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  • Power, and Its Limits

    Power, and Its Limits


    Richard Weitz | Bio | 15 Oct 2008
    World Politics Review

    The Russian government may not yet describe itself as a superpower, but its latest military exercise, "Stability 2008," clearly aims to affirm Russia's global military reach. The exercise's hypothetical scenario posited a local conflict (e.g., over Georgia) that escalates into a world war, pitting Russia and its ally, Belarus, in a conflict with the West in which both sides employ land, air, maritime, and eventually nuclear forces. All three components of Russia's strategic nuclear deterrent (bombers, submarines, and land forces) participated in the maneuvers, which were the largest conducted on Russian territory since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. One Russian commentary on the month-long exercise, which began on Sept. 21, described it as an opportunity for Russia to "prove its Major League status."

    Although the Georgia War has brought the issue to the forefront, Russia's military activities expanded well before this summer's conflict. For several years, Russia's Strategic Missile Forces (SMF) have engaged in an enlarged testing program of the country's land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). The launches aim both to confirm existing missiles' reliability, and to develop new missile and warhead technologies. In August, for instance, the SMF test-launched Russia's main intercontinental ballistic missile, the RS-12M Topol ICBM (NATO codenamed SS-25 Sickle), with a new warhead designed to overcome U.S. missile defenses. Spokesperson Alexander Vovk declared, "An experimental warhead hit a target at a testing range on the Kamchatka peninsula with high precision, demonstrating its capability to deliver pinpoint strikes on well-defended targets."

    In addition to its ICBM deterrent, Russia has been reinvigorating its air-based deterrent recently as well. Since last year, Russian strategic bombers have resumed global patrols, simulating nuclear attacks against the United States and its allies.

    During the Stability 2008 exercises, Russian strategic bombers conducted their first live-fire exercises since the collapse of the Soviet Union. In northern Russia, the Tu-160 White Swan (NATO codename Blackjack) and Tu-95MS Bear-H strategic bombers deployed and launched their maximum combat payload of cruise missiles. Additional Russian combat and support warplanes also participated in the exercise.

    And on Sept. 10, two Russian Tu-160 Blackjack supersonic strategic bombers flew to Venezuela, where they conducted a week of highly publicized exercises before returning to their home base of Engels in central Russia on Sept. 19. Their 16-hour flights were the longest in the history of Russian strategic aviation. The planes carried only dummy warheads on this deployment, as Russian warplanes usually do on exercises.

    Perhaps the most interesting component of Russia's military resurgence, though, is the return of the Russian Navy, which in recent months has conducted exercises in maritime regions unvisited by Russian sailors since Soviet times. During the Georgia War, warships from Russia's Black Sea fleet, based at the Ukrainian port of Sevastopol, deployed along the coast of Georgia's breakaway province of Abkhazia to support Russian ground and air operations. After NATO warships entered the Black Sea to provide humanitarian assistance to the Georgian government, Russian Adm. Eduard Baltin boasted that the Russian Navy could destroy the NATO naval contingent within 20 minutes. President Dmitry Medvedev, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, and other Russian leaders expressed concerns that the NATO ships were actually delivering weapons to Georgia under the guise of providing humanitarian assistance.

    Following Ukrainian protests and a reaffirmation of Ukraine's intent to end Russia's lease on its Sevastopol naval base in 2017, a Russian Navy commander expressed interest in acquiring new bases in the Mediterranean Sea. Those would more than compensate for the loss of the Sevastopol base by providing the Russian fleet with a new presence in an important region of the world. The Soviet Navy had a limited flotilla in the Mediterranean, but Russian Federation warships have rarely deployed there. In addition to the Black Sea Fleet, the Russian Navy comprises the Northern Fleet, the Pacific Fleet, the Baltic Fleet, the Caspian Flotilla, Naval Aviation, Naval Infantry (marines), and coastal artillery.

    On Sept. 22, meanwhile, two of the Russian Navy's newest warships -- the Pyotr Veliky ("Peter the Great"), a nuclear-powered guided missile heavy cruiser, and the Admiral Chabanenko, an anti-submarine warfare ship -- ostentatiously left their base in northern Russia, along with several escort ships. The task force is spending several weeks in the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean before engaging in joint military exercises with the Venezuelan Navy from Nov. 10-14. In describing the deployment, spokesman Igor Dygalo affirmed that, "The Navy remains a serious deterrent prepared to thwart any threat to Russia's national security, and if necessary provide an adequate response to any act of aggression." Capt. Dygalo added that, "The return of the Russian Navy to global oceans is an accomplished fact, whether you accept it or not."

    The Baltic Fleet subsequently dispatched the Neustrashimy (Fearless) frigate from the port of Kaliningrad to confront Somali pirates who had seized a Ukrainian-owned ship whose captured crew included several Russians. The UN Security Council enacted a resolution authorizing countries to use force in Somalia's territorial waters against the pirates. Russian policy makers see the ship's deployment as both a means to reaffirm Russia's commitment to uphold international security and an opportunity to underscore their capacity for independent military action. "We are planning to participate in international efforts to fight piracy off the Somalia coast," observed Adm. Vladimir Vysotsky, the commander-in-chief of the Russian Navy, "but the Russian warships will conduct operations on their own."

    Russia's fleet of strategic missile submarines has also shown renewed activity. On Oct. 12, the Russian armed forces fired three long-range ballistic missiles nearly simultaneously from separate launch platforms located thousands of miles apart -- a truck-mounted Topol missile from the Plesetsk cosmodrome in northwest Russia and ballistic missiles from submarines deployed in both the Barents Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk in the Pacific Ocean. The day before, a Russian submarine had launched a Sineva ballistic missile from the Barents Sea. The missile traveled a record distance of more than 11,500 kilometers to a target in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean. President Dmitry Medvedev, who observed the submarine launch on Saturday and the ground launch on Sunday, said that the exercise "shows that our deterrent is in order."

