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  • Article from 'Aviation week'

    A piece of military analysis from Aviation week

    Georgian Military Folds Under Russian Attack | AVIATION WEEK


    Georgian Military Folds Under Russian Attack

    Aug 15, 2008
    By David A. Fulghum, Douglas Barrie, Robert Wall and Andy Nativi


    Miscalculations have defined the Georgian-Russian conflict. Georgia thought it could get away with occupying South Ossetia; Russia anticipated a militarily and politically painless counter-attack.

    All of these missteps are now connected to the huge, international concern about oil and the prizes it brings with it.

    Early reports indicate that pipelines running through Tbilisi from the Caspian Sea oil fields were targeted unsuccessfully by the Russian air force, which employed front-line Tu-22M3 bombers in the conflict. The stout Georgian air defenses, one of the few effective elements of the country's military, have shot down some Russian Su-25s with shoulder-fired, surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), say European-based U.S. officials. The heavier SA-11 Buk-1M also appears to have contributed to the Frogfoot strike-fighter losses and was certainly the cause of the Backfire bomber's loss, say U.S.-based analysts.

    In recent years, Russia has used the cutoff of oil exports to punish Latvia and Estonia. Intercepting or damaging the Georgian pipelines would be a heavy blow. But simply the insecurity to oil supplies that fighting in the region has triggered could do even greater harm, both to Georgia and the West, if investors chose to buy oil through more secure venues. Russia also fired at least 15 SS-21 Tochka/Scarab short-range ballistic missiles at Georgian military targets during Aug. 8-11, according to Washington-based U.S. officials. They have a range of 70-120 km. (43-75 mi.), enough to threaten the Black Sea oil terminal at Supsa, Georgia.

    At least one of the pipelines was also near the line of farthest advance by the Russian army between Gori and Tbilisi. Georgian officials thought the three major pipelines that go through Georgia would buy them political and economic stability and the support of the West, whose economies are being battered by high oil prices. However, these pipelines offer direct economic competition to Russian ones, so this could be a factor in Russia's overwhelming military foray.

    Russia relied on long-range tube and rocket artillery to reach targets well inside Georgia without having to commit large numbers of troops outside of South Ossetia. It also deployed the equivalent of a motor rifle division, says Felix K. Chang, a former Defense Dept. intelligence officer who is now a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. The force included units from the 58th Army, based nearby. These were reinforced by elements of the 76th Air Assault Div. from the Leningrad Military District and the 96th Airborne Div. and 45th Intelligence Regiment based in Moscow, says Chang. They are elite formations from Russia's strategic reserve that were in more than 100 airlift sorties.

    The World Bank-financed pipelines connect the Azer-Chirag-Gunehli oil fields in the Caspian Sea through Azerbaijan's Sangachal Terminal with oil terminals in Supsa and Ceyhan (Turkey) on the Mediterranean. The Russian offensive from the north through South Ossetia has cut the main east-west road at Gori in central Georgia. A second thrust by ground forces came from the breakaway region of Abkhazia in the west and cut the road again in western Georgia.

    U.S. analysts say Russian soldiers were operating in Georgian territory late last week, but without any intention of occupying the country. Russian President Dmitri Medvedev said Georgia had been taught a lesson and Russian troops would return to lines along the border between Georgia and the breakaway region of South Ossetia.

    U.S. defense officials point the finger of blame at the Georgians for the seemingly suicidal decision to push into South Ossetia, noting their almost complete disregard for Russian air superiority and ability to assemble and launch an overwhelming ground force. One possibility, they say, is that the Georgians hoped to take advantage of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's distraction with the Olympics to present him with the fait accompli of an occupation of South Ossetia's capital on his return.

    But the effort foundered as "Georgian command and control broke down" almost immediately after the initial foray, says a U.S. defense official. "We don't know if it was because of Georgian military incompetence or the result of an effective electronic and cyber-attack by the Russians."

    Georgia was hobbled by the fact that 2,000 of its 12,000 combat troops were in Iraq and it had the dual tasks of blocking Russian forces in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. European analysts say Georgian regular troops initially showed the results of years of training provided mainly by the U.S. NATO also provided a military assistance program intended to lead both Georgia and Ukraine toward NATO membership.

    The Georgian regulars performed well against South Ossetian irregulars, Russian reserves and peacekeepers, say European analysts, but were later pushed out of both Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The additional Russian forces included some of the elite mobile strategic forces, and its tank units could have easily reached Tbilisi. Georgian reinforcements were being delivered to the front by columns of civilian pickup trucks. Forces airlifted by U.S. C-17s from Iraq arrived with only their personal side arms.

    Early last week, U.S. analysts estimated that the 10,000 Russian troops in South Ossetia were supported by 150 T-62 (probably from reserve units) and T-72 tanks and 100 pieces of artillery. There also were reports of T-80 and T-90 tanks in action as Russian troops and equipment continued to cross the border into South Ossetia.

