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Thread: Russian Air Force is on verge of disappearing

  1. #1
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    Russian Air Force is on verge of disappearing

    I recently had an interesting talk with one Russian aviation industry analyst. His estimates are really SHOCKING. If he is correct than Russian air might may disappear by 2012

    - RUSSIA DID NOT BUY NEW MILLITARY PLANES FOR ALMOST 12 YEARS!
    - At the same rate of spendings Russia will have JUST SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 200 FIGHTERS by 2012!!!
    - This was first year when Russia ordered fighters for RAF. However those 7 Su-35 are well bellow replacement rate (only these year 15 Su-27 would need to be replaced or upgraded/repaired profoundly).

    Hence to maintain adequate might of RAF Russia will need to spend around US$15bn by 2015. However no sign of where this money will come from.

    Fighters --------------1987-------2002------2012 (no spending)
    MiG-21 Fishbed-------490-------0---------0-
    Mig-23 Flogger -------1,990------0----------0
    MiG-25 Foxbat -------410 -------48 -------0
    MiG-31 Foxhound ---125 ------160 -------10
    MiG-29 Fulcrum------275 -------334 ------120
    Su-15 Flagon --------500 -------0---------0
    Su-27 Flanker --------100 ------366 ------150
    Tu-28/128 Fiddler----100 -------0---------0
    Jak-28 Firebar---------85 --------0---------0
    ------------------------------------------------------
    Total-----------------4,075 -----908 ------280
    Last edited by Garry; 01 Dec 04, at 14:05.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Garry
    I recently had an interesting talk with one Russian aviation industry analyst. His estimates are really SHOCKING. If he is correct than Russian air might may disappear by 2012

    - RUSSIA DID NOT BUY NEW MILLITARY PLANES FOR ALMOST 12 YEARS!
    - At the same rate of spendings Russia will have JUST SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 200 FIGHTERS by 2012!!!
    - This was first year when Russia ordered fighters for RAF. However those 7 Su-35 are well bellow replacement rate (only these year 15 Su-27 would need to be replaced or upgraded/repaired profoundly).

    Hence to maintain adequate might of RAF Russia will need to spend around US$15bn by 2015. However no sign of where this money will come from.

    Fighters --------------1987-------2002------2012 (no spending)
    MiG-21 Fishbed-------490-------0---------0-
    Mig-23 Flogger -------1,990------0----------0
    MiG-25 Foxbat -------410 -------48 -------0
    MiG-31 Foxhound ---125 ------160 -------10
    MiG-29 Fulcrum------275 -------334 ------120
    Su-15 Flagon --------500 -------0---------0
    Su-27 Flanker --------100 ------366 ------150
    Tu-28/128 Fiddler----100 -------0---------0
    Jak-28 Firebar---------85 --------0---------0
    ------------------------------------------------------
    Total-----------------4,075 -----908 ------280

    Garry its about time you woke up from your delusional dream buddy!

    Last I checked the numbers of Russian aircraft operational right now were as follows:

    350- Su27's
    150- Su-30M's
    19 - Su-27M's/ 35's
    ( with a peovisional order for another 75 to be delivered by end of next year)

    Add to this total about 300 or so Mig-29B/S, another 200 Mig-29/ 9-13's and atleast 75 of the 29K Navalised Fulcrums!

    In addition we have no fewer than 300 or so Mig-31B's and at least 150 of the new build 31M's with inflight refueling and RVV-AE capability.

    There are also at elast 200 Mig-25's of all variations and another 200 or so Su-24 Fencers!

    In the startegic bomber force the numbers include at least 80 Tu-95MS 'Bears' and another 60 or so Tu-22M backfires supplanted by no fewer than 25-30 Tu-160 Black jacks!

    With developments of the Okb Mig's LFI/ MFS 5th gen trainer aswell as Pak-Fa from Okb Sukhoi, I am not doubtful of Russian AF's future. They have recently become the worlds largest exported of oil!, and defence and commercial business with both China and India is booming.

    P.S. You have to remember that what the U.S. accomplishes for 200 billion! russia accomplishes for 20 billion!

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    can you please paste the source of ur information too??