    Until recently, the priority placed on reviving Russia's ground and air forces has meant that the Russian fleet has been declining in size due to the need to decommission ships that have reached the end of their operational lifespan. The current Russian rearmament program, which will provide the Russian military with 4.9 trillion rubles ($192.16 billion) until 2015, allocates 25% to constructing new warships.

    Medvedev has stated that the government would give priority to "nuclear submarines with cruise missiles, and multi-purpose attack submarines." Russia's existing non-strategic submarines will soon reach the end of their designated lifespan since they were constructed during the 1980s and 1990s.

    In July, Adm. Vysotsky, stated that Russia intended to eventually deploy five or six aircraft carrier task forces, which would be more useful than submarines for reestablishing Russia's global maritime presence. The current plan is to start building the carriers in 2012. Observers question, however, whether the Russian defense industry still has the capacity to construct such a large and complex weapons system as a modern aircraft carrier and its associated warplanes. Russia's only remaining aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, has repeatedly gone out of service since its commissioning in the early 1990s to undergo essential repairs. Russia does not now have a shipyard designed to construct aircraft carriers; the Kuznetsov was built in Ukraine during the 1980s, when Ukraine's defense industries were part of the integrated Soviet military-industrial complex.

    Perhaps the most serious concern of the Russian Navy, though, is whether it can fulfill its important role in Russia's nuclear strategy. The critical uncertainties relate to Russia's new Bulava Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM), which is designed to carry ten nuclear warheads a maximum range of 8,000 kilometers. A variety of developmental problems, including an unprecedented three successive failed launches, have delayed the Bulava's entry into service until at least 2009, which is already three years behind schedule.

    On Sept. 18, the Dmitry Donskoi launched a Bulava from a submerged position in the White Sea at a target in the Kura testing grounds on the Kamchatka Peninsula. According to a Russian Navy spokesman, "It can be said that the launch and flight proceeded without a hitch." Nevertheless, some Russian sources subsequently claimed that the missile's multiple warheads failed to separate properly from the carrier bus and missed their targets. The Russian Navy is counting on the Bulava to equip its next generation Borey-class nuclear-power submarines, which is the only strategic submarine still under production in Russia.

    The problems with the Bulava underscore the fragility of Russia's military revival. Despite the unprecedented scale of the recent military maneuvers, the Russian armed forces, especially the non-nuclear branches, have yet to acquire the robust range of military platforms and technologies required of a military superpower.

    Richard Weitz is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and a World Politics Reviewcontributing editor. His weekly WPR column appears every Tuesday.
    http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/article.aspx?id=2777
    Does anyone have a resume/ report/ analysis of "Stability 2008" ?

    It appears that Russia is not only refurbishing her armed forces, but is also attempting to enforce a physical presence globally. This article does indicate that there is a very potent adversary in the making. However, while it appears formidable, what is the quality of the war machine Russia is trying to engineer?

    One wonders what Mediterranean bases Russia is thinking about since no Mediterranean nation is pro Russia, unless of course, it means Syria. There was such a report earlier too.

    The Georgian conflict indicates a growing confidence of Russia and it has seriously indicated that a rethink and a reappraisal of Russia's strength and intent is done.

    There is also the issue that the West has many an unsolved conflicts in hand and hence distracted in applying itself to the Russian intent.

    What should be done in the manner of policy, redeployment and action by the West wherein Russia is contained without losing momentum in Afghanistan and Iraq and at the same time keeping Iran and North Korea in check?


    "Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination."

    I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to.

    HAKUNA MATATA

  • #2
    Opinion & analysis

    Stability-2008: back to the major leagues


    19:34 | 07/ 10/ 2008

    MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti military commentator Ilya Kramnik)

    The Stability-2008 strategic maneuvers of the Russian armed forces are gaining momentum.

    On October 6, TU-95MS Bear-H and TU-160 Blackjack strategic bombers began training flights with full combat payloads and the live firing of cruise missiles at practice targets.

    The Stability-2008 strategic exercise, which began on September 21 in Russian and Belarusian territory and at sea, is the largest since the Soviet era. Within the next month the armed forces will be practicing a wide variety of tasks, including containing armed conflicts and strategic deterrence. In total, the drill will feature tens of thousands of servicemen, thousands of vehicles, air and naval forces, space troops and strategic nuclear forces in mass.

    The exercise is remarkable not only for its scale but also its character. The Russian and Belarusian armed forces practice operations both in simulated local conflict and in full-scale warfare, involving aggressive fighting for air superiority, missile defense, naval warfare and strategic strikes.

    The potential adversary is not directly specified, but, judging from the drill's scale and the tasks, it could be fairly stated that it is considering NATO and its allies. It's not the first time that "anti-NATO" drills are being held, but with anti-Western rhetoric gradually hardening after the recent five-day war in South Ossetia, Stability-2008 is an open demonstration of preparedness for a new Cold War.

    Not only are certain combat missions being practiced, but also new methods of troop command and control are being tested. Reportedly, cutting-edge reconnaissance technology, automatic troop command and control and real-time data exchange systems are being put through extensive testing.

    The logistics services practice long-distance cargo delivery and ground troop support for deployed naval and air forces. Also, combat and logistics units practice interaction with regional and local authorities, the police and the Federal Security Service (FSB).

