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Thread: China-Tibet Threads

  1. #871
    Contributor anil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tronic View Post
    Only hinterland India's history has been "uneventful". Ask anyone living in the periphery states, from the North West to the North East; it's been anything but uneventful.
    Yes the punjabi insurgency left behind very colourful events. I wonder if it has indeed ended.

    The north-east looks like a mini-afghanistan to me with various ethnic groups prying for dominance. There are three entities here - the military, the dominant insurgent group and the splinter insurgent groups. The insurgents are lumped in ethnic portions. All three fight against each other and this makes the place very volatile and sensitive.

    Our policy in these parts has been to talk to the dominant insurgent groups and let them run their territory their own way in lieu of ceasefire. This gives the military some space to neutralize the splinter groups. Progress has been made for eg: the nagaland govt is actually a front org of nscn(im), a dominant insurgent group who has joined politics which is a good start. The manipur govt was chosen over the insurgent groups even though it is a corrupt one. I'd say that it has been "eventful" but in the right direction.

    Quote Originally Posted by Tronic View Post
    What am I looking at?
    The most unlikely candidates to experiment with for the creation of nation states

  2. #872
    Liberté, Unité, Egalité Senior Contributor Tronic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ambidex View Post
    That was bad on GoI's part.


    That was very bad on GoI's part, no doubt about it.


    That worked, isn't it ?

    That was great move by GoI. I will always like to see a government 'imposed' this way when hostility is high and boycott of the Union is prevalent. Those who were boycotting are sitting in LA and enjoying the power today. Back to normal.
    Yes, the government corrected it's mistake by opening up the political space in Punjab again, but it's always important to take notice that those mistakes came at a very big cost; including erosion of the GoI's legitimacy in that state.

    The intent of my original post was to check anil's assertion that, "china is several decades behind when it comes to "nation building", as he asserted that China's history with secessionists has seen more turbulence than India ("eventful" vs "uneventful"). India's political history too has been very volatile. Heck, India almost became a full dictatorship in the mid '70s.

    One advantage I will hand to India over China is that it is a democracy, albeit with authoritarian tendencies, but still a democracy which gives space for dissenting voices to be heard. This allows an alternate channel for a lot of simmering tensions to be released.
    Last edited by Tronic; 11 Jul 13, at 08:23.
    The real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new lands but seeing with new eyes.

  3. #873
    Liberté, Unité, Egalité Senior Contributor Tronic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by anil View Post
    Our policy in these parts has been to talk to the dominant insurgent groups and let them run their territory their own way in lieu of ceasefire. This gives the military some space to neutralize the splinter groups.
    Which territories have been willingly ceded to insurgent groups?

    Progress has been made for eg: the nagaland govt is actually a front org of nscn(im), a dominant insurgent group who has joined politics which is a good start. The manipur govt was chosen over the insurgent groups even though it is a corrupt one. I'd say that it has been "eventful" but in the right direction.
    Insurgents are also political actors with political goals. Dropping the bullet to contest the ballot to achieve their political ends is always a positive development. Good for the Indian government to finally give them the space, and good for the dissenting parties to show trust in the GoI.
    The real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new lands but seeing with new eyes.

  4. #874
    Contributor anil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tronic View Post
    Which territories have been willingly ceded to insurgent groups?
    Those areas with too many players. Back in the day there were few players but they weren't competent so talks were stalled. Today they have splintered into many so comprehensive talks are not possible. The nscn(im) is to delhi what the pashtuns are to pakistan. This article will help explain the situation:

    Chasing a chimeric peace - The Hindu

    Quote Originally Posted by Tronic View Post
    Insurgents are also political actors with political goals. Dropping the bullet to contest the ballot to achieve their political ends is always a positive development. Good for the Indian government to finally give them the space, and good for the dissenting parties to show trust in the GoI.
    They have joined politics but they have still not dropped their guns. The problem is external as well as internal(ethnic). That's why it'll take generations to solve.

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    Eurasian Economic Union Backs China


    It's a well-known fact that Donald Trump and his loyalists even at the pre-election campaign stage didn't hide the desire to start a large-scale scandal with China related to a disproportion of external trade and an artificial decline in the Yuan provided by Beijing. Frankly speaking, the overwhelming majority of spectators considered Trump's policy to be a populist pre-election rhetoric reckoned on dull rednecks who often fall for populist xenophobic appeals. If a usual external political struggle grows into a full-scale trade war the losses of the United States will be enormous. The strike will be delivered to the traditional spheres of American export to China – high-tech industry (civil aircraft, smartphones, etc.) and agricultural sector (half of American soybeans falls on Chinese market). Also the price increase in American retail first of all will damage Trump's voters – the groups of disadvantaged Americans.

    However, the life laughed again at all the wise theorists' calculations. Not only was it impossible to predict Donald Trump's activity on the basis of the common sense (it's enough to recall the missile attack of American cowboys against a Syrian water station, also the North Korean psycho juggling nuclear bombs poured oil into the fire. Due to the military games of fat and spoiled boy Kim, Beijing found itself in an awkward position. Uncle Donald exerts pressure on Uncle Xi exposing an ultimatum – China either imposes oil embargo to strangle North Korean economy, or gets involved into a trade war with the United States and observes a real war next door. It seems like Chinese "uncle" ups the ante. It's not that Chinese leader has tender feelings for the Pyongyangian overgrown child who plays with nuclear edge-tools, but every Chinese "mandarin" has a fear determined by the national mindset – the fear of losing public face. That's why it's virtually impossible to evade the conflict.

    Who will win in a trade war? According to the quantity of the pro-Chinese articles, Beijing doesn't grudge the money to create an expression of its inevitable win in the infosphere. That propaganda uses, inter alia, the arguments put in the beginning of this article. However, the reality isn't as good as Chinese comrades wanted it to be. Apple and Boeing will lose a great trading area, but won't crash. American disadvantaged people will become more depleted. The middle-class will also suffer. However, people who are accustomed not to hang upon guiding party's lips but used to rely on themselves, people whose ancestors survived during the Great Depression will not consider a temporary drop in income as a catastrophe. The same can't be said for the Chinese people who have been getting over a paternalistic model of government since the childhood and who have grown fat for the last 10-15 years. The loss of such a richest market as the USA will lead to a real disaster for the economy of the Middle Kingdom. The fact is that the main thing for the global economy is not the industry, but the outlet area. American industrial facilities' mobilization to the overpopulated Southeast Asia region with lots of countries where people are desperating for money will be accepted with enthusiasm. Except for Asia, there's Mexico just steps from the US border with its great spare workforce capacity. It will be extremely difficult for China to search out broad markets for its products, especially if Washington threatens sanctions against global business related with the import from China.

    And thus, the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) goes out of the shadows to the forestage which member countries form a united market with a size of 180 million people. This storage facility of course won't replace totally the loss of the US market but it's capable to play a role of a safety cushion for Chinese economy. It's possible that namely the feeling of Eurasian togetherness gives Beijing a possibility to act from the position of strength even being under the sword of Damocles, which is economic war against America.

  6. #876
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    Hmm DOR?

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