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Thread: Ukraine, upcoming elections

  1. #1
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    Ukraine, upcoming elections

    Upcoming elections in Ukraine and my take.
    Bloomberg.com: Europe
    It is very likely Ukraine will have another Parliamentary election before the next presidential election. IF the pres dissolves parliament they are supposed to schedule elections in 60 days for the parliament.

    The presidential elections are supposed to happen
    in January, 2010 and parliament in 2012.
    Ukrainian presidential election, 2010 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    Ukrainian parliamentary election, 2012 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    My take is basically the following. The Timoshenko and Yuschenko political parties are ruthlessly fighting for electorate which they share (basically the same people vote for either party to a large degree). Timoshenko is gaining share Yuschenko is loosing share. His party gets very low-to-no share at all in the south-east because it is nationalistic while her's does since its pragmatic-economic more or less with caveats of course.

    There are two scenarios that are likely to occur.
    Scenario 1)
    She gets most of his electorate and his party is reduced to low percentage ergo 7% or less with her having 35-42 share
    Regions having 31-37
    Lytvin having 4%+
    Communists having 4%+
    (the likelihood of the bottom 2 parties of gaining share is very high
    Lytvin was the speaker in the last Rada very popular because he was fairly impartial, Communists are seen as the defenders of the old, rural, and the poor and they are gaining the votes socialists lost)

    If this happens she is the De-Facto ruler of Ukraine for the next cycle with most of the power and the ability to actually do most of what she wants. The likelihood being a coalition with two smaller parties etc...

    Outcomes will be a very pragmatic foreign policy trying to get everything from everyone. Internally I do not think she will be an effective ruler but at least there will be someone accountable.

    Scenario 2) Yuschenko gets 7%
    Timoshenko gets 28%
    Regions gain to 40%
    Communists 6%
    Lytvin 6%

    Keep in mind Regions basically have a base of 30% and the main electoral battle is in the center 8 regions ergo Zhytomyr, Vinnytsa, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kiev. Here the electorate is very fluid.
    Administrative divisions of Ukraine - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    The 9 Regions in the South-East basically go for Regions, and the 8 Regions in the West split between Yuschenko/Timoshenko with her gradually winning more and more of them.

    Outcome: To be quiet honest Regions is a basically an industrialist-capitalist party (very similar to Timoshenko's party in that regard) they would be pragmatic but would have to trade things off for really big things. It is very likely they would extend the lease in Crimea and sell the pipelines to Gazprom in return for a Gas deal and full access to the Russian market along with resumption of contracts for metallurgical supplies and re-integration into ventures etc... Example lots of metallurgical products (pipes/fittings etc) built in Ukraine used to go to Russia some Airplane production facilities were set to be used for joint construction etc prior to the elections for pres. (An and Superjet construction)... Just more economically integrated similar to what Canada is with U.S.
    -----------------------

    (third scenario below)
    The following scenario outcome is very unlikely
    Scenario 3)
    Yuschenko's party wins 40%
    With Communists and Lytvin having 6% each (12% tot)
    Regions 25%
    Timoshenko 15%

    Timoshenko gets thrown out of her party and her party goes into a coalition
    with Yuschenko's party.

    If this happens the most likely outcome is a future split of Ukraine. (future means 6-18 months). Once they get to wield full power and use it like a hammer look out. They would most likely not be pragmatic. Get the absolute worst trade-offs and try to create an ideological imperative instead of economic well being. Ukraine would go for Nato, Eu, while completely collapsing and integration of the country was twisting apart.

    Ukraine would split into two countries. How it would happen is very simple the roadways/railways transport gets blocked by regional civil administration while they transition into a different official structure. There would be tension but it would be peaceful for the most part. It would probably take two weeks to a month and then a new country would emerge. If there was military intervention by the western powers Russia would most likely absorb it. If no western intervention another country.
    Novorossiya - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    Just for Historical reference. The center would join the new entity if there was a serious rift.
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

  2. #2
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    Great post - thankyou . Will look more...

  3. #3
    Military Professional Ray's Avatar
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    It will be much watched election internationally and there will be foreign influences too, including funds!

    One wonders if Ukraine will split even though there are divisions in aspiration amongst the regions.


    "Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination."

    I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to.

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    clearing something up

    The parties generally fall into two categories
    parties of personality
    parties of group (below)

    Yuschenko's party
    Party of Regions (Yanukovich etc)
    Communists

    for them it does not matter what happens to the leader
    they will get their base electorate say 7, 25, 5, give or take depending on personality, policy etc of the person in charge at the time but not so much.

    parties of personality on the other hand

    Timoshenko's party
    Litvin's party

    exist based upon mainly on the popularity of their respective leaders. As it goes up they zoom in ratings and share of vote come election time. Something happens to the leader the party dissolves or gets absorbed into the first group.

