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  • North Korea tears up all peace agreements with South Korea

    SEOUL, South Korea – North Korea warned Sunday that South Korea's confrontational policies may trigger a war on the divided peninsula, a message coming two days after the communist country vowed to abandon all peace agreements with its southern neighbor.

    Relations between the two Koreas have been strained since conservative President Lee Myung-bak took office nearly a year ago in Seoul, pledging to take a harder line on the North. Tension heightened Friday when the North said it was ditching a nonaggression pact and all other peace accords with South Korea.

    The tension may lead to "an unavoidable military conflict and a war," North Korea's main Rodong Sinmun newspaper said in a commentary carried Sunday by the country's official Korean Central News Agency.

    "The policy of confrontation" by the South Korean government is "the very source of military conflicts and war" between the Koreas, it said.

    The North has accused Lee's government of preparing to stage a war, which South Korea denies. Earlier this month, the North's military declared it adopted an "all-out confrontational posture" to defeat any southern aggression.

    In its Friday statement, the North said it would no longer respect a disputed sea border with the South on the west of the peninsula, raising the prospect for a new armed clash in the area — already the scene of bloody naval skirmishes in 1999 and 2002.

    President Lee sought to downplay the statement and called it "not unusual." He indicated his government will wait until the North is ready for talks in good faith.

    A South Korean Defense Ministry official said Sunday that the country's navy remains on alert along the western sea border. The official — speaking on condition of anonymity citing department policy — said the ministry has not detected any unusual movements of the North Korean military.

    The two Koreas technically remain at war because their three-year conflict ended in 1953 with a truce, not a peace treaty. The peninsula remains divided by a heavily fortified border, with tens of thousands of troops stationed on both sides.
    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090201/...koreas_tension

  • #2
    not unusual.

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    • #3
      North Korea says two Koreas on path toward war

      North Korea says two Koreas on path toward war


      SEOUL - North Korea warned on Sunday that the downward spiral of relations with the South has pushed the peninsula to the brink of war, two days after it said it was scrapping all pacts with its rich capitalist neighbor.

      Analysts say the rhetorical volleys are aimed at changing the hardline policies of the South's president and are meant to grab the attention of new U.S. President Barack Obama.

      "The policy of confrontation with the DPRK (North Korea) pursued by the (South Korean) group is ... the very source of military conflicts and war between the North and the South," the North's official KCNA news agency reported a commentary in the communist party newspaper as saying.

      "In Korea in the state of armistice confrontation means escalated tension and it may lead to an uncontrollable and unavoidable military conflict and a war," it said.

      The states, technically still at war because their 1950-53 conflict ended with a cease fire and not a peace treaty, have more than 1 million troops near their border. There are about 28,000 U.S. troops in South Korea to defend the country.

      The North's bureaucracy works slowly to form policy and it may still be trying to figure out its approach with the new Obama team, analysts said, making it easier for Pyongyang to direct its anger at Washington's allies, including Seoul.

      The North in recent months has repeatedly threatened to destroy the conservative government of President Lee Myung-bak, which ended a decade of free-flowing aid to Pyongyang after taking office a year ago.

      Lee's government mostly ignores Pyongyang's taunts.

      "North Korea's escalating threats do not indicate major hostilities are imminent," said Bruce Klingner, an expert on Korean affairs at the Heritage Foundation in Washington.

      "However, they could easily presage another round of tactical naval confrontations with South Korea in the Yellow Sea."

      The two Koreas fought deadly naval skirmishes in disputed Yellow Sea waters off the west coast in 1999 and 2002.

      North Korea has clamped down on it border with the South in recent months and has canceled cooperation deals reached during a period of detente in the past few years before Lee came to power.

      The deals included reunions for separated families and running trains across the heavily guarded border.

      The latest move follows comments by a U.S. national security official that the secretive state's leader, Kim Jong-il, appeared to have rebounded politically from his recent health scare and is making major decisions.

      Kim inspected a military unit and a power plant at the weekend, KCNA said, with Kim noting "the (North) Korean people are ready to flatten even a mountain and empty even a sea at one go when called for by the Party."
      sigpic

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      • #4
        Doesnt North Korea realise that attacking the South would be national suicide?

        Even if they manage to effectivelly flatten large parts of Seoul with artillery the North would die as a nation in the following counterattack. They only have the ability to score a bloody nose to the South in the opening stages of a war but overall the South on its own is able to defeat the North due to its overwhelming technological advantage. The South has the ability to completelly neutralise the Norths navy and air force in less than a week of high intensity warfare. It would end up being the Norths vast infantry forces supported by artillery (that would be ruthlessly hunted down and destroyed) and obsolete artillery vs a heavily mechanised army and a barelly scratched air force and navy, and this is without US support which will definatelly be forthcoming.

        In my opinion the South should call the bluff and launch a preemptive attack using the Norths threats as the context saying that it is under threat from imminent attack. At least that way the war would be mostly fought in the North and North Korea would be forced to use the artillery based near the DMZ to counter the invasion, giving the South and the US the ability to pinpoint and destroy the guns before they can be used to demolish Seoul.

        Once the artillery is gone there is really nothing the North has that can hurt the South except maybe one or two small nukes (that probably dont even work). Using them would be suicide and even someone as demented as 'our great leader' would work that one out.

