Upcoming elections in Ukraine and my take.
Bloomberg.com: Europe
It is very likely Ukraine will have another Parliamentary election before the next presidential election. IF the pres dissolves parliament they are supposed to schedule elections in 60 days for the parliament.
The presidential elections are supposed to happen
in January, 2010 and parliament in 2012.
Ukrainian presidential election, 2010 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Ukrainian parliamentary election, 2012 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
My take is basically the following. The Timoshenko and Yuschenko political parties are ruthlessly fighting for electorate which they share (basically the same people vote for either party to a large degree). Timoshenko is gaining share Yuschenko is loosing share. His party gets very low-to-no share at all in the south-east because it is nationalistic while her's does since its pragmatic-economic more or less with caveats of course.
There are two scenarios that are likely to occur.
Scenario 1) She gets most of his electorate and his party is reduced to low percentage ergo 7% or less with her having 35-42 share
Regions having 31-37
Lytvin having 4%+
Communists having 4%+
(the likelihood of the bottom 2 parties of gaining share is very high
Lytvin was the speaker in the last Rada very popular because he was fairly impartial, Communists are seen as the defenders of the old, rural, and the poor and they are gaining the votes socialists lost)
If this happens she is the De-Facto ruler of Ukraine for the next cycle with most of the power and the ability to actually do most of what she wants. The likelihood being a coalition with two smaller parties etc...
Outcomes will be a very pragmatic foreign policy trying to get everything from everyone. Internally I do not think she will be an effective ruler but at least there will be someone accountable.
Scenario 2) Yuschenko gets 7%
Timoshenko gets 28%
Regions gain to 40%
Communists 6%
Lytvin 6%
Keep in mind Regions basically have a base of 30% and the main electoral battle is in the center 8 regions ergo Zhytomyr, Vinnytsa, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kiev. Here the electorate is very fluid.
Administrative divisions of Ukraine - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 9 Regions in the South-East basically go for Regions, and the 8 Regions in the West split between Yuschenko/Timoshenko with her gradually winning more and more of them.
Outcome: To be quiet honest Regions is a basically an industrialist-capitalist party (very similar to Timoshenko's party in that regard) they would be pragmatic but would have to trade things off for really big things. It is very likely they would extend the lease in Crimea and sell the pipelines to Gazprom in return for a Gas deal and full access to the Russian market along with resumption of contracts for metallurgical supplies and re-integration into ventures etc... Example lots of metallurgical products (pipes/fittings etc) built in Ukraine used to go to Russia some Airplane production facilities were set to be used for joint construction etc prior to the elections for pres. (An and Superjet construction)... Just more economically integrated similar to what Canada is with U.S.
-----------------------
(third scenario below)
The following scenario outcome is very unlikely
Scenario 3) Yuschenko's party wins 40%
With Communists and Lytvin having 6% each (12% tot)
Regions 25%
Timoshenko 15%
Timoshenko gets thrown out of her party and her party goes into a coalition
with Yuschenko's party.
If this happens the most likely outcome is a future split of Ukraine. (future means 6-18 months). Once they get to wield full power and use it like a hammer look out. They would most likely not be pragmatic. Get the absolute worst trade-offs and try to create an ideological imperative instead of economic well being. Ukraine would go for Nato, Eu, while completely collapsing and integration of the country was twisting apart.
Ukraine would split into two countries. How it would happen is very simple the roadways/railways transport gets blocked by regional civil administration while they transition into a different official structure. There would be tension but it would be peaceful for the most part. It would probably take two weeks to a month and then a new country would emerge. If there was military intervention by the western powers Russia would most likely absorb it. If no western intervention another country.
Novorossiya - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Just for Historical reference. The center would join the new entity if there was a serious rift.
Bloomberg.com: Europe
It is very likely Ukraine will have another Parliamentary election before the next presidential election. IF the pres dissolves parliament they are supposed to schedule elections in 60 days for the parliament.
The presidential elections are supposed to happen
in January, 2010 and parliament in 2012.
Ukrainian presidential election, 2010 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Ukrainian parliamentary election, 2012 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
My take is basically the following. The Timoshenko and Yuschenko political parties are ruthlessly fighting for electorate which they share (basically the same people vote for either party to a large degree). Timoshenko is gaining share Yuschenko is loosing share. His party gets very low-to-no share at all in the south-east because it is nationalistic while her's does since its pragmatic-economic more or less with caveats of course.
There are two scenarios that are likely to occur.
Scenario 1) She gets most of his electorate and his party is reduced to low percentage ergo 7% or less with her having 35-42 share
Regions having 31-37
Lytvin having 4%+
Communists having 4%+
(the likelihood of the bottom 2 parties of gaining share is very high
Lytvin was the speaker in the last Rada very popular because he was fairly impartial, Communists are seen as the defenders of the old, rural, and the poor and they are gaining the votes socialists lost)
If this happens she is the De-Facto ruler of Ukraine for the next cycle with most of the power and the ability to actually do most of what she wants. The likelihood being a coalition with two smaller parties etc...
Outcomes will be a very pragmatic foreign policy trying to get everything from everyone. Internally I do not think she will be an effective ruler but at least there will be someone accountable.
Scenario 2) Yuschenko gets 7%
Timoshenko gets 28%
Regions gain to 40%
Communists 6%
Lytvin 6%
Keep in mind Regions basically have a base of 30% and the main electoral battle is in the center 8 regions ergo Zhytomyr, Vinnytsa, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kiev. Here the electorate is very fluid.
Administrative divisions of Ukraine - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 9 Regions in the South-East basically go for Regions, and the 8 Regions in the West split between Yuschenko/Timoshenko with her gradually winning more and more of them.
Outcome: To be quiet honest Regions is a basically an industrialist-capitalist party (very similar to Timoshenko's party in that regard) they would be pragmatic but would have to trade things off for really big things. It is very likely they would extend the lease in Crimea and sell the pipelines to Gazprom in return for a Gas deal and full access to the Russian market along with resumption of contracts for metallurgical supplies and re-integration into ventures etc... Example lots of metallurgical products (pipes/fittings etc) built in Ukraine used to go to Russia some Airplane production facilities were set to be used for joint construction etc prior to the elections for pres. (An and Superjet construction)... Just more economically integrated similar to what Canada is with U.S.
-----------------------
(third scenario below)
The following scenario outcome is very unlikely
Scenario 3) Yuschenko's party wins 40%
With Communists and Lytvin having 6% each (12% tot)
Regions 25%
Timoshenko 15%
Timoshenko gets thrown out of her party and her party goes into a coalition
with Yuschenko's party.
If this happens the most likely outcome is a future split of Ukraine. (future means 6-18 months). Once they get to wield full power and use it like a hammer look out. They would most likely not be pragmatic. Get the absolute worst trade-offs and try to create an ideological imperative instead of economic well being. Ukraine would go for Nato, Eu, while completely collapsing and integration of the country was twisting apart.
Ukraine would split into two countries. How it would happen is very simple the roadways/railways transport gets blocked by regional civil administration while they transition into a different official structure. There would be tension but it would be peaceful for the most part. It would probably take two weeks to a month and then a new country would emerge. If there was military intervention by the western powers Russia would most likely absorb it. If no western intervention another country.
Novorossiya - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Just for Historical reference. The center would join the new entity if there was a serious rift.
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