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  • Top U.S. Official Warns West of Russian Policy

    Top U.S. Official Warns West of Russian Policy


    Created: 12.01.2007 11:08 MSK (GMT +3), Updated: 15:50 MSK

    MosNews

    U.S. National Intelligence Director John Negroponte warned Thursday that Russia is becoming a regional energy superpower and increasingly is pursuing foreign policy goals that threaten U.S. and Western interests, the Associated press reports.

    High energy prices have allowed Russia to increase its assertiveness in foreign affairs, said Negroponte in his annual global review.

    A flush economy and perceived policy successes at home and abroad have bolstered Russian confidence, enabled increased defense spending and emboldened the Kremlin to pursue foreign policy goals that are not always consistent with those of Western institutions,” Negroponte told the Senate Intelligence Committee in written testimony.

    Rivalry with Russia, he said, will complicate cooperation on important foreign policy goals including counterterrorism, nonproliferation and democracy promotion in the Middle East.

    As Russia approaches a March 2008 presidential election, the government has been undermining its credibility as a partner with the West by stifling political opposition, Negroponte said.

    Alexander Litvinenko, a Kremlin critic who lived in exile in London, died in a London hospital on November 23 after receiving a lethal dose of polonium-210. In a deathbed statement, he accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of ordering his murder, which the Kremlin has denied.

    Russia’s foreign policy tactics also are producing friction with the West.

    Negroponte said Russia is trying to use economic power stemming from its exports of the country’s immense energy resources to influence the internal politics of neighbors, including countries such as Georgia and Ukraine, former Soviet republics that have recently moved toward greater democracy.

    “Russia is attempting to exploit the leverage that high energy prices has afforded it, increasingly using strong-arm tactics against neighboring countries,” he said.

    He warned more broadly that access to energy is emerging as a source of greater vulnerability for the West as producers increase their economic power and consumers compete more aggressively for resources.

    We have entered a new era in which security has become an increasing priority not only for the U.S. and the West, but also rapidly developing economies like China and India that are becoming major energy consumers,” he said.

    In separate prepared testimony, the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, Michael Maples, said “Russian entities” sell technologies useful for weapons of mass destruction and missile programs abroad.
    http://www.mosnews.com/news/2007/01/...anpolicy.shtml
    Europe, especially Germany, depends heavily on Russian oil and gas.

    Russia has had problems with most countries through which the oil is routed, including its ally, Belarus!

    With the advent of globalisation and rapid industrialisation in countries that were lagging behind, especially in the third world, the aspirations of the people have gone up with the economic recovery. This will spur these nations to grow further and hence requirement of oil and gas will increase many fold. Thus, oil and gas will become an important input in the geostrategic paradigm.

    Russia has adequate oil and gas and so it will not be averse to using it as a political weapon. As it is, it has once again regained its influence on the Central Asian Republics which was waning. Likewise it has made a somewhat of 'comeback' in Georgia and Ukraine and has nudged uncomfortably the growing US influence in the erstwhile USSR territories.

    The CAR and Middle East will play an important role in Russia contesting the US. Already, there are reports that Russia is in Syria with a naval base!

    Unless the US reconsiders her options in the Middle East and establishes herself in a firm way, things can go awry for the US interests.

    The Iraqi govt's cozying up with Syria (Talibani is visiting Syria) and it upsetting US plans by working in a counterproductive manner does not auger well.

    Therefore, what should be the US policy to contain Russia?

    In this connection this link is also pertinent:

    http://intelligence.senate.gov/heari...hearingId=2467


    "Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination."

    I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to.

    HAKUNA MATATA

  • #2
    Originally posted by Ray View Post
    Europe, especially Germany, depends heavily on Russian oil and gas.
    Last year when Russia cut off supply to Europe, it raised eyebrows. Russia spent billions repairing the damage. Now they do it again!

    Putin is cutting off his nose to spite his face. Once again Europe is questioning Russia's reliability as an energy supplier. Overtures to the Germans have been rebuffed, There are talks with Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan for new supply routed to Europe that are not dependent on Moscow's whims.

    And Europe is looking at other alternatives to the pipelines as well.

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16609277/site/newsweek/
    Originally posted by Ray View Post
    Russia has had problems with most countries through which the oil is routed, including its ally, Belarus!
    Or they have problems with Russia, depending on which way you look at it...

