Korean conflict renewal

[reve893]

Recently North Korea has been more aggressive toward South Korea. Leading many to wonder if North Korea is getting ready for war. South Korea has embraced capitalism and has one of the strongest and technological economies in the world. If North Korea was to invade South Korea who would win? Would the US be involved? and if so to what extent? Would the South Koreans be ready to abandon their materialistic lifestyle for a huge war?

[bugs]

No way..
North korea is a peace loving socialist republic...:)

[BudW]

Of course the USA would be involved, N.Korea after some early gains would be crushed.

[Inst]

The norks are supposed to have a ton of artillery pointed at Seoul. The North Koreans can't win, but it won't be a cakewalk for the South Koreans either.

[Kernow]

I believe that it would be a real scrap, but the outcome would in favour of the South. They have the worlds largest standing Army, whereas the North are fifth. The equipment of the South is far more advanced, and there Tank fleet is vast (2,872), being replaced by the 'Black Panther'. The Navy of the North is large but obsolete. mThe North have more aircraft (1,700), but again an aging fleet, whereas the South has a fleet of 600+, their aircraft air far more advanced. It is rumoured that the North has at least 3 Nuclear Missile War Heads. It has 600 - 700 missiles already facing the South; and yes unfortunately the US would be dragged into the fight as they are already there. They couldn't bolster the forces there because of commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan; perhaps that why the North is Sabre Rattling!!!!!

[zraver]

I believe that it would be a real scrap, but the outcome would in favour of the South. They have the worlds largest standing Army, whereas the North are fifth. The equipment of the South is far more advanced, and there Tank fleet is vast (2,872), being replaced by the 'Black Panther'. The Navy of the North is large but obsolete. mThe North have more aircraft (1,700), but again an aging fleet, whereas the South has a fleet of 600+, their aircraft air far more advanced. It is rumoured that the North has at least 3 Nuclear Missile War Heads. It has 600 - 700 missiles already facing the South; and yes unfortunately the US would be dragged into the fight as they are already there. They couldn't bolster the forces there because of commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan; perhaps that why the North is Sabre Rattling!!!!!

NK would burn Seoul to the ground, they might even occupy it for a short time. But that is as far as they go. Then they get pushed back. They are outmanned, outgunned, out supplied and out allied. The US could have 3-4 divisions there in side of a couple of weeks, the first marine units and airborne units within days. With elements of the 3rd AD, and 25th Inf enroute from Washington and Hawaia along with more marines from 29 palms. The commitments in Afghanistan and Iraq are not all that large.

Plus I think NK would end up getting corn holed by the PLA.

[GC13]

I was under the impression that third-world militaries (such as North Korea) traditionally had a disproportionate focus on their combat power with an atrophied logistics system. That would set them up for the ability to make a terrific first strike against the South, but it would have to be a good one as any protracted struggle would play to their weakness. And considering world support for South Korea... It would become a protracted struggle.

[Skywatcher]

NK would burn Seoul to the ground, they might even occupy it for a short time. But that is as far as they go. Then they get pushed back. They are outmanned, outgunned, out supplied and out allied. The US could have 3-4 divisions there in side of a couple of weeks, the first marine units and airborne units within days. With elements of the 3rd AD, and 25th Inf enroute from Washington and Hawaia along with more marines from 29 palms. The commitments in Afghanistan and Iraq are not all that large.

Plus I think NK would end up getting corn holed by the PLA.

The Norks wrecking the already bad economy in North Asia would probably push Beijing into military intervention, only this time, the PLA is on our side.

[HKDan]

I in no way see this as anything more than an attempt by the Norks to get themselves some attention in the only way they know how. I increasingly have doubts about the ability of NKPA to conduct anything other than the most rudimentary operations, they have simply been too broke for too long. On the other hand, playing devil's advocate, maybe the North sees this is the last real chance they might have to start something. The global economy is in crisis, both the US and South Korea hit particularly badly. The US is heavily committed elsewhere, although this is primarily in the Army and USMC. A few years from now, with an economic recovery and the US largely out of Iraq the odds will be worse for the North. Maybe they realize that the other side is more vulnerable right now than it usually is, decide that this is the best opportunity they are likely to see.

