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Another Look at Putin Re-Armament

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  • Another Look at Putin Re-Armament

    This is a link to a pdf webpage in Russian that goes over the facts about Putins actions in regards to the military. The situation with the weapons and quality of the Russian military is reaching a critical level. The Russian Army is losing strength and losing strength fast. Russian weapon purchases, particularly in the strategically important areas of aircraft and blue-water naval vessels have dropped even in comparison to the unpleasant 90s. I'm sorry that I couldn't find a copy of this study in English, but seeing all the Russian translators you guys seem to be using, maybe someone wouldn't mind using one to translate the study.

    http://www.apn.ru/userdata/files/ins/INS-MR-1.pdf

  • #2
    Here's another interesting report. While overall the land forces are being kept at sustenance level with minimal modernization, the airforce and navy are getting next to nothing at all.

    Moscow Defense Brief

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    • #3
      What are the reasons for this negligence? Money is no longer a problem and Putin is supposed to be a nationalist reviving Russia to old glory.
      There are 10 kinds of people in the world, those who understand binary and those who don’t..

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      • #4
        Originally posted by WhamBam View Post
        What are the reasons for this negligence? Money is no longer a problem and Putin is supposed to be a nationalist reviving Russia to old glory.
        Money is a huge problem. Russia is broke and the oil and natural gas industries need trillions of dollars to rebuild. Not to mention everything else that needs to be rebuilt. Yeltsin and Putin squandered their opportunity in the 1990s to get capitalism to rebuild the country. Instead, they the kleptocracy have free run.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by wabpilot View Post
          Money is a huge problem. Russia is broke and the oil and natural gas industries need trillions of dollars to rebuild. Not to mention everything else that needs to be rebuilt. Yeltsin and Putin squandered their opportunity in the 1990s to get capitalism to rebuild the country. Instead, they the kleptocracy have free run.
          I thought Russia is flush with funds now after the surge in oil prices. Their foreign exchange reserves are overflowing (~455 billion at last count). So I am not too sure about this 'broke' thing.
          There are 10 kinds of people in the world, those who understand binary and those who don’t..

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          • #6
            Having lots of foreign exchange reserves is not the same as having an economy.
            HD Ready?

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            • #7
              I am no economist, but looking at the economist site, they don't seem to be doing badly at all. Average real GDP growth rate of 6.4 % over the last 5 years, GDP greater than a trillion dollars, soaring foreign reserves do provide room for spending on military.

              My understanding is that Russia is one of the most dynamic and fastest growing economies in the world now. Of course it can't be compared to the developed economies but they are doing rather well.
              There are 10 kinds of people in the world, those who understand binary and those who don’t..

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              • #8
                The military is ridiculously corrupt and horribly underfunded. The second link covers, rather thoroughly, Russian defense spendings. Around 69% of the Russian military budget is to be spent on weapons, out of which 47% is to be new purchases. 11.22 billion dollars. Lets do the math here, we have around 7.3-7.5 billion on weapons. Yet according to the planned purchases this money gives us: 17 ICBMs, 9 sattelites, 1 Strat bomber, 6 tac-bombers, 9 attack helicopters, 1 batallion of strat SAMs (one batallion is about 8-12 launchers and a command post), 1 VIP jet, 31 T-90s, ''a few'' BMPTs, 10 BMD-4, 40 BMP-3, 100 BTR-80, 12 Iskanders, and 2000 KaMaZ trucks. Not much of a re-armament. Mostly is seems like sustenance levels, and below, to replace equipment headed for the junkyard, rather then a modernization on any meaningful level. Morever while there are many Naval projects currently laid down, it doesn't seem like any of them will be ready in '07. And of course Russian nuclear subs of the Yuri Dolgorukiy class still have no missile, as the Bulava has yet to be fired successfully.

                EDIT: My point is that the ''resurgence'' of Russian militarism is pure fiction. The Russian military is weaker then it was even in the mid-90s. Modernization programs are lagging, the navy is quickly losing blue water potential, and the army is re-equipping at a monstrously slow rate.