    Such major exercises, comparable with real military operations, must check the state's capability of operating in modern warfare. Notably, the Interior Ministry's forces practice team action with military units in the field, using police helicopters for reconnaissance missions in some cases.

    The intensity of the Russian armed forces' operations has been growing in recent years, and is now a bit closer to that of the Soviet era, when large-scale exercises like Dnepr-67, Okean-70 (Ocean-70) or Zapad-81 (West-81) were held on a regular basis. Large-scale exercises demonstrated the Soviet armed forces' capability of meeting any challenge, and their current resumption is a fairly positive development. Preparedness for a full-scale conflict, which would involve a variety of missions ranging from counterinsurgency operations to elimination of the adversary's strategic nuclear forces, could be tested only by major exercises.

    Limited tactical drills alone, although necessary to maintain the armed forces' capabilities, offer no opportunity to the military to practice team play of large units in strategic operations, which makes the army a set of units incapable of operating in high-intensity conflicts. Russia needs no such army today. It's time to prove its Major League status.

    The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.

    For more information in Russian
    http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20081007/117536324.html
    The Russian open forum commentary on Stability 2008.


    "Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination."

    I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to.

    HAKUNA MATATA

    Comment


    • #3
      The author is no student of military history. The last US divisional exercise was REFORGER 1993. I doubt anyone can say that V Corps performed badly in the Iraq Invasion or III Corps didn't do its job on the Iranian border.

      Comment


      • #4
        Russia plans major military reform

        Alan Philps, Associate Editor

        * Last Updated: October 16. 2008 11:17PM UAE / October 16. 2008 7:17PM GMT

        Dmitri Medvedev, Russia’s president, left, with Col Gen Nikolai Solovtsov, the commander of Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces, centre, and Anatoly Serdyukov, the defence minister, at the Plesetsk cosmodrome. Dmitry Astakhov / RIA Novosti via Reuters

        Russia is launching the most radical reform of its armed forces since the collapse of the Soviet Union, designed to turn a lumbering Cold War-era army into a modern fighting force.

        The plans follow a mixed performance by the Russian army in its five-day war against tiny Georgia in August. Russian analysts have highlighted basic weaknesses – lack of night-vision equipment, non-working radios and poor air cover – despite massively increased defence budgets in recent years.

        The London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) has concluded that Russia’s quick victory was the result of the US-trained Georgian army collapsing, not any tactical excellence. Had the Russian army faced a “more resolute enemy”, it would have suffered heavy losses, the IISS said in a briefing paper.

        These conclusions have strengthened the hand of Anatoly Serdyukov, the reforming defence minister, who this week revealed plans for a dramatic cull of the 335,000-strong officer corps that makes up no less than one-third of the army’s total manpower.

        By 2012, officer numbers will be cut to 150,000, with the focus on younger ones in charge of combat units in place of the military bureaucrats who occupy prime real estate in the heart of Moscow.

        More than 200 generals will be retired, but that will still leave Russia with 900 generals for its million-strong armed forces. In the United States, by contrast, an army of half that size has only 306 generals.

        Not surprisingly, the officer corps has put up resistance to Mr Serdyukov, a civilian who formerly headed the Federal Tax Service, an agency that inspires the same respect as the old KGB in the past.

        “The old school is well entrenched in the defence ministry and Serdyukov will have to go head-to-head with them,” said Col Christopher Langton, a senior fellow at the IISS. “But the signs are that he can succeed where his predecessor failed. He is a good manager and a tough one.”

        In June, the minister won a battle against the old guard when he forced out Gen Yuri Baluyevsky, the chief of general staff. The general had opposed his plans to civilianise military jobs, sell off office space in Moscow and move the navy headquarters to St Petersburg. The port city is the home of the defence minister and his patron, Vladimir Putin, the prime minister.

        Col Langton said the influence of the old guard was clear, not just in the determination of old officers to hang on to their posts and perks but also in the old thinking still dominant in the defence ministry. This had led to “tactical deficiencies” in the Georgia campaign.

        Mr Serdyukov made clear his vision for the future when he praised the role in the Georgia campaign of the Russian airborne division, a professional – not conscript – unit that is part of the strategic reserve.

        The 58th Army, based across the border from Georgia whose main task has been fighting Chechen rebels, was first into battle. But it was not up to the task of taking on the Georgians, who were better equipped to fight at night. Gen Anatoly Khrulyov, its commander, was wounded in an ambush.

        The army’s technical weakness was apparent when some soldiers lost contact with their units once on Georgian soil and begged to use foreign reporters’ mobile phones. The army rushed to install Russian mobile phone masts to make up for the failure of the military radios.

        Poor equipment almost led to a battle on the outskirts of the Georgian capital, Tbilisi, which would have raised the conflict to a full-blown international crisis. In a muscle-flexing gesture, the Russians sent a column of 80 tanks and armoured vehicles towards Tbilisi, with instructions to turn away just before reaching the Georgian defences. But some of the vehicles broke down, and lost contact with the rest of the column. When the stragglers set off again, they lost their way and were about to blunder into the Georgian army. Journalists on the road pointed them in the right direction.

        Most surprisingly, the Russian forces had no reconnaissance drones – even though Russia sells such equipment for export. This led to the Georgians – equipped with Israeli-made drones – shooting down seven Russian aircraft, though only four of these have been acknowledged.

        The size of the army has fallen drastically since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, when it numbered about three million. But reform of its structure has always been resisted, even while recruitment has collapsed. This has left it packed with officers, who often carry out menial tasks that in a western army could be done by a private.

        The officer cull is going ahead at a time when Dmitri Medvedev, the Russian president, is promising a dramatic boost to military power. The nuclear arsenal is to be renewed by 2020.