    Funds matter but they are not the deciding factor.
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

  5. #5
    Military Professional Ray's Avatar
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    Fund matter a lot in all elections.

    In some countries, it is blatant and crass in use and in some countries, it is used sophisticated and subtle.

    The US has a sophisticated manner of use of funds, including the propping up of the Freedie and Fanny Banks. Notwithstanding what one may say, it has a political message.

    In the third world and emerging democracies, it is not so sophisticated. If one reads through the intelligence files, including those in the open forum, one would realise how external forces influences the outcome of various govts and props them up.

    To believe that the world is a fair and level playing field is a bit naive in my opinion.

    I will not deny that there are genuine aspiration of the people, but they can be nudged through funds. To believe that the media is not bought to serve an agenda would again be naive.

    Take the case of Palin. The media is digging up her 'misdeeds' and the GOP are no fools. They are on a campaign to state that the media is liberal (a slur word in the US). And the corporates with funds are with the GOP! It balances. 4 Nov decides!!
    Last edited by Ray; 10 Sep 08, at 07:20.


    "Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination."

    I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to.

    HAKUNA MATATA

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    update

    Saturday 13th
    was the last day for NY-NC(Yushenko's party) to recall their statement of leaving the coalition with Byt(Timoshenko's party) hence the majority will be broken more or less. If they do not reconcile (most likely not happening) in the near future.Within 60 days of the breakup of the coalition they should set a date for elections so far the date I saw on a story in one paper December 21st.

    The other update is that Ukraine has about 5-6 billion dollars in external debt payments coming due next year 2009. With a deficit this year 2008 of about -4/-5 billion dollars. So it is very likely from my point of view they will default next year.

    Theoretically Yuschenko can enforce direct presidential rule if certain things happen but that would be very very defeating. If that were to happen very bad things would occur.

    Yushchenko will opt for direct presidential rule if he strikes a deal with generals – Taras Chornovil
    (this is theoretically possible but the unity of the country would be severely impaired if it happened)

    Ukraine '09 budget gap to be cut to 1.4 pct of GDP - Reuters News
    Budget and payments for 2009.

    basically they are projecting going from about 220 billion(hryvnas) to 285 billion(hryvnas) in gov't revenues from 2008 t0 2009 about a 29% increase in revenues.
    Last edited by cyppok; 14 Sep 08, at 17:17. Reason: added budget link
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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    Another Update

    There are ironic twists kind of that are happening.
    Timoshenko is being periodically called into security forces offices questioned about the presidents poisoning during the "Orange Revolution" ergo under suspicion.
    Georgia war sparks political battle in Ukraine - Los Angeles Times
    The president's office now calls Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko a traitor who refuses to speak out against Moscow. She shoots back that President Viktor Yushchenko is a loose cannon who has antagonized Russia to the point of endangering Ukraine.
    I like the line "The war over the war" heh

    The European Council on Foreign Relations | Ukrainian government collapse threatens permanent crisis
    (the paragraph below is towards the bottom sums up the jest of the take)
    President Yushchenko is apparently serious about ordering yet another dissolution of parliament and scheduling early elections in December 2008. This is delusional. His constitutional powers in this respect are limited. In 2007 Yushchenko dissolved the last parliament on shaky legal grounds; but the West and much of the Ukrainian public bought the utilitarian argument that new elections were necessary to ‘reboot' the political system. New elections now for narrow partisan advantage would try everyone's patience. They might also be suicidal, as NUNS is polling at 5% or less. BYT and Regions would end up on top, but they might also lose votes. Plenty of new party ‘projects' are on the drawing board, aiming to tap the support of voters who have grown disillusioned with the main parties. The most intriguing rumour is a possible new party to be led by Yatsenyuk and Regions' leading moderate Raisa Bohatyrova, whom Regions expelled for supporting Yushchenko's line on Georgia in August. The new party has the reported support of Rinat Akhmetov, Ukraine's richest man and previously Regions' main financial supporter.
    VR passes first reading of bill imposing criminal liability for unlawful dissolution of parliament
    Sept. 18, the Ukrainian parliament passed the first reading of the bill imposing criminal liability for unlawful dissolution of the legislature. The law was supported by 349 lawmakers from Party of Regions, BYUT and Communists.

