Report: Iran Begins War Game With Warning to U.S., Israel

[zraver]

Now, Iran could launch ballistic missiles against 5th fleet headquarters in Bahrain. I would imagine our response would be very swift and far more devastaing. It would come from Air Force and Naval air assets, along with cruise missiles launched from surface ships and subs.

How so? We are not going to hold back on Iran even if they don't fight back. So if they rock Bahrain were exactly is the devestating responce going to come from? With the way the US fights modern wars when combined with limited mkilitary assets in any one place means the only posible escalation of force is nukes.

[Johnny W]

How so? We are not going to hold back on Iran even if they don't fight back. So if they rock Bahrain were exactly is the devestating responce going to come from? With the way the US fights modern wars when combined with limited mkilitary assets in any one place means the only posible escalation of force is nukes.

My point was that the US response would be more devasting (or severe if you will) than the results of a Iranian attack on US Fifth Fleet HQ at Bahrain. Even without nukes, one Carrier could do a lot more damage than the Iranian missiles (basically improved Scuds) could do against the base in Bahrain.

[Dreadnought]

IED's can be made out of anythign that explodes and Iraq had a lot of unused ordnace laing around. But, I think you mant EFP's. Unlike an AK-47 or an RPG the EFP does not come with a serial number and is so simple anyone who can work copper can make one.

*IN the case of the Efp's And would anyone who could simply work copper make something so uniform that it has soldered joints, exact shape and size throughout and even paint it a dark green (military)? Why go to such lengths even in its painting when it would be better to go with a dessert color such as cammo. Even Gates supports this proof?

And your point is? We hosted Chalabi.

*But Chalabi dont have a terrorist army and is not responsible for what is happening in Iraq while giving orders from Iran. Thats the exact point!

What is the differance between Hezzbollah and say the Contras?

*Hezbollah rockets civilian villages on a daily basis because the are Jews. Hezbollah is a terrorist plain out undeniable fact. We are not discussing the Contras.

Not true at all, the term Iran decends from Land of the Aryans and has been known as such since before Rome was built. Persia is merely the name of the state, not the nation.

*A quote:
"During ancient times almost every foreigner referred to the entire country as PERSIA until March 21, 1935, when Reza Shah Pahlavi asked the international community to call the country Iran - a name that the people of Persia, themselves, used to refer to their country since the Sassanian period. "Iran" means "Land of Aryans". The name Persia is still widely used by many Iranians (pronounced: Eeh-raa-nian) worldwide as well as in many books, documentaries, movies, etc.."

The US Government approved the export licences (which also gave the green light to Holland and Germany), provided targetign data, sent Rumsfeld on a freindship visit after he started using gas etc. Saddam's gas is our baby.

*Saddams gas was the baby of the men that are sitting in prison, Look at how many other things such as surplus parts etc have left this country un-noticed until they were caught and prosecuted. The U.S. is not and has not been in the business of selling WMD. The chemicals it requires were not looked upon individually as you will find that is exactly how they were exported. Try doing that since then and see where you land.

You didn't, I did. The US has been working on a network take down technology.I am claiming we shut Syria down, and Israel dropped the bombs.

*Dont know where you are going with this statement.

Iran only has to last 3 weeks and the oil runs out. From day 1 of a war the cost of oil will skyrocket, our wages won't. $400-600-800 dollars a barrel will ruin my family, and jsut about everyone I know. What good is going to war if we can't win it becuase of oil prices make our home front vulnerable?

*Iran cannot process its own oil into fuel as easily as you think. If you think that I am not stating the truth then look it up. Iran must export a majority of its oil to be processed to gasoline because it does not possess the processing ability for it to become independent as you seem to think. There are articles with Iranians not only waiting in long gas lines but rioting as well. Do you see that here? Are there rioters in the streets? That does not seem to relate the fact that they themselves are oil carefree. And also if you choose to look it up exactly where the majority of U.S. oil imports come from.
Saudi Arabia is second on the list, Iraq is sixth.

*In more common sense do you really think that 40% of the worlds oil market will allow Iran to close the Straights (1/2 dont belong to them and certainly would be considered an act of war) to the rest of the world while they try to barder about their U.N. problems? IMO chances are all of those nations are sending their respective military forces to the region and Iran certain to be on the loosing end.