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    Quote Originally Posted by lulldapull
    Garry its about time you woke up from your delusional dream buddy!

    Last I checked the numbers of Russian aircraft operational right now were as follows:

    350- Su27's
    150- Su-30M's
    19 - Su-27M's/ 35's
    ( with a peovisional order for another 75 to be delivered by end of next year)

    Add to this total about 300 or so Mig-29B/S, another 200 Mig-29/ 9-13's and atleast 75 of the 29K Navalised Fulcrums!

    In addition we have no fewer than 300 or so Mig-31B's and at least 150 of the new build 31M's with inflight refueling and RVV-AE capability.

    There are also at elast 200 Mig-25's of all variations and another 200 or so Su-24 Fencers!

    In the startegic bomber force the numbers include at least 80 Tu-95MS 'Bears' and another 60 or so Tu-22M backfires supplanted by no fewer than 25-30 Tu-160 Black jacks!

    With developments of the Okb Mig's LFI/ MFS 5th gen trainer aswell as Pak-Fa from Okb Sukhoi, I am not doubtful of Russian AF's future. They have recently become the worlds largest exported of oil!, and defence and commercial business with both China and India is booming.

    P.S. You have to remember that what the U.S. accomplishes for 200 billion! russia accomplishes for 20 billion!
    Well hope you are right. That were not my figures but his estimates actually corresponds to small research I made myself today. I pasted an article I found today + few online sources. I am not insisting that we must rely on these sources but something smells like Russia is really in need of urgent investments of those $10bn....

    DOES ANYBODY HAS SOURCES WHERE I CAN SEE ESTIMATES OF PLAF TO COMPARE?

    Take a look at this (in Russian).....

    ps. sorry for this smiles they come because site does not understand russian characters.

    ВСЯ РОССИЙСКАЯ РАТЬ.

    ВИКТОР ЛИТОВКИН, ВОЕННЫЙ ОБОЗРЕВАТЕЛЬ РИА "НОВОСТИ", - СПЕЦИАЛЬНО ДЛЯ "ВРЕМЕНИ МН".
    2,938 words
    21 May 2003
    Время МН (Россия)
    Russian
    (c) 2003 Vremya MN, Russian Story, Inc. All Rights Reserved

    Вооруженные силы России лишь частично готовы к вызовам нового века

    Существенное перевооружение армии и флота, совершенствование принципов их комплектования и улучшение самой структуры вооруженных сил президент России Владимир Путин назвал ключевыми вопросами военной реформы. Она продолжается уже несколько лет. С чего началась эта реформа?

    Что представляет собой российская армия сегодня? Об этом на конкретных цифрах и фактах рассказывает наша газета*.

    России досталось 70 процентов военного потенциала бывшего СССР, по большей части его тыловые военные округа, но в то же время монопольное право обладания стратегическим ядерным оружием, контроль над военно-морскими и космическими компонентами, основными узлами связи и управления, испытательными и учебными центрами, а также всеми резервами государства. Потеря самых мощных общевойсковых и авиационных соединений, расположенных на Украине и в Белоруссии, была компенсирована за счет вывода на территорию России практически всех основных дивизий из Восточной Европы. Но в то же время на Российскую Федерацию лег и весь груз расходов за их размещение на новом месте, обустройство, создание новой боевой инфраструктуры и реформирование........

    I DELETED TWO PAGES OF TEXT

    Военно-Воздушные силы

    Ядерным оружием стратегического назначения располагают и Военно-Воздушные силы России (главнокомандующий генерал армии Владимир Михайлов). Стратегические бомбардировщики входят в состав 37-й отдельной воздушной армии и располагают 15 Ту-160 (на Западе их называют Bleckjack), дислоцирующимися в Энгельсе Саратовской области (в Казанском авиационном объединении имени Горбунова строятся еще три таких самолета), и 63 Ту-95МС ("Bear-Н) и 117 Ту-22М3 ("Blackfair"), размещенными на базах в Энгельсе, Рязани и Украинке (Дальний Восток). Они могут нести крылатые ракеты с ядерными боеголовками.Свои боевые возможности стратегическая (дальняя) авиация России продемонстрировала в мае нынешнего года, когда ракетоносцы Ту-160 и Ту-95МС, стартовавшие с военных баз в Энгельсе и Рязани, во взаимодействии с кораблями Черноморского и Тихоокеанского флотов поразили крылатыми ракетами цели в районе Индийского океана.

