. sends in tens of thousands of troops to combat it.

Campaigning got off to a slow start. The only signs of activity were the posters of President Hamid Karzai — who is currently visiting Russia — and some of his 40 opponents in the Aug. 20 vote that appeared overnight on the streets of Kabul.

Karzai, who has served as Afghan leader since soon after the Taliban regime's ouster in 2001 and comfortably won the first presidential vote in 2004, is expected to win again. But many Afghans are unhappy with his leadership.

Militant violence is rising and public anger reverberates against his government and U.S. troops for accidental civilian killings in military operations. Economic issues will be crucial too. Poverty remains widespread and corruption is rife.

Karzai's main challengers are former Cabinet colleagues: former Finance Minister Ashraf Ghani and former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah. ....

Key to Karzai's success could be his ability to again win the support of his fellow Pashtun tribespeople in the south and east of the country — the largest ethnic group in this diverse nation of about 30 million people.

In some campaign posters, the president appeared alongside his two vice presidential nominees, including a former warlord accused of rights abuses — Mohammad Qasim Fahim. ....

The Afghan government, the U.N. and the U.S. and NATO militaries are working to provide enough security so Afghans from the snowcapped mountains in the north to the unending deserts in the south may cast votes. Thousands of new troops are pouring in to help protect the balloting. ...

The Pashtun-based Taliban have urged Afghans not to vote and have launched minor and scattered attacks on voting registration centers. But Taliban leaders have not said whether they will attempt a large-scale disruption of the election. ...

[Merlin]

Kazai has lose support according to this, the only opinion poll.

Slump in support for Karzai as Afghan election campaign starts

17 June [IrishTimes] OFFICIAL CAMPAIGNING for Afghanistan’s presidential election began yesterday with an opinion poll revealing that support for Hamid Karzai, the incumbent, has slumped in the 4½ years since he became the country’s first democratically elected leader.

As many of the 41 candidates began plastering Kabul with posters yesterday, what is likely to be the only opinion poll of the campaign showed that much of the shine has been rubbed off Mr Karzai by years of government mismanagement and corruption.

According to the poll of 3,200 Afghans, Mr Karzai can expect to receive 33 per cent of the vote – well below the half of all votes required to win the first round of the election, on August 20th. In the last election, in 2004, Mr Karzai won 54 per cent.

More alarmingly for the president, his support in the south, the heartland of the dominant Pashtun people and his power base, has dropped sharply since 2004, according to the opinion poll conducted by the International Republican Institute, an independent organisation that promotes democracy and receives funding from the US government.

Nationwide, 50 per cent of Pashtuns questioned said they voted for Mr Karzai last time, but only 26 per cent supported him now. ....

[Merlin]

More Nato forces to ensure a peaceful election is important. But not too many Nato countries are willing to send more than token forces as they do not feel this is their war. Nato is too diverse. Thus the Nato Sec Gen can only get another 8000 to 10000 troops.

NATO adds troops ahead of Afghan election

18 June [PressTV] The outgoing NATO Secretary-General says between 8,000 and 10,000 international troops will join the alliance-led military force in Afghanistan for the August elections.

After talks with the Afghan President Hamid Karzai, Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer stressed the importance of the elections for the international community.

Scheffer said the conflict in Afghanistan should be solved politically. ... .

The NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), which already numbers around 61,000 soldiers from about 40 countries, will also be protecting the observers of the election, he said.

Despite the heavy presence of US-led forces in Afghanistan, violence is on the rise two months ahead of the country's presidential elections.

[gabriel]

More Nato forces to ensure a peaceful election is important. But not too many Nato countries are willing to send more than token forces as they do not feel this is their war. Nato is too diverse.

Source ?

[Merlin]

Source ?

I had excerpted the list, and linked it previously in another thread.

Just go to say Wikipedia, key in ISAF, and look it up.

[gabriel]

I had excerpted the list, and linked it previously in another thread.

Just go to say Wikipedia, key in ISAF, and look it up.

That's not what i meant, but never mind, i have found it.

[Merlin]

The Afghan President Election is coming soon, on Aug 20. This is a good analysis. Click into the link for more details.

Afghan election: Can Karzai's rivals close the gap?

13 July [CSMonitor] Top contenders Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani are campaigning outside their traditional bases and attacking the incumbent.

Kabul and Paktika Province, Afghanistan - Rivals to Afghan President Hamid Karzai are stepping up their campaigns ahead of an Aug. 20 presidential election that is just beginning to look like a real contest.

