Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Hypothetical Sino-Russian War

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #46
    Originally posted by zraver View Post
    [quotes]Except that Russian pilots are starved for flight time, the eastern disctricts have been all but ignored, the planes need spares, and of course the fact that the Chinese pilots are well trained well funded, and are now aquiring the Hong-7 medium bomber which has superior avionics to the now aging SU-24 and can easily hit every airfeild the VVS could use to tactically support the Red Army in theater.

    Russia retires and repalce smore ICBM than China posses each year, in a thermonuclear exchange Russia would be greoivously wounded with the hearts cut out of upto a dozen cites, but China would be glassed
    Hi Zraver! You view is a bit biased here....

    Chinese airforce is hopeless even if they decide to hit Russia first. Don't dimiss the dense SAM defense of the area.... Hong-7 will need to get through many barriers on their way before hitting any airfields.

    Another thing which many of you ALWAYs disconsider about MiG-29 - its ability to operate from unprepaired airfields - automotive roads..... They must be DISABLED to be disconsidered from battle.

    The story about Russian pilots having low flight time is now RAPIDLY moving to an outdated information. For example fighter pilots of major duty regiments in 2006 had increased their flight time to 100 hours (Red Zvezda). They can not have more - they need combat-trainers with cheaper resource to move it higher. (I did not read about bomber regiments but they had three major bombing manuevers this year).

    at least 60 of Su-24 (a more than a regiment) of the Far Eastern region were upgraded to M2 version... how would you compare their avionics to Hong-7?

    This is in Russian but you can use translator to get view on what force is located there.... do you think Chinese army is capable to swallow that?

    СИБИРСКИЙ ВОЕННЫЙ ОКРУГ (СИБВО)
    Штаб в Чите. Командующий - генерал-полковник Николай Макаров. Многие воинские части состоят только из штабов и подразделений обеспечения. До полного состава они разворачиваются в особый период. Нет точных данных о количестве войск. Состав: 3 армии, 4 мотострелковые дивизии, 2 танковые дивизии, 2 отдельные мотострелковые бригады, десантно-штурмовая бригада, артиллерийская дивизия, артиллерийская бригада, реактивная артиллерийская бригада, противотанковый артиллерийский полк, ракетная бригада, 2 зенитные ракетные бригады, 3 отдельных вертолетных полка, 2 окружных учебных центра, базы хранения вооружения и техники, другие воинские части окружного подчинения. На вооружении войск и базах хранения свыше 4000 танков, 6000 боевых бронированных машин, 4300 артиллерийских установок, 35 боевых вертолетов.



    ДАЛЬНОВОСТОЧНЫЙ ВОЕННЫЙ ОКРУГ (ДВО)
    Штаб в Хабаровске. Командующий - генерал-полковник Юрий Якубов. В округе многие части состоят лишь из штабов и обеспечивающих подразделений. Нет точных данных о количестве войск. Состав: 2 общевойсковые армии, армейский корпус, 5 мотострелковых дивизий, 4 пулеметно-артиллерийские дивизии, танковая дивизия, воздушно-десантная бригада, 2 мотострелковые бригады, пулеметно-артиллерийская бригада, артиллерийская бригада большой мощности, 2 артиллерийские бригады, реактивная артиллерийская бригада, артиллерийский полк, 2 реактивных артиллерийских полка, 3 бригады оперативно-тактических ракет, 3 зенитные ракетные бригады, зенитный ракетный полк, 5 отдельных вертолетных полков, 2 окружных учебных центра, базы хранения вооружения и техники, другие воинские части окружного подчинения. На вооружении округа и базах хранения находится примерно 3900 танков, 6000 боевых бронированных машин, 3000 артиллерийских установки, 85 боевых вертолетов.

    Comment


    • #47
      This is in Russian but you can use translator to get view on what force is located there.... do you think Chinese army is capable to swallow that?
      Can anybody recommend me a translation tool better than babelfish? I was scratching my head like a retarded monkey for about 10 minutes before I figured out what the hell "jet artillery" was supposed to be.