    Under the law, “usurping state power by an early termination of Verkhovna Rada authority is against the Constitution and is punishable by between 7 and 12 years in prison,” The Ukrayinska Pravda reports.
    This is the political picture thus far.
    Last edited by cyppok; 21 Sep 08, at 01:08.
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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    well it happened as expected.

    Ukrainian president dissolves Parliament - International Herald Tribune

    KIEV, Ukraine: President Viktor Yushchenko of the Ukraine dissolved Parliament on Wednesday and called an early election, dashing hopes for the revival of a pro-Western coalition and throwing this politically volatile ex-Soviet nation into further turmoil.

    The vote will be the third parliamentary election in as many years and deal a severe blow to an economy already battered by the global financial crisis. The date of the election was not announced.
    There is a bit of risk to this if the election date is not set within 60 days there is a real danger of unconstitutional actions by the president.

    The likelihood of electoral outcome is at this point most favorable to Regions, the communists, and any party unaffiliated with Yuschenko and Timoshenko.
    If they both in sum get 25-30% total they will essentially be locked out of power.

    With Yushenko's party polling 5% or less the dissolution of parliament is a political suicide for them, unless they planned something else.
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

  9. #9
    Military Professional Ray's Avatar
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    From The Times
    October 9, 2008
    Ukraine's Orange revolution victors to become election rivals after coalition collapses

    Tony Halpin, Moscow Correspondent

    Ukraine’s pro-Western coalition succumbed to bitter personal rivalry last night after the President dissolved parliament and called a snap election.

    The move pits President Yushchenko against his former ally Yuliya Tymoshenko in a struggle for political dominance. The feud between the leaders of the 2004 Orange revolution threatens to open the door for their pro-Russian rival Viktor Yanukovych to make a stunning comeback and tilt Ukraine back towards Moscow.

    The election will be the third in two years as Ukraine has lurched from one political crisis to another. It threatens to derail the country’s bid for Nato membership at the Nato summit in December and comes as the economy struggles in the face of the global financial crisis.

    Mr Yushchenko launched a strong attack on Mrs Tymoshenko, the Prime Minister, in a pre-recorded television address announcing the dissolution of parliament. It was broadcast while he was on a visit to Italy. “I am convinced that the democratic coalition was ruined by one thing alone — the ambition of one person, the hunger for power . . . and the dominance of personal interests over national ones,” he said. The President can dissolve parliament if a new government is not formed within 30 days of the previous one collapsing.
    Related Links

    * Ukraine coalition government teeters

    * 'Beauty and beast’ squabble over plane

    Mr Yushchenko set no date for the election, though many expect it to be held in December. Mrs Tymoshenko is likely to challenge his decision, however, arguing that it is unconstitutional to dissolve parliament before November, a year after deputies were sworn in following the last election. The crisis erupted last month when the parliamentary party supporting Mr Yushchenko quit Mrs Tymoshenko’s ruling coalition, which had only a two-seat majority in the 450-member Rada.

    The President’s Our Ukraine party resigned in protest at Mrs Tymoshenko’s support for measures proposed by Mr Yanukovych’s opposition Party of Regions to limit the powers of the presidency. Mr Yushchenko dissolved the parliament last year after accusing Mr Yanukovych, then Prime Minister, of seeking to amend the Constitution to destroy his authority.

    In the address Mr Yushchenko accused Mrs Tymoshenko of mounting a “political and constitutional coup d’état” and rejected all attempts to rebuild the coalition. The leader of Our Ukraine in parliament described the alliance with the Party of Regions as a “pro-Kremlin majority”. Mrs Tymoshenko rejected the allegations and accused him of destroying the coalition to damage her chances of succeeding him in presidential elections due next year. Opinion polls consistently rate her Ukraine’s most popular politician, while support for Mr Yushchenko languishes in single figures.

    Tensions had already flared between the Orange coalition allies over Russia’s war with Georgia. Aides to President Yushchenko accused Mrs Tymoshenko of “high treason” for failing to condemn the Kremlin’s actions.

    * Have your say

    Ahh the beauty of "democracy" - an incompetent president yielding power to dissolve a parliament over lack of support, especially after incriminating evidence of abuse of power surfaces. Talk about autocracy.

    PT, Portland, OR, USA

    It was about time as for pro western governement I am surprice at the double standards some western countries hold. Is there a terrorist organization including Georgia that Ukraine since becoming pro western havent yet sold weapons to? It be a very good move for Ukraine to go pro Russian.

    Mark Bolan, Moscow,
    Ukraine's Orange revolution victors to become election rivals after coalition collapses - Times Online
    This report is from a very conservative and high profile media.

    Therefore, one cannot say it is pro Russian.