*Heres a bit of reassurance for you, you will never see oil 400-600-800 a barrel and why is that? Do you realize that a conserted effort by the many would bottom OPEC in a matter of weeks. We see (compared to many) little damage from the oil prices, Imagine those that really see the distress and when our economy dips its sometimes bankrupts other nations. The Saudis which are pretty much the voice of the ME dont want their economy plummeting and thats why you wont see prices that high in yourt life time and probably not your chidrens either, By then better forms of energy.

Russia sees Iran as a future satellite state. Russia's talk about the missile shiled is really meant for domestic markets to free yup money for the military which i still under-funded.

*Russia sees anybody who was not a former satellite as a future satellite. I doubt that would suceed especially with the culture clash and their trck record so far with India doesnt look so good neither. Culture clash again perhaps? Selling military hardware does not make a satellite until you have people in the powerchain and with the two different cultures I doubt you ever will.

We have to get all 3 in a line, Iran only needs one to say no.

*And just think Russia is considering opting out of the U.N. because of comments made what then?;)

And none of that has jack to do with the illegal settlement building.

*Perhaps maybe their way of thinking is to keep pushing them back (compressing them) until their own people start rooting out Hezbollah. You have read that they have finally arrested one of the missle barrage groups. They will have to do alot more then that before they get any consessions but as you notice they are doing as of this week. They arent fooling anybody.

what, 800 billion borrowed on 30year notes. My son is 12, 12+30= 42 if the war ended today.

*Just how much EXACTLY have you ,yourself paid for WWII, Korea, Vietnam, ODShield,ODStorm and the WOT thus far? Do you have a reciept? Personally for being alive for quite a few of them I cannot recall ever paying the check but our military did and then some.

[Deltacamelately]

Z,
Al Sadr is bygone threat. So let's not lose our sleep over it.
Iran's best asset are its some 600 around, SSMs. But then ther are a few questions.
1. Will Iran risk firing all/,ost of them at US assets in the gulf, the Bahrain HQ or Israel and then be a sitting duck bulking under hell fire that the USAF and USN will shower?
2. Ballistic missiles are wholesomely inaccurate against mobile naval assets, so will Iran blink twice? The consequences are not worth dreaming even.
3. After the 1st and 2nd wave of cruise missiles and bomber rampage, how much mated devices can Iran actually mobilise?
4. Will Iran cross the threshold and try hit the Knessete, knowing the consequences and even the chances of simmering under a Israeli nuke?

Z, don't read too much in the tanker war. They don't have the variables in their advantage. They can utmost try put in some mines but that's dealable.
Once the islands are taken, from which they will mobilise their surface attack boats, they lose their sole offensive-defence capability.

After that, those buggers are dead meat.

[Deltacamelately]

Z,
You there?

[zraver]

Z,
You there?

major computer issues, be back first or secod week of August

[Deltacamelately]

major computer issues, be back first or secod week of August

Fine there. :)
I will be manning the post till then. :))

[Bella]

IRT your second question, I don't think Israel relies on the Patriots anymore. They use the Arrow missile system now, which is suppose to be a big improvement over the Patriots used in Gulf War I. Hopefully we never find out if the Arrow really is effective.

Not sure what you mean irt 5th fleet. Ballistic missile cannot be used against Naval assets, since they are designed for use against stationary targets. Iran's best weapons against the US Navy are suicide style weapons, mines, land launched cruise missiles, and submarines (although I can't see the Iranians risking their subs against the US).

Now, Iran could launch ballistic missiles against 5th fleet headquarters in Bahrain. I would imagine our response would be very swift and far more devastating. It would come from Air Force and Naval air assets, along with cruise missiles launched from surface ships and subs.

Arrow Missile?? I will google it or something!!:) Sorry! I am trying to learn everyday!!

I know ballistic missiles against the 5th fleet are useless, but I was just stating what someone else was threating...

I'm sorry..........I just get frustrated sometimes with these forums!.........

[zraver]

Z,
Al Sadr is bygone threat. So let's not lose our sleep over it.
Iran's best asset are its some 600 around, SSMs. But then ther are a few questions.
1. Will Iran risk firing all/,ost of them at US assets in the gulf, the Bahrain HQ or Israel and then be a sitting duck bulking under hell fire that the USAF and USN will shower?

Use them or lose them. prime targets will probably be where they think they cans wamp defenses and do mass causalties in order to wage ar on the American psychi.

2. Ballistic missiles are wholesomely inaccurate against mobile naval assets, so will Iran blink twice? The consequences are not worth dreaming even.

