Brief Iran airforce rundown

[ddog]

On a side note, a picture posted on an Iranian site shows 12 F-14's flying during the recent 140 plane fly over. Given the age of the F-14's radar and relaitvely capable Iranian brain trust there is no reason these crat do not have function long range radars. These 12 planes along with Iran's IL-76 Mainstay aircraft give Iran a fairly credible long range airborne radar curtain at least until subjected to modern ECM.

What 'reason' would that be? Because YOU said so? Sorry, but the fact that they had 79 of those F-14's purchased from the US ought to tell you something when there is only twelve flying.

I can make a long range radar -- but can it be jammed? Yes! Spoofed? Absolutely. Burned out? You got it. Just because the A/c is flying doesn't mean that all of its systems are working. You are assuming that aspect and that is a dangerous assumption. History shows that the A/c systems were great for that period in time but LONG since went away. Think about it... it would be like a F-86K going into battle against a F-4. Now who do you think is going to win? The older 'radar' of the K model? Well it is instantly going to be useless because it is going to be jammed. The only thing the
F-86 pilot is going to see if that his electronis just went on the blink. He'll not know that there is another A/c out there. That's it! There is no more -- for he will be DEAD shortly after that. It isn't anymore complicated than that.

You make an observation about 'modern ECM' -- are you meaning to tell me that the US wouldn't go in the an EA-6B Prowler or an F-18 and fry the electronics of an Iranian A/c as a matter of course? No freakin' way! That would be exactly what is the 'course'. Take out their 'eyes' then rip out there heart when they can't see to fight back. That's the dictum here. That in and of itself renders the Iranian Air Force (in fact all of the Iranian military) not even a token force -- just an insignificant pest -- to be swatted like a mosquito.

[zraver]

First off, the HAWK would have to have a slope firing solution that would require the Tomcat to hover around oh say 150,00 feet in order to get that kind of range. I would think you need to do a bit of research. Remember, the y only came with a 15 mile range to begin with. Yes, launching from the air without having to overcome gravity as they directly would if they were launched from the ground would extend their range but 65+ miles? Not a chance. No the HAWK adaptation is a stop-gap fix and it should be noted, that to put such an antequated missile on that airframe -- one that was NEVER designed to be launched from the air when the Iranians have the ability to go out and buy the most synonymous Russian or French built missile -- well that ought to tell you something about their projected hit-to-kill % -- they "ain't" that good!

When the Iranian's did the mod, they could not get modern Russian or French AAM's. Both France and Russia were supplying Iraq. Your an idiot and you won't be here long.

As to who invented lasers? Do a search and you'll find it was Bell Labs and AMERICAN and CANADIAN employees that did it. It certainly doesn't agree with your revisionist history. Here is the first sentence on that subject:

"The invention of the laser, which stands for light amplification by stimulated emission of radiation, can be dated to 1958 with the publication of the scientific paper, Infrared and Optical Masers, by Arthur L. Schawlow, then a Bell Labs researcher, and Charles H. Townes, a consultant to Bell Labs."

in 1960 the Iranian physicist Ali Javan, working with William R. Bennett and Donald Herriot, made the first gas laser using helium and neon. Javan later received the Albert Einstein Award in 1993.

Honours

In 1975, Professor Ali Javan received from the Optical Society of America their most prestigious honor, the Fredric Ives Medal, with a citation that praised him for "producing an optical device (the Gas Laser) of unparalleled applicability to scientific research." In 1993, he received the Albert Einstein World Award of Science.In 2007 he stood at 12th spot of the table of geniuses among 100.

As to reverse engineering? Actually the term is: STEALING SOMEONE ELSE'S WORK BECAUSE YOU ARE TOO STOOPID TO FIGURE IT OUT ON YOUR OWN.

Then us stupid American's are about as dumb as a box of rocks. We copied or got inspired for most of our creations.

The main problem with reverse engineering is that far often -- as I citied examples -- the shortcomings of the technology are ALSO reverse engineered into it. As in the case of the TF30 engines, again, impellor shaft and compressor problems were the reasons that they -- the US Navy, went away from the P&W engine and switched the the GE F101-DFE (later to become the F110-400's).

From Wikipedia (not the best source I know but it is a direct quote and if someone made it up instead of it being real -- your problem would then be with Wiki's veracity -- not mine):

"John Lehman, Secretary of the Navy, told Congress that the F-14/TF30 combination was "probably the worst engine/airframe mismatch we have had in years" and said that the TF30 was "a terrible engine".

And your point is? In 1979 Iran had very little heavy industry. Today they are an industrialized power.

As to the intelligence factor of 'the people' of Iran, that's on the verge of being racist in nature. That's like saying that all Proctologists are Pakistani! It's like saying that all Canadians are great winter sports people etc. You cannot be that prejudiced can you?

They have 3,000,000 university students.

Let me explain something to you -- When the Shah left, most of the Iranian "BRAIN TRUST" left with him. They got that smart because they could leave the confines of Iran and go study in places like Cambridge, Harvard, Yale, Princeton etc. Most Iranians except for an EXTREMELY small few can't take such advantages because the society is so closed.

Do a bit of research. The Shah exiled more Iranians than left becuase of the revolution.

That is one of the negative aspects of a closed militant society. The moment they decided to leave 'the world' they lost a great deal of their ability to be advanced. Heck, they killed most of their F-14 pilots simply because it was felt that they had to have a certain amount of allegiance to Pahlavi! That's how ASS BACKWARDS these people were and indeed, are! Yes, they have opened up in recent years -- out desperation -- because they know that their closed society is a death knell. THe problem is that to give it an equatable number, if their open ability to study and go abroad was at 100% during the reign of the Shah, now the number might be put at 2% -- that's not enough to have a real factor. That might be enough to survive if everything else is equal but that is about it. It certainly doesn't allow for offensive operations except those that are downright arrogant and stoopid!

I have to ask? Are you really saying that Iranians are intrinsically smart? If that's the case, what does that make the Americans who have invented darned near everything in the friggin' world?

Iranians without benefit of the brain trust you claim fled. have since 1979- put a satellite into orbit, but jets, commercial planes, helicopters, heavy equipment, cloned animals, done gene research etc.

Where did I say the F-5 didn't exist? I am indeed curious as to that one. They had F-5 Tiger II's.

1- You said Iran had no AAM's.

2- The F-5 was never the Tiger II. It is the Freedom Fighter. The Tigershark of F-20 was a proposal, not sure if any were built. the Tiger II aka Konigs Tiger aka Royal Tiger would only get airborne from a near miss by an allied bomb in 1944 or 45.

The reason not to be worried about the Tomcat is that they simply cannot put up any real numbers -- let alone, what they CAN put up is likely to be severely degraded. I am not a fool that will sit here and think that numbers can't overwhelm a superior opposing force -- of lesser numbers. Manoeuvering from either side, tactics if you will, will address how this stuff happens. However, if you have two F-15's going against forty A/c's all with top pilots who won't run... the F-15's are not likely to come away intact. That's why I would worry about the other A/c out there -- such things as simple as a T/A-37. Use the A/c correctly, and you will win -- at least that local engagement.

At least 12 F-14's recently flew over Tehran

As to those other A/c’s you’ve named… you’ve defeated your own supposition from the start – that is, they simply do not have enough A/c’s to have much of an effect in the middle east. I would bet that if Greece decided to launch an aerial offensive into Iran, they’d kick the living crap out of the Iranians. The ‘fact’ that the Iranians could set their F-14’s to ground attack means a whole heck of a lot of NOTHING when they either can’t get off of the ground to begin with or are vaporized shortly after getting airborne! You are also seeming to infer that their ground attack Tomcats are on line with that of the Bombcats that the Navy used at the end of the life of the Tomcat. One acronym for you: TARPS.Tactical Airborne Reconnaissance Pod System. Not only did it reconnoiter, it also scanned and lased areas and targets. Failing that, there were troops on the ground that also lased targets – how many Iranians are going to be able to do that? The answer is quite simple – NONE! This is a similar situation to what the Iraqi’s had in Desert Storm and in 2003. They ‘had’ the ability to do this but it proved useless, clumsy, stoopid and idiotic. Besides, it all went up in vapor clouds and shrapnel within the first day of offensive operations. What makes you think that Iran is going to a better job? Are you expecting them to set up high on sand berms with AT-2’s much like the Egyptians in the Yom Kippur War? At first those Saggers were effective – until the Israeli’s learned how to deal with them – and deal with them they did. After about the first three days of Saggers meeting with some success, the bottom dropped out on that missile system.

Keep in mind, we haven’t even begun to talk about the fact that the Egyptians were firing on solid steel hulls and turrets of M-48 Tanks – ones that were produced at the tail end of WWII. No, we are talking about M-1A2’s and Advanced Bradley’s etc. Again, the Iraqi’s had the same capabilities and they were worthless against those vehicles – unless of course, you wanted to hang your hat on the validity of such weapons because they actually temporarily took one of these vehicles out of the fight. You certainly aren’t dealing with the fact, that one was disabled (albeit temporarily) but fifty went through and ran you down like a pack of rabid dogs! I guess if you (Iranians and their sympathizers) want to look for a silver lining, you may certainly do so – but beware that you probably aren’t going to be alive to celebrate such an event afterwards because you’ll still be very much dead!