      Garry, despite the mauling by babelfish, I did notice that it mentions all the units in the 2 military districts are at cadre strength. Could you give me an estimate of how long it would take in the event of a crisis to bring those formations up to strength? And whether that could be accomplished without allerting Chinese Intelligence?

      I know this is sort of off-topic, but was the Soviet Union capable of repeating something like August Storm back in say, 1969?

      Comment


      • #48
        Two questions. Say the RFE situation blows out of control and China attacks to "liberate" its Han settlers. If China only aims for "Northern Manchuria", what would happen?
        How would the situation run if this happened 5 years from now? 10 years from now? 15 years from now?

        After a large-scale Uighur uprising in Xinjiang, Russia acts to help "liberate" East Turkestan and capture its oil reserves (okay, a cliche and juvenile comprehension of state motivations). How would the Chinese handle that? Consider that Xinjiang is now more than 50 percent Han, and that other ethnic minorities in Xinjiang would not support East Turkestan, as it would be a new state based on Uighur superiority. The old state based on Han superiority is relatively bearable, since the Chinese are not wildly insecure in Xinjiang, despite the insurgent violence, and that the Chinese provide ethnic minorities with at least nominal privledges. Put the date at 2010.

        In both cases, please assume that Russia has finally gotten out of its rut, and around the 2010 / 2012 time period, is beginning to regenerate its officer corps. In the 2017 period, Russia should have small units of 5th generation aircraft and modern tanks, while China's military modernization should have continued at its present pace, perhaps with small units of its own J-12s, developed from stolen F-22 and F-35 technology.

        Comment


        • #49
          Originally posted by lazybastard View Post
          Could you give me an estimate of how long it would take in the event of a crisis to bring those formations up to strength?
          Book says 24-72 hours but more like 30 days.
          Originally posted by lazybastard View Post
          And whether that could be accomplished without allerting Chinese Intelligence?
          Most likely not but could the Chinese react any faster?
          Originally posted by lazybastard View Post
          I know this is sort of off-topic, but was the Soviet Union capable of repeating something like August Storm back in say, 1969?
          Right now, no, but only because they're tied up in Chechnya.

          Comment


          • #50
            By the way, I really think China would make a move for the RFE. It would allow China to have a bit more living space for a bit more population, increasing its CNP. Another 100 million population would really help out in improving its position against India, if the latter can keep its act together.

            Comment


            • #51
              Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
              Book says 24-72 hours but more like 30 days.Most likely not but could the Chinese react any faster?
              Sir, would it be feasible for the Chinese to launch a spoiling attack with whatever forces they have ready, in order to desrupt the Russian build-up - by cutting railroads, hitting airfields, etc?
              Right now, no, but only because they're tied up in Chechnya.
              By that I take it the Ruskies were more than capable of doing that during the 60s and 70s. WTF was Mao thinking? poking at a grizzly bear with a twig? Or were the border skirmishes out of his hands at that point?

              Edit: BTW, do Manchuria and Siberian have different railroad gauges?
              Last edited by lazybastard; 27 Apr 07,, 18:46.

              Comment


              • #52
                Does anyone know what the strategic petroleum reserves for the two are?

                If I were Russian and felt inclined to fight China I figure cutting their petroleum reserves would be the first thing to do. I could potentially starve China. Submarines in the straits of Malacca, maybe?
                Last edited by chankya; 27 Apr 07,, 21:17.
                "Of all the manifestations of power, restraint impresses men the most." - Thucydides

                Comment


                • #53
                  Good point no-one has tried this avenue of thought.

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    Originally posted by lazybastard View Post
                    Sir, would it be feasible for the Chinese to launch a spoiling attack with whatever forces they have ready, in order to desrupt the Russian build-up - by cutting railroads, hitting airfields, etc?
                    As of right now, by treaty, both Russian and Chinese formations are to be stationed 100 miles from their respective borders. The only forces accepted by both sides are border patrols, though I think there was an unacknowledged approval for the Chinese to move two group armies to the North Korean border.

                    This essentially means that as of right now, only the 15th Airborne Corps is capable of doing what you're suggesting but think Operation MARKET-GARDEN without the GARDEN part of that plan. Sure, they might disrupt a Russian build up but they will die doing so and they will only delay it, not stop it.