[devgupt]

I had read a novel 'Third World War' by HUmphrey Hawksley (He was a BBC journalist).In the fictitous novel , the Pakistanis and North Koreans join hands to change the world order.
DPRK makes some aggressive moves and this tests the US-South Korea relationship.During a meeting between South Korean PM and American President, the S Korean PM asks America to stay away directly from conflict. He also mentions that DPRK will not use nukes against South Korea beause they are Koreans too.

Was the author correct in this assesment?
In a war involving two Koreas only will DPRk use nukes?

[HKDan]

I think Kim has shown the world pretty clearly how he feels about the lives of his fellow Koreans. I dont think the argument that Kim wont use nukes on the South because they are Koreans holds water.

[HKDan]

Study: 460,000 Troops Needed if N. Korea Collapses
By AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
Published: 28 Jan 21:51 EST (02:51 GMT)
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WASHINGTON - The United States and its allies might have to deploy up to 460,000 soldiers to North Korea to stabilize the country if it collapses and an insurgency erupts, a private U.S. study said Jan. 28.

The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) think tank outlined what amounted to a worst-case scenario in the event the country descends into total chaos and foreign troops intervene after a failed succession upon Kim Jong-Il's death.
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The South Korean agency Yonhap, quoting "well-informed intelligence sources," reported this month that Kim, 66, had named his third son, Kim Jong-Un, 24, as successor. Kim is reported to have suffered a stroke in August.

In its 37-page report entitled "Preparing for Sudden Change in North Korea," the influential New York think tank outlined scenarios based on whether the succession is managed, contested or has failed.

"North Korea abuts two great powers - China and Russia - that have important interests at stake in the future of the peninsula. That they would become actively engaged in any future crisis involving North Korea is virtually guaranteed," the CFR said.

The report did not rule out military intervention by foreign powers.

"The prospect of North Korea being absorbed by South Korea and U.S. forces potentially being deployed near China's northeastern border are matters of acute concern," the report said.

"The same fears helped trigger China's entry into the Korean War. Moscow undoubtedly shares many of Beijing's concerns, though Russia appears less poised to intervene should the situation deteriorate," it added.

Foreign military intervention could create another dynamic.

"If former elements of the North Korean military, its security and intelligence forces, or its large special operations force were to resist the presence of foreign forces, the size of the needed stabilization force would escalate dramatically," it said.

"In an insurgency, according to a Defense Science Board study, as many as twenty occupying troops are needed for every thousand persons, implying a force of 460,000 troops," it said.

It pointed out such a force would be more than three times the number of U.S. troops in Iraq.

"Coping with such a contingency would likely be impossible for the South Korean and American forces to manage alone," it added.

The report also raised concerns about North Korea's stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear, biological, and chemical programs.

North Korea tested a nuclear device in 2006 but it has since been pursuing difficult negotiations with the United States, China, South Korea, Japan and Russia to scrap the nuclear programs.

"A possible breakdown over North Korea's stockpile of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) would likely provide even stronger pressures to intervene," it said.

"If the cohesion of the military were to begin to fray, preventing leaking of WMDs, materials and technologies beyond the North's borders would become an urgent priority," it said.

"Although neighboring states share a common interest in preventing such leakage, serious differences could still arise over the necessity and execution of any military operation designed to secure WMDs," it said.

As succession talk increases, the report urged close cooperation between the United States, China and other players in the region to help avert the worst.

[Johnny W]

I think Kim has shown the world pretty clearly how he feels about the lives of his fellow Koreans. I dont think the argument that Kim wont use nukes on the South because they are Koreans holds water.

I think the main question about Kim is his sanity, and that of the other top leaders in NK. Killing South Koreans will not stop him from using Nukes, its the probability that he will likely die from the US response. If North Korea nukes South Korea, the US might respond by nuking Pyongyang, but I think its highly likely they try to find Kim's location and nuke him as well. If he really is as nuts as some think, then he might not care. If on the other hand, he is somewhat sane and doesn't want to die from a nuclear bunker buster, then I don't think he would be willing to use Nukes on SK.

[Dreadnought]

No way..
North korea is a peace loving socialist republic...:)

You cant be serious?

[bugs]

You cant be serious?

Lets play the devil`s advocate for a while:
South Korea spends 28,940,000,000 usd on the military hardware (2.7 % of GDP)
North Korea about 5,500,000,000 usd.
Most of this equipment is obsolete compared to that of the South Korean military and no foreign military troops are stationed in north Korea.