Iran tests new weapon

[Stitch]

If tensions continue to build, do you guys think that the U.S. would be poised to send more attack subs, and surface vessels to the Straits to keep them safe?

Definitely; probably pretty much the same thing we did during the Iran-Iraq War back during Operation Earnest Will in the '80's, though: re-flag oil tankers and protect international shipping, especially the tankers, from attacks by the Iranians. I don't think subs would be necessary, they couldn't do much against Iran's fast-attack boats anyway, but some surface-action ships would be nice, maybe some Oliver Hazard Perry-class frigates, some Ticonderoga-class Aegis guided missle cruisers,and some PB Mark III patrol boats.

[Guest]

Kinda funny huh?! At the same time oil droped to around $120! Your probably right!

No, the oil - among other commodties such as gold - are dropping because the USD is getting stronger versus Yen and Euro. Commodties are traded in USD in NYMEX and COMEX.

My view is that with each intrest rate cut done by the Federal Reserve since last sept, USD was getting weaker and weaker, and the currency was dropping. As the market was getting worse, the financial institutions put their money in commodties. By commodties, I mean mostly crude oil, since there is so much liquidity in it. The pitch point was reached on Jan 20-23 2008, right around Martin Luther King holiday, when the Asian market collapsed, and the day after NYSE crashed. Two weeks after oil and Gold started to climbup, with oil passing the 100 $ from 90$, on its way to the tip of the superspike. Gold passed the 1,000 barrier build on the worries of regarding Bearn Stern.

Samething happened just a few weeks ago, but instead of Bearn Stern, it was Freddie and Fannie. The USD today is trading 1.54 against Europ right now. But, just two-three weeks ago Dow was on the edge of 10,900 level, oil at 145 $ and Gold at 970 $, and the USD was at an all time low of 1.59 against Euro.

I expect as US economy will be getting better the intrest rate to be increased - in the next year. That will cut through inflation and support the USD, probably bursting the bubble in oil. IMHO ofcourse.

[gunnut]

Posted by zraver: Enough second and third rate equipment is still a threat.

If that is the case, is it wiser for the U.S. to build a massive amount of 2nd and 3rd rate weapons just to save money to overwhelm an enemy?
Or build 1st rate weapons that limit the damage of 2nd and 3rd grade equipment?
Shoot, I know that an civil war cannon will damage to a new destroyer, but............

That's how we won WW2...except our "2nd rate" stuff wasn't that much worse than German's 1st rate stuff, and we enjoyed a 20:1 numerical advantage. Against the Japanese, our "2nd rate" stuff is better than their "1st rate" stuff by middle of the war, and we still out number them 20:1. :))

[zraver]

No, the oil - among other commodties such as gold - are dropping because the USD is getting stronger versus Yen and Euro. Commodties are traded in USD in NYMEX and COMEX.

My view is that with each intrest rate cut done by the Federal Reserve since last sept, USD was getting weaker and weaker, and the currency was dropping. As the market was getting worse, the financial institutions put their money in commodties. By commodties, I mean mostly crude oil, since there is so much liquidity in it. The pitch point was reached on Jan 20-23 2008, right around Martin Luther King holiday, when the Asian market collapsed, and the day after NYSE crashed. Two weeks after oil and Gold started to climbup, with oil passing the 100 $ from 90$, on its way to the tip of the superspike. Gold passed the 1,000 barrier build on the worries of regarding Bearn Stern.

Samething happened just a few weeks ago, but instead of Bearn Stern, it was Freddie and Fannie. The USD today is trading 1.54 against Europ right now. But, just two-three weeks ago Dow was on the edge of 10,900 level, oil at 145 $ and Gold at 970 $, and the USD was at an all time low of 1.59 against Euro.

I expect as US economy will be getting better the intrest rate to be increased - in the next year. That will cut through inflation and support the USD, probably bursting the bubble in oil. IMHO ofcourse.

Add the devaluing pressure of the war borrowing to that. If our budget deficit grows smaller the supply of dollars will get tighter causing its value to rise.

[Skywatcher]

It's probably just a C-803 mod the Iranians are talking about. It's not as if its a hypersonic UCAV or a anti shipping ballistic missile.

[zraver]

It's probably just a C-803 mod the Iranians are talking about. It's not as if its a hypersonic UCAV or a anti shipping ballistic missile.

No its a modified HY-2 silkworm call the Ra'ad not to be confused with the ATGM of the same name. It is sub-sonic with a 1/2 ton warhead and a 350km range. It can be probably be sued for anti-shipping missions like its proginator but will most likely be employed as a stand-off attack weapon like the Tomahawk since Iran already has the very capable C-802/Noor for long ranged attack along with Iran's inability to acquire and then provide targeting data on ships 350km away.

http://www.iranmilitaryforum.com/pic...0-Km-range.jpg

[Traxus]

Risk is quantified via insurance rates and price increases. As long as there is profit to be made, or a national government willing to risk its ships the passage will be attempted by someone. Historically the merchant mariners of the world carry around a couple of big brass ones if you know what I mean.

True enough. And the huge rise in oil prices should there be war would certainly make it very profitable.

[Guest]

Zraver, looks like the USD jumped up a lot against the Euro
It is now at 1.5071,
Expect gold and crude to tumble down.

Dollar extends 9-week high against euro - Aug. 7, 2008

True enough. And the huge rise in oil prices should there be war would certainly make it very profitable.

Very high oil price are definitly not profitable in the long run, when they kill the demand.

[NishanbazKhan]

Zraver, looks like the USD jumped up a lot against the Euro
It is now at 1.5071,
Expect gold and crude to tumble down.

Dollar extends 9-week high against euro - Aug. 7, 2008



Very high oil price are definitly not profitable in the long run, when they kill the demand.

gold has tumbled considerably in the past month. For a good part of 08 it was over $1000/oz now it's down to $857.30 as of this morning.

[Guest]

gold has tumbled considerably in the past month. For a good part of 08 it was over $1000/oz now it's down to $857.30 as of this morning.

That good part was more like about 10 trading days, no more

That bubble was burst when JP Morgan and Fed saved Bearn Sterns, and which infact told the market "We will not let the big financial go down the drain"

[NishanbazKhan]

That good part was more like about 10 trading days, no more

That bubble was burst when JP Morgan and Fed saved Bearn Sterns, and which infact told the market "We will not let the big financial go down the drain"

if you are refering to peak then yes, but still most of this year it was over $1000 an oz which meant if you missed the ball on the peak to sell you wouldn't be entirely sunk particularly if you had bought gold when it was around $300/oz back in the late 90s. Then again gasoline was under a dollar a gallon in some instances back then

[Guest]

Again, i am saying that you are incorrect.

Gold reach above 1,000 for a bit more than two weeks.

When it reached above 1,000 it was the first time, and when it fell in mid-March it was the last time it was over 1,000.

I have no idea where you get "but still most of this year it was over $1000 an oz"

We are in the month of August. and two-three weeks divided by numbers of weeks in the year so far, is far from most of this year

[NishanbazKhan]

my mistake, gold bullion operates a bit differently from bulk gold coins (kruggerands etc.) of which have been at or a little over $1000 (and are one ounce) for most of the year.

[Guest]

Are you a Gold trader?

[NishanbazKhan]

Are you a Gold trader?

not in so much, but dealer spot on bullion is typically between 10-15% depending on the coin. so bullion + 15% and you will see an ounce going for over $1000 more often than not even if gold is only at $900 and that is what I was basing this claim on.