As to the Cobra clones… Has it occurred to you that there is a reason the US Army no longer uses the Cobra as it’s mainline Attack Helicopter? Has it occurred to you the reason why the Marine Corps uses the AH-1W as opposed to the Apache? Let me give you the answers… The Cobra is OLD technology and design. It is not as survivable as the Apache. It has two aspects that turn out to be ideal for its continuing use in a certain form of tactical warfare – that also happens to correspond to the needs and environment of the Marine Corps fighting doctrine… the AH-1W doesn’t require all of the ground support of the Apache and therefore it meets with mission doctrine for the USMC. Light traveling, easy portability, can kill the enemy but isn’t designed to stick around and hold an area – that is what the Army is for. The other aspect is that the AH-1W has a much smaller footprint than that of the AH-64 so it is ideal to be used aboard ships designed for and to support Amphibious Landings. Think about it. No matter what you do, with the Apache, you have to allow enough space for a four bladed non-foldable rotor system, whereas on the ‘Whiskey’ it is two-bladed rotor only sticks out seven feet in front of the nose of the helo and doesn’t exceed the length of the tail boom.

Basically stated, the Iranian Cobras might be something against an Iraqi force or maybe a Syrian force etc., but they are inconsequential to a US force – other than the exception that when prices are totaled up at the end, the leftists in the US might have the temerity to gripe about how much we spent on missiles to take out those inconsequential A/c’s.

and you were saying about chutzpah?

You mention: “Their Strike capability… What ‘strike capability. It would all be destroyed – do you not understand that?

with what. I want actual numbers and throw weights. You might be right, but can you prove it or are you just being bombastic?

You can talk about it theoretically all you want but the Iraqi’s had a much more significant ‘strike capability than the Iranians yet they were nothing but ‘fly poop’ on a wall after the Americans got done with them. You might talk about the Iran/Iraq war and how it was a stalemate etc., I have no problem with that.

I didn't talk about it. That is called a red herring, your now arguing with your self.

However, that primarily was due to both sides using hysterically poor Russian fighting doctrine and tactics (the Iranians left the American Doctrines upon the Shah leaving the country – the Iranians ‘cut off their noses to spite their faces’ and simply because they wanted nothing to do with the ‘Great Satan’ they threw away the correct battle doctrine. That’s how stoopid they were – and are!

Is your name Mike Sparks? Iranian tactics were almost letter perfect British tactics Alexander Haig

No, the question of Iranian capabilities vis-ŕ-vis a US interdiction would simply be but a speed bump in the destruction of whatever the Americans wanted to destroy.

I also must point out that you don’t understand the basics about warfare as it relates to equipment… A TOW missile isn’t an anti-personnel missile. It is designed to destroy vehicles – not troops out in the open.

Once again your arguing with yourself. I am really convinced your real name is Mike Sparks. Your without a doubt as stupid as he is, as bombastic as he is, and as blind as he is and your as brain numbingly blind as he is. get this A-hole, yes I called you an A-Hole- I believe in being honest. See my name in blue- do some research. Telling me I don't or under stand the basics of warfare as it relates to equipment is like telling a cat it doesn't like catching mice. How the hell does your body even remember to breath, you don't have enough brain power to control respiration and concentration at the same time.

The rest of your post is the same bombastic drivel and drool.

[Officer of Engineers]

Gentlemen,

You are talking past each other. DDog, I really do suggest that you look up the history of the Iranian military adventures. They've done some really innovative things when denied the assets to do so.

[ddog]

[QUOTE=zraver;498260]Insert total dreamlike garbage statement here!
/quote]

My reply:

They may not have been able to get them at that point but nothing has been stopping them since. Even with nothing in the way, they’ve (apparently) chosen that nothing else has the capabilities of the HAWK. That’s saying something. That’s saying that in the least, the exportable versions of the Russian Missile are lesser in capability than that of the HAWK. Again, that should tell you something.

Now here is where you get to eat your words… that citation from Bell Labs – the one that I gave? It was for events that happened in 1958 – two years before Mr. Javan. So again, who invented the laser? Also you need to understand that they were talking about a specific type of laser. You attributed it to being the invention of laser technology as a whole. As you once said to me (paraphrasing…) you need to go do some research!

Also, as to your list… I see two Iranians and one ‘Canadian/Iranian’ – on the ENTIRE LIST. I see three Americans in the TOP 10! What does that tell you? Aside from the fact that this list is extremely subjective in nature – read – Political!, it also means that there are only three Iranians on the list but there are 39 Americans on the list. What does that tell you? Considering that no Iranian is able to go to the schools Javan did… i.e., Columbia and MIT – where apparently he still resides… What does that tell you? Unless he is funneling schooling back to his ‘homeland’ Iran isn’t getting SQUAT. As I wrote, when Pahlavi was in power, there was free movement in Iran and schooling in Western countries was encouraged. Then comes that ‘POS’ Khomeni and all that goes up in smoke. It isn’t like they are getting back those people any time soon. Those that are indeed educated are finding anyway they possibly can to get the heck out of Iran and its repressive and closed state. So as a rule, Iranians could be the smartest segment of people ever in the history of the world but you know what? They are leaving PERMANENTLY from Iran because they are probably some of the worst people on the face of the earth – as a rule. What does that tell you?

No, the Americans aren’t dumb by any means. They copied some inventions – improved others but mainly, they invented them to begin with. Heck even Al Gore says he invented the internet! Iran isn’t improving anything because they don’t have the infrastructure to do it as compared to American concerns. That’s the primary difference. Your statement fails.

What industrialized power are they? Answer me that one. Do they produce 1/3 of the world’s semi-conductors? Do they produce ˝ of the world’s useable mechanicals? About the only thing they produce is sand! They might produce some locally used products but past that they are still ASS BACKWARDS! They produce sheep! BFD!

They have 3 million students eh? How many does the US have? Canada? How many of those 3 mil are actually graduating with any useful knowledge? Let me see the graduation rates and what those graduates are doing and have learned. It’s not that difficult to graduate 3 million students in Fortran but only 3000 in C++ -- but of what use are the students skilled in the virtues of a computer language LONG SINCE OBSOLETE? Remember this always as this is VERY important… just because someone is in an advanced school etc., doesn’t make them smarter or better than another person. If they aren’t studying the right things, they might as well go off to some mental masturbation. To put that into perspective, when dealing with technology, ten students out of ten thousand learning about electronic engineering sure beats the hell out of 5 students learning electrical engineering, 5 students learning about how a lather works and 9,990 learning about Muslim Theology! IOW, just because they are in school doesn’t make them better at dealing with the terms and situation that we are currently talking about. So that 3 million figure that you quoted? Well that was an attempt by you to force home your point by inundating us with numbers – hoping that by doing so, your point won’t be questioned. Well I am here to tell you that I AM questioning your point as it has no relevance to anything.

It doesn’t matter how many people the Shah exiled. That has nothing to do with this? Hello! McFly! The point of people being out of the country and leaving the country after the revolution has to deal with the fact that people wanted to leave because there was much better and greener pastures elsewhere. It isn’t a comparison. And, if you do want to make it a comparison… let me give you this little tidbit… The same things could be said under the auspices of the Czar pre-1917 and under Lenin afterwards. The big distinction was that Lenin closed the borders – as did Khomeni and it was darned near impossible for people to get out. You are acting as though everyone is happy happy, joy joy about being there. Just like those in the Soviet Union of old, most of them, given the choice would want to stay but dearly wanted their freedom and many wanted to leave but couldn’t because of the draconian measures being taken to keep them in and repress them by their ‘government.’ Sure, people didn’t want to leave because of all manner of reasons. Some didn’t want to leave for fear of government reprisal against their family. Some simply didn’t want to leave what they knew and loved for so long so they just dealt with it. However, one common thing was there for all the world to see, these people wanted their terrible government OUT. They just couldn’t say anything whilst their government was still in power. Please don’t tell me that these people are, by and large, happy. By and large, they aren’t – the trouble is that if one is an American and doesn’t like the government, he can shout from on high: “I hate America!” and maybe he might get some redneck good ol’ boy who might give him a fat lip and some choice words… try that in Iran, I will be visiting your grave.

Basically, you need to stop telling me to do some research. I have done the research as it is germane to the topic at hand and the research shows that you have a clue as to what you are talking about. So stop being condescending for a bit will ya?

1. I NEVER said – and I repeat – NEVER said anything about the F-5 in my original post. You are the one that brought that up. Now, you say that by virtue my of saying that they had no AAM’s, that that preclude using the F-5? I hate to tell you that the F-5 is an aircraft – not an AAM.

2. The AAM’s that I was mentioning was in regard to the PUBLISHED pictures of the F-14’s so that it is related to the F-14’s and the F-14’s ONLY. Try and keep up please?

3. If there were AAM’s that were of American origin that could indeed be used by the F-14, common sense says that the Iranians would use them on the more capable A/c – and if you didn’t know the F-5 was never even close to the league of the F-14A. The only way that you were going to see a Sidewinder – which is the ONLY American built AAM that is could handle – on the F-5 is if it couldn’t be used by the F-14. Again, my original statement stands.

