Nuclear weapons used in next 30 years?

[cape_royds]

Do you expect nuclear weapons to be employed somewhere in the world, sometime in the next 30 years, i.e. in the current generation?

I'm not asking if you think it's merely possible. The word expect is in the question to mean that "you would be surprised if they were not used." Note also I'm not allowing any wriggling in the poll--it's a straight yes-or-no.

If you do expect nuclear weapons to be employed in the next thirty years, where would expect them to be used, by whom, and under what sort of circumstances?

I indicate "yes." In 1999, while out on the lake fishing, a friend asked me for a millenium prediction. In reply I told him that I predicted the following:

a) Nuclear weapons would be used sometime in the next thirty years,
b) They would be used by a nuclear-armed country against a people without such arms,
c) It would most likely be done by the USA against a country which they deemed a threat to the global liberal capitalist order,
d) Such a decision would be made because conventional enforcement of the prevailing world order would be too costly, too slow, or too uncertain, and a further contributing factor would be that,
e) Over time the Cold War-era cultural taboo against nuclear weapons would erode, with the passing of the generations who lived through the mid-20th century.

The reasoning behind my prediction was that by the end of the 20th century, a certain kind of global economic and political order was taking shape, that I was sure that this order would be challenged, and that those upholding the global order would be so heavily staked to its preservation that they would in the end abide by no limit in their defense of their world-system.

So there's my answer to the poll. Now for the retaliatory strikes!

[subba]

Cape Sir, the answer is a definitive YES.

The cities where they will detonate will lie in India, Israel or the US.

The acts though with knowledge and connivance of state actors will be carrie out by non-state actors.

No nation state will attack another nation state (with or without nuclear weapons) with nuclear weapons.

If Iran was serious about nuking Israel all it has to do is supply plutoniun/ enriched uranium, lenses and triggers to some Al Qaeda affiliate group who will pass it to some obscure Palestinian or sunni group. Iran will wash it's hands off.

If Pakistan is serious about nuking India it will pass off the same equipment to some obscure again Al Qaeda or Kashmiri group to detonate one or more in a few Indian cities.

When and if so that happens both the state actors (Iran and Pakistan) will give all the correct PC responses and even offer aid. Thus preventing a state to state nuclear retaliation.

However both will say this is due to unresolved problems.

The retaliation in the circumstances cannot be against a nation state unless definitive evidence is uncovered.

Presently official US and Indian response to such an event is rooted in 'ambiguity'.

[T_igger_cs_30]

Subba, I agree with your post it raises but one question for me, if you could give me your feeling.

Do you think Pakistan would ever really consider "nukeing" India?....either as a nation or through subversive methods.

[subba]

Do you think Pakistan would ever really consider "nukeing" India?....either as a nation or through subversive methods.

T igger sir, absolutely. Historically whenever they have had any new weaponry they have attacked India with it. The obsession Pakistan has with Kashmir and India is phenomenal. The reason for propping Taliban and Al Qaeda was exactly that. Even Zia in the 80's was happy at the Idea of training Islamic soldiers against Soviets in Afghanistan. He saw their future. If they could take on the Soviet Army why not the Indian. After the Soviets left Afghanistan the Kashmir insurgency commenced.

The desire among the Pakistani establishment to establish Islamic rule in India is not just a wet dream. It is within it's polity. They know exactly how they go about it. Kashmir is just a step. Musharaff is on record that Kashmir is just one step, but the end lies in driving a tank to the Red fort and offering Namaz at the Jama Masjid in Delhi.

Notice how India and Israel stand as sore thumbs to the Islamic stretch in the Middle East to Pakistan. These two are prime targets. The battle is on much before the US started the WOT sir.

[T_igger_cs_30]

Thanks subba interesting reply for me, I have of course known about 'relations" between the 2 countries historicly, but since the soviet departure from Afghanistan, being busy myself not as upto date as I perhaps should be, however it would appear relations are worsening not improving

[subba]

T igger sir, you're most welcome. However there's a more serious dimension that will unfold. Imagine Haifa or Tel Aviv is nuked, 50,000 dead each city. Whats Israel going to do? It will possibly nuke out Mecca and Medina among it's options.