    А кроме дальней авиации, ВВС включают в себя военно-транспортную, истребительную, фронтовую авиацию и авиацию Сухопутных войск, переданную ей в 2002 году после трагедии вертолета Ми-24 под Ханкалой, где погибло 128 военнослужащих. Весь этот парк располагает более 830 штурмовиками и бомбардировщиками Су-24, Су-25 и Су-32, более 908 истребителями МиГ-25, МиГ-29, МиГ-31 и Су-27 ("Сухих" около 400 единиц), двадцатью самолетами дальнего радиолокационного дозора, обнаружения и наблюдения А-50 (типа АВАКС), более 320 транспортными самолетами Ил-76МД, Ан-12, Ан-124 и Ан-22, а так же 1700 атакующими и транспортными вертолетами. В основном Ми-8, Ми-24 и Ми-26. В ВВС только 8 атакующих вертолетов Ка-50 "Черная акула".

    Главная проблема российской военной авиации - недостаточная летная практика пилотов из-за нехватки горюче-смазочных материалов. При норме в 120-150 часов в год налетанность летчиков тактической авиации в среднем составляет не более 25 часов, военно-транспортной - 60 часов.

    С марта 1998 года в состав ВВС входят и войска ПВО страны. Войска противовоздушной обороны вместе с истребительной авиацией ВВС предназначены для защиты административных и промышленно-экономических центров России, а также группировок войск и важнейших военно-промышленных объектов от ударов с воздуха и из космоса. Они включают в себя зенитные ракетные и радиотехнические войска, а также части и подразделения радиоэлектронной борьбы, многие другие части обеспечения боевых действий. Основное вооружение ПВО - это зенитно-ракетный комплекс С-300ПМУ "Фаворит", созданный на НПО "Алмаз". Их насчитывается в войсках около двух тысяч. Новый зенитно-ракетный комплекс С-400 "Триумф" должен поступить в армию к концу нынешнего года.

    I DELETED SOME TEXT

    досье

    Вооруженные силы России созданы 7 мая 1992 года указом президента Бориса Ельцина после распада Советского Союза и несостоявшейся идеи об образовании Объединенного командования Содружества независимых государств. Первым министром обороны стал генерал-полковник Павел Грачев (1992-1996 гг.), начальником Генерального штаба - генерал армии Виктор Дубынин (1992 год). Тогда они насчитывали 2730136 человек, из них 2321 генералы и адмиралы.

    Боевая техника и вооружение российской армии Виды

    15 Ту-160

    63 Ту-95МС

    117 Ту-22М3

    860 штурмовых бомбардировщиков

    908 истребителей

    20 АВАКСов

    320 транспортных самолетов

    1700 вертолетов
    __________________________________________________ _
    and this gives estimates of Air Force in 1987

    http://www.aviation.ru/data/Regiments.html
    http://www.warfare.ru/?catid=239&linkid=2178
    http://www.saunalahti.fi/~fta/ruaf-1.htm

    something about production of MIG-29
    http://www.sci.fi/~fta/MiG-29-1.htm

    some other figires
    http://mylima.com/airforce/qr.htm#RUSSIA
    Last edited by Garry; 01 Dec 04, at 19:00.

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    "supplanted by no fewer than 25-30 Tu-160 Black jacks! "

    Last i checked Russia had all of about a dozen or so blackjacks.

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    Here you go boys! From the latest what I have read on enik's Russian aviation website the Ukrainians also returned the 9 Tu-160's that they were holding hostage! and they destroyed the 25 Tu-95MS Bears in a pact signed with Putin last year! That effectively almost doubled Russian inventory from 15 aircraft to 24!

    P.S. one Black Jack crashed last year when its wing tanks ruptured and somehow exploded and all four ruskies died!

