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Anyone Read "The Next 100 Years" By George Freidman?

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  • Anyone Read "The Next 100 Years" By George Freidman?

    IIRC, the founder of STRATFOR wrote this book.

    I haven't read it in complete detail yet but he does make some intriguing predictions.

    1) He dismisses the "rise of China" as being unlikely.

    2) He forsees a new Cold War with the Russians that ultimately hurts the Russians far worse than the end of the first Cold War did.

    3) He sees the rise of Poland as the primary continental European ally of the U.S.

    4) He sees a "World War" around 2050 featuring the U.S. and Poland squaring off against Turkey (the leader of the Middle Eastern world) and Japan. With Japan attacking U.S. facilities in space and launching facilities in the U.S. while Turkey attacks Poland and its close allies on the ground. Germany later joins in against Poland.

    5) Finally, he sees the 21st century ending with a confrontation, political, economic, and possibly military between the U.S. and a Mexico rising steadily in wealth and population for the role of leadership of North America.

    He does a good job explaining his predictions. Basing them all heavily on geography, demographics, and previous history.

  • #2
    I think his scenarios are unlikely in the extreme. He was way off the mark in his Coming War With Japan. He assumed that the trade disputes between the US and Japan would remain constant, and boil over into war and competition for hegemony. 17 years later nothing he predicted has come to pass.

    Demographically Japan can't stomach much of a fight, in my opinion. Already they're suffering from population loss, a death rate higher than their birth rate, and a fertility rate almost down to half of replacement level. This is a trend seen in all industrialized, high-income countries. What is his demographic argument here? I'll doubt looking forward in 1992 he even foresaw the stagnation of the Japanese economy for the next decade -- or the most massive economic contraction it's suffered since the end of WWII just a few months back.

    I think the this excerpt from the official review on Amazon sums it up aptly:
    Friedman is well aware that much of what he predicts will be wrong--unforeseeable events are, of course, unforeseen
    "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

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    • #3
      Heard of it. Sounds a 'lil bit ambitious. Maybe my dad will buy it, he went to high school with the guy.
      I enjoy being wrong too much to change my mind.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Ironduke View Post
        I think his scenarios are unlikely in the extreme. He was way off the mark in his Coming War With Japan. He assumed that the trade disputes between the US and Japan would remain constant, and boil over into war and competition for hegemony. 17 years later nothing he predicted has come to pass.

        Demographically Japan can't stomach much of a fight, in my opinion. Already they're suffering from population loss, a death rate higher than their birth rate, and a fertility rate almost down to half of replacement level. This is a trend seen in all industrialized, high-income countries. What is his demographic argument here? I'll doubt looking forward in 1992 he even foresaw the stagnation of the Japanese economy for the next decade -- or the most massive economic contraction it's suffered since the end of WWII just a few months back.

        I think the this excerpt from the official review on Amazon sums it up aptly:
        I agree with Ironduke on this, once I got to the Japan part I started smiling, just do not see it happening. I will try to get my hand on a copy, and find out what some of the arguments are, it sounds like possibly interesting reading, just not plausible to me. But then again all kinds of strange things have happen in History.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Dayton3 View Post
          IIRC, the founder of STRATFOR wrote this book.

          I haven't read it in complete detail yet but he does make some intriguing predictions.

          1) He dismisses the "rise of China" as being unlikely.

          2) He forsees a new Cold War with the Russians that ultimately hurts the Russians far worse than the end of the first Cold War did.

          3) He sees the rise of Poland as the primary continental European ally of the U.S.

          4) He sees a "World War" around 2050 featuring the U.S. and Poland squaring off against Turkey (the leader of the Middle Eastern world) and Japan. With Japan attacking U.S. facilities in space and launching facilities in the U.S. while Turkey attacks Poland and its close allies on the ground. Germany later joins in against Poland.

          5) Finally, he sees the 21st century ending with a confrontation, political, economic, and possibly military between the U.S. and a Mexico rising steadily in wealth and population for the role of leadership of North America.

          He does a good job explaining his predictions. Basing them all heavily on geography, demographics, and previous history.
          Why would Turkey fight Poland or the US, even if it became the leader of the Islamic World, which I don't think will be the case? Doesn't make any sense, I haven't read his book but it seems to me that he thinks that history allways repeats itself.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Hitman817 View Post
            Why would Turkey fight Poland or the US, even if it became the leader of the Islamic World, which I don't think will be the case? Doesn't make any sense, I haven't read his book but it seems to me that he thinks that history allways repeats itself.
            He sees Turkey as being the inevitable leader of the Middle East given its strategic position, the rise then fall of Russian power, Turkey having the only truly modern economy in the Muslim world, not to mention having a history of big power interests.

            Regarding Japan, Freidman regards Japan being forced by circumstances (lack of resources and declining population) to become militaristic again or risk suffering severely economically).

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            • #7
              Great analysis indeed.
              Did he speculate anything about a resurgent Indonesia attacking and overwhelming Australia. ;)
              sigpicAnd on the sixth day, God created the Field Artillery...

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              • #8
                He sees a "World War" around 2050 featuring the U.S. and Poland squaring off against Turkey (the leader of the Middle Eastern world)
                Goddamn Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and their winged Hussars...
                To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

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                • #9
                  US and Poland vs Turkey.


                  Gallant Polish hussars on winged pigs, anyone?

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                  • #10
                    One thing I like about the book is that he dispels a lot of the so called "Chinawank" where lately you have every analyst and his brother talking about China being the inevitable next superpower.

                    Freidman points out well China's geographic isolation and the historic stresses in Chinese society between coastal and inland regions.

                    Freidman also seems to get at something people seldom consider.

                    Russia, Japan, and various other "modern nations" are headed for major demographic problems in this century.

                    Do we really expect those nations to sit back and slide into impotentcy while doing nothing?

                    That is one thing that drives many of the nations in Freidmans analysis. A desire to avoid creeping decline.

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                    • #11
                      I agree with Ironduke's analysis. Japan is low on population and a rapidly aging population at that. Wars need people. Japan simply does not have enough young men to wage war against a country with huge population like the US. At least not without a significant advantage in technology.

                      Mexico will continue to be a basketcase, but not a military threat. I do see the Mexican government asking for some military help to combat the drug cartels along the border states.
                      "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

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                      • #12
                        it's good for a laugh.
                        There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by gunnut View Post
                          I agree with Ironduke's analysis. Japan is low on population and a rapidly aging population at that. Wars need people. Japan simply does not have enough young men to wage war against a country with huge population like the US. At least not without a significant advantage in technology.
                          .
                          Of course then again, Japan did not have the population or the technology to wage a successful war against the U.S. in World War II either.

                          and people like Admiral Yamamato knew that and warned against it.

                          But wars historically are seldom fought by a nation because they think they can win.

                          Wars tend to be fought for internal reasons that have little relevance to actual tactical situation and strategic realities.

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                          • #14
                            dayton,

                            But wars historically are seldom fought by a nation because they think they can win.
                            constructivism is generally not acknowledged as a replacement for realism in international affairs. there is an influence but it is not a replacement.

                            in short, yes, usually the aggressor nation fights because they think they can win.
                            There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by astralis View Post
                              dayton,



                              constructivism is generally not acknowledged as a replacement for realism in international affairs. there is an influence but it is not a replacement.

                              in short, yes, usually the aggressor nation fights because they think they can win.
                              I do not agree with that.

                              I can't think of many wars waged in the 20th century where the aggressor nations looking at the situation objectively had a realistic chance of military victory.

                              They might've figured on "political victories" but not on military ones.

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