    Of course it's nice if you're Russia and can buy gas for $100/tcm and sell it for $230, but the supplier might not think it's such a great deal...
    Originally posted by Ray View Post
    Already, there are reports that Russia is in Syria with a naval base!
    Lol. A mooring bouy does not a naval base make...
    Last edited by highsea; 15 Jan 07,, 09:59.
    "We will go through our federal budget – page by page, line by line – eliminating those programs we don’t need, and insisting that those we do operate in a sensible cost-effective way." -President Barack Obama 11/25/2008

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Ray View Post
      Europe, especially Germany, depends heavily on Russian oil and gas.

      <<<SNIP!>>>


      Therefore, what should be the US policy to contain Russia?
      Sir,

      Contrary to Mr. Negroponte's revelations, this is actually a very old story and there has been plenty of time to think about it.

      New containment of Russia is going to have to take into account the following factors:

      1. Any remotely realistic policy is going to have to rely heavily on robust Iranian gas exports.

      2. Furthermore, an expanded Iranian role in the region is probably in the cards as well.

      3. Increasing the level of instability in the Middle East and Central Asia serves Russian interests and hence the U.S. should avoid doing so whenever possible.

      I have been arguing for a thaw with the Iranians for quite some time and Bluesman and I go round and round on it. However, regardless of how the U.S. handles Iran, it is a fact that the Chinese and the Russians advance their agendas on the back of poor or non existent Washington-Tehran communications. This being the case, we should figure out some way to change this part of the equation.

      For the U.S. to effectively contain Russia and other strategic competitors while simultaneously advancing its own interests and that of its European and Asian allies, something has to budge viz U.S. Iranian relations. Whether this involves throwing them the keys to the store or blasting them from the face of the map and trying something new with that piece of real estate is open for discussion but one thing is for certain: all roads lead to Tehran.

      Regardless of how one feels about the Iranians, we will probably find them more maleable and acquiescent than Moscow or Beijing so we better figure something out because the clock is ticking.

      Regards,

      William
      Pharoh was pimp but now he is dead. What are you going to do today?

      Comment


      • #4
        China plays key role in Russia's oil strategy: oil tycoon
        www.chinaview.cn 2006-03-23 00:31:15

        BEIJING, March 22 (Xinhua) -- China is a long-term strategic partner for Russia's energy sector and plays an important role in Russia's Asian oil strategy, Russian oil tycoon Sergei Bogdanchikov said here Wednesday.

        In an interview with Xinhua, the president of the Russian oil company Rosneft said by the end of the year, Russia and China willset up a joint venture in each country that will engage in the exploration, production and processing of crude oil and oil products in Russia, and the sale of such products in China and other countries.

        Asian and Pacific countries, particularly China, could be the major markets for oil from Russia's Siberia and Far East regions, he said, adding that Rosneft will set up an Asian office in Beijing.

        Rosneft has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the China Development Bank which provide financing for increased oil exports from Russia to China. Rosneft and the bank will also jointly finance the development of two oil and gas fields.

        Bogdanchikov said Rosneft plans to increase its export of crudeoil and oil products to China from 7.1 million tons in 2005 to 12.7 million tons this year. Enditem
        Editor: Wang Nan
        http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/20...nt_4333700.htm
        The oil requirement of China in the near future would be immense. The NIC Report 2020 indicates so and so will the requirement be for India.

        The Caspian Afghanistan Pakistan pipeline as visualised byUNOCAL was one of the factors that spurred the Afghanistan issue, apart from the AQ. Likewise, of note was the appointment of Dr. Zalmay Khalilzad, an UNOCAL official as the US Ambassador to Afghanistan, before he was shifted to Iraq. It maybe recalled that Karzai too was an UNOICAL official.Too coincidental to be coincidental!

        The US pressure to scuttle the Iran Pakistan India pipeline is not without its not so evident implications. India has practically walked off the project because of US pressure.

        Therefore, Oil is indeed an important factor in the geostrategic matrix.

        One of the factor for the invasion of Iraq, not the only one, was the oilfields of Iraq. This was to ensure the breaking of the OPEC oil cartel, which was playing havoc with US economy. If Iraq was put out of the loop, the OPEC clout would diminish. Iraq has the second largest oilfield in the world and has an abundance of sweet oil.