        By the time the invasion closes in to Pyonyang i guarantee most of the Norths leadership will flee to where they have their fortunes squirreled away (probably to that great retirement home for dictators.. the French Riviera)rather than fight to the last man with the troops in the trenches as they would have the world believe. Once you decapitate the leadership the North will fall, the soldiers and junior/mid ranking officers are simply not conditioned to be able to conduct operations independanly without higher command.
        The best part of repentance is the sin

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        • #5
          Originally posted by chakos View Post
          Doesnt North Korea realise that attacking the South would be national suicide?

          Even if they manage to effectivelly flatten large parts of Seoul with artillery the North would die as a nation in the following counterattack. They only have the ability to score a bloody nose to the South in the opening stages of a war but overall the South on its own is able to defeat the North due to its overwhelming technological advantage. The South has the ability to completelly neutralise the Norths navy and air force in less than a week of high intensity warfare. It would end up being the Norths vast infantry forces supported by artillery (that would be ruthlessly hunted down and destroyed) and obsolete artillery vs a heavily mechanised army and a barelly scratched air force and navy, and this is without US support which will definatelly be forthcoming.

          In my opinion the South should call the bluff and launch a preemptive attack using the Norths threats as the context saying that it is under threat from imminent attack. At least that way the war would be mostly fought in the North and North Korea would be forced to use the artillery based near the DMZ to counter the invasion, giving the South and the US the ability to pinpoint and destroy the guns before they can be used to demolish Seoul.

          Once the artillery is gone there is really nothing the North has that can hurt the South except maybe one or two small nukes (that probably dont even work). Using them would be suicide and even someone as demented as 'our great leader' would work that one out.

          By the time the invasion closes in to Pyonyang i guarantee most of the Norths leadership will flee to where they have their fortunes squirreled away (probably to that great retirement home for dictators.. the French Riviera)rather than fight to the last man with the troops in the trenches as they would have the world believe. Once you decapitate the leadership the North will fall, the soldiers and junior/mid ranking officers are simply not conditioned to be able to conduct operations independanly without higher command.
          Even if all that above were to happen exactly as you predict, the South would still be left with the poverty stricken NK population to deal with. That is a problem it does not want and cannot afford at the moment. According to an article in the Economist last year, despite talk of reunification in the Korean media, the SK government itself sees reunification as economic catastrophe, something to be avoided at the cost of propping up Kim Jong-il

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          • #6
            Reunification hurt Germany economically too. After a short period though the former communists take to capitalism with a passion with the problem taking care of itself in the medium/long term.
            The best part of repentance is the sin

            Comment


            • #7
              My question is, how much involved would the U.S. be with Obama as president and would the Chinese flood over the Yalu River like they did in the 50's?

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              • #8
                Originally posted by erik View Post
                My question is, how much involved would the U.S. be with Obama as president and would the Chinese flood over the Yalu River like they did in the 50's?
                Why would the Chinese do that? Its far more likelly the Chinese would simply close their border, reinforce it and try their best to keep the refugees away.

                China really has no issue with South Korea, the US would be hard pressed finding a reason to stay if the South was to conquer the North. China would have less headaches dealing with an enlarged South as opposed to having to play protector to an unstable North.
                The best part of repentance is the sin

                Comment


                • #9
                  I was just wondering. I really don't know what the Chinese stance is if things got nasty.

                  They have shown before in history to take North Korea and North Vietnam's side, so I was wondering if they would do the same now, or just do what you said.

                  Also, what is the most realistic approach from the U.S.? Air and Navy support?

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by erik View Post
                    Also, what is the most realistic approach from the U.S.? Air and Navy support?
                    The US forces that would be able to respond the fastest would likely be USAF and Navy forces in Japan. The USAF has F-16s at Misawa and F-15s and AWACS at Kadena. The USN has the Seventh Fleet with the USS George Washington at Yokosuka. Whatever the USAF currently has at Anderson Air Base would probably get in the fight in a hurry as well, they have been rotating heavy bombers there and F-22s have been deployed there recently too. The USN would rapidly move additional carriers in, according the the Fleet Response Plan they should be able to have 6 carriers in theater within 30 days. The Air Force could quickly move in whatever additional units were needed. Army and Marine Corps response would be limited by their current commitments, but some units would definitely be involved in a Korean War situation.

                    The North MIGHT be able to throw one hell of a first punch, but after that they would be in very big trouble. China is far more likely to fight against North Korea than on their side. Of course, this most recent noise out of the DPRK is probably as hollow as the rest of the sabre rattling they have done over the past couple of years.

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                    • #11
                      A question, why doesn't the ROKA try a pre-emptive strike against North Korea? The SKers wouldn't be obliged to topple the North Korean regime, only to destroy the North Korean ability to wage war, something like what the United States did to Saddam when he invaded Kuwait.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Inst View Post
                        A question, why doesn't the ROKA try a pre-emptive strike against North Korea? The SKers wouldn't be obliged to topple the North Korean regime, only to destroy the North Korean ability to wage war, something like what the United States did to Saddam when he invaded Kuwait.
                        I think by doing that, as mentioned above by citanon..the South would face responsible for the North people as what the US is doing now spending billions of dollars.
                        sigpic

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                        • #13
                          So, politically speaking, it would be completely infeasible for South Korea to just blow things up and kill soldiers, leaving Kim Jong-il to pick up the pieces?

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                          • #14
                            People, both Beijing or Seoul could kill North Korea without firing one bullet - stop shipping rice.

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                            • #15
                              Another question... what exactly is the rules for Japanese military? Isn't it purely a defensive force and cannot declare war? Just wondering since Japan could get in the mix.

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