Although Mr. Karzai leads the field of 41 candidates by 24 percentage points, according to a May poll, serious contenders like former government ministers Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani appear to be gaining popularity and may even force the incumbent into a runoff, say Afghan political analysts.

Meanwhile, both candidates are campaigning in areas – and with ethnic groups – outside their typical bases. They are directing fierce criticism at Karzai, trying to tap into widespread resentment at continuing insecurity and weak and corrupt governance.

In a speech in southeastern Paktika Province over the weekend, Mr. Abdullah struck a defiant tone in front of a crowd of several hundred Pashtun tribesmen – a constituency not traditionally favorable to the former Northern Alliance leader.

"I want Afghanistan to stand on its own feet so that in a few years we won't need foreign troops. The president's bodyguards are all American. He doesn't trust his own people. If you don't have support, why try to stand for election? Afghans deserve better," he declared to a roar of approval.

Mr. Ghani – a former World Bank analyst who was in 2006 tipped for the job of United Nations Secretary General – is traveling north to non-Pashtun regions. ....

"The president can hide in the palace, but Dr. Ghani is not afraid of his own people," says one Ghani spokesman. ....

[Merlin]

What's happening here?

Karzai Snubs TV Debate Before Afghanistan Election, AFP Says

July 24 (Bloomberg) -- Afghan President Hamid Karzai failed to attend a television debate last night for candidates running in national elections, prompting opponents to accuse him of being unable to defend his record, Agence France-Presse reported.

Karzai, who came to power after U.S.-led troops ousted the Taliban in 2001, is favorite to win the Aug. 20 ballot even as he is accused of failing to rein in corruption and contain the insurgency. He won the last election in 2004 with 55.4 percent of the vote.

“He does not have any program,” AFP cited Said Ali Razwani, a spokesman for former foreign minister and presidential candidate Abdullah Abdullah, as saying. ... Karzai’s campaign team said it wasn’t given enough notice of the debate on private channel Tolo, and accused it of being biased against the president.

Abdullah and ex-Finance Minister Ashraf Ghani, Karzai’s main challengers, went ahead with the debate and laid out platforms focusing on security and economic issues, while the moderator made frequent references to Karzai’s absence, according to the report. Few Afghans have televisions to watch such events.

[Merlin]

Abdullah is considered a serious challenger to Karzai.

Serious Challenger Emerges in Afghan Race

23 July [NYTimes] HERAT, Afghanistan — When Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, the main election challenger to President Hamid Karzai, arrived here to campaign last weekend, thousands of supporters choked the six-mile drive from the airport. Cars were plastered with his posters. Motorbikes flew blue banners. Young men wearing T-shirts emblazoned with his face leapt aboard his car to embrace him to ecstatic cheers.

With only a month to go, Dr. Abdullah has started his campaign late, but in its first two weeks he has canvassed six provinces and drawn growing support and larger crowds than expected. Rapturous welcomes like this one have suddenly elevated him to the status of potential future president. ....

Mr. Karzai is still widely considered the front-runner in the campaign for the Aug. 20 presidential election. But Dr. Abdullah, who has the backing of the largest opposition group, the National Front, is the one candidate among the field of 41 who has a chance of forcing Mr. Karzai into a runoff, a contest between the top two vote-getters if no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the votes in the first balloting.

Already well known among most Afghans, Dr. Abdullah, 48, an ophthalmologist, has a background that includes years of resistance to Soviet and Taliban rule as well as a crucial role in the formation of the new democratic government after the American intervention. ....

After serving as foreign minister in Mr. Karzai’s government for five years, he left in 2006 and has since become a strong critic of the president’s leadership. He refused an offer to become Mr. Karzai’s running mate, and he contends that the president practices a policy of divide and rule that has polarized the country.

To do that, he advocates the devolution of power from the strong presidency built up under Mr. Karzai to a parliamentary system that he says will be more representative. He is also calling for a system of electing officials for Afghanistan’s 34 provinces and nearly 400 districts as a way to build support for the government.

Those provincial governors are now appointed from Kabul, and many have been criticized for cronyism and corruption. Influential Shiite clerics here in Herat, who supported Mr. Karzai in the last election in 2004, are now so fed up with corrupt appointees that they have said they will back Dr. Abdullah this time. ....

[Merlin]

This is expected. What is not sure is how effective are the disruptions. And how much they would affect Kazai.

