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  • New PRC defense minister

    Hu seen choosing PLA’s Taiwan expert as defense minister

    Composition of the new Central Military Commission (CMC) to be formed at the upcoming 17th Party Congress will be no less eye-catching than the identities of the upcoming Politburo members.

    Gen. Cao Gangchuan, right, with Raul Castro, during his recent farewell tour of Latin America. Washington Post
    This will be the first CMC to be put together under the direct control of President and General Secretary Hu Jintao, who became chairman of this policy-setting military organ less than three years ago. Given his lack of previous military experience, Hu is most anxious to boost his grip on the armed forces, deemed a key pillar of the Communist regime.

    And the focus is very much on the successor of one of the second-ranked among the three CMC vice-chairmen: Cao Gangchuan, 71, who is also a Politburo member and defense minister.

    Cao is one of the last generals to have been trained in the former Soviet Union; and he used to be director of the General Armaments Department (GAD), in charge of research and development and weapons procurement before his elevation to the commission.

    Cao, who speaks fluent Russian, played a key role in negotiating the multi-billion dollar contracts to buy sophisticated hardware from Moscow. Cao has just completed a swan song visit to Latin America, where he spent some quality time with the ailing Cuban dictator Fidel Castro.

    Two candidates are tipped to be frontrunners to get Cao’s job: Generals Xu Caihou and Chen Bingde.

    Xu, 64, the third-ranked CMC vice-chairman, is a veteran political commissar, although he has no field or command-and-control experience. He may also be too close to former President Jiang Zemin to enjoy Hu's total trust.

    The smart money is with Chen, 66, the current GAD director. Even more crucial for long-time PLA specialists, however, is the fact that Chen is an acknowledged expert on Taiwan.

    As commander of the Nanjing Military Region in the 1980s and early 1990s, Chen figured prominently in a series of war games along the coast just opposite the “breakaway province.”

    Beijing sources close to the military say that Chen has maintained a good rapport with his boss, Hu. Given his high standing with members of the top brass, Chen may one day replace the first-ranked CMC Vice Chairman Gen. Guo Boxiong, who is also a Politburo member.

    The sources said Chen’s elevation will also mean that Hu and the CCP leadership want to send a “strong” signal to both the U.S. and Taiwan about Beijing’s “commitment to eradicate Taiwan separatism.”

    Meanwhile, Hu is spending more time with PLA officers to further consolidate his hold over the defense forces. Like predecessor Jiang, Hu has officiated at major graduation ceremonies at the National Defense University.

    The president and commander-in-chief has also made it a point to have a “heart-to-heart talk” with every newly promoted officer with the rank of major-general. In accordance with PLA tradition, Hu will undertake a reshuffle of senior military officers at and immediately after the 17th Congress.

    Apart from giving the top brass big budget boosts every year, Hu has used measures including promotions — and beefing up retirement benefits — to secure the support of generals who have indicated their willingness to “profess loyalty to the party and military leadership with comrade Hu Jintao as its core.”
    Willy Lam is a Hong Kong-based China scholar and journalist specializing in Communist Party politics and foreign policy.
    “the misery of being exploited by capitalists is nothing compared to the misery of not being exploited at all” -- Joan Robinson

  • #2
    Again, willy shows he has no idea what he is talking about; as Liang Guanglie is considered to be an expert on TW, not Chen. Then again, Liang is too much of a combat engineer to be trusted with such a political position, not sure he wanted it.
    “the misery of being exploited by capitalists is nothing compared to the misery of not being exploited at all” -- Joan Robinson

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    • #3
      Andy,

      I don't expect much to change with a new MND. Cao has estalished the procurement cycle and it would be damned hard to break it as far as modernization is concerned.

      There might be changes as far as the tactical and maybe even the operational picture (our CDF debates on where division fits for example) but I don't see any big changes as far as the equipment picture is concerned which in turn would limit what tactical and operational changes there might be.

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      • #4
        The idea of selecting someone from GAD is interesting as there are rumors of additional privatization of PRC's Military-industrial complexes for over a year now. According to Xinhua news, the recent well publicized J-10 program is a way to justify or “show-off” results of disbanding of the old COSTIND. Besides military, I’d expect more of the following:

        Note, Liang still plays a huge role in decision making.

        China to privatize logistics services
        Wed, 23 May 2007 08:38:18


        Chinese army is to hive off logistics services to private contractors for the first time in the latest drive for efficiency and cost-cutting.

        The head of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), General Liao Xilong said Tuesday a 12-point plan for reform of the logistics services has been approved by Chinese President Hu Jintao, who is also the Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC).

        The plan includes allowing the PLA to rent commercial vehicles for official activities, allowing service personnel to use civil telecommunications services for personal purposes and employing civilian schools to train technicians, Xinhua news agency reported.

        The CMC has also decided to privatize the management of barracks for troops stationed in large and middle-sized cities, hiring private warehouses for the storage of general-purpose materials.

        The PLA will also reduce the number of hotels, guesthouses and training centers run by it to the minimum.

        While the number of the equipment repair units will be scaled down, the PLA's research and development institutions will be transformed into civil and military dual-purpose organizations.

        The 1.2 million-strong PLA has a defense budget of nearly $ 44 billion dollars.

        In March, China hiked its defense budget for 2007 by a whopping 17.8 percent to $43.95 billion for the current fiscal year.
        “the misery of being exploited by capitalists is nothing compared to the misery of not being exploited at all” -- Joan Robinson

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