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  • #31
    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    The ISI hands a bomb made from Pakistani uranium to Al Qaeda, the US nukes Islamabad. The ISI hands a bomb made from Chinese uranium to Al Qaeda, the US nukes Beijing. The Chinese ain't that stupid.
    But the bomb was never intended for USA. The obvious target is India.

    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    India went nuke in 1974. The Chinese was staring down 20,000+ nukes at the same time period. Can the Chinese afford to shift one or two nuke from their 12 down south ... or give Pakistan the ability to take care of Indian nukes without shifting a Chinese nuke elsewhere.

    This being said, it was an extremely idiotic, stupid, moronic, up-the-ying-yang-f_uck-up, bent-over-and-suck-your-own-stick, kiss-ass, clownass decision.

    And the Chinese are paying for it now.
    Sir,
    How?
    Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie!'...till you can find a rock. ;)

    Comment


    • #32
      Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
      The ISI hands a bomb made from Pakistani uranium to Al Qaeda, the US nukes Islamabad. The ISI hands a bomb made from Chinese uranium to Al Qaeda, the US nukes Beijing. The Chinese ain't that stupid.

      .
      What if they nuke India,India can hardly nuke Beijing in response can she? So why not help Pakistan target India as AQ Khan said China did do?

      As for why China helped Pakistan..I see that everyone wonders about that just like me.It made and still makes no sense except an extremely short sighted one in the 70's.

      Comment


      • #33
        Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
        India went nuke in 1974. The Chinese was staring down 20,000+ nukes at the same time period. Can the Chinese afford to shift one or two nuke from their 12 down south ... or give Pakistan the ability to take care of Indian nukes without shifting a Chinese nuke elsewhere.
        Sir,
        India was hardly a nuclear power that could threaten China in 1974 . India didnt have any nuke delivery platforms that can reach Chinese cities till mid 1990's. Even during the worst case scenario,( Russian attack ), I am not able to envisage a situation where they would had to shift a nuke or two to southern borders.
        Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie!'...till you can find a rock. ;)

        Comment


        • #34
          Col,

          Seriously no one has talked of the American involvement in this whole thing or the lack of it.
          Its short sighted policy during the cold war and the war in Afghanistan against the Soviets led to to turn a blind eye on proliferation.
          Now it has a new excuse and guess who is the excuse this time? Afghanistan again. The US continues to blink at the activities of Pakistan and showers it with Aid all used to fund its bomb and other aggressive military activities. It had to rush to the IMF to avoid default of payments but it has no problem investing in three Pu reactors at the cost of billions.

          The only reason why the Dutch intel was in a hurry to hide the letter was to make sure it doesnt get into the open and incriminate the Pakistani establishment. The US did show bravado in the earlier stages by threatening to "Bomb back to stone age" and "you are either with us or them" lines. But the fact remains that it was Pakistan that threatened and played with the US and continues to do so.

          What they also wanted to hide is the fact that their own agencies winked when AQ was getting nuke material and know how from NATO countries. That would be more damaging than anything else. The Dutch,British and German connection in the whole proliferation activity would have been not a major embarrasment for them, but a slap on their face for preaching non proliferation.

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          • #35
            Originally posted by hammer View Post
            But the bomb was never intended for USA. The obvious target is India.
            Then, India can legitimately state that it was a Chinese nuclear attack.

            Originally posted by hammer View Post
            How?
            You mean paying for it? A nuclear arsenal that she now has to secure not only against terrorists but from the Pakistanis themselves.

            Comment


            • #36
              Originally posted by hammer View Post
              India was hardly a nuclear power that could threaten China in 1974 .
              Check the timelines. The decision to aide Pakistan was 1982.

              Originally posted by hammer View Post
              India didnt have any nuke delivery platforms that can reach Chinese cities till mid 1990's.
              Sure, you did. It's called cargo planes.

              Originally posted by hammer View Post
              Even during the worst case scenario,( Russian attack ), I am not able to envisage a situation where they would had to shift a nuke or two to southern borders.
              Look at it from the Chinese PoV. 200 immediate nukes up north, 4-12 nukes down south. By giving Pakistan the nuke, that 4-12 nukes down south just disappearred since they now must take care of Pakistan first.

              Comment


              • #37
                Originally posted by Yusuf View Post
                Seriously no one has talked of the American involvement in this whole thing or the lack of it.

