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  • #46
    Zraver,

    As the person playing Paul Reverre as it concerns the Iranians, retaliation isnt thier strong suit. It implies the US acted first and in a US-Iran war who strikes first strikes hardest. Retaliation implies reaction, and after the 1st an second waves Iran won't have the number of assets it needs to both close the Strait, and then the much harder goal of keeping it closed vs an enemy at nearly full streangth. Iran's only hope is to get in some good blows early to knock back any US responce past the point the oil in transit reaches its ports of destination.
    The retaliation won't happen in a conventionnal way otherwise the only one that would be wiped off the map, or whatever the translation, would be the Iranian military. It would more likely take the shape of repeated and devastating terrorist attacks in Afghanistan, Iraq or Lebanon but not the straight of Hormuz, that would amount to tight the loose on the world's neck, leaving them completely alone. And anyway that would make more harm to their economy than anything else. The closing of the straight is just a gratuitous threat they can't possibly execute and they know it.

    There is quite the behind the scenes battle going on inside Iran. Cleric's loyal to the Supreme Leader have made some interesting comments about A-jad and there was a recent shake up of the Guards command. I think the clerics are finally realizing that men giing special rights in all three of the important spheres (military, economic, and political) are not loyal like dogs, but treacherous like snakes. We will probalby see soe serious bloodletting in a show down within the next 10 years or so. That beign said, the clercis find themselves wedded to the nuke issue as one of national pride. I don't think they think they can backdown without looking like they betray the people as long as the guards keep tooting the nuclear horn. I think they fel it might cause a politcal shift they don't want.
    I'm amazed when I read some posts which take it as granted that the Islamic Republic is like Nazi Germany, with one leader, a fanatized population marching like one man, stopping all its activities for the prayers and all resolved to destroy Israel even if it leads to the sacrifice of their own lives.In case people forgot, Iran is a democracy.

    Then the nuclear issue being as you say a national cause they can't back down. I would apply the same rehabiltation process Syria is curently experiencing without prior conditions. Years of tensions only strengthened Iran's standing in the ME. If the country turns nuclear that would amount to a "soft landing" if it does not, well, no more reasons to continue the saber rattling.

    I really wish the state department's experts were listened to. I know I can't be the only one traking the press blurbs about what cleric says what about who and drawing the conclusion that all is not right inside Iran. But US policy is backing the clerics into a corner instead of giving them a way to unravel the guards building grip on power.
    The Iranian presidency is only one factor among many (supreme leader, Iranian Guards, the business establishment, the public opinion..)when one has to take the gravest decision for this country which is, of course, a direct confrontation with the US. As the recent comments by Ahmaninedjad showed "I can assure you something certain, there will be no war in the future"

    PS. the Guards are now the single biggest economic and military force in Iran. They have the money and the guns.
    And they will obey the political and religious authorities, there's no pronunciamento in sight.
    Last edited by Oscar; 25 Jul 08,, 11:00.

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    • #47
      oscar,

      In case people forgot, Iran is a democracy.
      that one sentence just demonstrates you know squat all.
      There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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      • #48
        Try talking reason and facts with a liberal (world citizen) is like smashing your head against a brick wall.

        He's so tolerant and open-minded that he will not accept any different view points.
        "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

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        • #49
          Originally posted by astralis View Post
          oscar,



          that one sentence just demonstrates you know squat all.
          Iran is a democracy, it is at least as good as the US in the 1950's with Jim Crow, or modern day Israel and what amounts to Jim Crow vs Arabs. They have quite an elaborate set of checks and balances.

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          • #50
            Originally posted by Oscar View Post
            Zraver,



            The retaliation won't happen in a conventionnal way otherwise the only one that would be wiped off the map, or whatever the translation, would be the Iranian military. It would more likely take the shape of repeated and devastating terrorist attacks in Afghanistan, Iraq or Lebanon but not the straight of Hormuz,
            Devestating to whom? Not the US.

            that would amount to tight the loose on the world's neck, leaving them completely alone. And anyway that would make more harm to their economy than anything else. The closing of the straight is just a gratuitous threat they can't possibly execute and they know it.
            They can execute it, perhaps not easily but the threat is real. It is also the only way to strike at the American mainland.

            And they will obey the political and religious authorities, there's no pronunciamento in sight.
            Wanna bet? Lets ask the Ghosts of Caliphs and Sultans burned by the Janniseries or Mamluks, or the Emperors who ruled on the whim of the Pratorian Guard. Or even summon the Ghost of Kaiser Wilhelm who when told by the army to jump, jumped and then hoped it was high enough. History is pretty clear that who ever has the money and the power ends up ruling.