4. As to the name of the F-5… Again, Wikipedia says that there are two unlicensed versions of the F-5E called the Azarakhsh and the Saeqeh. The F-5 ‘E’ version is called the Tiger II! The Freedom Fighter was the F-5 ’A’ version! Also according to Wikipedia it is thought that 60-75 F-5D/E’s out of 140 delivered are still operational. To call it a Tiger II is correct. I really think you need to go back and do some more research. Right now, you are a rank amateur.

5. The F-20 was a derivative of the previous generation F-5’s. It was just given the name as ALL F-5’s being produced at that point were called Tiger II’s in an effort to distinguish that it was a whole different ball of wax than previous F-5’s – hence the Tigershark moniker. No one was talking about the F-20. Here is my quote: (and I haven’t edited anything so this is the exact quote) “Where did I say the F-5 didn't exist? I am indeed curious as to that one. They had F-5 Tiger II's.” Now, if somewhere I too freely applied the A/c names, that should be understandable but it was you who brought the ‘Tigershark’ into the argument. I was talking about the Tiger II from the git-go. Your statement that the F-5 was never the Tiger II shows that you are a ‘poser’ thinking that you can win an argument by tossing out information and winning the argument on that basis – rather than the basis of actual fact. So do you want to retract that statement or do you want to avoid mentioning it again (and other salient facts that have gone to disprove your statements to date) so that you don’t have to say: “I was wrong in what I said and I am out of my league?”

6. At least twelve F-14’s flew over Tehran? BFD! What about the other 67 of them? Hmm? Hey if one wants to project power, wouldn’t they put it all out on the table? I mean, I can understand a few being held in reserve to maintain a force front, but twelve of them? That’s fairly week – ahh who am I kidding… that’s freakin’ pathetic! As to the dozen that made the flyby, I wonder how many of those pilots were on pins and needles wondering how their crates ever got into the air to begin with? But I digress, my onus was that the Iranian Air Force was NOTHING. Let’s just say for argument, that they have 50 Tomcats – how many are armed? How many are truly functional? My bet is that even the dozen in the air probably saw that at least nine of them were incapable of doing much more than make a flyby! BFD.

7. As to your statement about Chutzpah, I really don’t think you are capable of understanding the not-so-subtle aspects of that word. That word is something to be labled against those who don’t have a ‘leg to stand on’ – not those that have it all. In case you didn’t understand it, Iran hasn’t got a leg to stand on.

As to the strike capability – you are the one talking about them being able to tangle effectively (in fact) with the Americans – not me. I am merely pointing out that what the Iranians have isn’t even up to the capabilities of what the Iraqi’s had and we all know that the Iraqi military had nothing to offer when it came right down to it. You don’t seem to understand that Iran is a closed society. They’ve been faced with what they think is the lesser of two evils and have dealt with the Soviet Union and Russia to a limited extent and now they are paying for that isolation because what the Russians have out there is virtual garbage. What the Iranians have is little in number and capability. They have some SAM’s out there but what they have, they don’t have much of. They have some A/c’s out there but again, not much. Do you realize that you are ‘hanging your hat’ as to their ability to be anything more than a virtual speedbump to the US on a freakin’ IL-76 Mainstay that was crap when it was in service with the Soviet Union? Get a frickin’ grip! How many videos do I have to track down showing Iraqi A/c’s getting destroyed whilst still on the ground? Do you seriously think that Iran had an more overwhelming Air Force than that of Iraq? If so, you just simply can’t be reasoned with.

I was talking facetiously when I mentioned what the Americans did with a much more powerful force (the Iraqi’s) as compared to what they could do with the Iranian Air Force. To that end, I merely pointed out that due to prevailing conditions and capabilities that were present in the Iran/Iraq war – and that essentially there is not that awful much different about the Iranian Air Force now as there was at that point in time – if the Americans kicked the living crap out of the Iraqi’s and the Iraqi Air Force was far more capable than the Iranian Air Force – just what do you think is going to happen if the American got a chance to tangle with the Iranian Air Force? With the Iraqi’s it was labeled a massacre – with the Iranian, it would be absolute devastation.

No, my name is not Mark Sparks. Iranian tactics might’ve been almost ‘letter perfect’ British tactics – but remember, the tactics they were using were of British origin that was decades old. It certainly isn’t the tactics of today and most certainly not up to the level of tactics that the British used, at say – the Falkland Islands. Again, your statement has no bearing on this discussion except to say, Americans would be happy to see ‘lock-step’ tactics that are well out-of-date. The more modern Soviet tactical doctrine that the Iraqi’s used wasn’t worth a crap – mainly the reason that they got their behinds kicked! You honestly think that decades old tactical doctrine that does not address the capabilities of the modern battlefield is going to of any positive use against current American tactical doctrine? Are you out of your mind? May I also point out to you that the British didn’t charge in ‘willy-nilly’ into the fold in human wave attacks to be summarily wiped out – like the Iranians did! Yep, that sure was British doctrine alright – NOT!

I am not arguing with myself. You are positing that the Iranians would actually be able to do something against the American forces and I am telling you that the Iranian forces wouldn’t be more than a speed-bump to the Americans.

I can tell you this, I do not know Mike Sparks and don’t care if I ever do. But I can tell you that if you want to call me stupid, I will simply call you a childish little puissant boy who needs to go back and start painting his 1/72 scale USAirfix Plastic Model of an SU-25 thinking about how great and superior it is to everything in the world instead of wondering how to get a date. It is clear you are an ‘armchair’ general and haven’t a clue of the real world. Virtually everything you’ve said you didn’t know what the hell you were talking about, Sparky! Why don’t you get ready to vote Democrat in the General Election – they could use someone as brain-dead as you!

You said that I stated several things to which I most certainly did not and I included relevant quotes to show as such. You made claims that had no substantiation (F-5 Tiger II’s) and you’ve made claims about situations that history has shown to be clearly a fault. That’s your problem, Skipper – not mine.

[ddog]

Gentlemen,

You are talking past each other. DDog, I really do suggest that you look up the history of the Iranian military adventures. They've done some really innovative things when denied the assets to do so.

I am not saying that they haven't -- what I am saying is that it is inconsequential to the reality at hand that if one were to 'rundown the Iranian Air Force,' there has to be a purpose for doing so and that purpose, in the given climate is to put it up against an American attack -- like it or not, that is the way that it is.

Iran is not making waves to attack Syria. They aren't making waves to attack Turkey... they are making waves to duke it out with America. So that is what this 'rundown' is really about. If the rundown were about numbers, a country could list 'five gazillion' aircraft for all it was worth but that doesn't tell you the story because 4.99 'gazillion' of those aircraft as Cessna 172's. The reality is that we are talking about the offensive and defensive capabilities of an opposition and like it or not, in the current climate, that opposition would be Iran/America.

In this instance, this piece of work is trying to equate one single verified aircraft as being able to make a reasonable difference in an aerial battle. Keep in mind that this aircraft, when it was brand new was considered to be horrible in capability. Keep in mind that this aircraft is several years old and is likely to have a poor maintenance and squawk record. And while you are at it, keep in mind that this is one FRIGGIN' aircraft! It can't cover everything in Iran and even what it CAN cover is limited to its internal capabilities. To say the least, this aircraft isn't going to be able to track both air and ground targets when there is likely to be two or three HUNDRED of them each -- in the even of an attack. Considering the range capability of the radar, it can't cover much more than what might be in a ten mile radius (with any effectiveness). Then consider that at the whim of an American Commander, this Aircraft can be blown out of the sky by any number of hundreds of SAM's or aircraft. Consider that the Iranians don't fight like the Americans in that they are not going to put this one aircraft up in jeopardy and assign a squadron to ensure its safety. They can't afford to do that. That means that they have to leave open combat airspace and go to closed airspace -- i.e., another country in order to nto be shot down. Looking at the geography of Iran and where the targets of opportunity are, that means that they have to be in Turkemenistan to have any security from being shot down. They can't fly to Georgia. Georgia is friendly with the US and while they might not shoot them down, they certainly are going to send them out of their airspace. They can't go to Afghanistan -- the US controls that airspace. They can't go to Turkey -- a US Ally. They can't go to Azerbijan -- as far as I understand, the Azerbijani's hate the Iranian more than the Iraqi's do. They can't go to Armenia -- pretty much the same situation as Azerbijan. At best they can go to Turkmenistan. So now, if the Iranians wanted to go there, they have two somewhat important air bases in Iran that are within 150 miles of the Turkmenistan border -- that's it. So it comes down to the fact that if they don't want that aircraft turned into one of the world's biggest ball of aluminum confetti, they either keep it on the ground hidden away, blow it up themselves or fly it to Turkmenistan and be just as equally ineffective from there.

Basically, what it all comes down to is that that 'Toolbox' is trying to talk up the Iranian Air Force with no substantiation whatsoever and I am calling him on it.

My position stays the same -- the Iranian Air Force -- EVEN WITH ALL THE TECHNOLOGICAL WONDER IN THE WORLD THAT YOU WOULD WANT TO GIVE THEM -- isn't anything more than a speedbump to the US. I will give you all the accolades that what they've been able to accomplish but in 'American-speak' -- all that and $2.50 isn't going to buy you the proverbial cup of coffee in terms of capabilities. It means nothing. That 'Toolbox' just refuses to accept that.

[zraver]

Toolbox? Hahaha, your the jingoistic tool.