        A unified air and space defence system will be set up. Russia plans to become the world’s second naval power, building six carrier battle groups over the next 20 years. The army will be mobile, and in “permanent readiness”, he has promised.

        All these promises might suggest that Russia is preparing for a new Cold War. Russian media have even suggested that recent military exercises were a simulation of war with the United States.

        The independent Russian defence analyst Pavel Felgenhauer, who takes a sceptical view of the military establishment, dismisses these promises of global military reach as “nonsense” designed to win over the opponents of military reform.

        The government’s plans were “contradictory” and probably way beyond any conceivable defence budget, he wrote in the independent Moscow newspaper Novaya Gazeta this week.

        A unified air and space defence system was beyond Russia’s capability, while air superiority over US and Nato forces would “require more than 100 years”. Mr Felgenhauer questioned how the defence ministry could provide pay-offs, pensions and houses for 45,000 retiring officers a year while grappling with such a drastic rearmament programme. But Col Langton, of the IISS, believes Russia is determined to project force abroad again.

        “There cannot be a new Cold War because there is no ideological struggle,” he said. “But we will see increased competition between the Russians and the Americans. The Russians are intent on exerting influence where they see fit.” In the Kremlin view, the August war showed the limits of US power on Russia’s borders. In Kremlin jargon, the “unipolar world” – in which the United States was the unchallenged superpower – has ended, making way for a “multipolar” arrangement where Washington is one of several powers.

        If the Russians are right, then Georgia will never join Nato, while the US Navy will think twice in future before holding exercises in the Black Sea.

        The next area of competition, according to Col Langton, will be the Mediterranean and North African regions. Plans for a permanent Russian naval base at Tartous in Syria clearly show Moscow’s plans to project sea power once again around the Middle East.

        [email protected]
        http://www.thenational.ae/article/20...50/0/FRONTPAGE
        If i only was so smart yesterday as my wife is today

        Minding your own biz is great virtue, but situation awareness saves lives - Dok

        Comment


        • #5
          16 Oct 2008
          Backyard games



          As Russia courts Latin America, some observers say the relationship is more symbolic than hostile and is Moscow's attempt to warn Washington to proceed cautiously in the Russian back yard. Sam Logan and Simon Saradzyhan report for ISN Security Watch.

          By Simon Saradzhyan and Sam Logan in Moscow and Rio de Janeiro for ISN Security Watch

          More than two decades after the Kremlin rolled back its program to support ideologically friendly regimes world-wide, Russian is again making inroads into what leaders in Washington thought might be its backwater in the aftermath of the Cold War.

          For some Latin American countries, Russia's return to the continent is a welcome development that limits US dominance. But for others, it bodes ill as they fear deliveries of Russian arms to the region may tilt the military balance, if not lead to a Cold War on the continent.


          "Of course we missed the times when we could always tell the US that we would turn to the Russians if something didn't work out," one Latin American diplomat told ISN Security Watch in a recent interview. The diplomat - who asked not to be named because he was not authorized to speak to the press on the issue - said Russia's ability to project influence in the region was a far cry from the Soviet days, but "still it is good to have more serious external players to interact with."

          Russia's chief expert on Latin America and director of the Russian Academy of Sciences' Latin America Institute, Vladimir Davydov, concurred in a recent op/ed published by Russia's Kommersant daily newspaper. "It is evident that our country has.... strengthened its potential and this factor is becoming all the more important as Latin Americans look to abandon an orientation towards one player and are interested in alternative partners."

          And Russian authorities do not make any secret of their intention to stage a comeback in Latin America. "We need to reestablish our positions in Cuba and in other countries," Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said in 2001, ordering the closure of Russia's Cuban electronic reconnaissance base, known as the Lourdes listening post.

          Venezuela is clearly Russia's closest ally in the region. Not a year goes by without Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez - who shares Russian leadership's discontent with Washington's unilateralism - visiting Moscow to sign new deals. Last month saw the Russian leadership warmly welcome Chavez with a promise of US$1 billion in loans to purchase Russian anti-aircraft missile systems, among other hardware.

          According to a statement issued by the Kremlin press service ahead of Chavez's visit, the two countries signed 12 arms deals worth a total of US$4.4 billion in 2005-2007.

          Chavez said he would likely spend most of the loan on Tor-M1 air defense equipment, mostly to protect Venezuela's new Su-30 MK2 jet fighters. Chavez also said Latin America should embrace Russia, that the region needs Russia for "economic and social development, support and peace."

          Venezuela's purchases catalyze a climate in the Western Hemisphere where its neighbors have begun to seriously question such a rapid military build-up. On 4 October, Colombian Defense Minister Juan Santos said Russia's presence could lead to a new Cold War in the region. Days later, he was pressured to change his statement, saying he was only citing world opinion. However, he did state that the upcoming naval exercises held in the Caribbean between Russia and Venezuela could "affect the balance of power in the region and its stability."

          Andy Webb-Vidal, a Jane's Intelligence Review correspondent based in Colombia, told ISN Security Watch he believed that Russians were selling arms to Latin American countries in order to show Washington that Moscow was capable of making inroads into the US neighborhood as well.

          "Obviously the problems in Georgia over South Ossetia have multiplied the tension between Washington and Moscow," Webb-Vidal said, explaining, "so from [the Russians'] point of view, they want to poke Washington in the eye because they've seen Washington pull strings in Georgia."

          Roman Ortiz, director of Security and Post-Conflict Studies with the Bogota-based Ideas for Peace Foundation (FIP), agrees. "Moscow is trying to erode the US presence in Latin America as retaliation to the development of increasingly strong links between the US and Western Europe and some key former Soviet Republics such as Ukraine and Georgia," he told ISN Security Watch.