Taliban says it will disrupt Afghan poll

7 hrs ago [AP] KABUL — The Taliban urged Afghans on Thursday to stay away from the Aug. 20 elections, threatening to block the roads to polling stations and dismissing the balloting as an "American process." ....

In a statement posted on a Web site used frequently by the militants, the extremist Islamic movement mocked the upcoming presidential and provincial polls as part of an American "failed strategy" in the country — paid for and secured by foreigners.

The statement highlights the pressure likely to face voters who choose to cast ballots in areas of the country where the insurgents are strongest. ...

The statement urged Taliban fighters to prevent people from voting.

It said that a day before the elections, roads would be blocked to government vehicles and civilian traffic "and the people should be aware of that."

Hundreds of polling stations are likely to remain shut on the election date, almost all in areas dominated by Pashtuns, the biggest ethnic group and the backbone of the Taliban. A low Pashtun turnout could call the legitimacy of the election results into question.

A low turnout in Pashtun areas could also cost President Hamid Karzai support among his fellow Pashtuns, who tend to vote by ethnicity even though many of them are disenchanted with him because of his ties to the Americans. Karzai's chief rival in the 39-candidate field, former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah, is popular in northern Tajik areas, which are more peaceful and more likely to have a strong turnout. ....

It was unclear whether the Taliban would be capable of intimidating large numbers of people from voting. ....

[Merlin]

Kazai may not have it easy at this Aug 20 Presidential Election.

Abdullah campaign king in Afghan vote hunt

1 hr ago [AFP] JURM, Afghanistan — As criticism mounts against Afghan President Hamid Karzai for failing to reach out to ordinary voters, his main rival has been crowned king of the campaign trail for the August 20 election.

Dressed in a traditional cream shirt and Western-style leather jacket, ex-foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah is back in the northeast mountains where he earned a reputation as a fearless member of the anti-Soviet resistance. ....

Swinging through four villages within 24 hours, the eye doctor gives voters exactly what they want -- conservative rhetoric laced with memories of jihad against the Soviets and resistance hero Ahmad Shah Massoud.

Observers say Abdullah has done more than any of the other 41 presidential candidates to tap into voters' growing dissatisfaction with those who have led poverty-stricken, war-torn Afghanistan for the past eight years.

That is an easy task in northeast Badakhshan province, where the "doctor" is revered for having been close to the late Massoud and for travelling snow-capped peaks on horseback to save wounded guerrillas two decades ago.

Leaving aside much of the south inflamed by the Taliban insurgency, Abdullah has flown west and east, playing on his mixed Tajik and Pashtun heritage, depending on his audience in this ethnically riven country. ....

Abdullah and his running mates -- a diplomat and a surgeon -- have branded themselves as a new generation which wants to loosen warlords' grip on power, ease corruption and weaken damaging alliances that thwart democratic reform.

Karzai is tipped to win the election but analysts say Abdullah is probably the only candidate capable of forcing him into a run-off, by depriving the president of a minimum 50 percent of the vote in the first round. ....

[Merlin]

The Pashtuns, at both sides of the Afghan/Pakistan border, are central to the Afghan election. They also mostly form the Talibans.

Pashtun ethnic agenda at heart of Afghan war

17 hrs ago [AP] KABUL — In a recent debate leading up to the presidential elections here, the first question was not about terrorism, or violence, or even opium. It was about how candidates viewed a jagged line casually drawn on a map 115 years ago by British colonial rulers.

For the West, this border separates Afghanistan from Pakistan, and it is a source of great frustration that neither country seems able or even willing to enforce it. But for many Pashtuns, the most powerful ethnic tribe here, the line runs through what they call "Pashtunistan" and is no more legitimate than the border that once divided East and West Germany.

The Pashtuns and their ethnic agenda are in many ways at the center of the upcoming elections and the armed conflicts in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. Like the Pashtun-dominated Taliban, many Pashtuns who have not taken up arms still share the dream of a united Pashtunistan. This dream grows stronger as the Pashtuns on both sides of the border get more disgruntled.

If the Pashtuns vote in large numbers in the Aug. 20 election, it will help current president Hamid Karzai, a Pashtun. If their turnout is low, possibly because of violence or Taliban threats, his rival, former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah, stands a better chance. Although half-Pashtun, Abdullah is identified with the ethnic Tajiks, and some analysts are concerned that Pashtuns would not accept his victory.