Iran's air force by itself is not much of a threat. But it is not Iran's only tool,or even its principle tool. It is just a tool in Iran's tool box that is part of the biggest threat the US has squared off against since the Soviet Union collapsed. Iranian plans seem dead set on sinking a carrier. They don't care which, they just want to sink one. A L class at the least, but would prefer a CVN. To achieve this they have 200 or so combat aircraft, nearly 100 Fast Attack Craft, several submarines, at least 100 large long range anti-ship missiles, hundreds of smaller anti-ship missiles, IRBM and SRBM with both HE and cluster munitions and at least partial satellite and Kolchuga coverage of the area. They will know where at least 1 carrier is. Iran is perfectly prepared to sacrifice a few thousand lives if it means putting a US Carrier on the ocean floor.

You have the completely bone headed attitude that you can ignore Iran becuase individually its chess pieces are not that good. You dismiss them as a third world country. They are not. Iran is a functioning high-tech nation with the highest levels of technology usage and education between Delhi and Jerusalem.

And our carriers will be operating virtually alone, Iran has said if war starts, the Gulf bases and thier runways are going to get pasted with hundreds of SRBM's. Iran might well have more missiles than we have anti-missiles. If they do, then that contest will only go one way. The loss of the Gulf bases not only uncovers the carriers, but also the army in Iraq. An Army BTW not geared for large scale ground combat or for facing a real guerrilla army. Our tactical ADA also is sub-par so those Cobras you laugh at will be a serious threat.

[Officer of Engineers]

Z,

I have as much confidence in the Iranians shutting USAF airbases as I do the PLA in shutting down the RoCAF via BM bombardment. They are simply not accurate enough to hit a runway and more than likely those missiles will hit open ground instead.

Aside from that, I have every confidence with the base engineers to repair any damage and get at least one runway operational within 24 hours.

Add to this, the kind of co-ordination you're speaking of (BM salvos against USAF bases), mass boat attacks, and aircraft sorties in the hundreds was never achieved in the entire history of the Iranian military. I would be very surprise if they achieve anything above squadron level. They've simply have not shown it.

[Druze]

Z,

I have as much confidence in the Iranians shutting USAF airbases as I do the PLA in shutting down the RoCAF via BM bombardment. They are simply not accurate enough to hit a runway and more than likely those missiles will hit open ground instead.

Aside from that, I have every confidence with the base engineers to repair any damage and get at least one runway operational within 24 hours.

Add to this, the kind of co-ordination you're speaking of (BM salvos against USAF bases), mass boat attacks, and aircraft sorties in the hundreds was never achieved in the entire history of the Iranian military. I would be very surprise if they achieve anything above squadron level. They've simply have not shown it.

Indeed. We're talking about a nation who more or less fought an eight year trench war at the end of the 20th century against Iraq. There are many aspects of the Iranian forces which have improved since then most notably their special operation capacities as well as overall communications but I highly doubt they can initiate a sustained air campaign and still have an air force 48 hours later.

[Officer of Engineers]

Lieutenant,

The Israelis have commented that they were expecting Hezbollah guerrillas, instead they met an Iranian Division. How true is that statement?

[zraver]

Z,

I have as much confidence in the Iranians shutting USAF airbases as I do the PLA in shutting down the RoCAF via BM bombardment. They are simply not accurate enough to hit a runway and more than likely those missiles will hit open ground instead.

They only have to shut the bases down initially for one day. I don't think any Iranian is thinking about even so long as week. Remember Iran's goal is the carriers and shutting down the straits of Hormuz.

Aside from that, I have every confidence with the base engineers to repair any damage and get at least one runway operational within 24 hours.

What can Iran do in those 24 hours? can they coordinate a strike on a carrier, and seize the straits? There is a very good chance they can. I will expand on this further later in the post.

Add to this, the kind of co-ordination you're speaking of (BM salvos against USAF bases), mass boat attacks, and aircraft sorties in the hundreds was never achieved in the entire history of the Iranian military. I would be very surprise if they achieve anything above squadron level. They've simply have not shown it.

Actually they have. In repeated exercises they have shown an ability to surge thier FAC's and bog hammers. They practice thier navy all the damn time. They have done numerous missile drills as well. They do not salvo launch them, usually only 1 or 2 missiles, but whole units take part in the drills. As for the air force, just a couple weeks ago they got 140 fighter planes in the air, assembled and did a fly over Tehran. This puts thier minimum combat strength at 140 jets. if they can even get half this number airborne for a combat surge the USN is facing a serious threat. The SU-24's are very capable air frames and the FAC's are missile and torpedo armed while the room to move is very limited. On top of this Iran claims to keep the carriers under surveillance via UAV (I am skeptical), dhows (classic intelligence trawler concept) and also has at least 1 photo/recon satelite albiet with poor resolution. They also have the Kolchuga system according to some reports. The Kolchuga is very capable and just one can fix a bearing on the carrier for the strikes to follow.

Any war with Iran will depend on who mobilizes fastest and who strikes first. If the US can get 4 carriers into the region and Iran doesn't jump first then the US has a very good chance of winning control of the straits of Hormuz and the Tund islands. Iran's forces are numerous and the numbers make them fairly robust but they do have weaknesses the US can exploit if the US strikes first. However if Iran jumps first then the situation is much different for the US.

If Iran thinks war has come, and they decide to act first, look first for a massive upswing in Shia violence in Iraq as the Iranians use thier proxies to tie down and concentrate the army and force the USAF and USN air to expend munitions and force the US to keep at least 1 carrier in the gulf in support of ground operations.

This is exaclty the situation the Iranians think they can win. They think they can pin down the USAF long enough to go after a Gulf trapped carrier with every thing they have and also mine the straits effectively closing them until after peace returns due to the USN's anemic mine clearing capability in the region. IIRC the USN and allied forces have 4 mine clearer's in the region. This to combat the 3rd or 4th largest sea mine arsenal on the globe.

Iran's strategy is based on a simple concept- sink a carrier to declare a military victory while imposing an oil blockade so that the US economy tanks when oil goes past 400 a barrel. It is the economic damage Iran is relying on to force the US to sue for peace before the US air campaign and the oil blockade can cripple Iran's infrastructure.

I also think they want to bag a large part of the US Army, but I don't put a lot of faith in this. If I understand the reasoning, a large number of POW's is leverage against the US using its P5 status to extend the economic war on Iran past the ceasefire by keeping sanctions in place.

[ddog]

They only have to shut the bases down initially for one day. I don't think any Iranian is thinking about even so long as week. Remember Iran's goal is the carriers and shutting down the straits of Hormuz.



What can Iran do in those 24 hours? can they coordinate a strike on a carrier, and seize the straits? There is a very good chance they can. I will expand on this further later in the post.



Actually they have. In repeated exercises they have shown an ability to surge thier FAC's and bog hammers. They practice thier navy all the damn time. They have done numerous missile drills as well. They do not salvo launch them, usually only 1 or 2 missiles, but whole units take part in the drills. As for the air force, just a couple weeks ago they got 140 fighter planes in the air, assembled and did a fly over Tehran. This puts thier minimum combat strength at 140 jets. if they can even get half this number airborne for a combat surge the USN is facing a serious threat. The SU-24's are very capable air frames and the FAC's are missile and torpedo armed while the room to move is very limited. On top of this Iran claims to keep the carriers under surveillance via UAV (I am skeptical), dhows (classic intelligence trawler concept) and also has at least 1 photo/recon satelite albiet with poor resolution. They also have the Kolchuga system according to some reports. The Kolchuga is very capable and just one can fix a bearing on the carrier for the strikes to follow.

Any war with Iran will depend on who mobilizes fastest and who strikes first. If the US can get 4 carriers into the region and Iran doesn't jump first then the US has a very good chance of winning control of the straits of Hormuz and the Tund islands. Iran's forces are numerous and the numbers make them fairly robust but they do have weaknesses the US can exploit if the US strikes first. However if Iran jumps first then the situation is much different for the US.

If Iran thinks war has come, and they decide to act first, look first for a massive upswing in Shia violence in Iraq as the Iranians use thier proxies to tie down and concentrate the army and force the USAF and USN air to expend munitions and force the US to keep at least 1 carrier in the gulf in support of ground operations.

This is exaclty the situation the Iranians think they can win. They think they can pin down the USAF long enough to go after a Gulf trapped carrier with every thing they have and also mine the straits effectively closing them until after peace returns due to the USN's anemic mine clearing capability in the region. IIRC the USN and allied forces have 4 mine clearer's in the region. This to combat the 3rd or 4th largest sea mine arsenal on the globe.

Iran's strategy is based on a simple concept- sink a carrier to declare a military victory while imposing an oil blockade so that the US economy tanks when oil goes past 400 a barrel. It is the economic damage Iran is relying on to force the US to sue for peace before the US air campaign and the oil blockade can cripple Iran's infrastructure.

I also think they want to bag a large part of the US Army, but I don't put a lot of faith in this. If I understand the reasoning, a large number of POW's is leverage against the US using its P5 status to extend the economic war on Iran past the ceasefire by keeping sanctions in place.

