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Could Indonesia invade Australia and win???

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  • #31
    Indonesia couldn't support a war against anyone they don't have a land border with. The territorial command is important not only politically but to enable to strategic reserve to conduct operations and use the infrastructure.

    Indonesian units are more suited to light infantry work then an invasion of the giant wasteland know as Australia. Their heaviest tanks are AMX-13s. Their force is suited for internal security not power projection outside of their borders. Kostrad while formed for foreign work is not tasked anymore with that and acts more like the Strategic Reserve of the French Army during Algeria (mobile units to support territorial forces) and not a Rapid Reaction Force like the USA and France (today) have.

    Their new Flankers are for local patrolling (Indonesia is huge) and to replace their F-5E/Fs and A-4s which have suffered under sanctions. Their new ships are to replace old ones. New army equipment is to increase tactically mobility and improve their performance in domestic COIN. Along with some SAMs and other defensive weapons for local defense.

    They ain't looking to invade anyone and they ain't equipped to conquer anyone other than PNG and Timor.

    Their invasion of Timor was out of a fear of Communism and the fact their proxy forces lost, they went like headless chickens trying to figure out what to do with Timor before invading.
    To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

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    • #32
      Originally posted by Jaysetheace View Post
      snip...the idea is preposterous...snip
      Don't mean to be condescending, but pay close attention to posters in this forum with blue names. They are military men. They know a thing or two about warfare beyond the numbers of tanks and soldiers at a parade.

      They have analyzed this scenario and believe it is not possible. It is more likely that the Mexican army invade the US than to have Indonesian forces launch an amphibious assault on Australia.

      You can sleep soundly at night. The most you have to worry is the liberals in Australia further erode individual rights for the good of the community.

      Welcome to this board. You can learn a lot about warfare reading what the pros have to say.
      "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

      Comment


      • #33
        How quickly can the US organise retaliatory airstrikes on Indonesian political and military infrastructure in their heartland? A few days? Diego Garcia and Guam are not too far away.

        Thoroughly ridiculous.
        HD Ready?

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        • #34
          Australia's political and ecnomical centres are on the east coast. To attack the east coast, Indonesia needs to either significantly increase her naval power or walk a long way in land. Either way, OZ would be happily waiting on their beach and asking "Are they there yet?"

          Or Indonesia could attack the western part of Australia, that would be technically more feasible topic for discussion. But before we get into military details, politically, I seriously think China would be the first one to tell Indonesia to stop, if Australia has not said any thing yet.

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          • #35
            Now lets look at the question again '' Could Indonesia invade Australia and win???'' Upon reasonable thought I have to say YES. It COULD. If the democratic party in it's entirety moved to Australia.

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            • #36
              Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm indeed

              I work on the theory that someone should be treated as a serious poster unless proven otherwise. So, as an Australian with a little knowledge of matters military, political etc., I’ll have a go at replying to this. I’ve posed a series of questions that I feel your thesis needs to address. I would appreciate some sensible answers.

              [QUOTE]
              Originally posted by Jaysetheace View Post
              Although most people think the idea is preposterous, an Indonesian invasion of Australia is quite possible.
              You’ll need to do a lot of convincing to get this one up.

              Australia has never really seen war on its own soil (apart from Darwin and a couple of Japanese subs in Sydney Harbour in WW2) and the citizens are very complacent towards homeland security.
              Actually, we have seen war on our soil, though we prefer to call it ‘settlement’. No big battles in the European tradition, but a lot of skirmishing & fighting, including a prolonged siege of Bathurst.

              As for Australian complacency, I guess that depends on what you deem ‘prepared’. I would have thought that the Haneef case & recent revelations about ASIO suggest a tendency toward paranoia.


              The Australian gun laws have rendered the city dwellers unprotected and there are virtually no bomb shelters.
              As someone who migrated from the ‘safety’ of rural Australia to being ‘unprotected’ in a big city, I feel a damned sight safer here. We have well armed police & an Army to deal with civil disturbance & invasion.

              Oh, who is going to bomb us & how?

              Most Australian houses would fall apart with a few blasts from an AK47 and the occupants would surrender in a second.
              Really? I didn’t realize that a few 7.62 or 5.45 caliber rounds could demolish a 30 square brick veneer house. They might get in. Might even go through. But demolish?

