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  • Israel on Iran's Nukes

    Having been reduced to a stalemate in Lebanon after several weeks of war, would Isreal still seek to attack and destroy Iran's nuke programs.

    There has been lots of talk on the range of F-15/16 in Israeli inventory, the question is does Israel have an aircraft carrier that can go near the gulf and launch its planes. With the mess in Iraq rightnow, there are strong doubts that US will allow Israel to use Iraqi airfields.

    Also, does Iran have S-300 series air defense batteries and if so, have is it true that Israelis and french have figured out as to how to jamm S-300s.

  • #2
    This discusses some of your questions: http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/showthread.php?t=13308
    No man is free until all men are free - John Hossack
    I agree completely with this Administration’s goal of a regime change in Iraq-John Kerry
    even if that enforcement is mostly at the hands of the United States, a right we retain even if the Security Council fails to act-John Kerry
    He may even miscalculate and slide these weapons off to terrorist groups to invite them to be a surrogate to use them against the United States. It’s the miscalculation that poses the greatest threat-John Kerry

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by hound
      There has been lots of talk on the range of F-15/16 in Israeli inventory, the question is does Israel have an aircraft carrier that can go near the gulf and launch its planes. With the mess in Iraq rightnow, there are strong doubts that US will allow Israel to use Iraqi airfields.
      They don't have even helicopter carriers, let alone aircraft carriers. The closest thing is their missile boats, which can carry one helicopter.

      Also, does Iran have S-300 series air defense batteries and if so, have is it true that Israelis and french have figured out as to how to jamm S-300s.
      ...S-300s suffer from the same limitations as other SAMs. They're always at 0 speed and 0 altitude.

      Otherwise, Israel doesn't have the force projection beyond token attacks.

      Full stop.
      HD Ready?

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by hound
        Having been reduced to a stalemate in Lebanon after several weeks of war, would Isreal still seek to attack and destroy Iran's nuke programs.
        Son, if you think that was a stalemate you don't have the military sense of the average Cub Scout.

        Originally posted by hound
        There has been lots of talk on the range of F-15/16 in Israeli inventory, the question is does Israel have an aircraft carrier that can go near the gulf and launch its planes. With the mess in Iraq rightnow, there are strong doubts that US will allow Israel to use Iraqi airfields.

        Also, does Iran have S-300 series air defense batteries and if so, have is it true that Israelis and french have figured out as to how to jamm S-300s.
        As far as Israel attacking Iran from the air: Yes, they can, and it is extremely unlikely Iran could stop them.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by HistoricalDavid
          ...S-300s suffer from the same limitations as other SAMs. They're always at 0 speed and 0 altitude.

          Otherwise, Israel doesn't have the force projection beyond token attacks.

          Full stop.
          Simply not true. Tehran is only 993 statute miles from Tel Aviv. The Jews would have to carry extra drop tanks, and tank going in and going out....but they could definitely reach Tehran with their F-15s.

          All of them.


          Israeli F-15I refueling from Israeli B707 tanker.
          Last edited by Bill; 20 Aug 06,, 17:30.

          Comment


          • #6
            'if you think that was a stalemate you don't have the military sense of the average Cub Scout.'

            Jogsie! what if Hezebulloh is destroyed by 100%, it will take them another 6 months to rearm and back to square 2 or 3 if not sqaure 1. Suicidal crackpots are available in hordes to be become a cannon fodder or simply walk into a place and do the deed.

            I have been thinking about what can be the answers to the guerrilla warfares....the only I could find were a) genocide b) political agreement so that both sides calm down for good. Too bad neither US nor Israel have these option B as avialable as Islamic fascists do not even want Israel to exist in the middle east. They do not understand that in modern times it is not land but labor that makes the countries rich and happy. Israel was a barren desert in 1948 and look what it is now. Option A of genocide is not practical or even viable.