    Anyway Global security claims that right now Russia has 24-25. and Kazan is building another three, which wil be delivered by the end of this year:

    Tu-160 BLACKJACK (TUPOLEV)

    First flown in 1982, the Tupolev Tu-160 'Blackjack' is a counterpart to the American B-1B. Both share a similar configuration, but the Soviet designed bomber is about 30 percent larger and considerably faster. Its initial combat radius of 7300 km is estimated on a mission profile of subsonic high altitude cruise, transonic penetration at low altitude. The Blackjack has a conventional or nuclear free-fall bombing capability, but it has more often been associated with the AS-15 'Kent' cruise missile. The Blackjack is an extremely expensive aircraft, so with the current economic crisis affecting the former Soviet Union, together with the relaxation in international tension, it is unlikely that more than the 25 bombers currently in service will be completed.

    The Tu-160 is a multi-mission strategic bomber designed for operations ranging from subsonic speeds and low altitudes to speeds over Mach 1 at high altitudes. The two weapons bays can accommodate different mission-specific loads, including strategic cruise missiles, short-range guided missiles, nuclear and conventional bombs, and mines. Its basic armament of short-range guided missiles and strategic cruise missiles enables it to deliver nuclear strikes to targets with preassigned coordinates.In the future, after the aircraft is equipped with high-precision conventional weapons it may also be used against mobile or tactical targets.

    The Tu-160 was the outcome of a multi-mission bomber competition, which included a Tupolev proposal for an aircraft design using elements of the Tu-144, the Myasishchev M- 18, and the Sukhoi a design based on the T-4 aircraft. The project of Myasishchev was considered to be the most successful, although the Tupolev organization was regarded as having the greatest potential for completing this complex project. As a result, Tupolev was assigned to develop an aircraft using elements of the Myasishchev M-18 bomber design. The project was supervised by V.N. Binznyuk. Trial operations in the Air Forces began in 1987 with serial production being conducted at the Kazan Aviation Association.

    The Tu-160 is characterized by low-mounted, swept-back, and tapered, variable geometry wings with large fixed-center section. The variable geometry wings (from 20 degrees up to 65 degrees) allows for both flight at supersonic and subsonic speeds. Four NK-32 TRDDF [turbojet bypass engines with afterburners] of 25,000 kilograms-force power the T-160. The four turbofans, developed by OKB Kuznetsov in 1977, are mounted in pairs under the fixed-center section with square intakes and exhausts extending behind the wings’ trailing edges. The fuselage's slim structure is marked by a long, pointed, slightly upturned nose section and a stepped canopy. Tail flats are swept-back, tapered, and mid-mounted on the fin. The tail fin is back-tapered with a square tip and a fairing in the leading edge. The tail cone is located past the tail section. During the design of the aircraft, special attention was paid to reducing its signature. Measures were applied to reduce the signature of the engines to infra-red and radar detectors. Tests of these survivability measures were first tested on a TU-95 aircraft in 1980.

    As the most powerful combat aircraft of the Soviet Air Forces, the T-160 flies at 2,000 km/hr and can exceed the 2,000 mark with a mission-specific load. The T-160 can climb 60-70 meters per second and reach heights of up 15,000 meters. The bomber can be refueled during flight by IL-78 and ZMS-2 tanker aircraft. The air refueling system consists of a probe and drogue airborne refueling system.

    The TU-160 can carry up to 12 Kh-55 long range missiles and Kh-15 short range missiles. The weapons bays can accommodate different loads: carries various bombs: From fee falling nuclear and regular up to 1500 kg bombs. The bomber is not equipped with artillery armament.

    The Tu-160 is equipped with a combined navigation-and-weapon aiming system, RID; [radar] for detecting targets on the ground and sea at long distances, an optical-electronic bombsight, an automatic terrain-following system, and active and passive radio-electronic warfare systems, as well as a probe-and-drogue airborne refueling system. It is equipped with K-36DM ejection seats. The cockpit instruments are the traditional electromechanical variety. The aircraft is controlled with the aid of a central control column. The engine control throttles are located between the pilots' seats. There is a rest area, a toilet, and a cupboard for warming up food.

    Studies have also been conducted on using the aircraft as a launch platform for the "Burlak" space launch vehicle, which is designed to carry payloads with a mass of 300 to 500 kg in polar orbits at an altitude of 500 to 700 km. Under this concept the launch vehicle, which has a solid-fuel engine and a delta wing, would be suspended under the airplane's fuselage.