              And as for surrendering in a second, that is an insult pure and simple. Either you don’t know many Australians or you move in extremely limited & self-reinforcing circles.

              With the majority of Australians, there is a firm belief that "We're too isolated and the U.S. will support us".
              On point one they would be dead right. Have a quick look at the logistics of amphibious invasions & then look at the nearest base from which to launch one.

              On point two the US would probably provide political/diplomatic & logistic support. That would be plenty.

              It would take several weeks for the U.S. and Nato to organise troops to Australia, and if the Indonesian Military were already here and had taken over Australia's military resources (which is highly feesable), there would be a war of massive proportions.
              Not sure what NATO is doing here, but the more the merrier. So it takes a couple of weeks, so what? Unless Indonesia has magically taken ALL our military resources and landed a force capable of taking & holding every major Australian city (8 by my count) then it hardly matters.

              "But wouldn't Indonesia be leaving their own country unprotected?", I hear you ask... No, because there are approximately 50 million Indonesian citizens with illegal guns and there would be no point trying to fight them on home soil... remember Vietnam? Nuking them would be the only viable option, and nobody wants to do that.
              A classic ‘straw man’ question. Who is asking this? Who is suggesting that we or anyone else will be invading Indonesia? Sounds to me like an attempt to float some bogus stats about private access to firearms in Indonesia. What proportion of these arms are in the hands of pro-govt. militias. What proportion are in the hands of various separatist movements?

              On Vietnam, pretty much all the guns used against the French, Americans & RVN were supplied by a government and/or political organisation. They weren’t privately owned, legally or otherwise. Indeed, many of the guns distributed to private citizens & village militias in the Sth ended up in Communist hands. A well armed populace didn’t much help the RVN.

              Why is it that you assume Vietnamese & Indonesians will fight more fiercely for their homeland than Australians? There are plenty of guns & other weapons in Australia that people could obtain access to in the event of your scenario coming to fruition.

              Who is going to threaten to nuke Indonesia on our behalf?

              I know it seems ridiculous, but my friends and I are members of a club who analyze strategies and the potential for one country to take over another. We do this with ALL factors in mind, including economic, population, political, and resource motivations, as well as good old border expansion.The Indonesia versus Australia debate was one we worked on for months.
              In the end, we found that Australia would easily fall to a full-scale invasion by Indonesia in less than 72 hours!
              Sounds like a cool club! What is its name? Where do you folk meet? Do you have details on the net? How does a proud Aussie like me join up?

              If you could imagine a few dozen container ships, full of military equipment and men, unloading in the middle of the night into every capital city's harbour, whilst strategically placed and timed bombs are distracting the depleted Australian forces and law enforcement throughout these cities (remember that many Allied soldiers, Navy and Air Force are on active duty in Iraq, East Timor, Africa and Afghanistan and there are already over 300,000 Indonesians residing in Australia), plus the limited Allied Air Forces could be pushed into a conflict with the Indonesian Air Force in the Northern Territory (far, far away from the east coast cities), and with little to NO resistance from the general population, the invasion could be achieved almost OVERNIGHT!
              Wow! Where to begin with this lot.

              How is all this going to get planned without even a hint getting out to ASIS or ASIO?

              Who is going to plant all the bombs? We must be talking literally hundreds of bombs planted by hundreds, perhaps thousands of people nationwide.

              How many ships would need to be sent to each port, how big would they be & what would they carry?

              With ships backed up at many Australian ports due to infrastructure limitations, how is it going to be possible to co-ordinate this many ships all arriving on the same night without it looking suspicious?

              Last time I counted not much more than 10-15% of our Army was overseas. That doesn’t count thousands of reservists & soldiers in training. Our entire combat airforce is at home, along with virtually all our helicopters.

              Given that the ALP is committed to returning many of these troops to Australia, does this mean that a Labor government will make Australia more secure?

              Where does the 300,000 figure come from? How many of them were political refugees from just the sort of government likely to invade a neighbour? How many are refugees from Timor, Irian Jaya, Aceh etc. who would be more likely to fight Indonesian troops than help them? If guns are more readily available in Australia isn’t it likely that this ‘5th column’ will be able to better arm itself?

              Last time I checked the Indonesian Airforce had about a dozen poorly maintained F-16s and an even smaller number of SU-27s & SU-30s. I’m not bothering to count their 70s vintage fighters, which would struggle to fight a modern air war at home. They have limited modern weaponry & can only fight over Australia with midair refuelling.