    A naval squadron of the Russian Black Sea Fleet at Sebastopol sallied to block any armament deliveries to Georgia, but without imposing a formal blockade or stopping oil shipments. The tiny Georgian navy tried to challenge the Russian vessels. Russian officials say that one or two Georgian attack boats were sunk.

    A mix of Su-25, Su-27 and Su-24 strike aircraft and Tu-22M3 bombers established "air superiority, but not air supremacy over Georgia," says a U.S. defense analyst, referring to the effectiveness of Georgian air defenses.

    Even in retreat and although suffering attacks on radar sites, Georgian air defenses appeared to be taking a steady toll of Russian aircraft. Russia admitted to losing four aircraft while the Georgians claim 14 shot down in the conflict. Last week they had admitted to the destruction of three Su-25 Frogfoot strike aircraft and the Backfire, said U.S. analysts.

    Photos from the combat area showed wreckage of the Tu-22 and a Frogfoot as well as a picture of the Backfire pilot in a Georgian hospital. The pilot was 50-year-old Col. Igor Zinov, a Tu-22M3 instructor stationed at the Flight Test Center at Akhtubinsk.

    The crew of three was assigned to the 929th GLITs (State Flight Test Center), and the aircraft's call sign was Bort No. 36, says a U.S. analyst. Zinov and another crewmember suffered spinal-compression injuries from the ejection and parachute landing. The copilot was killed. The Russian air force chose to use aircrew from places such as Akhtuýýbinsk due to their better flight test and weapons-employment experience compared with those in "line units," he said.

    "The Russians are using their A-Team, as expected," the analyst says.

    The Russians say they shot down a Georgian Frogfoot outside Eredvi in South Ossetia on Aug. 11. In a striking piece of irony, the Russians have twice bombed the Su-25 Frogfoot manufacturing plant on the outskirts of Tbilisi.

    A preliminary cease-fire agreement included the Russians right to keep forces, including strong contingents of combat troops, in the two separatist Georgian provinces.

  • #2
    That is not analysis...

    He did'nt mention 4th GA brigade bombed on the move
    He did not mention UAV's
    Nobody targeted pipeline

    Poit for the counter-attack was simple - save a city and civilians in Tshinval from being eliminated completely

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by lurker View Post
      That is not analysis...

      He did'nt mention 4th GA brigade bombed on the move
      He did not mention UAV's
      Nobody targeted pipeline

      Poit for the counter-attack was simple - save a city and civilians in Tshinval from being eliminated completely
      Never said I agree completely with everything in the article. However, this one at least contains some statistics and commentary from US military.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Shuriff View Post
        Never said I agree completely with everything in the article. However, this one at least contains some statistics and commentary from US military.
        My guess he relied just on official media in writing of this. So it's not really an analysis, it's just a summary.

        Comment


        • #5
          Can someone tell me - is it really so difficult to hit an oil pipline with a bomb? Georgians said RAF have made two attempts and both failed. Is it just stupid Georgian propaganda or awful Russian pilots?

          They scored a perfect hit in radar station but missed oil pipline? I find this statments about "missing" pipline ridiculous.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by I-War View Post
            Can someone tell me - is it really so difficult to hit an oil pipline with a bomb? Georgians said RAF have made two attempts and both failed. Is it just stupid Georgian propaganda or awful Russian pilots?

            They scored a perfect hit in radar station but missed oil pipline? I find this statments about "missing" pipline ridiculous.
            The radar station was probalby hit with a Russian ARM whic means a standoff attack. The first attack on the pipeline by the TU-22M3 was interuppted if reports of the backfires ordnance being detonated by the SAM are correct.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by zraver View Post
              The radar station was probalby hit with a Russian ARM whic means a standoff attack. The first attack on the pipeline by the TU-22M3 was interuppted if reports of the backfires ordnance being detonated by the SAM are correct.
              That's fine, but rises another question. RA troops right now are controlling most of the georgian territory. We could've just dissassambled it and sell it to scrap metal. Yet the pipeline is intact, at least BP says it is. And I dare to suppose that causious Turkish position is somewhat connected to this.

              And where did you get the info that Tu-22M3s were trying to bomb the pipeline? I must've missed it.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Shuriff View Post
                And where did you get the info that Tu-22M3s were trying to bomb the pipeline? I must've missed it.
                Saakashvili said so, and he is fire in lighthouse of democracy, and a liberty torch himself, so every his word is true, don't even try to argue!

                Comment


                • #9
                  What ever the TU-22M3 target was the raid was interrupted. Bombs did land near the pipeline. One possible reason for a miss is strong defenses.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by zraver View Post
                    What ever the TU-22M3 target was the raid was interrupted. Bombs did land near the pipeline. One possible reason for a miss is strong defenses.
                    There are numerous military targets on Georgia. That raid could've been directed to anything. Pipleline is quite a distributed target, so 'near the pileline' may well be near anything else. And once again - IF we'd want it to be destroyed, it would be destroyed, sooner or later, by another plane, by arty, by SS-21 or by land troops, for the matter. SO far its still intact.

                    Comment

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