    In 1981 OKB Tupolev built two prototypes of the bomber and one mock-up that was used for static tests. The first flight test of the "70" aircraft took place on 19 December 1981. During flight tests, one of the two original planes was lost. Shortly after tests began, series production started. In 1984, the factory in Kazan started producing the bomber which received the designation TU-160. Initial plans provided for the construction of 100 airplanes but when their production was stopped in 1992, only 36 bombers had been built.

    In May 1987, deployment of the first bombers began. Until the end of 1991, 19 TU-160 bombers served in the 184th regiment in Ukraine and became Ukrainian property after the dissolution of the USSR. In 1992 the 121th air regiment based at the aerodrome B.G. Engels was equippd with TU-160 bombers. Subsequently the bombers were tested to carry long range missiles.

    It was reported on 02 July 1999 that the Gorbunov Kazan Air Industrial Association received an order from the Ministry of Defense of Russia to complete the production of one Tu-160 strategic bomber. According to the Association's general director Nail Hairullin the contract for the aircraft production was worth 45 million rubles.

    In July 1999 the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Alexander Kuzmuk confirmed that Kiev officially proposed that Moscow accept as payment for the gas debts "about 10 strategic bombers Tu-160 and Tu-95". He refused to tell the exact cost of missile carriers, however, in his judgment, it would be "considerably more" than 25 million dollars for each machine. On 12 October 1999 the Russian air force announced an agreement that would allow Ukraine to pay some of its multimillion-dollar energy debts by handing over 11 strategic bombers. Ukraine had tried to unload the bombers since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, but talks had foundered because of differences over the price tag and other conditions. The deal includes eight Tupolev 160 Blackjack bombers and three Tupolev 95 Bears.

    The 11 strategic bombers and 600 air-launched missiles exchanged by Ukraine to Russia in payment for the gas debt were transferred in mid-February 2000. Two Tu-160 bombers flew from Priluki in the Ukrainian Chernigov region for the Russian air base in Engels. The missiles were sent to Russia by railroad. Three Tu-95MS bombers and six Tu-160 airplanes had already arrived at Engels since October 1999 in fulfillment of the intergovernmental agreements. Before being moved to Russia, 19 Tu-160 airplanes were stationed at the Priluki airfield and 21 Tu-95MS were located in Uzin.

    In early 2002 it was reported that Long-Range Aviation would soon receive three additional Tu-160 strategic bombers, being built by the Kazan aircraft plant. The first bomber funded from the 2002 state defense order was to be passed over to the military by the end of the year. After completion of the program Russia will have a fleet consisting of 24 supersonic bombers capable of using nuclear and conventional weapons. In addition, the Kazan plant will upgrade the bombers which the Air Force already has. The Tu-160 bombers will be equipped with upgraded avionics and long-distance cruise missiles. The upgrade program of these warplanes will cost around $4 billion.

    And this is 2 years old news! The current fleet of BlackJacks should be about 30!

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    "And this is 2 years old news! The current fleet of BlackJacks should be about 30! "

    And this excites you why, exactly???

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    Yah, the US has over 150 Strategic Bombers on active duty:-D

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    Idea that Russian Air Force will die out or cease to be able to perform its mission, which never was trecking around the world, is preposterous.

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    "Idea that Russian Air Force will die out or cease to be able to perform its mission, which never was trecking around the world, is preposterous."

    Their primary mission is to go up against NATO.

    Thinking they COULD perform that mission is preposterous.

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    Quote Originally Posted by M21Sniper
    "Idea that Russian Air Force will die out or cease to be able to perform its mission, which never was trecking around the world, is preposterous."

    Their primary mission is to go up against NATO.