    It does indicate a dangerous trend in Ukraine. I saw a BBC report on Sevastopol and the Russian Black Sea fleet. It appears that those people are very pro Russians.

    Could the members of the ex Satellite nations/ SSRs of USSR care to explain this situation?


    "Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination."

    I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to.

    HAKUNA MATATA

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    "2008-10-09, 14:26
    Pre-term elections to the Ukrainian parliament are a cause for concern, said Polish expert on eastern politics Wiesław Romanowski.
    Third elections over two years mean that Ukraine is not just temporarily in crisis, but the political chaos lingers on, Romanowski told Polish Radio.

    New elections will not bring to power any new parties so not much will change in terms of the political make-up in Ukraine, he said. It is Moscow, who benefits from the chaos, says Romanowski: 'It is not Yanukovich, nor Yushchenko, nor Timoshenko, who is the ally of Russia in Ukraine. The ally of Russia in Ukraine is crisis.'

    The dissolution of the parliament may be an obstacle for Ukraine in the integration with the West, and citizens may lose hope that any further elections can make a serious and lasting difference, Romanowski concluded."

    News from Poland - Ukraine - a cause for concern?

  11. #11
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    well snapper

    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    "2008-10-09, 14:26
    Pre-term elections to the Ukrainian parliament are a cause for concern, said Polish expert on eastern politics Wiesław Romanowski.
    Third elections over two years mean that Ukraine is not just temporarily in crisis, but the political chaos lingers on, Romanowski told Polish Radio.

    New elections will not bring to power any new parties so not much will change in terms of the political make-up in Ukraine, he said. It is Moscow, who benefits from the chaos, says Romanowski: 'It is not Yanukovich, nor Yushchenko, nor Timoshenko, who is the ally of Russia in Ukraine. The ally of Russia in Ukraine is crisis.'

    The dissolution of the parliament may be an obstacle for Ukraine in the integration with the West, and citizens may lose hope that any further elections can make a serious and lasting difference, Romanowski concluded."
    (he is somewhat wrong)
    News from Poland - Ukraine - a cause for concern?

    IF
    the elections occur in December, the most likely outcome is thus:

    Ukraine's President and his party get almost eliminated from parliament. (if they go below 5% they do not make it into the parliament and its possible)
    Even if they get 5-7% it would be devastating.

    Regions/Yanukovich will poll around 30 as always because their base will support them.

    Timoshenko has a chance to become dominant BUT also a chance to loose 1/3rd to a 1/2 of her support in the central regions to everyone else Lytvin, Communists, etc.

    Two things lately that have been creating insane ripples. There was a law passed with all parties except Presidents' supporting it.
    Kyiv Post. Independence. Community. Trust. » Homepage » Nation » Tymoshenko opposes government officials speaking Russian
    As Ukrainian News earlier reported, the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc voted with the Party of the Regions and the Communist Party on September 19 to approve the law on the civil service that allows government officials to speak Russian.
    (not allows, mandates the knowledge of both in order to be able to serve in south-east regions I think)

    The language issue is one of the biggest issues in Ukraine creating severe division. About 70% of the people would support Russian becoming a 2nd official language etc... The whole strategy was never to allow any law on language to ever be voted upon by nationalistic parties from the west of Ukraine. If Russian had a status of official language there would be very mild division in the country east/west wise. Nato also a divisive issue but way behind language.

    The second problem facing Ukraine is the coming bankruptcy. Basically they are totally skrud. If Ukraine goes to what Russia went through after the default with the division of the country right now it won't be a pretty picture. :(
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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    updates

    http://zik.com.ua/en/news/2008/10/09/153018

    Although the VR has been dismissed there is no funding for snap elections. The cabinet says there is no money in the state coffers for snap elections. Consequently, the Central Election Commission cannot give the start to campaigning. Personnel at voting stations will not work without pay, Petro Pysarchuk argued.
    Basically the elections were scheduled for December but they have no money for them. Since the Rada (Parliament was dismissed) the amending of the budge for the funds ahem does not look promising. Thats how I see it.

    http://zik.com.ua/en/news/2008/10/10/153207
    This I find a bit amusing. "His supporters in Donetsk" lol
    The Mayor is not exactly in presidents camp they tried to impeach him and put him in jail lol. He had to win twice in the elections (he isn't affiliated with any party btw).
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

  13. #13
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    "The presidential system has failed Ukraine. Ukraine needs to implement constitutional reform and adopt a system of Parliamentary democracy in line with other European States."

    Am inclined to agree with the comment from the first piece, but perhaps this is what people mean when they refer to some countries as having a "mature democracy" and it just takes times for countries to get party systems propperly established.

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