            Soviets in Afganistan, US in Iraq and to some extent in Vietnam, US in Afganistan (Taliban is back now after being wiped off) and many other nation's cases around the world lead me to conclude that guerrialla warfare is the most deadly form of war a small and poor enemy can wage against the big and mighty force.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by hound
              US in Afganistan (Taliban is back now after being wiped off) and many other nation's cases around the world lead me to conclude that guerrialla warfare is the most deadly form of war a small and poor enemy can wage against the big and mighty force.
              gimme a break... Taliban is being pushed into their ratholes... everytime they come out, dozens of their pigs get slaughtered compared to 1 or 2 allied troops that fall... Guerilla warfare is only deadly to a point but when the rest also learn to play the same game (or to counter it), the pigs get slaughtered in masses...

              and btw, your recent change in topic has nothing to do with aviation...
              Cow is the only animal that not only inhales oxygen, but also exhales it.
              -Rekha Arya, Former Minister of Animal Husbandry

              Comment


              • #8
                The topic was changed by m21sniper who definitely missed the shot.......when he questioned the stalemate comment.

                Trust me, Afganistan is more of a mess today than it was a couple of years ago.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by hound
                  The topic was changed by m21sniper who definitely missed the shot.......when he questioned the stalemate comment.
                  lol... and who made the stalement comment in the first place???

                  Trust me, Afganistan is more of a mess today than it was a couple of years ago.
                  you're joking right??? you seriously think Afghanistan was less of a mess under the rule of Taliban??? joke of the year...
                  Cow is the only animal that not only inhales oxygen, but also exhales it.
                  -Rekha Arya, Former Minister of Animal Husbandry

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by hound
                    'if you think that was a stalemate you don't have the military sense of the average Cub Scout.'

                    Jogsie! what if Hezebulloh is destroyed by 100%, it will take them another 6 months to rearm and back to square 2 or 3 if not sqaure 1. Suicidal crackpots are available in hordes to be become a cannon fodder or simply walk into a place and do the deed.
                    That does not change the fact that Hezbollah will have to rebuild it's ranks and armorys.

                    Let's face it, they got their motherloving clocks cleaned.

                    Originally posted by hound
                    I have been thinking about what can be the answers to the guerrilla warfares....the only I could find were a) genocide b) political agreement so that both sides calm down for good.
                    You realize 'political agreement' is just another word for surrender, right?

                    "The quickest way to end a war is to lose it."
                    ~G.Orwell

                    Originally posted by hound
                    Too bad neither US nor Israel have these option B as avialable as Islamic fascists do not even want Israel to exist in the middle east.
                    See that, now you're on the right track.

                    "We have always said that in our fight with the muslims we had a secret weapon. No choice."
                    ~Golda Meir

                    Originally posted by hound
                    They do not understand that in modern times it is not land but labor that makes the countries rich and happy. Israel was a barren desert in 1948 and look what it is now.
                    Time to educate you a little more. This fight has nothing to do with land.

                    Originally posted by hound
                    Option A of genocide is not practical or even viable.
                    Definitely not viable....but it's actually extremely practical. You could even use the term "Easy" from an actual implementation standpoint.

                    Originally posted by hound
                    Soviets in Afganistan, US in Iraq and to some extent in Vietnam, US in Afganistan (Taliban is back now after being wiped off) and many other nation's cases around the world lead me to conclude that guerrialla warfare is the most deadly form of war a small and poor enemy can wage against the big and mighty force.
                    It depends how it's handled. A lot of guerilla forces get wiped out or simply never 'catch on', or fall into disfavor. It just depends on the exact circumstances of the fight.

                    One thing that history has proven indisputably....surrender is not an effective strategy to win any war.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by M21Sniper
                      Simply not true. Tehran is only 993 statute miles from Tel Aviv. The Jews would have to carry extra drop tanks, and tank going in and going out....but they could definitely reach Tehran with their F-15s.

                      All of them.


                      Israeli F-15I refueling from Israeli B707 tanker.
                      And how many B707 tankers have they got?