              We have something like 75 FA-18s & 20-odd well maintained F-111s, all operating from home bases. We have modern weaponry & pilots as good as any in the world. We have AWACS & an advance ground-based radar system.

              How exactly is Indonesia going to mount any sort of air campaign against the NT or any other part of Australia?

              Do you have any example of the sort of operation you are talking about having been attempted or successfully carried out?


              A well executed plan of attack, matched with 200,000 military personnel, a couple of hundred tanks, and a few dozen fighters and bombers, could do the job for Indonesia...
              How are the 200,000 going to get here?

              How are their tanks going to get here?

              How are the fighters & bombers going to maintain combat here?

              How are any of these going to stay in supply? Where are their ammunition & spare parts going to come from? How are they getting food? If the answer is forage (in the larger cities) then what percentage of strength for each unit will be occupied in foraging each day?

              What is going to happen when their men or tanks meet our Leo1 or M1A1 tanks?

              Imagine if they were backed by China or Russia...
              This scenario is in fantasy land already, lets not wander further off the dial.

              The reality is, though, is that it's all speculation and games.
              Indonesia may win in the end, but it relies SOLELY on the fact that guns have been banned in Australia for everybody except farmers, hunters and sportshooters. If Australian citizens had compulsory military service or allowed citizens to own guns, Indonesia wouldn't stand a chance.
              Then again, Australia doesn't have either, do they?
              And once again the obsession with guns. A more suspicious fella might conclude that this whole strange scenario with its dubious statistics, bending of the truth & excursions into fantasy was all just an excuse to argue for the ‘good old days’ of lax gun laws. Lucky I’m not a suspicious fella.

              Australia has a number of large, well trained & well armed police forces. Australia has a number of intelligence services. Australia has a modern, well trained & well equipped military. You are putting forth the notion that the only thing standing between us & an Indonesian invasion is a few million privately owned guns. Thus far you have failed to support your contention with facts. I look forward to more detail.
              sigpic

              Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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              • #37
                Bigfella Reply

                That was hardly fair.

                Further, you've the patience of Job to painstakingly lay this sock-puppet's ill-conceived fantasy to it's very deserving demise. Hopefully where it will forever remain.

                Bravo.
                "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
                "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

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                • #38
                  Unfortunately we probably won't hear peep out of that single-digit IQ retard again. Troll tactics.
                  HD Ready?

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                  • #39
                    Come on, HistoricalDavid. We were all young, with heads full of mush, at one time. I see this as another outstanding educational opportunity!

                    With that being said...what a club that must be that Jaysetheace belongs to!

                    I'm picturing a group of young, teenage boys standing around a map of the world, all imagining what it would be like to play the game "Risk" in real-life.

                    P.S. One learns FAR more by reading than typing. Please try it some time.

                    P.P.S. I've worked with members of the Australian military, & once even helped train them on their own soil. I find them to be trained comparable to our own American military forces. The differences were in the equipment that they used. & as I've not had the opportunity to do the same with the Indonesian military, I therefore feel unqualified to make any judgements as to how they would stand up. But I seriously doubt that the Aussies would allow their own country to fall within a mere three days! They strike me, as do others from other countries I've had the pleasure to visit, as not the type to "go quietly go into that good night." If nothing else, please look at the problems my own military faces in trying to qwell resistance in larger cities--the one in our situation being named "Baghdad." It's simply NOT as simple as you & your club members have deluded yourselves into thinking it would be.

                    Just a suggestion: I was certainly being sarcastic, but not facetious, in my recommendation that you read more to learn more. Read through some of the similar threads in this forum, & you're sure to come away with a far better understanding of this topic of "A invades B"--to quote one more knowledgeable of it than I. ;)

                    Addendum: To those who celebrate Thanksgiving, I wish you a safe & happy one. & to those that don't, have a great day anyway. I mean it!
                    Last edited by Skull6; 22 Nov 07,, 01:54.
                    If you know the enemy and yourself you need not fear the results of a hundred battles. - Sun Tzu

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                      Let me get this straight. The most powerful military on earth with a standby force of 20,000 will take weeks to mobilize while a home guard who couldn't even find a road can somehow board ships in the middle of the night and make it through the day without being detected in Australian waters.