                EDIT 2: Military and Defense Professionals on this board. Please take a look at this. Is this normal for a military budget? Does the military budget of this size suffice for an armed forces numbering over one million men? Am I just hopelessly lost here or do these numbers just not add up?
                Last edited by Feanor; 27 Nov 07,, 04:28.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by WhamBam View Post
                  I thought Russia is flush with funds now after the surge in oil prices. Their foreign exchange reserves are overflowing (~455 billion at last count). So I am not too sure about this 'broke' thing.
                  Foreign exchange reserves are held by central banks for the purpose of implementing monetary policy. FOREX has nothing to do with the relative wealth of a country.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Feanor View Post
                    ...maybe someone wouldn't mind using one to translate the study.

                    http://www.apn.ru/userdata/files/ins/INS-MR-1.pdf
                    Crude translation of cover page confirms what you said. Sorry, I don't have the will to do the whole report.:)

                    Last years путинский the Kremlin has made to generate a lot of a myth about " revival of military power of Russia " hardly probable up to the Soviet level.

                    One of the major problems of authors of the present report - to show, that this myth has no anything the general with a reality. It is necessary to recognize the truth however bitter it was: contrary to official propagation, Armed forces of the Russian Federation are in the deepest crisis which was aggravated with the most serious image at president Vladimir Putin.

                    Moreover: unfortunate trends in development of military sphere have accepted in " Putin's epoch ", appreciably, irreversible character.
                    It is remarkable, that путинский the myth about " military power " the Russian Federation is rather popular in the West, is supported and extends politicians and mass-media of some countries G7.

                    Let's result some characteristic citations, каковые it is possible to consider "fresh enough".

                    Others who wish to translate can use this site.
                    http://ets6.freetranslation.com/
                    To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

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                    • #11
                      The site didn't work for me. It came up as a blank page. No error message or anything. The Moscow Defense Brief link I posted is in English and has coverage of all the defense purchases Russia plans to make, as well as modernization programs, for '07.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Feanor View Post
                        The site didn't work for me. It came up as a blank page. No error message or anything. The Moscow Defense Brief link I posted is in English and has coverage of all the defense purchases Russia plans to make, as well as modernization programs, for '07.
                        Sorry about that; here's the correct URL.

                        Free Translation and Professional Translation Services from SDL International
                        To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

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                        • #13
                          I think to say Russia is broke is not very accurate from an economist point of view. Infact as someone has pointed out, Russia is among the fastest growing economies on the planet at the moment. Without going into complexities, it is fair to say having foreign reserves is a sign of a growing wealth of a country.

                          Having said that however, to say the wealth is to the extent of Soviet former glory is another thing altogether. Whilst Russia is now growing in wealth, the simple truth is it will require a lot more than it has at the moment to restore it to its former glory. If they pursue such a policy they would simply bankrupt themselves. Lets face it ladies and gentlemen, Russia has had 2 decades of decline it will take more than just sporadic oil price rises to bring it to its former glory. But otherwise for now hey, they are doing remarkably well, lets be happy for them:).

                          Lastly, i think Russia will be better advised to follow the Chineese strategy: Pursue an economic agenda first and then military when the time comes. The Russian population is dissapearing before their eyes and instead of the government adressing these issues it is busy pouring money in the military. Whoever said 'glory' is defined by military might? But then again, what do i know about Russia. Perhaps history and geopolitical issues come into play compelling Russia to focus on military at the expense of all other issues. Good luck to them!

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Feanor View Post
                            This is a link to a pdf webpage in Russian that goes over the facts about Putins actions in regards to the military. The situation with the weapons and quality of the Russian military is reaching a critical level. The Russian Army is losing strength and losing strength fast. Russian weapon purchases, particularly in the strategically important areas of aircraft and blue-water naval vessels have dropped even in comparison to the unpleasant 90s. I'm sorry that I couldn't find a copy of this study in English, but seeing all the Russian translators you guys seem to be using, maybe someone wouldn't mind using one to translate the study.

                            http://www.apn.ru/userdata/files/ins/INS-MR-1.pdf
                            In the end of this report is a signature that it was written by group of authors : Mikhail Remizov, Alexander Khramchikhin, Anatoly Tsyganok, Roman Karev, Stanislav Belkovski. Unfortunately only one person amongst them is a military professional - Anatoly Tsyganok. All others are writers, journalists, physicists, publicists, politicians. I don't know how much their opinion may be accepted as reliable and valid.

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                            • #15
                              Which is why I provided a copy of the Moscow Brief publication on the military budget of the RF for '07: Moscow Defense Brief

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