View Poll Results: Who do you think will win the 2009 General Elections in India ???

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  • BJP + Allies

    11 45.83%
  • Congress + Allies

    12 50.00%
  • Third Front (Mayawati, Commies et al)

    1 4.17%
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Thread: Elections 2009 in India

  1. #31
    Senior Contributor Knaur Amarsh's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gokul View Post
    The President appoints the Election Commissioners and the Chief Election Commissioner. This means that the process is already possibly biased since the President listens to the ruling party (dissolving state assemblies in the middle of the night et al)

    I fear this system might be misused by the ruling parties to get their own favourable candidates... just getting 2 candidates inside is enough, they will have majority and push through the ruling party's agenda...
    You are only going to get round and round in circles with that argument, it can only be hoped that people appointed to posts like the President, Supreme Court judges, Governers, Speaker of the parliament, Election Comissioners, members of UPSC etc. will be impartial and incorruptible and that the consitutional bodies with a system of checks and balances will keep each other in order, there is no other alternative.
    When our perils are past, shall our gratitude sleep? - George Canning

  2. #32
    Senior Contributor Knaur Amarsh's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by devgupt View Post
    South India will hold the key.
    AIADMK,PMK,MDMK- this alliance looks formidable and though they are with left today we all know how strong their ideological commitment are.
    The strength of TDP and PrajaRajyam will also be a deciding factor.
    Mate, UP alone has more more seats than all of South India, why would AIADMK,PMK,MDMK etc. hold any more sway than SP, BSP etc.?
    When our perils are past, shall our gratitude sleep? - George Canning

  3. #33
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    You are correct that UP alone has 80.
    But I suggest you look at this statistic-for the last 2 elections-the party which has lost UP has formed the government at Center-1999- BJP had won 27 seats out of then 85 seats of united UP and in 2004 Congress has won mere 10.And when Left supported Congress it got majority even without Samajwadi's party's support.
    On the contrary the party which has won Tamil Nadu has ruled India- this has been happening in every election since 1991.And PMK had been part of every government since 1998.u can check it.

    Actaully there are 3 poles in country -NDA,UPA and the third front.
    2 of them have to come together or one has to crack.which one has the possibility of cracking most-third front.And who are most likely to crack- the name of the parties I mentioned.And Prajarajyam in Andhra is a dark horse.
    NDA needs to win around 250.the rest will be done by these parties

  4. #34
    Senior Contributor Knaur Amarsh's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by devgupt View Post
    You are correct that UP alone has 80.
    But I suggest you look at this statistic-for the last 2 elections-the party which has lost UP has formed the government at Center-1999- BJP had won 27 seats out of then 85 seats of united UP and in 2004 Congress has won mere 10.
    Neither Cong nor BJP are major players in UP as everyone is well aware, its the seats of SP and BSP which matter more, if either get substantial seats and give internal support to either party, which they didnt in the last elections, then it ll become way easier for that party form the Union govt.


    And when Left supported Congress it got majority even without Samajwadi's party's support.
    On the contrary the party which has won Tamil Nadu has ruled India- this has been happening in every election since 1991.And PMK had been part of every government since 1998.u can check it.
    No need to check, I ll take your word for it )

    Actaully there are 3 poles in country -NDA,UPA and the third front.
    2 of them have to come together or one has to crack.which one has the possibility of cracking most-third front.And who are most likely to crack- the name of the parties I mentioned.And Prajarajyam in Andhra is a dark horse.
    NDA needs to win around 250.the rest will be done by these parties
    Well the thing is, most alliances in India are opportunistic in nature, pre-poll alliances become less significant in the chaos of seat sharing following the results. Not saying you're wrong of course, but the third front and external support of allies is too unpredictable and winning 250 on their own with SP, BSP, RJD and possibly the left going with UPA could be a tall order for NDA + Allies.
    When our perils are past, shall our gratitude sleep? - George Canning

  5. #35
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    So what about Madhya Pradesh who had got a strong hold this time?

  6. #36
    Senior Contributor Knaur Amarsh's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by payeng View Post
    So what about Madhya Pradesh who had got a strong hold this time?
    BJP, Diggi Raja's days on top are over, Scindia doesnt have the ground level appeal of Chauhan, BJP swept most seats last time, and in the state elections they were elected for the second time last year winning with ease, so I don't see why it should be much different for LS this time. IMO Congress and others can barely get half a dozen seats at best.
    When our perils are past, shall our gratitude sleep? - George Canning

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Knaur Amarsh View Post
    BJP, Diggi Raja's days on top are over, Scindia doesnt have the ground level appeal of Chauhan, BJP swept most seats last time, and in the state elections they were elected for the second time last year winning with ease, so I don't see why it should be much different for LS this time. IMO Congress and others can barely get half a dozen seats at best.
    Thanks for the information Sir.

  8. #38
    Senior Contributor Knaur Amarsh's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by payeng View Post
    Thanks for the information Sir.
    Which state are you in at the moment? Whats the seat distribution looking like there mate?
    When our perils are past, shall our gratitude sleep? - George Canning

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Knaur Amarsh View Post
    Which state are you in at the moment? Whats the seat distribution looking like there mate?
    Currently I am in Bangalore, Karnataka but more I have Idea about my home state Assam.

    In Assam Congress have got a strong hold, two major parties in Assam are the Congress(national) and the AGP(regional)-Assam Gana Parashad however AGP had split up in to two and AGP don't seems to have the strength it had possessed in the past, to over come this weakness AGP had made an alliance with BJP to fight elections, in some Constituencies AGP seat are projected while some with BJP seat.

    Congress party have more popular leader/politicians while BJP have a few celebrity faces like Bhupen Hazarika. As a whole non congress political parties are loosing ground in Assam.

    The present representation from these 14 Constituencies
    are congress=9
    BJP=2
    AGP=2
    Independent=1

    I think there wouldn't be drastic change in the upcoming general election since AGP are no popular now-a-days and BJP have less influence in Assam.

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