Iraq was infinitely more powerful compared to Iran. Get a life – and some realism. Iran can be dead set on ‘blowing up your mother’ – for all I care, but you don’t even realize that you’ve used the operative phrase… they are DEAD SET! That’s what they’re going to be – DEAD! As I understand it, the US Navy isn’t too worried about even a nuclear weapon detonating within a half mile of a carrier – that isn’t going to sink it. For reference, go look at the Baker Tests at Bikini Atoll – the Saratoga – a first generation Carrier. That ship would have survived the atomic bomb tests had their been a crew on board to manage the damage control. Ship survivability has grown infinitely since that time. As it is, there is a deck wash system on American Carriers so wash down the external parts of the ship in the event of nuclear contamination. That isn’t to say that everyone on board might not succumb to radiation poisoning but that they aren’t all going to instantaneously die – that translates to: ‘They are going to do some hell of a lot of damage before the radiation gets them!’

What all this means is that a 16 Foot ‘Bayliner’ carrying seven or eight thousand pounds of explosives parked right up against the ship is not going to sink a carrier – so those Iranians can dream on all they want. Let me ask you this… what are all those Iranians going to think when they try in vain to sink a carrier and the US Navy laughs at them and plugs them full of holes before they can get within 100 yards of a carrier? The reason that I ask is that I am sure that you understand that they aren’t going to be able to pull alongside (while underway and in a combat footing) a carrier and pop off some torpex. If you think that is what they are going to do, you are sadly mistaken. The USS Cole brought memories back of protection with a closed port – but there never has been that lax of security whilst underway and in a war footing – but just to entertain you that they might be able to do it… again I remind you, they don’t have a surface craft capable of carrying enough explosives to do the job – and still remain viable as to avoiding the anti-ship munitions being tossed at it.

Just out of curiosity… what is an ‘L Class’?

Now you’ve given a sort of ‘pseudo-scenario’ whereby sheer numbers are meant to convey ability, likelihood of success and an indicator of what will happen. This has been your ‘M.O.’ from the git-go. This way you can infer what you want but if someone ‘calls you on it’ you can maintain plausible deniability. That being said, let’s address the equipment…

1. Most of the equipment that Iran has is going to go ‘up in smoke’ in the first hours of the war. The US will simply maintain a stand-off distance that renders them safe from Iranian A/c Since the Americans can fly farther and destroy more… they are going to do exactly that. Thus, there is no point worrying about the Iranian A/c – NONE.

2. The US cannot, in peacetime, blockade without regard, a country who has the right to conduct peaceful naval operations – that’s why the US Navy hasn’t gone in an performed interdiction mission against that very same Iranian Speedboats. On a war footing however, they most certainly can do that and most certainly WILL do that. That means that those Iranian speedboats? They get destroyed ‘in situ.’ They go ‘boom-boom’ right there in port – at the docks etc. So much for the Speedboats! Want to see the video of the US Navy interdicting similar craft – except they were Iraqi? The video is out there. The Iraqi’s thought they could operate with impunity. The US Navy wasn’t on a war footing with them and they let the Iraqi’s float all around the off-shore Oil Platforms and the Off-Loading islands. The moment the war commenced? Bye-bye baby!!!!!!!!!

4. That you are not much for tactics is obvious but I cannot believe you don’t understand the concept of ‘picket ships?’ Do you honestly think a Carrier is going to be the first contact shell for say, a Silkworm? Think about it a minute… You are going to have to deal with Satellites surveying the situation and letting all the ships in the fleet know that they have had active launches. Then those missiles are going to have pass surveillance from JSTARS etc. Then they are going to have to get by the Destroyers, then the cruisers etc. Each one of them is going to have a go at those missiles. You’ll have to take into account the amount of missiles that are simply going to break down and/or malfunction. Then you’ve got to worry about the electronic jamming, the spoofing, the other guidance interference issues. Then you have to worry about the Sea Sparrows etc. Then you have to worry about the CIWS. Basically, for those missiles, they (the Iranians) have a LOT to worry about. Then you have to take into account that even if a missile or two got through, it isn’t going to take down a carrier – simple as that. But why worry about that to begin with – it is extremely doubtful that one of those POS’s would make it through to a carrier. It might, but probably won’t. If by some fortuitous event, one made it through, US damage control is the best in the world. While there may be some dead, it isn’t likely to have too much of an effect (except pissing the US off and strengthening their resolve) for the ability of the Americans to wage war.

5. Those IRBM’s and SRBM’s that you’ve mentioned? Would those be the ones that had the guidance systems of that of the SS-1 SCUD? As far as I know they are unguided once launched – that means that they don’t do well hitting moving targets. Couple that with a ‘little-known’ missile system called PATRIOT, outside of a freak accident where a ‘lucky’ warhead hit a housing area that just happened to contain US Troops… On top of that, you are not considering that the Navy is going to ‘ring in’ with their Standard Missile – you know, the one that not only took out a malfunctioning satellite but took out the Hydrozene fuel capsule – a target about five square feet in size! I am not really worried about much of the Iranian Missile capability. May I remind you that the Iraqi’s had the same general capabilities with their missiles yet they were useless? The Iraqi Army had some of the BEST field artillery guns ever built (South African in nature) and they didn’t take a single US Soldiers life? Why? Battery Counterfire BABEEEEEEE! They saw the Iraqi incoming, tracked it back to its source, fed coordinates into the 105mm Howitzers and sent metal right back at them. The difference between the Americans and the Iraqi’s? The Iraqi’s were firing an hoping that somehow they might be even 1% accurate – the Americans were firing back and hitting with all of their counter-battery fire.

6. About the only knowledge that they will have about the location of a Carrier is: Hey, Mahmoud! “Hey, yah, dee Persian Gulf. American Carrier is their right? Mahmoud? Mahmoud?” “Moustaffa! “What did Mahmoud say?” “I dunno, he say something strange… he say: BOOM!” In case you haven’t figured it out, Mahmoud only knew there was a carrier in the Gulf – right before he DIED!

I also want you to understand that simply knowing something doesn’t mean that you can do anything to mitigate it. It’s just like your MO about hoping that people will make inferences because of the numbers you quote. An air Force can have a billion aircraft but if they can’t get off the ground, don’t have useable weapons, have pilots afraid that the mere fact they are in the aircraft means that they are going to die etc., that massive number doesn’t mean SQUAT! The way that this applies in this instance is that even if they had the exact coordinates, what does that do them when they can’t get to the ship and exploit that information? The Iranians could be prepared to die en masse and that won’t change the fact that they are not going to drop an American Carrier – no way, no how. The Iraqi’s had a better chance with a better capability to do that than the Iranians and the Iraqi’s didn’t have a chance in hell. The best they could muster was hitting the USS Princeton with a free-floating (read: UNGUIDED MINE). No one died on the Princeton and she could have continued her service but the truth was, the Iraqi’s were being so badly beaten, the US Navy didn’t need to have the Princeton in theatre. There goes that line of thought!

7. I never said that we could ignore them – we could, but I didn’t say we should be too concerned about them either! The problem isn’t that it chess pieces (individually aren’t good) it is that EVERYTHING it has IS NOT THAT GOOD! In fact, it is just this side of HORRID! Hate to break that nes to you but that is the way that it is. Again, I have said it time after time but the Iraqi Military post Desert Storm was far better than anything that Iran has. The only thing keeping Iraq from running roughshod throughout Iran was terrain and terrain features – remember me saying something about that? Iraq, even being ‘native’ to the area, couldn’t sustain the force, could not provide the logistical chain that the Americans did during Desert Storm and afterwards. That’s the only reason Saddam didn’t walk right down Khomeni Lane!

8. No, I do not dismiss them as a third world country. I dismiss them as a Fifth World country as ASS BACKWARDS as you can get! They make Afghanistan (pre-Taliban) look civilized! You state that they are one of the highest level of countries between Delhi and Jerusalem… that really says a great deal when you consider that what’s there between them have the collective brain power of a twig! I’m not impressed. And while we are on it… you keep harping on intelligence – did it ever ONCE occur to you that you need some of that intelligence? I mean, think about it… you trot out a rather obscure professor and then proceed to join him with a less-than-stellar (in terms of objectivity) list of genius (Think about it, MY GAWD! The third ranked person on that list was the creator of an animated series called THE SIMPSONS! (as I side note, I invite you to go re-read the conditions of that list and you will see that they didn’t look at simple ‘brain-power’ they looked at how much someone influenced the general public. THAT IS SUBJECTIVE – not OBJECTIVE! That means that your list has NO STANDING! Oh, so that isn’t good enough for you? Then how about this… Professor Javan lives in Massachussetts! He doesn’t live in Iran! He isn’t transporting his knowledge back to Iran! What in the freak do you think Iranians do with knowledge – transmit it by osmosis or something? Are you that intellectually stunted? He isn’t giving the Iranians ANYTHING. He can be smarter than anyone ever walking the face of the earth but unless he is DIRECTLY contributing to the Iranians (and they can take advantage of it…) he might as well be locked away in a cube with the lights off and no contact with anyone in Iran for all that’s worth. He is working for the US! Get it?