                ...


                What they also wanted to hide is the fact that their own agencies winked when AQ was getting nuke material and know how from NATO countries. That would be more damaging than anything else. The Dutch,British and German connection in the whole proliferation activity would have been not a major embarrasment for them, but a slap on their face for preaching non proliferation.
                I need to read up on this angle but as far as funding is concerned, Western aide is not directly tied to anything nuclear. Now, it may be that it freed up Pakistani funds to do as they please but every penny is being accounted for.

                Comment


                • #38
                  Lanzhou Nuclear Fuel Complex

                  Located 25 km northeast of Lanzhou, Gansu Province (103.41E/36.03N).

                  URANIUM CONVERSION FACILITY -- CLOSED

                  The facility converts uranium using the UF6 process. The facility's start-up occurred in 1980, and had a capacity of 1,000 tons per year.

                  LANZHOU GASEOUS DIFFUSION PLANT (GDP) -- CLOSED

                  OTHER NAMES: Uranium Enrichment Plant, Plant 504, the Lanzhou Uranium Enrichment Plant

                  The GDP became operational in 1964 and for many years was China's main site for highly enriched uranium (HEU) production for nuclear weapons. GDP uses the gaseous diffusion technique for uranium enrichment. The facility was initially constructed with some Soviet assistance which promptly stopped following the Sino-Soviet split in 1960. In the early 1970s, the plant reportedly had a 150-330 kg per year production capacity which likely increased later through modification. In the 1970s, China built a second facility for uranium enrichment in Heping (Sichuan Province), in case the Lanzhou facility was destroyed during an attack.

                  The Lanzhou GDP began commercial operation in 1980 and until 1997 produced low enriched uranium (LEU) for the 300 MW PWR at Qinshan. China stopped its production of HEU in 1989. As of 1996, the GDP was reportedly operating at 98 percent of design capacity. According to the IAEA, the plant had a capacity of 500,000 SWU/year.

                  In mid 1997, Chinese officials decided to shut down the Lanzhou enrichment facility due to its inefficient reliance on a large hydroelectric plant for electricity generation and the availability of more advanced enrichment technologies (such as gas centrifuges) from Russia. In June 1999, Chinese officials decided to decommission the Lanzhou facility and agreed to treat large amounts of high level radioactive for eventual disposal. This decision was ordained by Premier Zhu Rongji and was a consequence of two actions: the restructuring and streamlining of China's nuclear industry and the decision to construct a new and very large uranium enrichment facility using Russian gas centrifuges at a site 25 km north of Lanzhou. This facility will reportedly have a capacity of 500,000 SWU/y and is the third phase of a ongoing Sino-Russian project begun in 1992 to build several gas centrifuge facilities. The first two facilities in the Sino-Russian project are being constructed near Hanzhong in southern Shaanxi province. The decision to decommission the Lanzhou facility was reportedly made at the same time as the decision to re-locate the third phase facility. New reports also indicated that China moved the third phase plan to Lanzhou from Hanzhong in order to prevent layoffs at the Lanzhou site. This new facility, once construction is complete, will have a larger HEU capacity than the first two facility located at Hanzhong. (See Uranium Enrichment) [Mark Hibbs, "China said to be preparing for decommissioning defense plants," Nuclear Fuel, 5/17/99, p. 11; Mark Hibbs, "China moved centrifuge complex to keep enriching U at Lanzhou", Nuclear Fuel, 5/17/99, pp. 11-12.]
                  This is from the same link OOE Sir gave. Not very sure if it's under IAEA or since when. Was trying to find that out.

                  However IAEA safeguards differ from fullscope to just inspections. So it seems that if a plant is under IAEA safeguards it does not imply a fullscope monitoring. Will appreciate to stand corrected on same if incorrect.

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Now it has a new excuse and guess who is the excuse this time? Afghanistan again. The US continues to blink at the activities of Pakistan and showers it with Aid all used to fund its bomb and other aggressive military activities. It had to rush to the IMF to avoid default of payments but it has no problem investing in three Pu reactors at the cost of billions.

                    Good points Yusuf sir. I recently read how the Pakistani Army gives it's budget to the civilian govt. This time they gave it in 2 pages of paper. Normally it's on a single sheet and a few lines. In Musharaffs time and before the US did give almost a blank check. Will post relevent links on this.