            Gold for the merchant, silver for the maid, copper for the craftsman skilled at his trade, but iron- cold iron to rule them all. Or in the modern world- power extends from the barel of a gun. The Guards have them the Clerics do not.

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            • #51
              Originally posted by zraver View Post
              Iran is a democracy, it is at least as good as the US in the 1950's with Jim Crow, or modern day Israel and what amounts to Jim Crow vs Arabs. They have quite an elaborate set of checks and balances.
              This would be a great comparison except the Presbyterian church didn't get to hand pick every candidate for both the Senate, Presidency and Congress. Nor extrapolating from your mention of the Jim Crow laws did the KKK.
              In Israel, Orthodox Jews don't get to hand pick everyone in the Knesset.
              The theocracy in Iran however, does precisely that, based on ethnicity, and religious fervor.
              In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

              Leibniz

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              • #52
                Originally posted by Parihaka View Post
                This would be a great comparison except the Presbyterian church didn't get to hand pick every candidate for both the Senate, Presidency and Congress. Nor extrapolating from your mention of the Jim Crow laws did the KKK.
                In Israel, Orthodox Jews don't get to hand pick everyone in the Knesset.
                The theocracy in Iran however, does precisely that, based on ethnicity, and religious fervor.
                They do not hand pic, they vett. Iran has even gone so far as to become a multi-party system. That is why there such a diverse opinion about so many things inside the Iranian political system. Minorites are also allotted seats automatically, woman can and do hold office etc. Iran has universal sufferage for its adults which brigns up an interestign point- the KKK picking candidates. From the end of reconstruction into the 1960's and later Southern states with large African American populations failed to have one of thier own elected, held down by some times white minorities who wrote and enforced all the laws the KKK could have wanted. Is Iran's democracy perfect? Not even close but it is a hell of a lot better than most of thier neighbors. President Bush has claimed Afghanistan has been brought democracy- yet thier system is centered on tribal ties more than popular opinion. In Iraq the Sunni and Shia are still trying to figure out how to let go of the blood debts. The other Arab countries are generally single person religious based monarchies. Russia to the north has turned back to single-man rule with Czar Putin I. Only Turkey has a functioning democracy, but in Turkey its the army not the church that holds the final say. Pakistan is the perpetual almost failing state.

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                • #53
                  Originally posted by zraver View Post
                  They do not hand pic, they vett. Iran has even gone so far as to become a multi-party system. That is why there such a diverse opinion about so many things inside the Iranian political system. Minorites are also allotted seats automatically, woman can and do hold office etc. Iran has universal sufferage for its adults which brigns up an interestign point- the KKK picking candidates. From the end of reconstruction into the 1960's and later Southern states with large African American populations failed to have one of thier own elected, held down by some times white minorities who wrote and enforced all the laws the KKK could have wanted. Is Iran's democracy perfect? Not even close but it is a hell of a lot better than most of thier neighbors. President Bush has claimed Afghanistan has been brought democracy- yet thier system is centered on tribal ties more than popular opinion. In Iraq the Sunni and Shia are still trying to figure out how to let go of the blood debts. The other Arab countries are generally single person religious based monarchies. Russia to the north has turned back to single-man rule with Czar Putin I. Only Turkey has a functioning democracy, but in Turkey its the army not the church that holds the final say. Pakistan is the perpetual almost failing state.
                  Sorry matey but all the other examples are irrelevant including the US one because the KKK influence was just that, an influence. In Iran, whether you call it vetting or hand picking, the effect is the same
                  The first round of the 2004 elections to the Majlis of Iran were held on February 20, 2004. Most of the 290 seats were decided at that time but a runoff was held 2 1/2 months later on May 7, 2004, for the remaining thirty-nine seats where no candidate gained sufficient votes in the first round. In the Tehran area, the runoff elections were postponed to be held with the Iranian presidential election of June 17, 2005.

                  The elections took place amidst a serious political crisis following the January 2004 decision to ban about 2500 candidates -- nearly half of the total -- including 80 sitting Parliament deputies. This decision, by the conservative Council of Guardians vetting body, "shattered any pretense of Iranian democracy," according to some observers.[1]

                  The victims of the ban were reformists, particularly members of the Islamic Iran Participation Front (IIPF), and included several leaders. In many parts of Iran, there weren't even enough independent candidates approved, so the reformists couldn't form an alliance with them. Out of a possible 285 seats (5 seats are reserved for religious minorities: Christians, Jews, and Zoroastrians), the participating reformist parties could only introduce 191 candidates. Some reformist parties, like the IIPF, announced that they would not vote (although they specially mentioned they are not boycotting the elections); however, some moderate reformists, including President Mohammad Khatami, urged citizens to vote in order to deny the conservative candidates an easy majority.