                      That must be really some good stuff you're smoking.
                      I don't smoke and hardly ever drink.
                      Think about it...
                      It took the United States 4 weeks after 9/11 before they landed in Afghanistan (October 7, actually)... and that was after they'd been attacked on HOME soil. It would have to take longer to get the US troops to Australia, or there'd be an uproar by the American people about the length of time it took to attack the Taliban in 2001.
                      Also, you might want to actually study the subject before you poke fun.
                      Every year, over 13,000 illegal fishing boats enter Australian waters, and only about 400 get captured. If it's THAT easy for slow moving fishing boats to get into Australian waters, imagine how easy Indonesia's 100+++ strong Navy could get through, backed up by their Naval aircraft taking out any immediate threats (including an Australian Air Force attack)... better yet, they could fill 13,000 fishing boats with military... most of them would get through.
                      Remember, it's all hypothetical and there has to be a political agenda or resource gain. There is no question that Indonesia has a greedy and corrupt military regime running it. Indonesia is also VERY cramped (234 million people in a land area the size of Victoria, Australia) and could do with a bit of expansion. Invading Australia could expand their borders, show off their firepower to the rest of the world (believe me, there's a lot of it!) and give them almost unlimited resources like coal, gold, uranium, natural gas and arable land. Their 300,000 strong army would have a field day in the take-over... Australia being a predominantly Christian society (who is almost completely unarmed, especially in the cities), and Indonesia being the largest Muslim population in the world with mandatory military training for all males... I'm pretty sure there'd be no holding back on the genocide.
                      If they took over swiftly, the battle would be fierce and on going when the Allied forces arrive to pick up the pieces.
                      Eventually, the US and Nato forces would win, but not before a hell of a lot of lives are lost. But I can almost guarantee that the entire Northern Territory would be a major victim to the attack (the largest Uranium deposit in the world just happens to be there, but the Australian government gave the Aboriginal tribes custody of this land before it was discovered...). If the entire Aboriginal population of these areas are killed, and Australia is "rescued" by the US, guess who gets a big fat reward with no opposition?
                      You have to look at the question asked... "Could Indonesia invade Australia and win?"
                      The answer is "YES"... politically, strategically, and absolutely.
                      Just remember, several allied countries NEED the uranium... they just also need an excuse to get it. Nobody can get it while the Aborigines own the land, and nobody can bargain it out of them. Politically, it wouldn't look good for anybody to just take it.
                      An Indonesian invasion would be just the ticket.

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Originally posted by Jaysetheace View Post
                        I don't smoke and hardly ever drink.
                        Think about it...
                        Well, whatever you're taking must be good.

                        Originally posted by Jaysetheace View Post
                        It took the United States 4 weeks after 9/11 before they landed in Afghanistan (October 7, actually)... and that was after they'd been attacked on HOME soil. It would have to take longer to get the US troops to Australia, or there'd be an uproar by the American people about the length of time it took to attack the Taliban in 2001.
                        Why would it take longer to get US troops to Australia? Within 72 hours, an entire airborne division could land in Australia and without having to fight their way in. Afghanistan was a combat operation with no friendly air strip. You need to think alot more.

                        Originally posted by Jaysetheace View Post
                        Also, you might want to actually study the subject before you poke fun.
                        The rest of your post is pure garbage. I'll shoot it down right now. Water. Where are you going to get the water.

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Originally posted by Jaysetheace View Post
                          Indonesia is also VERY cramped (234 million people in a land area the size of Victoria, Australia) and could do with a bit of expansion. Invading Australia could expand their borders, show off their firepower to the rest of the world (believe me, there's a lot of it!) and give them almost unlimited resources like coal, gold, uranium, natural gas and arable land. Their 300,000 strong army would have a field day in the take-over... Australia being a predominantly Christian society (who is almost completely unarmed, especially in the cities), and Indonesia being the largest Muslim population in the world with mandatory military training for all males... I'm pretty sure there'd be no holding back on the genocide.
                          If they took over swiftly, the battle would be fierce and on going when the Allied forces arrive to pick up the pieces.
                          Hey! I really didn't want to add credibility to ur THIS discussion by responding...but Sorry...couldn't control my temptation either. You DON'T seem to have any idea of combat and military operations. First answer this....What's the diff between a Stealth and a normal craft? Why do you believe that such a proportionately big amphibious naval movement will go undetected in face of existing(technologically sound) Australian early warning systems...both airborne as well as ground based? WHY? Do you know why RAAF is still willing to continue their fleet of F-111s inspite of planning to procure Super Hornets? Any idea of the F111s long range capabilities to engage the enemy over blue waters? They will not be sitting idle and watch Indonesia flex its lax muscle over hundreds of nautical miles.
                          sigpicAnd on the sixth day, God created the Field Artillery...