                    In the mean time, you still have 100 miles of Chinese territory to overcome even before you cross the border into Siberia. While not a big deal, it's still 100 miles worth of gas you have to spend before doing anything else.
                    Originally posted by lazybastard View Post
                    By that I take it the Ruskies were more than capable of doing that during the 60s and 70s. WTF was Mao thinking? poking at a grizzly bear with a twig? Or were the border skirmishes out of his hands at that point?
                    When the skirmishes started, the Soviets had less than 40,000 troops and no nuclear weapons in the area while the Chinese had stationed over a million troops and had tested a few nukes. So, in the beginning, the Chinese had the upper hand. By the time the skirmishes stopped, the Soviets moved over 400,000 troops and 4-600 nukes into the area.

                    So, from the military standpoint, Mao initiated actions, thinking the Soviets were too busy with NATO and who would want to fight a 2 front war? Apparently, the Soviets were more than willing.
                    Originally posted by lazybastard View Post
                    Edit: BTW, do Manchuria and Siberian have different railroad gauges?
                    They do now.

                    Comment


                    • #55
                      Originally posted by Garry View Post
                      Hi Zraver! You view is a bit biased here....

                      Chinese airforce is hopeless even if they decide to hit Russia first. Don't dimiss the dense SAM defense of the area.... Hong-7 will need to get through many barriers on their way before hitting any airfields.

                      Another thing which many of you ALWAYs disconsider about MiG-29 - its ability to operate from unprepaired airfields - automotive roads..... They must be DISABLED to be disconsidered from battle.

                      The story about Russian pilots having low flight time is now RAPIDLY moving to an outdated information. For example fighter pilots of major duty regiments in 2006 had increased their flight time to 100 hours (Red Zvezda). They can not have more - they need combat-trainers with cheaper resource to move it higher. (I did not read about bomber regiments but they had three major bombing manuevers this year).

                      at least 60 of Su-24 (a more than a regiment) of the Far Eastern region were upgraded to M2 version... how would you compare their avionics to Hong-7?

                      This is in Russian but you can use translator to get view on what force is located there.... do you think Chinese army is capable to swallow that?
                      Looking at JH-7A vs su-24M, JH-7A does have many advantages in combat radius because it uses the far more fuel efficient Spey engine (which compares favourably even to AL-31F at cruising speed). It also has a huge leg up in the weapons that it can use (basically everything we got as part of mkk deal) + all the recent Chinese PGMs and LACMs. Russia right now simply don't have any satellite guided bombs like LS-6 and FT-series. And it appears to me that YJ-91 is upgraded compared to kh-31 and KD-88 has better range than kh-59 series. As for the avionics, I think the best place to get an idea is
                      Chinese Military Aviation
                      you can check the section on JH-7A, although I would say the radar is no longer JL-10A. But look, JH-7A will be at peace mission 2007 for sure. RuAF will get a very good look at it.

                      Comment


                      • #56
                        Originally posted by tphuang View Post
                        Looking at JH-7A vs su-24M, JH-7A does have many advantages in combat radius because it uses the far more fuel efficient Spey engine (which compares favourably even to AL-31F at cruising speed). It also has a huge leg up in the weapons that it can use (basically everything we got as part of mkk deal) + all the recent Chinese PGMs and LACMs. Russia right now simply don't have any satellite guided bombs like LS-6 and FT-series. And it appears to me that YJ-91 is upgraded compared to kh-31 and KD-88 has better range than kh-59 series. As for the avionics, I think the best place to get an idea is
                        Chinese Military Aviation
                        you can check the section on JH-7A, although I would say the radar is no longer JL-10A. But look, JH-7A will be at peace mission 2007 for sure. RuAF will get a very good look at it.
                        Hi Thuang, Su-24m2 does not need to fly very far it is not assumed to be long-range bomber but rather a small theatre weapon. The long-range is Su-34 of which only 6 has been delivered and 2 approved for service.

                        Sattelite guided munitions is only part of the problem... there are other guided systems, but even if it were complete absense of those Russia does exceed China in all sorts of firepower in general and on the boarder.