What will be the response of Muslims in UK or India to say Mecca getting nuked? If cartoons on the Prophet in Denmark can kindle street battles against the establishment in India and other parts of the world, you can well imagine what will happen if Mecca is done to glass in response to a terrorist nuke in Israel.

PS: After 911 the time when Armitage made the blunt 'bomb you to stone age' comment to Musharaff, there were Pakistani officials who made clear that any US attack on Pakistan would be met with nuclear weapons being used on India.

[T_igger_cs_30]

Again thanks all your points are valid and I do think of them, I was interested in your personal opinion to the Pak/Ind question I asked you, again many thanks

[xrough]

Subba, I just wondering if the Indians will not ask themselves where the Al Qaeda will get there nukes?Or I think Mecca is in Saudi Arabia?and Saudi is another ally of US in MIddle East..I will wonder what will be the reaction of US if Israel will nuke Saudi..

[Grim Reaper]

I seriously don't think the U.S. would do anything to Isreal if it nukes saudi, heck they should nuke as much muslim cities as they can, the U.S. shouldn't have a problem once Isreal was nuked first.

[subba]

Subba, I just wondering if the Indians will not ask themselves where the Al Qaeda will get there nukes?Or I think Mecca is in Saudi Arabia?and Saudi is another ally of US in MIddle East..I will wonder what will be the reaction of US if Israel will nuke Saudi..

Xrough sir, you are assuming rationality of response. If Israel is almost destroyed by nukes or India loses 2 million people in hours, how do you think one should naturally respond?

Any country that gets nuked should also rationally base or position it's response as irrational. So Israel, India, UK or France whosoever suffers the depradations of a nuke attack will judge and respond with overwhelming force wherever so they desire.

Why should Israel not hold Islam responsible as a whole and retaliate against it's bastions?

Remember the US response even to 911 was not exactly rooted in rationality.

[xrough]

Xrough sir, you are assuming rationality of response. If Israel is almost destroyed by nukes or India loses 2 million people in hours, how do you think one should naturally respond?

Any country that gets nuked should also rationally base or position it's response as irrational. So Israel, India, UK or France whosoever suffers the depradations of a nuke attack will judge and respond with overwhelming force wherever so they desire.

Why should Israel not hold Islam responsible as a whole and retaliate against it's bastions?

Remember the US response even to 911 was not exactly rooted in rationality.

I think that is not acceptable to nuke all the Muslims in the Middle East especially a friendly state like Saudi if only some country or some group destroyed the cities of Israel..

[Debbie]

I fully expect in the next 30 years something nuclear will take place. My gut feeling though, is that the incident would not be triggered by a real issue but rather an accidental use of nuclear power - meaning - oops, we didn't really mean for THAT to happen and retaliation ensues worldwide. We could speculate and place into conjecture who, why and how, but really it is all subjective until it happens.

[Tronic]

I think that is not acceptable to nuke all the Muslims in the Middle East especially a friendly state like Saudi if only some country or some group destroyed the cities of Israel..

Saudi monarchy is pro-American, below them you have huge anti-American masses...

Subba, I just wondering if the Indians will not ask themselves where the Al Qaeda will get there nukes?

Pakistan, a no brainer... If a nuke really goes off in an Indian city, the retaliatory strikes would cease Pakistan to exist as a country... since it is one of the two countries(other being China) that has nukes pointed at India... and China at present does not really have a major desire to fight a nuclear war with India...

Or I think Mecca is in Saudi Arabia?and Saudi is another ally of US in MIddle East..I will wonder what will be the reaction of US if Israel will nuke Saudi..

Saudis have oil... and the Americans cannot allow the tap to be shut... I'm guessing American response will not be in favour of Israel...

[zraver]

I expect they will be used, but by the US to take out Iranian assets threatening the Strait of Hormuz. Both to take out the bulk of the anti-shipping weapons and send a very clear message to the clerics that its time to stop acting like idiots and prodding the giant who also happens to have the bigest F'ing stick any would be despotic state has ever been threatened with a beat down by.

[Zeng]

Unbelievable, so many people expect that nuclear weapons will be employed within 30 years. Are the human beings insane? We are really living in a dangerous world