          "For this strategy, Russia has found a perfect partner in the Venezuelan Bolivarian regime," he added.

          Beyond business

          Ortiz and many other analysts in the region argue that the sale of Russian military equipment to Caracas is now something more than business. These arms transfers are just one part of a much larger strategic effort to project Moscow's influence in Latin America with a focus on tipping the balance of power in an important area for US security.

          Looking ahead, Ortiz sees possible a greater threat in the Andean region.

          "The alliance between Russia and Venezuela promises to have critical strategic consequences for Andean security. Russian support will give Caracas a decisive strategic advantage. Venezuela will get not only privileged access to Russian-made high-tech weapons but also will be able to count on Moscow's support to deter any possible US military action against the Bolivarian regime. Under these circumstances, President Chavez could feel confident enough to prosecute a more aggressive strategy to export the revolution to the neighboring countries," he said.

          Apart from Venezuela, Russia has also been forging closer ties with Cuba and Nicaragua. Nicaragua's veteran leader and Chavez's ally Daniel Ortega on 5 September became the first state leader to recognize the independence of Georgia's separatist provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. It was seen as definitive support for Moscow's position.

          Soon after the recognition, Russia's ambassador to Nicaragua, Igor Kondrashev, announced Moscow would modernize the Nicaraguan army's aging military arsenal, and possibly the Central American country's man portable air defense systems (MANPAD). Kondrashev said a group of Russian experts would visit Nicaragua in November to identify other potential joint projects, including petroleum exploration in the Caribbean and the Pacific Ocean and the construction of roads and bridges, AP reported.

          Awash with tax revenues after several consecutive years of economic growth, the Russian government has also been mulling over whether to expand ties with Moscow's one-time strongest ally in the region - Cuba. In July, Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev and Deputy Premier Igor Sechin led a large delegation to Havana to meet both defense and economic officials.

          Following the visit, the Russian Security Council issued a statement announcing that Russia and Cuba planned "consistent work to restore traditional relations in all areas of cooperation," the Washington Post reported. Also following the trip, Russia's daily Izvestia reported that Russia intended to deploy nuclear capable Tu-160 and Tu-95 bombers in Cuba.

          The Russian Defense Ministry dismissed the report, but soon afterwards Moscow did send two Tu-160 long-range bombers of the strategic air command to Latin America. The two bombers landed in Venezuela where they flew sorties in what became the first demonstration of Russia's military might in that area since the end of the Cold War.

          In addition, in early October, the flagship of Russia's Northern Fleet - the atomic-powered Pyotr Velikii - departed with other warships for Venezuelan waters. The cruiser, which is designed to destroy aircraft carriers, will arrive at Venezuela in November to participate in what will become the first such naval maneuvers since the collapse of the Soviet empire. Neither the cruiser nor the bombers carried the nuclear arms of which they are capable, according to Russian diplomats.

          Earlier this week also saw Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev meet with the defense minister, prime minister, intelligence chief and foreign minister of Argentina in Buenos Aires.

          Patrushev discussed possibility "of cooperation in all spheres," according to the Russian side. According to an Argentinean Defense Ministry spokesman, the ministry's officials discussed the possibility of buying heavy-lift helicopters and training Argentinean air force pilots in Russia for space flights. The two sides have also agreed to form a joint commission on military-technical cooperation. The Argentinean president is to visit Russia in December while Patrushev is to visit Ecuador and Venezuela upon completing the Argentinean leg of his Latin America tour, according to Russian news agencies.

          Yet one veteran observer, Michael Shifter, vice-president of policy with the Inter American Dialogue, sees less to worry about. "For the moment, Russia's influence in Latin America is heavy on political symbolism and light on real substance," Shifter told ISN Security Watch.

          "The Russians want to make it clear they have the capacity to operate freely in the US backyard, just as the US operates in theirs, and are using their alliance with Venezuela for that purpose," Shifter said. "The Russians will be careful and will not want to risk a serious confrontation with the US - they simply want to make a political point."

          From Washington, Shifter keeps in mind the US position. "The US is surely watching developments closely - particularly in light of new geopolitical realities following the Georgia crisis - but would be wise to respond calmly and with restraint. There is no need for alarm; this is part of the new hemispheric landscape," he said. "An overreaction could turn any frightening scenario into a self-fulfilling prophecy."

          Global strategic balance

          Indeed, while unnerving some policy-makers in Latin America, Russia's inroads into the continent today are driven by different motivations than they were during the days of the Soviet Union. Back then, Moscow was pouring billions in aid and arms into socialist or anti-American regimes in Latin America as it was locked in a global rivalry with US. Today, those inroads vary in scale and interest, and, as Russian experts would argue, are largely economic in nature.

          The need for Russian energy giants to expand abroad as well as the need for more orders for the Russian defense industry top the list, although saber-rattling does factor in as Moscow seeks to deter expansion of western influence in the former Soviet Union. Russia's chief Latin America expert put economy first when opining on why some Latin American countries are tilting towards Russia.

          "For them Russia is a serious option as it has a big and dynamically growing market which has technologies that countries of the region lack," director of the Latin America Institute Davydov wrote in his opinion piece. "Is the global strategic balance affected? No."

          Simon Saradzhyan is a security and foreign policy analyst based in Moscow. He works as a consultant for the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University. Saradzhyan is the author of several papers on terrorism and security, including most recently "Russia: Grasping Reality of Nuclear Terror," published in The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science in September 2006.