    Thinking they COULD perform that mission is preposterous.
    i think their primary mission in this post soviet era is to save their ass in case NATO attacks. So clearly more expenditure on Nukes and Missile defences.Keeping AF etc as just a minimum deterrent so that they can defend their own territories.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Franco Lolan
    Idea that Russian Air Force will die out or cease to be able to perform its mission, which never was trecking around the world, is preposterous.
    I had a breakfast with another guy this morning. He is quite optimistic. In his view Russia will increase spendings on RAF in 2006-2010 many times.... He told that part will go to new planes and significant part to modernization of existing airframes. Total spendings of RAF hardware will be around $1bn annually in 2006-2008 and 3bn in 2009-2015

    He commented that figures provided by earlier guy do not include RESERVE. He stated that there are around 3500 airframes in reserve so RAF can be increased in numbers quite fast if money are spent on required repairs. He stated that engines make up around 30% of the value of Su-30MKI with avionics taking another 20%-30% so upgrading of reserve Su-27 frames would cost around $15-20mln.... Hence a fleet of 1000 fighters might be raised from reserve for a cost of 2bn within a 2 year time.

    However in his oppinion the TRAINING of pilots is a greates problem. He said that to get fair pilot you need 3-5 years of constant training. However in Russia there are 15% of pilots who got adequate training in years before 1993.... however the new pilots who joined after 1993 have been flying just 2-3 times are year. The old bunch is leaving in few years and nobody would be left to pass experience to newcommers. He stated that RAF plans increasing purchases of Yak-130 to solve this problem.....

    So oppinions are quite different here

    ps.

    I AM URGENTLY SEEKING FOR PLAAF SIZE FIGURES. COULD ANYBODY HELP ME HERE? Any public figires on consolidated US AF would be appreciated as well
    Last edited by Garry; 02 Dec 04, at 10:56.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ajaybhutani
    i think their primary mission in this post soviet era is to save their ass in case NATO attacks. So clearly more expenditure on Nukes and Missile defences.Keeping AF etc as just a minimum deterrent so that they can defend their own territories.
    Nuclear weapons are no longer effective weapon. To be effective the country must project creadibly that it is mad enough to use them. In Cold War Times both USSR and US were mad enough to use nukes first even in direct clash even if this was a small accident.

    Now both really prefer not to play with nuke arms, and everybody understand that nukes would be used only as a last resort when you are left with no other choice. Because if Russia or USA strikes with nukes it will be end of the game for everybody. Therefore you want to bluff but not to use it. And counterparts really understand that your threats are not creadible unless you are left with no other choice.

    What would you prefer to lose 10% of your territory or destroy the world and yourself? USSR would cerntainly have prefered the last. A democratic state (without dominant ideology) would prefer the first. Hence in a small conflict US/NATO/Russia will not use its nuclear weapons even if defeated. China/Iran/N.Korea may prefer the last.....

    Hence to protect your interests and territory a democratic state needs capable AF even if it has enough nukes.....

    In fact NATO still rulled by old time guys who see the world in Cold War terms. They keep telling that they fight with terrorism but think of global domination only. Why else they want Georgia/Ukraine to be NATO member? What ever this guys talk NATO is rulled by old times and hence remain mainly ANTI RUSSIA organization. Hence Russia must spend on weapons and look for alliances against NATO...
    Last edited by Garry; 02 Dec 04, at 11:19.

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    1. russians still gotta match the Us nuke power as their first priority
    2. The missile defences will do a good job against even air invasions. So S400 and S500.
    3. Rite now the priority is to let the economy grow till it can handle the expenditure.So its imp to wait.
    4. Russia is surely looking against alliances. thats why they proposed a india china russia axiz a few years ago. and who knows it might be a russian hand between the improving relations between india and china.Since russia cannot face NATO alone so its better to make frnds. But if u cant make strong allys make more enemies for NATO..LOL.. and russians are doing a good job at it. Look at China India Iran all getting loads of tech and low cost weapons.Russians are moving ahead with indians in further military cooperation /development which makes sure that they will not lag behind when they willl be ready to buy as till then indians will buy( and chineese iran malaysia etc).Who knows an alliance might be formed in 10 years time in russia china india etc that can counter NATO. but yes this is only one outcome and many others are possible with even more probabilities.

  15. #15
    A Self Important Senior Contributor troung's Avatar
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    "P.S. You have to remember that what the U.S. accomplishes for 200 billion! russia accomplishes for 20 billion!"

    Actually the RuAF is in very bad shape.

    It is rapidly becoming a flying club without the money to fly.

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