                        PLA know about it and they will never attack Russia before taking out artillery/MLRS. In 1969 Russians used BM-21 and proved that MLRS can easilly equal 90 boarder guards to a few battalions..... and to knock out those artillery/MLRS positions PLAAF will need to go through SAMs and Fighter cover... they have very little chance for that without massive use of cruise missiles. Mongolia is also making problems - it stays just in the middle breaking border into two distant parts..... Chinese/Russian border is good place to defend though but not that good to attack.... unless Mongolia is occupied
                        Attached Files

                        Comment


                        • #57
                          Originally posted by Garry View Post
                          Hi Thuang, Su-24m2 does not need to fly very far it is not assumed to be long-range bomber but rather a small theatre weapon. The long-range is Su-34 of which only 6 has been delivered and 2 approved for service.

                          Sattelite guided munitions is only part of the problem... there are other guided systems, but even if it were complete absense of those Russia does exceed China in all sorts of firepower in general and on the boarder.

                          PLA know about it and they will never attack Russia before taking out artillery/MLRS. In 1969 Russians used BM-21 and proved that MLRS can easilly equal 90 boarder guards to a few battalions..... and to knock out those artillery/MLRS positions PLAAF will need to go through SAMs and Fighter cover... they have very little chance for that without massive use of cruise missiles. Mongolia is also making problems - it stays just in the middle breaking border into two distant parts..... Chinese/Russian border is good place to defend though but not that good to attack.... unless Mongolia is occupied
                          There is no doubt about that and there is absolute no reason for China to attack Russia when it needs all the friend it can get in the world. I've always said that China's attentions are strictly on USA, Taiwan and Japan. Anyone else thinks China has anything left to threaten them in military kind of sense is just paranoid. I was simply responding to su-24m vs JH-7A. But even in the case of su-34, I think a combat radius of 600 km with 4000 kg payload is not enough.

                          Comment


                          • #58
                            Originally posted by tphuang View Post
                            There is no doubt about that and there is absolute no reason for China to attack Russia when it needs all the friend it can get in the world. I've always said that China's attentions are strictly on USA, Taiwan and Japan. Anyone else thinks China has anything left to threaten them in military kind of sense is just paranoid. I was simply responding to su-24m vs JH-7A. But even in the case of su-34, I think a combat radius of 600 km with 4000 kg payload is not enough.
                            Hi tphuang!

                            I actually still don't understand why they made such a wide configuration of cockpit when pilots are side by side instead of traditional tandem ..... this increases drag and reduces radius.... and what for? There are other questions with Su-34 as well.... WHY TO ARMOR its cockpit!?!?!? The aircraft is not assumed to attack on VERY LOW ALTITUDES.... it is a high altitude bomber IT IS NOT CAS.... then why to waste so much weight on the armor? It is said that it has toilet in the cockpit.... so that pilots can spend 10 hours in flight. But IT CAN NOT FLY 10 HOURS WITH COMBAT LOAD.... nor even without it! Only with refuelling...... Another why?

                            ps. Its combat radius with 4 tons of load is more than 600km. I don't remember figures but I read somewhere it has more than that with full load of 8 tons.
                            Last edited by Garry; 02 May 07,, 12:16.

                            Comment


                            • #59
                              Because with refueling, it -can-. It is an aircraft that can fly deep into enemy territory, or around enemy territory it shouldn't need to cross, and strike as needed - it is more maneuverable than a bomber, it is much smaller, faster, it can self-escort, and in general it can be deployed from remote bases which is what it's all about. :)

                              If China was to get into a tiff with -anyone-, they'd have a long way to fly :)

                              Originally posted by Garry View Post
                              But IT CAN NOT FLY 10 HOURS WITH COMBAT LOAD.... nor even without it! Only with refuelling...... Another why?

                              Comment


                              • #60
                                Completely unlikely. Neither the Chinese nor the Russian leaders have any interest in this war. China is busy developing its own economy. Russia is slowly falling apart at the moment.

                                At the rate of Chinese illegal imigration into Siberia the Chinese won't need to start a war to reclaim Siberia. The Russian Far East is already demographically threatened.

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X