        China, Russia and Iran are allies in this oil game. China imports abundance of Iran oil and she is bigtime in oil exploration in various parts.

        Germany imports a fifth of its oil and 35 percent of its natural gas from Russia. Germany is forging a closer link with Russian oil via a new North European pipeline that is being jointly built under the Baltic Sea.

        The North European pipeline would allow Russia to bypass countries like Belarus and Ukraine and send gas directly to Central and Western Europe. It is of interest to note that transit countries like Poland and the Baltic states say the pipeline would make them more vulnerable, since they would lose out on transit fees and would not be served by the new project, meaning it could cut them off from Russian supplies. That is one of the issues of import!

        The European nations are diversifying but are not united in purpose.

        The point to note is that the market for oil is not Europe. It is ASIA! And Asia is not swayed by western strategic interests and yet the oil routes and the strategic chokepoints are in abundance in Asia, which makes the geostrategic and geopolitical interests an interesting issue.

        Russia has always had a finger in the Asian pie.

        And the geostrategic centre of gravity rests in Asia!

        Negroponte should not be taken lightly.
        Last edited by Ray; 15 Jan 07,, 15:17.


        "Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination."

        I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to.

        HAKUNA MATATA

        Comment


        • #5
          Last year when Russia cut off supply to Europe, it raised eyebrows. Russia spent billions repairing the damage. Now they do it again!
          To Ukraine. Russia still send gas trough Ukraine to other european customers, but Ukraine stole the gas. So your statement is incorrect. And how did Russia spent billions repairing the damage? Where, when and how can it be shown that the money was spent because the incident. Also do you think that Russia should just sell gas to these countrys by lesser price because they are unwilling to pay what others pay?

          Comment


          • #6
            Highseas,

            The third world finds the WTO Agreements highly loaded in favour of the western nations and unfair and yet we have to acquiesce.

            Likewise, in the same manner, Russia can play havoc with their oil.

            Therefore, I would like to think that it would be unfair to go hammer and tongs in condemning Russia for behaving like the West with the West!!


            "Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination."

            I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to.

            HAKUNA MATATA

            Comment


            • #7
              The moves Russia has been making lately, in the energy sector, have been real troubling to me. They are no doubt emerging, but for the better, I'm real skeptical about it.....there is a definite hint of communism in their decision-making.
              Last edited by Julie; 15 Jan 07,, 16:40.

              Comment


              • #8
                Julie,

                It is not really Communism.

                It is a desperate attempt to regain its status as a global power - a pedestal it has lost!

                Russia is a toothless Tiger which wants to regrow its teeth!


                "Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination."

                I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to.

                HAKUNA MATATA

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Proton View Post
                  To Ukraine. Russia still send gas trough Ukraine to other european customers, but Ukraine stole the gas.
                  That was Putin's claim. anyway. Nevertheless, that pipeline feeds Europe, so when Putin cut off Ukraine, he also cut off European customers.
                  Originally posted by Proton View Post
                  And how did Russia spent billions repairing the damage? Where, when and how can it be shown that the money was spent because the incident. Also do you think that Russia should just sell gas to these countrys by lesser price because they are unwilling to pay what others pay?
                  Your answers are in the link I posted.
                  Last edited by highsea; 15 Jan 07,, 17:04.
                  "We will go through our federal budget – page by page, line by line – eliminating those programs we don’t need, and insisting that those we do operate in a sensible cost-effective way." -President Barack Obama 11/25/2008

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by highsea View Post
                    That was Putin's claim. anyway. Nevertheless, that pipeline feeds Europe, so when Putin cut off Ukraine, he also cut off European customers.
                    Double whammy for Putin and he could act innocent too!

                    Europe is dependent on the US for its security and yet they get 'pragmatic' when their economy is involved.

                    Russia is using this dichotomy to the hilt, much to the delight of her 'friends' in the Middle East!

                    The Syrian 'mooring buoy' can become as equal a problem as the Gwadar port in resurgent Balochistan of Pakistan being 'developed' by China!

                    Time to realise the game plan and prepare rather than shrugging it off as inconsequential!
                    Last edited by Ray; 15 Jan 07,, 17:37.


                    "Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination."

                    I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to.