                  While many pro-reform social and political figures, including Shirin Ebadi, had asked people not to vote, the official turnout was about 51%. Even in Tehran and its suburbs, a stronghold of reformist sympathies, turnout was about 28%, and one of the conservative alliances, Etelaf-e Abadgaran-e Iran-e Eslami, won all of the city's 30 seats. There are rumors that some voters were transferred to Tehran or other big cities from other areas by some of the parties, and a claim that the Municipality of Tehran, whose mayor backed the same alliance, was advertising for the alliance illegally, using the government's budget.

                  The day before the election, the reformist newspapers Yas-e-no and Shargh were banned.

                  The preliminary results of the elections showed a victory by the conservatives. A basic comparison of the partial lists indicated that even among the seats where the reformist alliance had a candidate, only 28% (30 out of 107) were elected.
                  This is nodifferent than getting to vote for Saddam Hussein, or Saddam Hussein.
                  In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

                  Leibniz

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    Originally posted by zraver View Post
                    They do not hand pic, they vett. Iran has even gone so far as to become a multi-party system. That is why there such a diverse opinion about so many things inside the Iranian political system. Minorites are also allotted seats automatically, woman can and do hold office etc. Iran has universal sufferage for its adults which brigns up an interestign point- the KKK picking candidates. From the end of reconstruction into the 1960's and later Southern states with large African American populations failed to have one of thier own elected, held down by some times white minorities who wrote and enforced all the laws the KKK could have wanted. Is Iran's democracy perfect? Not even close but it is a hell of a lot better than most of thier neighbors. President Bush has claimed Afghanistan has been brought democracy- yet thier system is centered on tribal ties more than popular opinion. In Iraq the Sunni and Shia are still trying to figure out how to let go of the blood debts. The other Arab countries are generally single person religious based monarchies. Russia to the north has turned back to single-man rule with Czar Putin I. Only Turkey has a functioning democracy, but in Turkey its the army not the church that holds the final say. Pakistan is the perpetual almost failing state.

                    Zraver:

                    Iran is not a democracy; it's a theocracy. That is to say that any law passed by its democratically elected legislature can be struck down by a religious body and any action taken by the president can be reversed. And the decision is final.

                    You call this a system of checks and balances. It may be so from a theocratic poitn of view but it is similar only in name to the US constitutional concept of checks and balances. Take the presidential veto; it can be overridden by Congress, but in Iran the Grand Ayatolla's veto is final. In the US system, a law once on the books cannot be arbitrarily removed like in Iran. It either has to be declared unconstitutional by the courts or repealed by Congress.

                    I am not sure why you brought the KKK and Jim Crow laws into the issue. Had they been theocratically established we would probably still have them. Many religious leaders back in those days thought that separation of the races was ordained by God and they could find Biblical verses to support their argument. It was our democratic system that prevailed over racial bias and purged Jim Crow laws from the books.

                    One other thing about Iran that clearly shows it has a theocratic system is its religious police. They can arrest Iranians who dress improperly or behave in any way contrary to Islamic law. Protestors have little leeway. Newspapers are closely watched. Also, the vetting of candidates in Iran is totally undemocratic. Vetting is not the role of the government in our democracy; it's done by the parties, the media and the voters.
                    To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

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                    • #55
                      [QUOTE=zraver;521390]

                      Gold for the merchant, silver for the maid, copper for the craftsman skilled at his trade, but iron- cold iron to rule them all.

                      Kipling, of course! :) My favourite poet.
                      I went to my bookshelves to read it through. Too long for me to type one-fingered here unfortunately.
                      ("Cold Iron" - Rewards and Fairies )
                      "Gold is for the mistress-silver for the maid-
                      Copper for the craftsman cunning at his trade"
                      "Good" said the Baron, sitting in his hall,
                      "But Iron, Cold Iron- is master of them all".

                      I like the fifth verse:

                      "Tears are for the craven, prayers are for the clown-
                      Halters for the silly neck that cannot keep a crown".
                      As my loss is grievous, so my hope is small,
                      For Iron - Cold Iron -is master of men all."
                      Semper in excretum. Solum profunda variat.

                      Comment


                      • #56
                        Originally posted by glyn View Post
                        I went to my bookshelves to read it through. Too long for me to type one-fingered here unfortunately
                        Gold is for the mistress -- silver for the maid --
                        Copper for the craftsman cunning at his trade.
                        "Good!" said the Baron, sitting in his hall,
                        "But Iron -- Cold Iron -- is master of them all."