          Sam Logan is an investigative journalist who has reported on security, energy, politics, economics, organized crime, terrorism and black markets in Latin America since 1999. He is a senior writer for ISN Security Watch and has a book on organized crime and immigration forthcoming from Hyperion in Spring, 2009.

          http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-A...ng=en&id=92776
          One has to read the Tarot cards carefully! ;) :))


          "Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination."

          I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to.

          HAKUNA MATATA

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
            The author is no student of military history. The last US divisional exercise was REFORGER 1993. I doubt anyone can say that V Corps performed badly in the Iraq Invasion or III Corps didn't do its job on the Iranian border.
            Can you amplify since I am, as maybe many others, are not too conversant on these.


            "Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination."

            I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to.

            HAKUNA MATATA

            Comment


            • #7
              RUSSIA'S STRATEGY
              'What's Looming in Ukraine Is more Threatening than Georgia'

              In an interview, Kremlin-aligned political strategist Vyacheslav Nikonov argues that the recent war in South Ossetia and bickering over Ukraine doesn't mean Moscow is steering into a confrontation course. But if Kiev entered NATO, he says it would spell the end of Russian cooperation with the West.

              SPIEGEL ONLINE: Mr. Nikonow, Georgian and Russian representatives met for face-to-face talks on Wednesday for the first time since armed conflict in South Ossetia began. The European Union summit in Brussels also plans to address the situation in Georgia and the European relationship with Russia. You recently wrote that Russia is "returning to the big game" after military action in the Caucasus. But isn't Russia much more isolated internationally?

              Vyacheslav Nikonov: Listen to people in Latin America, the Muslim world, Africa, India or China. There many looked on with understanding as Russia gave a United States marionette like Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili a good dressing down. Russia has more foreign friends than the Bush administration right now.

              SPIEGEL ONLINE: You are exaggerating. Only Nicaragua has followed Russia's lead in recognizing South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Besides them, the Ba'ath Party in Syria, Hugo Chavez in Venezuela and the radical Islamic Hamas in the Palestinian territories favored the Russian course of action.

              Nikonov: But didn't the current EU president, France's Nicolas Sarkozy, for example, visit Syria? And our position is popular elsewhere, too. Read the press in so-called moderate Muslim states like Egypt. I've spoken to representatives from many countries who have expressed great understanding. The small Saakashvili fan club comprises some -- but not all -- US allies. British Foreign Minister David Miliband, Poland and the Baltic states belong to that club. As far as we know, Germany isn't a member. You are mistaken if you think Russia is standing against the rest of the world.

              SPIEGEL ONLINE: Is Russia backsliding into Soviet foreign policy through intensive friendships with countries like Syria and Cuba?

              Nikonov: No. Soviet politics were based on ideological confrontation between regimes. Now there is no contest between regimes. But what have we got from the West now that we have let go of old partners? Nothing! America brings defense rockets into Europe directly on our borders, into Poland and the Czech Republic. And Spanish businesses have superseded Russian ones in Cuba.

              SPIEGEL ONLINE: Do you think Russia should once again secure a military base in Cuba?

              Nikonov: I think that we should develop friendly relations with all countries that want to work together with Russia. We shouldn't forgo good relations with countries that interest us just because someone else might not like it.

              SPIEGEL ONLINE: Does Russia, like the Soviet Union before it, want to challenge Americans all over the world?

              Nikonov: Russia is not a superpower and won't be one for the foreseeable future. But Russia is a great power. It was one, it is one and it will continue to be one.

              SPIEGEL ONLINE: Or an empire?

              Nikonov: I don't know what that term means in relation to modern Russia. In the end, it isn't important. Barring Britain, we are the only country that hasn't been conquered or colonized during the last 500 years. Russia is a stable model.

              SPIEGEL ONLINE: Russia and the US are clashing over influence in Ukraine. Could the fight escalate?

              Nikonov: Yes, Ukraine is an existential issue for us. Our military analysts say if Ukraine joins NATO our last defense against a military emergency would be gone.

              SPIEGEL ONLINE: Ukraine seems split into a western part, where most of the population supports joining NATO, and a southern and eastern part, where they definitely do not. Is it possible that new republics could be created? That, like in Georgia, territorial integrity could come under question and Ukraine could collapse?

              Nikonov: If the West keeps trying to drag Ukraine into NATO against their will, anything is possible.

              SPIEGEL ONLINE: If it came to a conflict between the autonomous republic of Crimea and central powers in Kiev, would Russia possibly help Crimea?

              Nikonov: We support territorial integrity in Ukraine just as we used to support territorial integrity in Georgia -- before people began to kill our people, our citizens, there.

              SPIEGEL ONLINE: Does that mean we can forget about territorial integrity for Ukraine in the case of armed hostilities with Russians in Ukraine, for example involving soldiers from the Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol?

              Nikonov: One can't guarantee anything when it comes to war. What's looming in Ukraine is much more threatening than in Georgia. The effort to expand NATO into Ukraine is a provocation to all those concerned with stability in Europe. Not only in Russia but in Europe as a whole.

              SPIEGEL ONLINE: What kind of Ukraine does Moscow want?

              Nikonov: A non-aligned Ukraine is preferable for us. Russia will do everything possible to ensure Ukraine doesn't enter NATO.

              SPIEGEL ONLINE: If the conflict over NATO and the Ukraine escalates, will present cooperation with the West be called into question?

              Nikonov: Without a doubt. For Ukraine to enter NATO would end all present cooperation. For example in Afghanistan, where we granted NATO flyover rights. Or in Iran, where we are working together to prevent Iran from arming themselves with nuclear weapons.

