What happened to Georgia, now threatens Ukraine

[Geralt]

More Russian Passports in Ukraine? - Times Topics Blog - NYTimes.com

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...he-Crimea.html

Russia Distributing Passports in the Ukraine? (Robert Amsterdam) - Politics - Europe - Putin - Vladimir Putin - Russia Blog - Russia - KGB - Kremlin

Russia to Deliver up Ukrainians with Two Passports?

Unfortunately, at first look I don't see as comprehensive info about it in English as I saw in Polish, but for all intents and purposes it looks like Russia is attempting the same tactics to Ukraine as was relatively successful towards Georgia, i.e. issuing passports to everybody willing to gain "Russian" nationality, then blackmailing their host country about annexing some of its territories if they want to e.g. join NATO and ultimately doing this if adjacent governments become too serious about this last move. From what I've read, it may easily concern 8 million of Ukrainians... Unfortunately, economic issues will support such move since Ukraine did even worse about free-market reforms than Russia plus doesn't have this premium for oil and gas export. The result? The average monthly salary - 400 USD in Ukraine, while 700 in Russia.

The question remains; would NATO/EU do something serious about Russia annexing part of Ukraine, like confiscating bank accounts of Putin and other oligarchs? Unfortunately, I'm more and more sceptical about this...

[cyppok]

http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/pol...tml#post548721

Just go through my last post...

Nato would watch, whine, accept. In that order... The only way part of Ukraine joins Russia is Yushenko does something undemocratic like institution of direct rule with parliament being dissolved... (ergo the link I posted)

[zraver]

http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/pol...tml#post548721

Just go through my last post...

Nato would watch, whine, accept. In that order... The only way part of Ukraine joins Russia is Yushenko does something undemocratic like institution of direct rule with parliament being dissolved... (ergo the link I posted)

That is a big gamble on Russia's part.

[bengalraider]

That is a big gamble on Russia's part.

not really yushchenko did not have the support of nearly half of ukraine , the pro- russian party is still the single largest block in the ukrainian parliament, and over 40% of the ukrainian people are staunchly pro-russia.

[GraniteForge]

That is a big gamble on Russia's part.

If Ukraine can find themselves a president as stupid as Georgia's, then things could get interesting.

[Spork55]

That is a big gamble on Russia's part.

If Ukraine can find themselves a president as stupid as Georgia's, then things could get interesting.

LMAO.

On a serious note - what would Russia stand to gain by taking a chunk of Ukraine?

Aside from a Crimean port I have trouble thinking of something worthwhile in such acquisition.

[Woland]

Crimea is strategically decent for Black Sea Fleet, it also has some tourism, maybe manufacturing... To sum up - close to nothing. Frankly, as a Russian citizen I would rather support retaking Siberia from bears. :)

[BD1]

LMAO.

On a serious note - what would Russia stand to gain by taking a chunk of Ukraine?

Aside from a Crimean port I have trouble thinking of something worthwhile in such acquisition.

- quite big bunch of people - couple dozens of millions, and russia-friendly
- lots of heavy industry and national resources
thereīs more , but i gotta run to work, sorry. But thatīs a start.

[Ray]

Yes Russia gains by taking a chunk.

Russia always desired a warm water port.

[Spork55]

not a golden-egg laying goose exactly

- quite big bunch of people - couple dozens of millions, and russia-friendly
- lots of heavy industry and national resources
thereīs more , but i gotta run to work, sorry. But thatīs a start.

Actually, I can think of rich agricultural lands as well. More people for aging Russia wouldn't hurt either but comes at a price as Ukraine has her own growing pensioner ranks.
They do have coal/metal but Russia isn't really short of natural resources.

Last I heard heavy industry wasn't doing too well, much of the old Soviet inefficient garbage. Requires $$$ investment and re-management (basically the same thing Russia has gone through/is going through). The economy/infrastructure is a mess. (IMHO they'd need someone of local Putin's authority to whip things into shape).

I quote from UKRAINE RANKS LOW IN GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS INDEX - Business Ukraine most recent:

"In spite of what is perceived as progress in some sectors, Ukraine only managed to secure the 73rd spot in the 2007-2008 rankings. The factors involved in Ukraine’s low ranking are many, but most observers believe that the country’s well-deserved reputation for corruption, a poor judicial system and chaotic tax regulation were major factors in the low ranking.

Steven Pifer, a former US ambassador to Ukraine, recently spoke about some of the factors that left Ukraine mired well below Russia and the Baltic states.

"While the recent parliamentary elections were certified as free and fair by international observers, the trends aren’t as positive with regard to corruption."

Heritage Foundation is also fairly cautious at best:

"Promises of more market openness and economic reform after Ukraine's 2004 "Orange Revolution" have fallen short, and infighting between President Victor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Victor Yanukovich has generated instability. Prominent sectors of the economy include services, mining, metals, and manufacturing. The agricultural sector is strong but overregulated through quotas and tariffs on grain exports. Ukraine has benefited heavily from recent increases in the prices of metals. Despite lucrative opportunities for foreign direct investment, economic progress in the near term may be slowed by persistent corruption, steadily increasing gas prices, deteriorating infrastructure, and political uncertainty." (Link: Index of Economic Freedom)

[BD1]

the same report puts Russia in 58th place. I donīt know how big the difference is. 15 places mathematically - cannot judge on that. Est. 27th and Latvia 45th is not insurmountable difference as far as i can tell, knowing a little bit about those 2 countries.

And about Rus. benefits in Ukr. : losing transit taxes, cutting out a middleman.
And although the industry base is old, itīs a base .

[NUS]

not really yushchenko did not have the support of nearly half of ukraine , the pro- russian party is still the single largest block in the ukrainian parliament, and over 40% of the ukrainian people are staunchly pro-russia.

By the way, what's the Ukrainian's opinion about possible Russian annexation? Will the fight or will they meet Russians with flowers? Or this is territory-dependent?

[Ray]

It would be stupid to annex.

Have a Colour revolution!

Adds a seat in the UN General Assembly! :))

[TTL]

Besides a blacksea port,territory and industry extra population is also a usefull resource as they can be used as workforce, soldiers and provide extra taxes. Also as their culture is very similar to Russians it will be more easy to integrate them to the mainstream population. Russia has much to gain in such a move.

[cyppok]

Besides a blacksea port,territory and industry extra population is also a usefull resource as they can be used as workforce, soldiers and provide extra taxes. Also as their culture is very similar to Russians it will be more easy to integrate them to the mainstream population. Russia has much to gain in such a move.

LoL you make it sound like cows. useful population, can be used in such and such a way... sorry but this is just funny from my point of view.
You make it sound like people have no say at what they will do themselves.

Realistically though the region is basically integrated especially the coastline, ports, railroad, and the people are basically the same. Agriculturally this would be very big, larger grain exporter/producer with more market leverage. It would boost prices for all grain exporters since supply would be more controlled. I think not sure.