"Pashtuns are critical to the Afghan election," says Hassan Abbas, research fellow at Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. "Pashtuns are at the heart of insurgency in both Pakistan and Afghanistan because they have been used and abused in the last three decades by regional as well as international players. Their social fabric has been torn to smithereens and their tribal ethos has been under severe stress and strain due to the rise of fanatical religious elements. Pashtuns today are a victim of circumstances."

The Pashtuns number about 42 million people — 42 percent of the population of Afghanistan and 15 percent in Pakistan. They support and, indeed, largely make up the Taliban. ....

[Merlin]

The US troops will stay low during the election.

US forces fade into background for Afghan election

1 day ago [AP] KANDAHAR, Afghanistan — An Afghan going to the polls in the Aug. 20 presidential election will not see an American or NATO soldier — if all goes according to plan.

Although the number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan has swelled to 62,000 — more than double this time last year — international forces plan to keep a low profile on election day to avoid any suspicion that foreigners are trying to influence the outcome.

Instead, Afghans themselves will protect the voters, with foreign troops standing by. The Taliban have urged voters to boycott the election, raising fears they may attack polling centers to disrupt the ballot.

Nevertheless, NATO and U.S. commanders are keen to avoid any impression that they are orchestrating the process and are willing to step aside and let the Afghans run the show. ....

As part of the lay-low campaign, U.S. commanders here in the Taliban-infested south say they're holding off on any massive new offensives in the area until the voting is over.

The Afghan government delayed the elections by about four months in part to allow time for more U.S. troops to arrive following President Barack Obama's decision to boost American military strength in Afghanistan and push into areas such as Helmand province, which had been in the grip of the Taliban for years.

The August ballot will be the third time Afghans have gone to the polls since the Taliban were ousted from power in 2001 and the second time they have chosen a president. ....

To minimize any appearance of international meddling, foreign forces will stay at least 200 yards (meters) from voting centers and come closer only if Afghan police and soldiers ask for help, according to Noor Mohammad Noor, a spokesman for the Independent Electoral Commission.

Foreign troops will also not transport or guard ballots after the vote, unless called on by the Afghan government, Noor added. In a country with towering mountains, deserts and almost nonexistent roads, the Afghan government will have to move the ballots mostly by car — with the help of three helicopters and more than 3,000 donkeys used to reach remote areas inaccessible even by air, officials said.

[Merlin]

Recruiting 10,000 tribesmen to protect 7,000 polling stations. Only on average 1.5 per station. They are from the communities, and armed.

Afghanistan hires 10,000 tribesmen to secure polls

45 min ago [AP] KABUL — Authorities have hired some 10,000 Afghan tribesmen to protect this month's presidential election, an Afghan official said Tuesday, raising the possibility that village militias could be enlisted to fight against the Taliban.

The hired guns highlight attempts by authorities to bolster security in Afghanistan's insurgency-hit provinces but also underscore a renewed focus on raising tribal militias to deal with the growing Taliban threat just as Sunni Arab militias were engaged to help reduce violence in Iraq. .....

Zemeri Bashary, the Interior Ministry spokesman, said the new force will not be armed by authorities or given uniforms, but they will carry weapons. They will only assist the security forces in the areas where they live, Bashary said.

The community-based force has echoes in the American military's efforts in Iraq to form alliances with Sunni Arab tribesmen. .....

The members of the new Afghan force have been hired from the communities where they will serve, and will be paid $160 monthly for their work, Noorzai said.

Afghan election officials have provided security forces with a list of some 7,000 polling centers where voting should take place. Security forces have not yet determined how many of those centers can be secured on polling day. Hundreds are likely to remain shut because of fears of violence.

Almost all problematic polling centers are in areas where the largest ethnic group, Pashtuns, live. Low turnout in such areas could harm President Hamid Karzai, himself a Pashtun. Karzai is the leading candidate in opinion polls, and most observers expect him to win a second five-year term. ....

[Merlin]

Election debate is also being held in afghanistan.

RFE/RL to Host Historic Afghan Presidential Debate

12 Aug [RFERL] (KABUL, Afghanistan) On Sunday, August 16, RFE/RL's Radio Free Afghanistan, known locally as Radio Azadi, is hosting the first and only debate featuring President Hamid Karzai and his two main challengers in the August 20 presidential election.

Radio Azadi Director Akbar Ayazi will moderate the discussion between President Karzai, Ashraf Ghani, and Abdullah Abdullah. ....

The groundbreaking event will take place in Kabul at 5:30pm (9am ET) in front of a studio audience and be broadcast live throughout Afghanistan on Radio Azadi and televised on Afghanistan's state television channel RTA as well as other local and international media. ....