Naval assets ae not the only target, older missiles can at least eat ABM missiles that could be used agaisnt new more capable platforms and the US responce won't go up or down regadless of what Iran does short of using a WMD.

3. After the 1st and 2nd wave of cruise missiles and bomber rampage, how much mated devices can Iran actually mobilise?

Big question, and hard to answer. Scud hunting is almost completely useless if we go by 1991 standards, and Iran has a lot more systems to use. I think it is safe to say Iran will retain a credible missile threat up to the last day of the war. Road mobile systems are so durable the best defense isn't hunting the launchers but nailing the missiles themselves in flight.

4. Will Iran cross the threshold and try hit the Knessete, knowing the consequences and even the chances of simmering under a Israeli nuke?

I don't think Israel can reach Iran with enough fire to do anything, they won't go nuclear over a symbolic attack. I think Iran will fire missiles at Israel for domestic politcal reasons if nothing more.

Z, don't read too much in the tanker war. They don't have the variables in their advantage. They can utmost try put in some mines but that's dealable.
Once the islands are taken, from which they will mobilise their surface attack boats, they lose their sole offensive-defence capability.

After that, those buggers are dead meat.

The one thing Iran did right was buold up a multi-platform anti-shipping capability. Mines, missiles, FACs, boghammers, subs, suiide sqauds, multiple Island and off shore guidence platforms, sabotuers etc. So the US is not facig just one threat type but what Iran hopes is an overwhelming number of varied platforms so that at least enough works to achieve its goals. The US faces the dilema of having to stop everything Iran throws at it. I think its doalbe, specially if the US starts first, but it wont be a walk in the park. Possibly even a capitol ship.

[Deltacamelately]

Use them or lose them. prime targets will probably be where they think they cans wamp defenses and do mass causalties in order to wage ar on the American psychi.

They might try hit some of the stationary assets in Bahrain, but I don't see them doing any significant mass casualty thing.

Naval assets ae not the only target, older missiles can at least eat ABM missiles that could be used agaisnt new more capable platforms and the US responce won't go up or down regadless of what Iran does short of using a WMD.

Sure the will eat up some, but then the US will be prepared with the homwork done in numbers. Plus they will have to watch their a$$ while they start throwing those sticks. The upgraded ABMs will takecare of the bulk imo.

Big question, and hard to answer. Scud hunting is almost completely useless if we go by 1991 standards, and Iran has a lot more systems to use. I think it is safe to say Iran will retain a credible missile threat up to the last day of the war. Road mobile systems are so durable the best defense isn't hunting the launchers but nailing the missiles themselves in flight.

True!
The best strategy will be to start early, even surprise them. Pound each and every probable launching site/rail/road/asset, with overwhelming firepower and leave the rest to the ABMs.

I don't think Israel can reach Iran with enough fire to do anything, they won't go nuclear over a symbolic attack. I think Iran will fire missiles at Israel for domestic politcal reasons if nothing more.

A lot will depend on the degree of public/internal political outrage and thirst for blood of the Israelis. The don't have the range in their favour, but that can be substantiated if they decide to bring in the subs.

The US faces the dilema of having to stop everything Iran throws at it. I think its doalbe, specially if the US starts first, but it wont be a walk in the park. Possibly even a capitol ship.

I couldn't agree more. It will be tricky as hell, but then they risk surviving as a functional system. The Arab world will be relieved at the least.
Your Views.

[zraver]

They might try hit some of the stationary assets in Bahrain, but I don't see them doing any significant mass casualty thing.

economics of scale is in play here. They get a golden BB and kill 28 troops and all hell might break loose. The US is very causalty sensative, especially in an election year.

Sure the will eat up some, but then the US will be prepared with the homwork done in numbers. Plus they will have to watch their a$$ while they start throwing those sticks. The upgraded ABMs will takecare of the bulk imo.

Who has more missiles in theater. Its a numbers game. If it takes 2 ABM missiles to insure a kill and Iran has just 25 more missiles then we do, then Iran has 25 chances to get a golden BB.


True!
The best strategy will be to start early, even surprise them. Pound each and every probable launching site/rail/road/asset, with overwhelming firepower and leave the rest to the ABMs.[/quote]

I wouldn't even hunt them, at least not early on. Use the avaible tac air for the fight in the PG and to support the US Army and USMC in Iraq.