9. “And our carriers will be operating virtually alone…”? You don’t have any idea of what you are saying do you? You can’t possibly have any idea of what you are saying. Did you see the pictures of those Iranian Speedboats shadowing the US Navy? Did you? Did it occur to you that those ships were the Picket Ships in the Naval Task Force? Do you even know what a task force is or means? It doesn’t mean that there is a carrier out there… it means that there are several ships out there all working together and interrelated – organic if you will. Did it ever occur to you the Carriers are deeper in the Med and deeper in the Gulf than those pickets ships? Have you ever thought about using a Zodiac in the middle of the Persian Gulf? Try it sometime – when you get swamped because of 10 foot seas and you’ve drowned, what effect do you think your boat is going to have? NONE! The Carriers are well away from the operating areas that those little coastal boats operate in. They mean very little to the Carriers in the scheme of things. Those Carriers are FAR from operating alone. They have AWACS and JSTARS support. They have HUMINT, ELINT, SIGINT resources. They have at least thirty other offensive and defense support ships within thirty miles. They have offensive and defensive support from land-based fighter and attack aircraft – Twenty four hours around the clock, seven days a week. Yeah, they are out there operating virtually alone alright. The Iranians will find out how wrong that assumption is the moment that they try to send any force out there. In fact, I’d be willing to bet you that an Iranian Combat Aircraft on an offensive mission will not get within 20 miles of an American Carrier. I would be willing to bet that no American Carrier will get within 100 miles of a piece Iranian potential offensive equipment. They don’t need to. That is called “STAND OFF CAPABILITY!” They can sit in the Gulf or the Med at their leisure and launch A/c at their proverbial whim – whatsmore… they will do exactly that. The Iranian stuff isn’t going to have the range to get there from Iranian shores. They aren’t going to nail the Carriers with Zodiacs. The Zodiacs would founder and sink before they got with 50 miles of the Carriers. The Iranian Diesel subs? Well, the LA Class Attack subs that are out there are going to have their sonars on high gain and are going to pick thoise noisy diesel-electrics up without any effort – so they know where they are going to be, so if one leaves port – it’s going to get a Mk48 ADCAP right up its behind and it go ‘BOOM!’ But I digress, why worry about that when a Virgina Class Sub is going to drop in a few SEAL Platoons and plant some mines, and contact explosives on the hulls and blow them to kingdom come right there in port! Those that maybe might be out to sea? Well the LA’s get to have some fun with them. Do you honestly think that the Americans don’t know where EVERY single Iranian sub is at and what status it is in at this very moment? The Americans knew that about the Russians, you think the Iranians are better at concealment than the Russians? Are you out of your ever-lovin’ cotton pickin’ mind? Then those fair-haired Fancy Nancy Boys of the Iranian Navy? The ones that like their regional brethren, the Iraqi’s the ones that won’t leave port because they don’t want to die? Well, maybe, just maybe you might see what’s known as ‘fouling line’ wrapped around the propellers of their subs – you know, the ones that stay in port and the SEALs can’t get to with explosives – namely because they are, as I said… NANCY BOYS! Well, with their Props fouled, even if they manage to get a spine – even at the wrong end of a gun barrel, they aren’t leaving port because they can’t go anywhere – there props won’t turn! So, when you are thinking about that so-called supersonic torpedo that the Iranians are touted as having (the one that we know they only tested the Shkval or something such like that), it isn’t going to make a difference if they can’t float a boat out there to launch one in the first place. The Iranians can have ten thousand times the missiles as the Americans but if the Americans are never in the target envelope because they are tens and more of miles away from the maximum range of those missiles… what does it frickin’ matter? Again, you are going with that old saw that numbers actually translate to capabilities and you hope that you can scare others into believing your garbage just by sheer numbers and inference. It means not one thing! In fact, EVERYTHING that you’ve said that gives any benefit of the doubt to the Iranians, you’ve stated on the basis of numbers – not practicality. I will, however, give you that one force can swarm attack another, but for a swarm attack to work, every element in the swarm has to be in its attack envelope and that is impossible when the target is constantly outside that envelope. Get it?

I must say that again, the Iranians have a great deal of Chutzpah if they think that they can dictate the conditions once conflict starts and metal starts flying. Their basis of saying that the carriers will be virtually alone is ridiculous. The Iraqi’s had more equipment to accomplish such a thing in Desert Storm and beyond. They had a better setup in terms of terrain and area to launch… please name for me one coalition runway that the Iraqis bombed in either conflict? Name one. I am waiting and the crickets are starting to chirp. Please name one? The Iraqis had less of a distance between them and the Coalition Forces. They had less in terms of natural obstructions (remember, the Iranians have a mountain range and a Gulf to deal with) yet they didn’t get once single piece of ordinance, with intent, onto Coalition Forces. That ought to tell you sumpin’! The Iraqi’s had their SCUDS. The Iraqi’s had HAWK Missiles. They had bomber aircraft. They had tactical attack aircraft… again, NOT a single piece of ordinance!

See, the Iranians have a history of puffing out their chest – in fact, it is endemic to the peoples of that area. They like bravado, bluff and bluster – more so than the Russians could ever have hoped for at the highest point of the Soviet Union! Remember, Saddam did it when he said that American Forces would burn… etc. People of that area talk one hell of a mean game but don’t have the spine or capability to carry out their propaganda! “I draw dees line in dee sahnd. If jou cross dees line, jou die!!!” The Americans run their bluff and step over the line. The Iranian backs up and says: ‘Ok, jou cross dees line, jou die!” And they keep on doing it over and over and over.

10. You don’t read and comprehend what I have said – do you? As I told you, there is a political aspect and there is a military aspect and I am talking about the military aspect. I don’t think that the US forces will go in with a political mind to occupy Iran. More than likely they are going to circumcise those Persians (so to speak). They are going to go in and take out what areas they need to take out – Natanz? See Ya Later! Those aircraft sitting in Bandar Abbas? Well they might be around after everything is said and done but they aren’t going to have a runway from which to take off. Pretty much the US has no reason to occupy the area. They just need to stop the Uranium Hexaflouride Production. They need to stop the stuff that might make Iran a nuclear power. As bad as it is in Iran, they probably will depose the Iranian Revolutionary Government on their own – and yes, it is that bad. The only reason they don’t do it right now is that unlike those complaining within the US and maybe some bad words being laid at their feet, in Iran – they kill you! Get it? Basically put, there is no real need for a large scale ground offensive. It isn’t needed. Surgical strikes and insertion – that’s all that’s needed.

When one comes down to it, there is not a real and practical threat coming from the Iranians in conventional terms. There might be the occasional anomaly but that is about it. The Iranians will die is gross military manner.


As a side note:

The one thing that disappoints me is that no one else is taking the time to also confirm to you that you don’t have any idea of what you are talking about – instead, they are leaving it up to me. I guess they don’t feel you are worth the effort and that I am doing fine by myself.

[Officer of Engineers]

DDog,

Lay off the personal insults. Attack the message. Not the messenger. You're an adult. Act like one.

FYI Shihab-3 and Shihab-4 got CEP of 50 metres.

In 2007, they fired a 100 missile salvo.

[troung]

No, I do not dismiss them as a third world country. I dismiss them as a Fifth World country as ASS BACKWARDS as you can get! They make Afghanistan (pre-Taliban) look civilized

Iran more backwards then the Taliban? Iran which kept a large and complex fighter fleet in service, Iran which had built tanks, APCs, trucks, rifles, mortars and the whole run of military equipment was more backwards then the Taliban ?

The US can land a battalion of troops and their support equipment wherever they want and take on EVERYTHING that the IRANIANS have – not a problem. You will have tanks and APC’s and CUCV’S and 151’s etc. etc. etc. and if air support is needed, you will get it with impunity. Need Artillery? No Problem! Just call in some Rockets 100 miles away – over the mountain range and that river out there. That desert? Doesn’t mean a thing.

Anaconda.

The one thing that disappoints me is that no one else is taking the time to also confirm to you that you don’t have any idea of what you are talking about – instead, they are leaving it up to me. I guess they don’t feel you are worth the effort and that I am doing fine by myself.

Trust me it is the other way around.

[zraver]

Iraq was infinitely more powerful compared to Iran. Get a life – and some realism.

Iran stopped iraq and had the initive for most of the war. This depsite all the Soviet and French equipment and US, German and Dutch Chemicals saddam could beg borrow or steal. They did this with little more than blood and guts literally. However that war ended in 1988. Since then Iran has been on eof the most active nations on the worlds arms market.

Iran can be dead set on ‘blowing up your mother’ – for all I care, but you don’t even realize that you’ve used the operative phrase… they are DEAD SET! That’s what they’re going to be – DEAD! As I understand it, the US Navy isn’t too worried about even a nuclear weapon detonating within a half mile of a carrier – that isn’t going to sink it. For reference, go look at the Baker Tests at Bikini Atoll – the Saratoga – a first generation Carrier. That ship would have survived the atomic bomb tests had their been a crew on board to manage the damage control. Ship survivability has grown infinitely since that time. As it is, there is a deck wash system on American Carriers so wash down the external parts of the ship in the event of nuclear contamination. That isn’t to say that everyone on board might not succumb to radiation poisoning but that they aren’t all going to instantaneously die – that translates to: ‘They are going to do some hell of a lot of damage before the radiation gets them!’

Once again you demonstrate a complete inability to use argument. What you just did is called a staw man. You set up a situation I did not discuss and then demolished and claimed to demolish me. In fact nothing in the quoted text has had any bearing on the issue at hand.

What all this means is that a 16 Foot ‘Bayliner’ carrying seven or eight thousand pounds of explosives parked right up against the ship is not going to sink a carrier – so those Iranians can dream on all they want. Let me ask you this… what are all those Iranians going to think when they try in vain to sink a carrier and the US Navy laughs at them and plugs them full of holes before they can get within 100 yards of a carrier?