              SPIEGEL ONLINE: Mr. Nikonow, Russia is playing with fire by flouting internationally recognized boundaries in Georgia, although your country always insisted on international law in Kosovo.

              Nikonov: We weren't the ones who opened Pandora's box. Besides, Abkhazia and South Ossetia have better political and historical reasons for independence than Kosovo.

              SPIEGEL ONLINE: Namely?

              Nikonov: Abkhazians and Ossetians lived in their territories for many centuries. They acceded to Russia earlier than Georgia. They only belong to Georgia because Joseph Stalin, himself a Georgian, wanted it that way. When the Soviet Union collapsed and Georgia sought independence, both Abkhazia and South Ossetia should have become autonomous according to legally authorized referenda. Instead, Georgia suppressed sovereignty and started a war in which thousands died.

              SPIEGEL ONLINE: Nevetheless, isn't the Russian approach very risky?

              Nikonov: To say that the borders of all United Nations member states are immutable is naive. The Soviet Union, with its old boundaries, was also a member of the UN. The borders changed when the US recognized the three Baltic republics in 1991, back when the Soviet Union still existed. The United Nations Organization consisted of 51 states when it was founded. Now out of 250 nations, there are 192 members in the UN. I assure you that the number of states in the world will increase again.

              Interview conducted by Uwe Klussmann und Matthias Schepp.
              http://www.spiegel.de/international/...584631,00.html


              "Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination."

              I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to.

              HAKUNA MATATA

              Comment


              • #8
                The Real World: The Russian Navy Back in the Med

                By ARIEL COHEN (Middle East Times)
                Published: October 17, 2008

                Are happy days here again – for the Russian navy? The Russian Federation is redeploying a part of the Black Sea Fleet to its Cold War hunting grounds in the Mediterranean. Returning to bases and anchorages in Syria and Libya is a top priority for the Russian admirals.

                During the Cold War era the Soviets emphasized interdicting Western aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines in the Mediterranean to prevent them from launching strikes against targets within the Soviet homeland. The Mediterranean remains a key area of interest for Russian nuclear deterrence strategy, while deterring a war against Syria by the presence of the Russian forces demonstrates Moscow's clout to other countries.

                The Mediterranean Fifth Flotilla of the Soviet navy left the Mediterranean in 1991. In 1999, a Russian military intelligence ship resupplied in the Syrian port of Tartus while spying on NATO operations in the former Yugoslavia.

                Tartus is the only foreign naval base maintained by the Russians since they abandoned Cam Rahn Bay in Vietnam back in 2002. The base at Tarsus, the 720th Logistics Support Point, has been used for maintenance and refueling since the 1971 Syrian-Soviet Defense Treaty. The Cold War era facility is relatively small, boasting a floating dock and three floating PM-61 piers. But the Russian Federation has begun to expanding the facility and is preparing to defend it with S-300PMU-2 anti-air missile systems.

                The other Syrian port, Latakia, is also being expanded and dredged in preparation to base Russian ships. In the context of Russian military and naval expansion, these steps signify intent to establish a permanent, sustainable naval presence in the Mediterranean. Such presence may provide some deterrent to the NATO forces and may eventually threaten the Suez Canal and Israel.

                The primary motivation for the Mediterranean expansion is Russia's desire to project power and influence throughout the region while reaching out to "old friends", such as Syria. Russian vessels on their way to Venezuela took care to pay visits to another potential Russian regional ally – Moammar Gadhafi's Libya.

                According to Russian naval sources, ships which may be deployed to Tartus include Russia's only aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, the missile cruiser Moskva and several nuclear power attack submarines (SSNs) or nuclear guided missile submarines (SSGNs).

                The Admiral Kuznetsov was designed to protect the Soviet submarine fleet, interdict Western submarine forces, and destroy Western carrier groups with its supersonic Granit SS-N-19 anti-ship cruise missiles. It carries 24 Sukhoi-33 fighters (Flanker-D) comparable with the U.S.'s F-14s. Admiral Kuznetsov is designed to conduct air superiority and air defense operations using its aircraft and its 3K95 Kinzhal missile defense system.

                Experts believe that Russia has had significant difficulty keeping more than a small portion of its naval forces operational. Many of them were constructed in Mykolai'iv (Nikolayev), in today's Ukraine. Yet, reports abound that Moscow launched a number of programs updating its Soviet-era naval assets, including cruisers, destroyers, and submarines.

                Recent increases in Russian military spending and operational readiness, as well as the expansion of port facilities at Tartus, will improve the capacity of the Russian Black Sea fleet and its Mediterranean squadron, to act. Until Russia can revitalize its naval forces to a much larger degree, its deployments to the Mediterranean contribute more to symbolic and diplomatic activity than being a viable military counterweight to NATO in the region. Yet, the Black Sea Fleet in the Mediterranean is a significant show of force, a diplomatic irritant and a potential threat to the shipping in the Suez Canal and to America's ally, Israel.

                Western forces in the Mediterranean are massive. NATO naval forces include the U.S. Sixth Fleet as well as British, French, Italian and Spanish fleets. The U.S. navy contributes vessels to the Sixth Fleet, such as the Nimitz-class supercarrier, at least one of which is assigned to the Sixth Fleet's operational area at any given time.

                The Sixth Fleet alone outnumbers the Russian Black Sea fleet (of which only a portion has been sent to the Mediterranean) in aircraft, armaments, electronic warfare capabilities, computer power, and personnel. Yet, NATO naval planners need to watch Russian advances in Europe's strategic underbelly.

