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Indiana, Republican Bastion, May Favor Democrats in House Races

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  • Indiana, Republican Bastion, May Favor Democrats in House Races

    Courtesy Bloomberg:

    Indiana, Republican Bastion, May Favor Democrats in House Races
    2006-09-06 00:24 (New York)


    By Laura Litvan
    Sept. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Indiana, where President George W.
    Bush won 60 percent of the vote two years ago, was supposed to be
    the political floodwall against any Democratic tide in this
    year's congressional elections. The dam may now be cracking.
    Democrats have a chance to pick up three Republican-held
    House seats in the state as voters register their discontent over
    the Iraq war, the loss of thousands of jobs and unpopular
    decisions by Republican Governor Mitch Daniels.
    ``I think fence-sitters who don't necessarily vote in every
    election have gotten fed up with the Republicans in general,''
    said Max Schut, a 43-year-old registered Republican who lives in
    South Bend and works at a local mortgage company. Schut, who said
    he usually votes, may not bother this time.
    That is bad news for his congressman, Representative Chris
    Chocola, who says the biggest risk to his re-election is that
    Republicans won't turn out to vote. He and fellow Republican
    incumbents John Hostettler and Mike Sodrel are all locked in
    razor-thin races whose outcomes, Chocola said, may determine
    whether Republicans hold their House majority.
    ``If all of us lose, I think we'll have lost the House,''
    Chocola, 44, said in an interview.
    That appears increasingly possible, according to the
    nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report. The Washington
    newsletter rates all three Indiana races as ``toss-ups'' with a
    slight Democratic advantage, and predicts Democrats will gain 15
    to 20 House seats in the Nov. 7 elections. A gain of 15 would
    give them control of the 435-member House.
    Most of the other strong opportunities for Democrats this
    fall are in Connecticut, Pennsylvania and New York -- all of
    which backed Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry in 2004
    -- and Ohio, which narrowly backed Bush.

    A Republican Tradition

    With the exception of 1964, Indiana has backed the
    Republican candidate in every presidential race since 1936, and
    Republicans now hold seven of the state's nine House seats.
    That could change this year, said Del Ali, president of
    Research 2000, an Olney, Maryland-based polling company that has
    conducted surveys in Indiana.
    ``I think these elections are going to be nationalized,''
    Ali said. ``You could have a situation where voters say, `Throw
    them all out.'''
    A poll of 400 likely voters Ali conducted July 21-23 found
    Chocola had support of just 41 percent of likely voters, while
    46 percent said they would support his Democratic opponent,
    business owner and lawyer Joe Donnelly.
    Sensing opportunity, the Democratic Congressional Campaign
    Committee is now targeting all three Indiana races for extra
    television ads and other help before Election Day.

    Impersonating Bush

    In southeastern Indiana, Sodrel, 60, a trucking-company
    owner, is battling former Representative Baron Hill, 53, the
    Democrat he unseated in 2004 by just 1,425 votes. Seeking to
    exploit Sodrel's support for Bush on issues such as overhauling
    energy policy, the DCCC produced a TV ad in which an actor
    impersonating Bush leaves a voice-mail message for Sodrel
    thanking him for supporting tax breaks for oil companies and
    allowing energy companies to gouge Indiana drivers.
    In southwest Indiana, Hostettler, 45, is facing the toughest
    campaign of his six terms in office, said Nathan Gonzales,
    political editor of the Rothenberg Political Report.
    In the past, Hostettler's opposition to abortion and federal
    funding for embryonic stem-cell research has allowed him to rely
    on church-drawn volunteers to win re-election. Ed Feigenbaum,
    editor of Indiana Legislative Insight, a nonpartisan newsletter
    based in Noblesville, said it isn't clear this time whether he
    can count on the same level of support from evangelical
    Christians.

    Not a `Wacko'

    Hostettler's opponent, Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad
    Ellsworth, stresses his own conservative views on social issues.
    ``He's a Democrat who can legally carry a gun in the district,''
    Feigenbaum said. ``He's not a liberal wacko who can be painted as
    Hostettler's polar opposite.''
    Ellsworth, 47, had raised $1 million in campaign funds
    through June 30, with $676,000 cash on hand remaining. Hostettler
    raised just $287,000, with $195,000 cash on hand.
    Much of the dissatisfaction Republicans are facing in
    Indiana stems from disenchantment with Bush. An Aug. 14 statewide
    poll of 600 Indiana adults by Survey USA found that just 45
    percent of respondents approved of the job Bush is doing, while
    52 percent disapproved.
    Adding to that are controversial decisions by Daniels, who
    was Bush's director of the Office of Management and Budget before
    being elected governor in 2004. They include a decision to lease
    the Indiana Toll Road, which runs through Chocola's northwest
    Indiana district, to an Australian-Spanish consortium for $3.9
    billion. The proceeds from the deal are going to help build roads
    throughout the state, which angers many local toll-paying
    residents.

    A Time-Zone Patchwork

    Daniels also pushed through the state legislature a plan to
    put Indiana on daylight savings time, which created a patchwork
    of time zones in Chocola's district as each county selected its
    own.
    Voters, the congressman said, are ``mad at the governor, so
    the question is, will they take it out on me?''
    Chocola said he hears more complaints from voters about job
    insecurity than he does about the Iraq war. His district has lost
    thousands of manufacturing jobs in the last decade as companies
    such as Rockwell Automation Inc., Whirlpool Corp. and
    Wheelabrator Technologies Inc. cut back operations.
    Donnelly uses every opportunity to remind Democratic voters
    that Chocola in his first term supported Bush 100 percent of the
    time in key votes tracked by Congressional Quarterly magazine,
    and 90 percent of the time in 2004. Donnelly cited the
    incumbent's support for Bush repeatedly last week as he made the
    rounds at a fish fry, a local club for veterans and a union hall.
    ``This is crunch time,'' Donnelly told members of the
    International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers in La Porte.
    ``Right here in Indiana, this is Ground Zero.''
    Chocola, for his part, says he is proud of his record, which
    includes support for low taxes and less regulation for
    manufacturers. He won't, he said in an interview, distance
    himself from Bush to ``save my political hide.''

    --Editor: Berley (rxj/jto).

    Story Illustration: For stories on Congress see {NI CNG <GO>}.
    To graph the change in the U.S. budget deficit, click on
    {FDEBTY <Index> GP <GO>}.

    To contact the reporter on this story:
    Laura Litvan in South Bend, Ind., at (1)(202) 624-1840 or
    [email protected]

    To contact the editor responsible for this story:
    Ken Fireman at (1) (202) 624-1978 or [email protected]


    #<698734.251583.1.0.7.4.25>#
    -0- Sep/06/2006 04:24 GMT

  • #2
    Thanks for a specific article. It's disappointing to see that there isn't much national coverage with poll #s on these races. CQ is currently predicting 1 of the races for the GOP and the rest are rated as no clear favorite.
    "So little pains do the vulgar take in the investigation of truth, accepting readily the first story that comes to hand." Thucydides 1.20.3

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