The "bayliners" as you call them are called bog hammers. They are not FAC's. Iranian FAC's of which there are at least 100 and possibly twice that are 30-70 patrol craft. Modern versions of the WW2 era PT or E boats. Craft of these type have a long and storied history of punching arrogant capitol ships and navies in the nose. Th Iranian's have several versions all either armed with missiles, or torpedoes.

since you specified 100 yrds, I highlighted it. That is anywhere from 2900 plus yards closer than they need to be.

The reason that I ask is that I am sure that you understand that they aren’t going to be able to pull alongside (while underway and in a combat footing) a carrier and pop off some torpex. If you think that is what they are going to do, you are sadly mistaken.

Yet another straw man.

The USS Cole brought memories back of protection with a closed port – but there never has been that lax of security whilst underway and in a war footing – but just to entertain you that they might be able to do it… again I remind you, they don’t have a surface craft capable of carrying enough explosives to do the job – and still remain viable as to avoiding the anti-ship munitions being tossed at it.

They have at least 100 vessels with credible anti-warship armament. individually they might not sink a carrier, but en mass they are a threat.

Just out of curiosity… what is an ‘L Class’?

What, Mr know it all does not know what an L class is? The USN operates two types of them 8 in one class, 3 in the other both displace around 40,000 tons. heres the final hint- look for places where devil dogs wrote history with thier own blood.

Now you’ve given a sort of ‘pseudo-scenario’ whereby sheer numbers are meant to convey ability, likelihood of success and an indicator of what will happen. This has been your ‘M.O.’ from the git-go. This way you can infer what you want but if someone ‘calls you on it’ you can maintain plausible deniability. That being said, let’s address the equipment…

So far in this post you've set up three straw men, you might want to look in the mirror.

1. Most of the equipment that Iran has is going to go ‘up in smoke’ in the first hours of the war.

Absolutely no one is debating that point. What is being discussed is what they can do before destroyed and that question is answered by the situation in which the war presents itself.

The US will simply maintain a stand-off distance that renders them safe from Iranian A/c Since the Americans can fly farther and destroy more… they are going to do exactly that. Thus, there is no point worrying about the Iranian A/c – NONE.

That depends on where the USN ship are. Inside the Persian Gulf there is not a lot of stand off distance.

2. The US cannot, in peacetime, blockade without regard, a country who has the right to conduct peaceful naval operations – that’s why the US Navy hasn’t gone in an performed interdiction mission against that very same Iranian Speedboats. On a war footing however, they most certainly can do that and most certainly WILL do that. That means that those Iranian speedboats? They get destroyed ‘in situ.’ They go ‘boom-boom’ right there in port – at the docks etc. So much for the Speedboats! Want to see the video of the US Navy interdicting similar craft – except they were Iraqi? The video is out there. The Iraqi’s thought they could operate with impunity. The US Navy wasn’t on a war footing with them and they let the Iraqi’s float all around the off-shore Oil Platforms and the Off-Loading islands. The moment the war commenced? Bye-bye baby!!!!!!!!!

yet another straw man

I have not discussed the speed boats, rather I have talked about the FAC's which are a totally different type of vessel. The speed boats since you obviously want to talk about them with this being the 3rd of 4th time you've mentioned them in this post alone. The speed boats are terror weapons. 3-5 man crews, a machine gun and an rpg for the big ones, maybe as small as a 2 man skidoo with an AK or an PRG for the smallest. Bu there are thousands of them. They are also IIRGC crewed so figure on suicide crews. They are a very real threat to the tankers and merchant ships and a stinging nuisance to the USN. More importantly they are radar clutter.

4. That you are not much for tactics is obvious but I cannot believe you don’t understand the concept of ‘picket ships?’ Do you honestly think a Carrier is going to be the first contact shell for say, a Silkworm?

Let me know when you get back from the 1980's. Iran bought several KH-55's in the 1990's and has by some reports reverse engineered them. This is the AS-15 Granat. On top of those Iran also has YJ-82/C-802 Saccade, the Noor an Iranian copy of the C-802 and the Kosowar which is a copy of the C-701. These Kosowar are the most common anti-ship missiles on the Iranian FAC's although they have at least 15 vessels equipped with the C-802.

Think about it a minute… You are going to have to deal with Satellites surveying the situation and letting all the ships in the fleet know that they have had active launches. Then those missiles are going to have pass surveillance from JSTARS etc.

Thank you, seriously thank you for illuminating your ignorance. JSTARS as a missile tracking platform? Not only that but one capable of tracking cruise and ballistic flights. There is a padded roo with your name on it cause your nuts.

Then they are going to have to get by the Destroyers, then the cruisers etc. Each one of them is going to have a go at those missiles. You’ll have to take into account the amount of missiles that are simply going to break down and/or malfunction. Then you’ve got to worry about the electronic jamming, the spoofing, the other guidance interference issues. Then you have to worry about the Sea Sparrows etc. Then you have to worry about the CIWS. Basically, for those missiles, they (the Iranians) have a LOT to worry about. Then you have to take into account that even if a missile or two got through, it isn’t going to take down a carrier – simple as that.

1- you are aware the CIWS is being taken out because it does not work in the modern threat environment. It is being replaced by SEA-RAM. An entire battle group carries less SEA-RAMS than the Iranians have large anti-ship missiles. That brings up the law of probability or no. 2

2- If Iran throws enough weight some will get through.

But why worry about that to begin with – it is extremely doubtful that one of those POS’s would make it through to a carrier. It might, but probably won’t. If by some fortuitous event, one made it through, US damage control is the best in the world. While there may be some dead, it isn’t likely to have too much of an effect (except pissing the US off and strengthening their resolve) for the ability of the Americans to wage war.

Lets ask the Colonel or another China watcher or a proffesional USN member of which this board has several what they think the treat of massed CM/BM/air/surface attack on a USN battle group by foes armed with the C-802 and C-701.

5. Those IRBM’s and SRBM’s that you’ve mentioned? Would those be the ones that had the guidance systems of that of the SS-1 SCUD?

nope not at all.

As far as I know they are unguided once launched – that means that they don’t do well hitting moving targets.

Thanks for illuminating your ignorance. Iran has at least 1 type that can go from a ballistic to a glide path. I do not think it can track-yet. But it is claimed it can and Iran sure seems to be headed in that direction. It is also armed with a sub-munitions warhead. here I refer you to a bit of history. 1 zuni rocket on an A-4 skyhawk very nearly caused the loss of a US Super Carrier and almost killed a possible future president. Carrier decks do not have armored revetments. This means a carrier under BM when the BM's have sub munitions either has to get all its planes in the air, or under the deck. Chances are it will try and do both. But even one fully armed and fuel plane or helo catching 15kg of HE is going to stop flight operations. And the Iranian's don't plan on piece mealing thier attack.

[quote]Couple that with a ‘little-known’ missile system called PATRIOT, outside of a freak accident where a ‘lucky’ warhead hit a housing area that just happened to contain US Troops… On top of that, you are not considering that the Navy is going to ‘ring in’ with their Standard Missile – you know, the one that not only took out a malfunctioning satellite but took out the Hydrozene fuel capsule – a target about five square feet in size![quote]

1- That you would come on to a defense oriented board and call the patriot little know illustrates how little you know.

I am not really worried about much of the Iranian Missile capability.

ignorance is bliss

May I remind you that the Iraqi’s had the same general capabilities with their missiles yet they were useless?

Saddam could only dream of having the missile force Iran does.

The Iraqi Army had some of the BEST field artillery guns ever built (South African in nature) and they didn’t take a single US Soldiers life? Why? Battery Counterfire BABEEEEEEE! They saw the Iraqi incoming, tracked it back to its source, fed coordinates into the 105mm Howitzers and sent metal right back at them.

Another straw man, I am losing count. When did we start talking about artillery battles in 1991?

BTW, 105mm being towed is almost never assigned CBF work. That is the mission of the MLRS and 155 M109's.

6. About the only knowledge that they will have about the location of a Carrier is: Hey, Mahmoud! “Hey, yah, dee Persian Gulf. American Carrier is their right? Mahmoud? Mahmoud?” “Moustaffa! “What did Mahmoud say?” “I dunno, he say something strange… he say: BOOM!” In case you haven’t figured it out, Mahmoud only knew there was a carrier in the Gulf – right before he DIED!

UAV's, P-3 Orions, satelite recon, intelligence trawler, sophisticated sigint- I am not talking about the US but Iran. Their capability is not as robust as ours, but it does exist and your racist comments- giving Iranians Arab names won't chance the facts.

I also want you to understand that simply knowing something doesn’t mean that you can do anything to mitigate it.

That is the problem the US military faces.

It’s just like your MO about hoping that people will make inferences because of the numbers you quote. An air Force can have a billion aircraft but if they can’t get off the ground, don’t have useable weapons, have pilots afraid that the mere fact they are in the aircraft means that they are going to die etc., that massive number doesn’t mean SQUAT!

You just went from straw man to red herring and total and complete ignorance. The IIAF never once failed to do thier best for thier nation. They are not cowards, they do have flying aircraft (140 of them just flew over Tehran) and they do have weapons.