A lot will depend on the degree of public/internal political outrage and thirst for blood of the Israelis. The don't have the range in their favour, but that can be substantiated if they decide to bring in the subs.

No subs without US permission. Israel won't risk losing a Dolphin to a Virginia on war patrol. An interestign thought is the US using ABM assets to shoot down Israeli jerichos to soothe Arab feathers, it would be great PR on the Arab street. US Patriot block III's nailing Jerichos over Iraq. A clear this is not just another Zionist war on Islam type of statement.

I couldn't agree more. It will be tricky as hell, but then they risk surviving as a functional system. The Arab world will be relieved at the least.
Your Views.

If war comes, that risk is already in play so it won't afect the actual fighting.

[Deltacamelately]

economics of scale is in play here. They get a golden BB and kill 28 troops and all hell might break loose. The US is very causalty sensative, especially in an election year.

I will agree to that. But now that the US forces are fighting a low intensity war in Afghanistan, the US administration as well as the US public have to learn to live with causalities. Our 2 decade COIN experience has taught us that. Not to say that we don't have reservations about casualities.

Who has more missiles in theater. Its a numbers game. If it takes 2 ABM missiles to insure a kill and Iran has just 25 more missiles then we do, then Iran has 25 chances to get a golden BB.

That's my point. However, I think there is a big incentive in starting early.

No subs without US permission. Israel won't risk losing a Dolphin to a Virginia on war patrol. An interestign thought is the US using ABM assets to shoot down Israeli jerichos to soothe Arab feathers, it would be great PR on the Arab street. US Patriot block III's nailing Jerichos over Iraq. A clear this is not just another Zionist war on Islam type of statement.

I am not contesting that. The US nod is the ace in hand. Without that, Israel could do little to alter the course of conflict. And yes, it would be a big PR victory.

If war comes, that risk is already in play so it won't afect the actual fighting.

I am not saying that it will have any big bearing over the actual fighting. My pov is, who will blink first? They have a million dollar question to answer vis-a-vis their existence as a viable and functional system before they decide to cross the rubicon.

[Deltacamelately]

Who has more missiles in theater. Its a numbers game.

Z,
Is this with the same line of reasoning that you offered in the China India context of killing a ship with 5 Brahmos?
Numbers are important, no doubt, but what about the accuracy and range?
China deploying over 800 SRBMs in Fujian is just playing the number game?

[zraver]

Z,
Is this with the same line of reasoning that you offered in the China India context of killing a ship with 5 Brahmos?
Numbers are important, no doubt, but what about the accuracy and range?
China deploying over 800 SRBMs in Fujian is just playing the number game?

Similar but not the same. With the Brahmos the issue is dodging so you simply ripple fire and send out a spread. In a case of Ashm vs an anti-missile force or FAC's vs USN surface combatants its a more classic numbers game. Lets say the Noor has a 10% success rate under war conditions vs US ECM. If the US has 500 missiles to shoot down Iranian missiles and they ripple fire 2 each to insure a 100% kill then for every 10 missiles past 250 Iran has they get 1 hit on a US warship or a tanker. If Iran has 500 missiles thats 25 impacts. Even if nothing is sunk that is a lot of dead sailors and billions in damage.

Like wise vs the FAC's Iran has at least 200 are armed with at least 2 anti-ship weapons each. The FAC's are very fast and if they sortie in large numbers some will reach attack range. Lets say 1/4 or 50 boats get their shots off before being sunk and the same 10% hit rate applies. Thats 10 more hits some of which may be full size 533mm torps that can individually sink any ship smaller than a carrier or super tanker by breaking its keel. Plus less throw the mines in there. Iran's very loosely laid mine belts got several ships including 1 USN ship in the 1980's. Lets say Iran's massive sea mine arsenal only gets one hit thats another warship out of commission.

So If Iran trades its entire naval force and anti ship missile force it gets 35 hits of varying damage and 1 mine strike. Now apply that to a USN surface group either carrier or amphib and thats a hell of a blow. Imagine if you will a 533mm torp slamming into the Tarawa as it supports USMC actions off the Tunds. Or an Arliegh Burke eating 2 or 3 Noor/C-803 missiles. Or even a golden BB a missile hitting a carrier in a vulnerable spot. It wont change the ultimate out come of the war but the price the US has to pay just went sky high.

[Deltacamelately]

I got your point. Will get back with the details.