                        So he made rebellion 'gainst the King his liege,
                        Camped before his citadel and summoned it to siege.
                        "Nay!" said the cannoneer on the castle wall,
                        "But Iron -- Cold Iron -- shall be master of you all!"

                        Woe for the Baron and his knights so strong,
                        When the cruel cannon-balls laid 'em all along;
                        He was taken prisoner, he was cast in thrall,
                        And Iron -- Cold Iron -- was master of it all!

                        Yet his King spake kindly (ah, how kind a Lord!)
                        "What if I release thee now and give thee back thy sword?"
                        "Nay!" said the Baron, "mock not at my fall,
                        For Iron -- Cold Iron -- is master of men all."

                        Tears are for the craven, prayers are for the clown --
                        Halters for the silly neck that cannot keep a crown.
                        "As my loss is grievous, so my hope is small,
                        For Iron -- Cold Iron -- must be master of men all!"

                        Yet his King made answer (few such Kings there be!)
                        "Here is Bread and here is Wine -- sit and sup with me.
                        Eat and drink in Mary's Name, the whiles I do recall
                        How Iron -- Cold Iron -- can be master of men all!"

                        He took the Wine and blessed it. He blessed and brake the Bread,
                        With His own Hands He served Them, and presently He said:
                        "See! These Hands they pierced with nails, outside My city wall,
                        Show Iron -- Cold Iron -- to be master of men all."

                        "Wounds are for the desperate, blows are for the strong.
                        Balm and oil for weary hearts all cut and bruised with wrong.
                        I forgive thy treason -- I redeem thy fall --
                        For Iron -- Cold Iron -- must be master of men all!"

                        Crowns are for the valiant -- sceptres for the bold!
                        Thrones and powers for mighty men who dare to take and hold.
                        "Nay!" said the Baron, kneeling in his hall,
                        "But Iron -- Cold Iron -- is master of men all!
                        Iron out of Calvary is master of men all!"
                        In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

                        Leibniz

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                        • #57
                          Well done, Harry! :)
                          Semper in excretum. Solum profunda variat.

                          Comment


                          • #58
                            Originally posted by astralis View Post
                            oscar,

                            that one sentence just demonstrates you know squat all.
                            Perhapes, Oscar, is thinking "relative" to others in the region, and not counting Israel and Turkey. or maybe he meant saying "Iran was a democracy", who knows ...

                            In anycase, the clerics after 20 years of enjoying power and wealth, have become ..... business minded, much like your own politicians, wether you like to admit it or not. They will do things that are good for business. War is not good for business (Iranian point of view), because they dont own an arms industry that will profit from them, and last I checked none of the clerics in Iran are shareholders of Raytheon. Therefore, ....

                            Unfortunatly, clerics still wear their religious turban, beard etc. thereby radiating that "ayatollah" symbol that you guys hate so much. Guards are the fanatics and the threat. I have been saying that for two years, while you guys been sitting here dicussing how the Ayatollah like to spread their religion far and wide, with A-jad as their spearhead and sword, and with their first blow coming in the form of a nuclear attack on Isreal that will dawn the coming of the 12th Imam.
                            Last edited by xerxes; 26 Jul 08,, 15:30.

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                            • #59
                              Sorry for the late reply, Iran is an illiberal democracy but it is, like or not, a democracy. Its head of state and its Parliament is directly elected by the people. There are liberal, centrist and conservative parties, not like in the West but they exist, and a liberal president was elected before A-jad. The unelected Supreme leader is the guardian of the legacy of the Revolution/Islamic Law and he censors the laws or the executive orders of the Parliament and the President if he deems them contrary to a certain body of rules and traditions. Well just like the Constitutionnal Courts and the Supreme courts of the Western democracies. But the people is represented and have a say in the political decisions, even Jews have representatives.

                              For the theocratic part, every arab country in the region has the Shariah as the main source of Law and traditionnal kingdoms have religious police too but the difference with Iran being that they are all authoritarian dictatorships or absolute monarchy (with maybe the exception of Lebanon and Iraq).
                              Last edited by Oscar; 26 Jul 08,, 17:27.

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                              • #60
                                For the analogy with the US in the 50's: Who would say that America was not a democracy at this time? nonetheless the police in certain Southern states had to enforce racial laws (you could go to jail for flirting with a white woman) and segregation in order to preserve the purity of the white race !!and it lasted until the middle of the 60's. No one said that Iran was a model of a democracy but neither was the US at this time and we don't call Roosevelt or Truman racist dictators even if they did very little or not enough to adress this issue. So no need to evilify Iran because there are many Arab countries friendly to the US which happen to be more backward than this country.
                                Last edited by Oscar; 26 Jul 08,, 17:22.

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