                      Would they be able to protect them properly? That means loading some F-15s with A2A loads.

                      Would the F-15s remaining carry enough A2G - presumably including heavy BLU-109s and bloody heavy GBU-28s - to seriously stop Iran's programme?

                      They definitely could inflict damage but I personally have no confidence in the sort of heavy punch really necessary. I.e. what I meant when I said 'token attacks'.
                      HD Ready?

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by HistoricalDavid
                        And how many B707 tankers have they got?
                        I could not find how many tankers the jews have wth a brief online search,(which is not exactly shocking) but....

                        One 707(or KC-135) will support a F-15 4 ship coming and going. So for each 707 they can send 4 F-15s to Tehran and back. So if they can put up 3 707 tankers at once(and one certainly would assume they can), they can conduct Sqn level F-15 attacks on Tehran. With 9 they can conduct Wing level attacks.

                        The Jews also have several KC-130s in their inventory as well.

                        Originally posted by HistoricalDavid
                        Would they be able to protect them properly? That means loading some F-15s with A2A loads.
                        Eagles(and Hornets and Vipers) are self-escorting birds wrt A2A threats. I doubt the jews even give them external jamming support as a matter of doctrine, though they may assign Weasel escorts(i really don't know).

                        Originally posted by HistoricalDavid
                        Would the F-15s remaining carry enough A2G to seriously stop Iran's programme?
                        I do not believe that would(or should) be the goal, but no.

                        What they can do is deny the Iranian people the use of running water, electricity, and other modern conveniences for just so long as it pleases the Israeli people to do so.

                        IOW, we're talking about a reprisal campaign aimed at crushing Iranian infrastructure, not a campaign of specifically targeting nuke sites(though the Jews- or us- would surely hit them as they became aware of them)

                        Originally posted by HistoricalDavid
                        They definitely could inflict damage but I personally have no confidence in the sort of heavy punch really necessary. I.e. what I meant when I said 'token attacks'.
                        1000 token attacks over a 50 day period(thats only 20 sorties a day) is no longer a token event.

                        Agreed?

                        As we saw in Yugoslavia, an air campaign alone can work, and even if it doesn't work- ie cause an Iranian capitulation- there is nothing to stop the jews from revisitng Iran daily and making sure they never have a working electrical socket to plug a lamp into ever again, and that's just fine by me.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          "What they can do is deny the Iranian people the use of running water, electricity, and other modern conveniences for just so long as it pleases the Israeli people to do so."

                          That's awesome.

                          Two questions.

                          First of all, they aren't getting through Syrian air space legally. Perhaps the F--15's and such could get through alive, but would these necessary tankers get through Syrian air space without being downed by SAM's, or bandits? Next, they must penetrate Iraqi air space. That implicates us. If we don't respond to a foreign air power flying through Iraqi air space, we will get serious political flak, yes? Otherwise, they have to go through Turkey...

                          Or would they fly through Saudi Arabia, en route to the Persian Gulf? Then they only piss of the Saudis!

                          Second. Sure, they might do this once, but wouldn't Syria, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Hell, we, get really pissed about Israel pissing all over the entire regions sovereignty? I figure, before long, they'd start losing aircraft.

                          What then? They might make lights out in Tehran for one night, but then what? That wouldn't be enough. Their leaders, I imagine, would take months of stone age life before they would be ousted in a desperate effort to seek reconciliation.

                          Am I wrong?

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by spittle8
                            That's awesome.

                            Two questions.

                            First of all, they aren't getting through Syrian air space legally. Perhaps the F--15's and such could get through alive, but would these necessary tankers get through Syrian air space without being downed by SAM's, or bandits?
                            I think the great Bekaa valley turkey shoot of 1982 is most likely a pretty clear indicator of how well Syria will be able to defend it's airspeace against Israel. I doubt the Syrian AF would last more than a day or two, and the F-15s can literally fly over almost any threat in the Syrian Arsenal, but of course an extensive IADS reduction effort would have to be undertaken before tankers could overfly Syrian air space. This would all of course have to be part of any Israeli campaign.

