With the cries of recession being howled, I figured it would be a good time to whip out the common statistics (seasonally adjusted) that measure the macroeconomy.
Unemployment - 4.9% (down from 5.1% in Dec and Jan)
Consumer Price Index (inflation) - no change from Jan, with the extrapolated annual rate from the prior 3 months equating to a 3.1% inflation rate
Core Inflation (CPI minus fuel and food - this is what the Fed tracks to make its decisions) - 2.2% (holding steady and just barely above the 2% mark that the Fed likes)
Growth (Real GDP) - 0.6% in 4th quarter 2007
Unemployment is still at or below the natural rate of unemployment. Inflation is a concern but appears to be holding steady at the high end of the comfort zone.
Growth is sluggish, but forecasts call for it to pick up in the coming quarters.
While the sensationalized cases like Bear Stearns and the constant drumbeat of the housing market make it seem like the economy is down the tubes, the current performance speaks otherwise about the economy in the aggregrate (which isn't to say that certain parts of the country aren't feeling pain). It will be interesting to see how things play out, but it makes me wonder whether there might end up being a self-fufilling prophecy element to any potential recession.
Here are two diverging opinions on where the economy is headed:
U.S. faces severe recession: NBER's Feldstein - Yahoo! News
UCLA experts don't buy recession - Los Angeles Times
Unemployment - 4.9% (down from 5.1% in Dec and Jan)
Consumer Price Index (inflation) - no change from Jan, with the extrapolated annual rate from the prior 3 months equating to a 3.1% inflation rate
Core Inflation (CPI minus fuel and food - this is what the Fed tracks to make its decisions) - 2.2% (holding steady and just barely above the 2% mark that the Fed likes)
Growth (Real GDP) - 0.6% in 4th quarter 2007
Unemployment is still at or below the natural rate of unemployment. Inflation is a concern but appears to be holding steady at the high end of the comfort zone.
Growth is sluggish, but forecasts call for it to pick up in the coming quarters.
While the sensationalized cases like Bear Stearns and the constant drumbeat of the housing market make it seem like the economy is down the tubes, the current performance speaks otherwise about the economy in the aggregrate (which isn't to say that certain parts of the country aren't feeling pain). It will be interesting to see how things play out, but it makes me wonder whether there might end up being a self-fufilling prophecy element to any potential recession.
Here are two diverging opinions on where the economy is headed:
U.S. faces severe recession: NBER's Feldstein - Yahoo! News
UCLA experts don't buy recession - Los Angeles Times
Comment