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                      I need to read up on this angle but as far as funding is concerned, Western aide is not directly tied to anything nuclear. Now, it may be that it freed up Pakistani funds to do as they please but every penny is being accounted for.
                      Sir the good old pet General of the west claimed as much recently. He may have back tracked later, but the damage was done. He was clearly stating what is very well known.

                      Sir, you said that it's possible that aid Pakistan got freed up it's own money, well Sir they didn't have their own money. It runs to lenders to avoid default.

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Nuclear power plants have 3 choices.

                        1) Continued operations as long as it's feasible.
                        2) Control shut down in which case, the plant is nothing more than a monument
                        3) Three Mile Island/Cheyrnoble

                        The Pakistani claims to modernize is at least feasible if not legitimate. If the equipment is getting obsolete, for safety concerns, you have to modernize and it may be cheaper to modernize than to control shut down.

                        No one wants #3, not even India.

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                          Nuclear power plants have 3 choices.

                          1) Continued operations as long as it's feasible.
                          2) Control shut down in which case, the plant is nothing more than a monument
                          3) Three Mile Island/Cheyrnoble

                          The Pakistani claims to modernize is at least feasible if not legitimate. If the equipment is getting obsolete, for safety concerns, you have to modernize and it may be cheaper to modernize than to control shut down.

                          No one wants #3, not even India.
                          Col.

                          Why would no. 3 be undesirable for India, aside from a human cost point of view? What else? I don't think fallout is an issue, so is it the fear of nuclear material falling in the hands of bad guys?

                          Also, wouldn't any "modernization" be done under the supervision of the IAEA?
                          "Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able? Then he is not omnipotent. Is he able, but not willing? Then he is malevolent. Is he both able and willing? Then whence cometh evil? Is he neither able nor willing? Then why call him God?" ~ Epicurus

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Originally posted by antimony View Post
                            Why would no. 3 be undesirable for India, aside from a human cost point of view? What else? I don't think fallout is an issue, so is it the fear of nuclear material falling in the hands of bad guys?
                            If bad guys are willing to get glowing green hot while digging latrines, all the power to them.

                            The fall out issue is really weather dependent. If you have a good wind coming off the Indian ocean and depending on they hit the Himalayas, odds are good that India herself would be affected. If during the monsoon season, the effects would be much more localized and much more devastating locally, the ground water would be irradiated.

                            However, the refugee crisis this would generate would most certainly overwhelm Islamabad. You have to move an entire population out of the most lethal of areas and watch as increasing cancer and sterility comes into play in the outer surrounding areas.

                            In short, you will have a population migration and anytime that has happened in history, it was never good.

                            Let's put it this way, how good is the Indian Army at stopping a refugee exodus?

                            Originally posted by antimony View Post
                            Also, wouldn't any "modernization" be done under the supervision of the IAEA?
                            As Yusuf aluded to, there are enough loop holes to skirt around the IAEA if Pakistan is so determined. Much issue has been of Chinese ring magnets to Pakistan without putting in context that Pakistan stated that they're buying them for power generation, not nuclear power.

                            When you have dual use equipment, it is hard at times to know when you are crossing the nuclear trade threshold.

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Will Doctor AQ Khan PLEASE get your story straight?!?!?!

                              From Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan Discusses Nuclear Program in TV Talk Show

                              [Malik] When did you come to believe that now you had the weapons-grade uranium?

                              [Khan] In Kahuta, we achieved 60 percent result in our enrichment program; it was a very difficult task though. We faced a lot of challenges in the ensuing stages but successfully managed to overcome them, and we had achieved 90 percent result in the //enrichment// program by the early 1983.

                              [Malik] So when was the bomb ready?

                              [Khan] It was ready by 1984. I wrote a letter to Gen Zia on 10 December 1984, telling him that the weapon was ready and that we could detonate it on a notice of one week.

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Originally posted by bugs View Post
                                Fox news really likes science fiction i presume...
                                Fox News also likes to fabricate stuff.

                                First check this out:
                                YouTube - Indian Crazy Missile Technology Ha Ha Ha

                                Then, compare the rocket you just saw with this one:
                                YouTube - WW II : RARE COLOR FILM : NAZI V2 ROCKET FACILITY

                                Least said about the person who posted the first video on YouTube. :P
                                Last edited by MrigKash; 15 Nov 09,, 23:47.
                                Schluß und Tschüß
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