                            Originally posted by spittle8
                            Next, they must penetrate Iraqi air space. That implicates us. If we don't respond to a foreign air power flying through Iraqi air space, we will get serious political flak, yes? Otherwise, they have to go through Turkey...
                            This would have to wait till we either left, or the situation was so out of hand that the normal political dog and pony shows no longer applied.


                            Originally posted by spittle8
                            Or would they fly through Saudi Arabia, en route to the Persian Gulf? Then they only piss of the Saudis!
                            The Saudis couldn't stop them either to be quite honest. But i doubt you'd see Israel go that route at all.

                            Originally posted by spittle8
                            Sure, they might do this once, but wouldn't Syria, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Hell, we, get really pissed about Israel pissing all over the entire regions sovereignty? I figure, before long, they'd start losing aircraft.
                            Im sure they'd lose aircraft just as i'm sure everyone would get pissed. However, the only one that could stop them is us, and obviously if they're launching this attack they've got at least tacit US approval to begin with(which is hardly a stretch of the imagination).

                            Originally posted by spittle8
                            What then? They might make lights out in Tehran for one night, but then what? That wouldn't be enough. Their leaders, I imagine, would take months of stone age life before they would be ousted in a desperate effort to seek reconciliation.

                            Am I wrong?
                            Well the thing is once Israel takes down the Syrian AF/IADS to get at Iran to begin with, well....at that point they can strike at will at any point thereafter.

                            Getting there the first time is the hard part. Getting back would be easy.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by M21Sniper
                              I could not find how many tankers the jews have wth a brief online search,(which is not exactly shocking) but....

                              One 707(or KC-135) will support a F-15 4 ship coming and going. So for each 707 they can send 4 F-15s to Tehran and back. So if they can put up 3 707 tankers at once(and one certainly would assume they can), they can conduct Sqn level F-15 attacks on Tehran. With 9 they can conduct Wing level attacks.
                              Tehran is only one small part of Iran, and tucked in the east.

                              If they have a similar flight profile to Osiraq, their fuel consumption would increase again.

                              The Jews also have several KC-130s in their inventory as well.

                              Eagles(and Hornets and Vipers) are self-escorting birds wrt A2A threats.
                              Mixed A2G/A2A loads? Sounds like a range-killer and dangerous in that they will waste so much precious energy.

                              I doubt the jews even give them external jamming support as a matter of doctrine, though they may assign Weasel escorts(i really don't know).

                              I do not believe that would(or should) be the goal, but no.

                              What they can do is deny the Iranian people the use of running water, electricity, and other modern conveniences for just so long as it pleases the Israeli people to do so.
                              Yup, but leaving Iran's (admittedly limited) retaliatory capability open, leaving a PR disaster (scratch that, the Israelis never were much affected by bad 'PR' ha) and possibly the nuclear programme in the western parts open.

                              1000 token attacks over a 50 day period(thats only 20 sorties a day) is no longer a token event.

                              Agreed?
                              Only in the western parts of Iran.

                              Not that they have my confidence in their abilities but apparently the Iranians have 200 (total) MiG-29s, F-4s and F-14s, obviously with huge loiter time over western Iran versus fuel and hence energy-strapped F-15s.

                              As we saw in Yugoslavia, an air campaign alone can work, and even if it doesn't work- ie cause an Iranian capitulation-
                              As has been discussed on this forum, OAF wasn't a total success - Yugo army left intact.

                              there is nothing to stop the jews from revisitng Iran daily and making sure they never have a working electrical socket to plug a lamp into ever again, and that's just fine by me.
                              Taking that literally, can they bomb power plants in the east? Perhaps, but you'll sympathise if I don't put any money on it.
                              HD Ready?

                              Comment

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