The way that this applies in this instance is that even if they had the exact coordinates, what does that do them when they can’t get to the ship and exploit that information? The Iranians could be prepared to die en masse and that won’t change the fact that they are not going to drop an American Carrier – no way, no how.

The Iranian military and several non-Iranian (including USN personal) feel there is indeed a chance they can drop a carrier.

The Iraqi’s had a better chance with a better capability to do that than the Iranians and the Iraqi’s didn’t have a chance in hell. The best they could muster was hitting the USS Princeton with a free-floating (read: UNGUIDED MINE). No one died on the Princeton and she could have continued her service but the truth was, the Iraqi’s were being so badly beaten, the US Navy didn’t need to have the Princeton in theatre. There goes that line of thought!

Well you swtiched from straw man to red herring for a change. Iraq never trained for a fight with the USN. Iran has spent the past 20 years thinking about how to do just that. Iraq never had the anti-ship capability the Iranians have today.

7. I never said that we could ignore them – we could, but I didn’t say we should be too concerned about them either! The problem isn’t that it chess pieces (individually aren’t good) it is that EVERYTHING it has IS NOT THAT GOOD! In fact, it is just this side of HORRID! Hate to break that nes to you but that is the way that it is.

Your ignorant and a racist.

Again, I have said it time after time but the Iraqi Military post Desert Storm was far better than anything that Iran has.

That is a pretty complete claim of fact, now support it.

The only thing keeping Iraq from running roughshod throughout Iran was terrain and terrain features – remember me saying something about that? Iraq, even being ‘native’ to the area, couldn’t sustain the force, could not provide the logistical chain that the Americans did during Desert Storm and afterwards. That’s the only reason Saddam didn’t walk right down Khomeni Lane!

Oh, we are back to straw men and battle fields now. Iran took more Iraqi territory until the last part of the war, than Iraq took Iranian.

8. No, I do not dismiss them as a third world country. I dismiss them as a Fifth World country as ASS BACKWARDS as you can get! They make Afghanistan (pre-Taliban) look civilized!

Could you be any more racist, your a troll. A classic one at that. I have a feeling you will soon be banned.

You state that they are one of the highest level of countries between Delhi and Jerusalem… that really says a great deal when you consider that what’s there between them have the collective brain power of a twig!

More racism. I doubt you could pass the entrance exams to get into Qatar University. Teheran's university recently made the top 550, not bad for a school located in a country that finds it almost impossible to publish research or get international peer review.

I’m not impressed. And while we are on it… you keep harping on intelligence – did it ever ONCE occur to you that you need some of that intelligence? I mean, think about it… you trot out a rather obscure professor and then proceed to join him with a less-than-stellar (in terms of objectivity) list of genius (Think about it, MY GAWD! The third ranked person on that list was the creator of an animated series called THE SIMPSONS! (as I side note, I invite you to go re-read the conditions of that list and you will see that they didn’t look at simple ‘brain-power’ they looked at how much someone influenced the general public. THAT IS SUBJECTIVE – not OBJECTIVE! That means that your list has NO STANDING! Oh, so that isn’t good enough for you? Then how about this… Professor Javan lives in Massachussetts! He doesn’t live in Iran! He isn’t transporting his knowledge back to Iran! What in the freak do you think Iranians do with knowledge – transmit it by osmosis or something? Are you that intellectually stunted? He isn’t giving the Iranians ANYTHING.

A staw man (highlighted)

An ad hominem (Under lined)

Red Herring (Italics)

Three logical fallacies in one paragraph- way to go.

BTW, he might have been obscure to you, but he is world famous in his feild.

BTW2- I never said they were sending information back. Only that the Iranian people are not stupid a you have made clear you believe.

He can be smarter than anyone ever walking the face of the earth but unless he is DIRECTLY contributing to the Iranians (and they can take advantage of it…) he might as well be locked away in a cube with the lights off and no contact with anyone in Iran for all that’s worth. He is working for the US! Get it?

Red Herring, it is not about him, but about a people who value education.

9. “And our carriers will be operating virtually alone…”? You don’t have any idea of what you are saying do you? You can’t possibly have any idea of what you are saying. Did you see the pictures of those Iranian Speedboats shadowing the US Navy? Did you? Did it occur to you that those ships were the Picket Ships in the Naval Task Force? Do you even know what a task force is or means? It doesn’t mean that there is a carrier out there… it means that there are several ships out there all working together and interrelated – organic if you will. Did it ever occur to you the Carriers are deeper in the Med and deeper in the Gulf than those pickets ships? Have you ever thought about using a Zodiac in the middle of the Persian Gulf? Try it sometime – when you get swamped because of 10 foot seas and you’ve drowned, what effect do you think your boat is going to have? NONE! The Carriers are well away from the operating areas that those little coastal boats operate in. They mean very little to the Carriers in the scheme of things. Those Carriers are FAR from operating alone. They have AWACS and JSTARS support. They have HUMINT, ELINT, SIGINT resources. They have at least thirty other offensive and defense support ships within thirty miles. They have offensive and defensive support from land-based fighter and attack aircraft – Twenty four hours around the clock, seven days a week. Yeah, they are out there operating virtually alone alright.

fallacy of context aka contextomy. If Iranian BM's shut down the air bases they will not have USAF support. If they trap a carrier in the gulf, they will not even have USN air other than thier own. This is clearly what I meant. That the battle group will have to fight its war alone not as part of a joint force.

The Iranians will find out how wrong that assumption is the moment that they try to send any force out there. In fact, I’d be willing to bet you that an Iranian Combat Aircraft on an offensive mission will not get within 20 miles of an American Carrier. I would be willing to bet that no American Carrier will get within 100 miles of a piece Iranian potential offensive equipment. They don’t need to. That is called “STAND OFF CAPABILITY!”

100 miles, you said it, I highlighted it. Thats 24 miles to short for at least 1 iranian platform and 1764 miles to short for at least 1 other.

They can sit in the Gulf or the Med at their leisure and launch A/c at their proverbial whim – whatsmore… they will do exactly that.

From the med? They are going to launch single seat fighters with a 600km range on a 2400km round trip.....

The Iranian stuff isn’t going to have the range to get there from Iranian shores. They aren’t going to nail the Carriers with Zodiacs. The Zodiacs would founder and sink before they got with 50 miles of the Carriers.

Red Herring

The Iranian Diesel subs? Well, the LA Class Attack subs that are out there are going to have their sonars on high gain and are going to pick thoise noisy diesel-electrics up without any effort

You think diesel electric subs in littoral waters are noisy?

– so they know where they are going to be, so if one leaves port – it’s going to get a Mk48 ADCAP right up its behind and it go ‘BOOM!’ But I digress, why worry about that when a Virgina Class Sub is going to drop in a few SEAL Platoons and plant some mines, and contact explosives on the hulls and blow them to kingdom come right there in port!

Yes, becuase every one knows the Iranian subs never sortie in peace time.

Those that maybe might be out to sea? Well the LA’s get to have some fun with them. Do you honestly think that the Americans don’t know where EVERY single Iranian sub is at and what status it is in at this very moment?

No I don't think the Americans have lost the Iranian subs, but I could be wrong and one could be on the loose. After all a Ming class (vice Romeo class USSR vice type XXI U-boat of WW2 fame) recently surfaced in the middle of a US carrier group.

The Americans knew that about the Russians, you think the Iranians are better at concealment than the Russians? Are you out of your ever-lovin’ cotton pickin’ mind? Then those fair-haired Fancy Nancy Boys of the Iranian Navy? The ones that like their regional brethren, the Iraqi’s the ones that won’t leave port because they don’t want to die?

More racism.

Well, maybe, just maybe you might see what’s known as ‘fouling line’..... just more of the same till the end of the post....

Troll, do you feel big now?

The one thing that disappoints me is that no one else is taking the time to also confirm to you that you don’t have any idea of what you are talking about – instead, they are leaving it up to me. I guess they don’t feel you are worth the effort and that I am doing fine by myself.

Give your self a trophy. While your polishing it look at the number of banned members. This place does not suffer fools for long. That I have been here for years among former and current officers and defense industry professionals while never reaching higher than E-4 in the US military should have told you something. We don't always see eye to eye, and I have been called to the carpet but I am still here and have had these self same professionals ask my opinion.

You are a troll, you are not here to debate but to spout your racism. Move along little troll...

[Officer of Engineers]

All right, people, now that we got the personal insults out of your system, let's get back to the topic or I will close this thread.

Z,

I agree with your individual stipulations but combined? Again, that is something we never saw out of the Iranians. In short, within a 24 hour timespan. Everything has to go right (which I doubt, the USN would see the Iranians long before the Iranians could see the carrier) including the sun and moon being in the right place at the right time (weather wise).

All Shihab-x series are liquid fuel, meaning that we would see the prep work at least 24 hours in advance (more like 72 considering that they have more missiles than they have fuel trucks), especially for 100+ missiles, never mind the 600 salvo that they claim they could do. And considering these are liquid fuel, doing that many missiles in such a short time (which they've never done, not even in exercises), I will bet more than one would be a glowing fireball before the fuel truck finishes.

Also, never mind we see them loading up ammo and fueling up their boats. And their planes? We will see missiles and fuel dripping off them long before they even take off, especially 140 and never mind that they've never managed an exercise with so many planes.

I just don't see how they can do all of this without tipping off the US.