                    HAKUNA MATATA

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Ray View Post
                      Highseas,

                      The third world finds the WTO Agreements highly loaded in favour of the western nations and unfair and yet we have to acquiesce.

                      Likewise, in the same manner, Russia can play havoc with their oil.

                      Therefore, I would like to think that it would be unfair to go hammer and tongs in condemning Russia for behaving like the West with the West!!
                      I'm not sure the third world's opinion of the WTO is relevant to the question of Russian gas supplies, lol.

                      Nevertheless, I have learned through many years of being in business that it's not wise to alienate your customers. Europe's response seems to indicate that Putin has done just that. The recently unveiled energy initiative, Merkel's comments, and the drive to present a unified European front as consumers is not something Russia welcomes.

                      Russia is certainly enjoying a windfall today, but lack of investment in infrastructure will have long term detrimental effects. Russia's own resources are vast, but production is on the decline, and there is virtually no investment in development of new fields. Fact is today, without imports, Gazprom would be a minor player.

                      So the West watches with interest, and makes plans for alternative forms of energy, other sources, etc...
                      "We will go through our federal budget – page by page, line by line – eliminating those programs we don’t need, and insisting that those we do operate in a sensible cost-effective way." -President Barack Obama 11/25/2008

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Ray View Post
                        ...The Syrian 'mooring buoy' can become as equal a problem as the Gwadar port in resurgent Balochistan of Pakistan being 'developed' by China!

                        Time to realise the game plan and prepare rather than shrugging it off as inconsequential!
                        It is inconsequential as long as there is no Navy to occupy the "port"! When Russia actually has ships to deploy, then I might think otherwise. As I commented in the other thread, maybe in 20 years we will feel threatened by Russian Naval presence in the Med, but today it would be a little "pollyanna-ish" to get all excited about it.

                        Gwadar actually has some investment going on- so far the Syrian plan is just speculation.
                        "We will go through our federal budget – page by page, line by line – eliminating those programs we don’t need, and insisting that those we do operate in a sensible cost-effective way." -President Barack Obama 11/25/2008

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by highsea View Post
                          I'm not sure the third world's opinion of the WTO is relevant to the question of Russian gas supplies, lol.

                          Nevertheless, I have learned through many years of being in business that it's not wise to alienate your customers. Europe's response seems to indicate that Putin has done just that. The recently unveiled energy initiative, Merkel's comments, and the drive to present a unified European front as consumers is not something Russia welcomes.

                          Russia is certainly enjoying a windfall today, but lack of investment in infrastructure will have long term detrimental effects. Russia's own resources are vast, but production is on the decline, and there is virtually no investment in development of new fields. Fact is today, without imports, Gazprom would be a minor player.

                          So the West watches with interest, and makes plans for alternative forms of energy, other sources, etc...
                          Aha, so the third world opinion is not material! I really like that. Business 'unethics' applicable to the third world is fine so long it is not applicable to the West! I wonder if that is logical!

                          Good that you are in the business world and so you will understand supply and demand. Oil is a suppliers market and not the other way around! So, if Russia loses European customers, there is always the Asian oil hungry market! Check NIC 2020. And if oil does not go to Europe, Europe will shrivel up! Again read NIC 2020 for details.

                          In this context, Russia's wooing of the Caspian and ex USSR countries in the South is material. If they gang up along with Iran, the economy of the West will be up a gum tree! They can always export to Asia and even so it will not feed the demand!

                          Russia and China are great fans of Iran!

                          Therefore, it is time to smell the coffee!


                          "Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination."

                          I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to.

                          HAKUNA MATATA

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Ray View Post
                            Aha, so the third world opinion is not material! I really like that. Business 'unethics' applicable to the third world is fine so long it is not applicable to the West! I wonder if that is logical!
                            Please do not put words into my mouth, sir. If you do not understand my comment, I am happy to elaborate.

                            If you indeed do feel that the WTO issues are related to Putin's pipeline diplomacy, I would be interested in your rationale.
                            "We will go through our federal budget – page by page, line by line – eliminating those programs we don’t need, and insisting that those we do operate in a sensible cost-effective way." -President Barack Obama 11/25/2008

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              In so far as a country can do exactly what it wants to further its self interest.


                              "Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination."

                              I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to.

                              HAKUNA MATATA

                              Comment

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