                The Kremlin seeks to cultivate Syria as a close regional ally, and is looking to secure additional bases for the Black Sea fleet, beyond its current base in Sevastopol. In addition, Russia would also be able to deploy electronic intelligence gathering ships that could then improve its monitoring capabilities against NATO forces and Syria's ability to monitor NATO and Israeli transmissions, expanding the previous naval intelligence engagement during the Balkan wars. Finally, Russian naval forces could deter or disrupt Israeli naval or air assets deployed in wartime against Syria or Hezbollah in Lebanon.

                Syria is pursuing new arms deals with Russia, including the purchase of the modern aircraft, anti-aircraft missiles, and tanks. Iran is also involved in supporting Damascus. In 2007 alone, Iran reportedly financed Syrian purchases of Russian arms to the tune of $1 billion.

                Iran and Syria, which have had a mutual defense treaty since 2004, train and equip Hezbollah, the biggest terrorist organization in the Middle East. Russia is cultivating both states as allies and as customers for Russian arms.

                The Russian layered air defenses, both short-range TOR and long-range S-300 anti-aircraft systems, are able to provide a defensive envelope over the mysterious Syrian nuclear research activities, as well as the significant chemical weapons arsenal deliverable by Damascus's short-range ballistic missiles, such as Syrian-produced SCUD-C and SCUD-D and, potentially, Russian-made Iskander-E (SS-X-26).

                During the Soviet era, the USSR was able to project its naval power globally, with yearly naval maneuvers in the Caribbean and the North Fleet naval brigade in Conacri, Guinea, and Luanda, Angola. The 8th Operational Squadron of the Pacific Fleet had supply bases in Aden and Socotra (Yemen) and Dahlak (Eritrea), and in Berbera, Somalia. After the war in Georgia, the Black Sea navy is planning to deploy in Abkhazia, at the ports of Ochamchiri and Sukhumi.

                For Moscow today, Tartus is only the first step in the long road to a renewed global naval presence.

                --

                Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., is senior research fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy Security at the Katherine and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute of International Studies at The Heritage Foundation. Lajos Szaszdi, Ph.D., and Nicholas Lippolis contributed to the production of this article.
                http://www.metimes.com/International..._the_med/1111/


                "Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination."

                I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to.

                HAKUNA MATATA

                Comment


                • #9
                  Please read the articles in detail and would sure be interested in knowing how to handle this resurgence, not only in the European theatre but also globally!


                  "Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination."

                  I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to.

                  HAKUNA MATATA

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Sir,
                    The immediate SOS should be abondoning the efforts to bring Ukrain under NATO's ambit and diplomatically question the Russian intents in reactivising the Cold War military maneuvers and force them to come down to the negotiating table and do some answering with regards to granting recognition to Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
                    sigpicAnd on the sixth day, God created the Field Artillery...

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Ray,

                      Thank you for this outstanding series of articles about Russia.

                      My solution: Come to some secret agreement with Putin over Ukraine. Acknowledge reality and make some room for Russia on the world stage, but make it clear that we will not negotiate on some issues, like Russian dominance of Ukraine or Georgia proper, or attacks on the Baltics.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Ray View Post
                        Can you amplify since I am, as maybe many others, are not too conversant on these.
                        REFORGER

                        REturn of FORces to GERmany, a mutli-divisional multi-service exercise where the US would rush state side units to Europe and mate them up with pre-positioned stocks. In some of them, state units would also roll to to the docks of the reserve transport fleet with the equipment practicing rail movement and ship loading. IIRC Civillian air assets were also used to rush troops over to Europe.

                        Reforger was certainly the biggest of the US exercises, but each brigade also does (did) annual drills and divisional and corps staffs still do (did) exercises where they do everything but physically role the div/corps out to the field.

                        When I was at Ft Hood we'd load at least some units by rail to send to NTC (National Training Center) for each rotation,and if I recall correctly 93-94ish we even loaded up a good portion of 2nd Bgd 2nd Armor for a drill and then unloaded everything.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Deltacamelately View Post
                          Sir,
                          The immediate SOS should be abondoning the efforts to bring Ukrain under NATO's ambit and diplomatically question the Russian intents in reactivising the Cold War military maneuvers and force them to come down to the negotiating table and do some answering with regards to granting recognition to Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
                          Laugh in their faces, make them feel small, so they take an "I'll show you" stance. Tell them if the Ukraine wants NATO membership its got it. Tell them if Chavez gets to big for his britches he'll get taken out. Tell them that until Russia stops trying to bully its why to respect it'll never be respected.

                          If they want to stop NATO epxanding- make good with their neighbors. An apology for Imperial and Soviet times, reparations and a renunciation of all current border/citizenry disputes would be a good start. They might also want to curb arms sales to rouge states and stop shielding them in the UN. But until Russia starts acting respectful, they should not get respect.

                          At the end of the day, Russia's defense spending is less than 1/10ths the west. and its GDP is nothing to write home about even with inflated energy prices. Without nukes they are nothing more than a chilly wooded version of Arabia, and with nukes they are only a bully.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Zraver,

                            Thank you for the info on Reforger.

                            I have a book "So Many, so much, so far, so fast" by James Mathews and Cora Holt on the US Transportation Command and the Strategic Deployment for Op Desert Shield/ Desert Storm, sent to me by a friend, Anoop. I must go through that again.

                            It is voluminous and rather heavy reading.


                            "Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination."

                            I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to.

                            HAKUNA MATATA

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              IMO with gas prices (oil to be specific) starting to go lower and lower the funding for the ambitious programs will dry up. Iran is having a real hard time now as we speak and here in the U.S. we are looking at gas prices around the 2.67 a gallon mark and many say it will still go even lower. Better build/refit real quick before the money pit becomes just another pit into which they will fall!;)
                              Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.

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