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                          • #43
                            Jaysetheace

                            before you poke fun.
                            It's cruel I know but you make it so easy.

                            Every year, over 13,000 illegal fishing boats enter Australian waters, and only about 400 get captured. If it's THAT easy for slow moving fishing boats to get into Australian waters,
                            I don't know where you got these figures from but allowing for a moment that they are correct, entering into our waters is a very different thing to actually landing which very few have managed unless they have been towed or escorted to port.

                            imagine how easy Indonesia's 100+++ strong Navy could get through, backed up by their Naval aircraft taking out any immediate threats (including an Australian Air Force attack).
                            The whole world would know about it before they ever left their home port.
                            Do you possibly think we would be sitting on our backsides just waiting for them to arrive? Where do you think our subs might be?

                            Like shooting ducks in a barrel.

                            .. better yet, they could fill 13,000 fishing boats with military... most of them would get through.
                            Most of them would sink on their own before they got here. Have you ever seen any of them. :))
                            Each might carry half a dozen men providing they left all their equipment and stores at home.

                            Lots of ducks in lots of barrels. :))

                            Remember, it's all hypothetical
                            As in deluded waffle.

                            Invading Australia could expand their borders, show off their firepower to the rest of the world (believe me, there's a lot of it!)
                            .
                            Their 300,000 strong army would have a field day in the take-over...
                            More deluded waffle!!

                            Australia (who is almost completely unarmed, especially in the cities),
                            Don't bet on it son!

                            But I can almost guarantee the Northern Territory would be a major victim to the attack
                            Do you know where our air and naval bases are concentrated?
                            Know what NORFORCE is???

                            The Crocs are going to be well fed.

                            (the largest Uranium deposit in the world just happens to be there,
                            Nope, it is located in the Gawler Craton which happens to be in South Australia (Roxby Downs - Prominent Hill), 2,000+ kms to the south.
                            What's the big deal with uranium anyway, it's one of the most common minerals in the world and there would be much easier ways to get it presuming of course they had some use for it.
                            Please don't say "bombs"

                            but the Australian government gave the Aboriginal tribes custody of this land before it was discovered...)
                            Ranger has been mined before and is shut down...we don't need it.

                            . If the entire Aboriginal population of these areas are killed, and Australia is "rescued" by the US, guess who gets a big fat reward with no opposition?
                            You have to look at the question asked... "Could Indonesia invade Australia and win?"
                            The answer is "YES"... politically, strategically, and absolutely.
                            You may not smoke or drink but you are certainly imbibing in something illegal!!

                            Just remember, several allied countries NEED the uranium
                            ...

                            Which allies are you talking about?
                            Islamic ones per chance?

                            they just also need an excuse to get it. Nobody can get it while the Aborigines own the land, and nobody can bargain it out of them. Politically, it wouldn't look good for anybody to just take it.
                            Incoherent waffle!!

                            An Indonesian invasion would be just the ticket.
                            For a wet dreamer! :))

                            This subject has been dealt with by Troung and Bigfella so I would suggest you re-read their posts or get someone else to read them and explain it to you in a language you can comprehend.

                            In the comparitively short time I have been a member of the WAB I have noticed a sameness about trolls.
                            None of them give any details in their profiles.
                            So, just for our enlightenment...where are you from, what do you do and how old are you?

                            Credibility is a worthwhile attribute to gain. :)

                            Cheers.

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Yeah, unless he answers troung and Bigfella sensibly he shouldn't be replied to any longer.
                              HD Ready?

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                I think we need to switch the discussion to whether hippies could successfully invade Australia. Theres a lot of them, and they own a ridiculous arsenal of drugs including some pretty nasty halucinogenic stuff. If the entire Australian army is busy getting high the hippies can take over. And aren't you screwed then?

                                EDIT: They could borrow some of those Indonesian fishing boats to sneak in on ;)

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