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Is China becoming an economic superpower?

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  • #61
    Originally posted by zraver View Post
    I agree that a lot of countries are aging, some dangerously so (Japan, France, Germany) but the US has a couple of advantages. First, we take in a lot of immigrants that help to off set the boomers leaving the work force. Second, our boomer generation predates China's one child policy so we will leave the age problem sooner.
    I believe that these other countries that have "dangerous" aging popluations don't seem to worry that much, nor should they, so the focus on china's aging is overhyped and unwarranted. Australian economist have already done a projection and even in 2050, china's growth rate will still be much higher than the current advanced economies today. This suggest that the aging population is not that big a deal.

    Long-term international GDP projections | The Treasury

    Now mind you that this is all pre-plenum. In future, the family planning policies may be additionally tweaked, and the one child policy may be scrapped. China may have done its own projections and have decided to keep the one child policy in a neutered form as it is for its own purpose.

    It has served the chinese well as you can imagine since the 1970's the overwhelming majority of chinese were poorer than your isolated hill billies. thats dirt poor. Look at them now.

    However there will of course be a trade off in any economic policies, but its no different to say germany when it lost most of its young men to war. It bounced back with a vengance.

    China has its "basic dictatorship" which allows it go implement reforms that is likely to have a quicker effect than most democracies.

    There is also the possibility for china to introduce an immigration policy for skilled migrants. This is easy for china as all it has to do is attract the scientist of chinese decent scattered all around the world with the bulk of them in the US. This is already happening and will gather pace when china get richer.

    China plans to attract more overseas Chinese scholars in next 5 years

    I suppose new forecast will have to be made post plenum and I can bet that it will be more optimistic than the already optimistic outlook pre-plenum

    Originally posted by zraver View Post
    China will be dying a quick death... Look at the number of workers over time projections. By 2100 the working population of China wont be much bigger than the working population of the US but its elderly population will be more than double.
    That is if it doesn't do anything. but judging by past tweaking of the policy and the recent plenum, and the announcement that the 1CP is going to be abolished in future, then your wildly dire forecast doesn't hold water.

    Originally posted by zraver View Post
    As for China's economy growing at unprecedented rates... Its not sustainable and already slowing down. The amount of social disruption and environmental damage has created a bill that has to be paid.
    Its created a bill for an entirely new class of industry. The Green industry. Thats growth. no different to a the broken window giving a glazier additional work. Or a dirty kitchen giving household chemicals a net economic benefit.

    Originally posted by zraver View Post
    Already there are massive bubbles that are inflating towards bursting points, riots of disgruntled workers, rampant corruption.... China has about zero chance of surpassing the US even if the US makes major mistakes and china never makes another one. The only thing that can bring down the US is our own debt.
    when the bubble burst in the US, it wasn't the end of the world. It won't be any differnt in china and they do have a leadership and plenty of spare change (without borrowing) that can do something about it unlike congress.
    Last edited by winton; 26 Nov 13,, 02:27.

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    • #62
      Economic superpower is also able to sell goods even they are expensive. In my opinion right now most of the markets to which China exports importing goods because of the cost effective prices.

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      • #63
        Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.....

        China economical miracle, blah blah blah.......

        Soviet Union done it in 1930s.

        Japan done it in 1970s

        Even a perpetual villain named Adolf Hilter done better than Mr. Bernanke.

        Hitler vs. Bernanke » CounterPunch: Tells the Facts, Names the Names

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        • #64
          Originally posted by Enzo Ferrari View Post
          Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.....

          China economical miracle, blah blah blah.......
          I know. It does get kinda boring after awhile.

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          • #65
            Originally posted by politics View Post
            Economic superpower is also able to sell goods even they are expensive. In my opinion right now most of the markets to which China exports importing goods because of the cost effective prices.
            Chinese Companies? Cost effective prices? If you define "cost effective" as SOEs get to borrow inordinate amounts of money at profanely low rates from banks to subsidize their prices, then yes. I guess so.

            China's "economic miracle" occurred during the 1980-2002. Everything after that has be absurdly idiotic.

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            • #66
              Originally posted by Enzo Ferrari View Post

              Even a perpetual villain named Adolf Hilter done better than Mr. Bernanke.

              Hitler vs. Bernanke » CounterPunch: Tells the Facts, Names the Names

              Enzo:

              What that article doesn't cover is how Hitler was able improve unemployment numbers. There is no way Bernanke could employ the same tactics. While Hitler did indeed improve the economy, it came at the cost of individual freedoms and, I might add, nutritional deprivation.

              I don't want to derail this thread into another Hitler discussion, so I hope we can leave it here:


              The Nazis and the German Economy

              A number of policies were introduced which caused the unemployment figures to drop.

              Women were no longer included in the statistics so any women who remained out of work under the Nazi’s rule did not exist as far as the statistics were concerned.

              The unemployed were given a very simple choice: do whatever work is given to you by the government or be classed as "work-shy" and put in a concentration camp.

              Jews lost their citizenship in 1935 and as a result were not included in unemployment figures even though many lost their employment at the start of Hitler’s time in power.

              Many young men were taken off of the unemployment figure when conscription was brought in (1935) and men had to do their time in the army etc. By 1939, the army was 1.4 million strong. To equip these men with weapons etc., factories were built and this took even more off of the unemployment figure.

              With these measures in place the unemployment figure had to fall drastically and many saw the Nazi figures as nothing more than a book-keeping trick. However, many would have been too scared to speak out against the Nazis or pass negative comments on the published figures - such was the fear of the Gestapo.

              However, there is no doubt that work was created. The Nazis introduced public work schemes for men who worked in the National Labour Service (Reichsarbeitsdienst or RAD). Their work would have included digging ditches on farms to assist irrigation, building the new autobahns, planting new forests etc. The men of the RAD wore a military style uniform, lived in camps near to where they were working and received only what we would term pocket money. However, compared to the lack of success of the Weimar government and the chronic misery of 1931 to 1932, these men felt that at least the Nazi government was making the effort to improve their lot.

              To ‘protect’ those in work, the German Labour Front was set up. This was lead by Robert Ley. The GLF took the role of trade unions which had been banned. To an extent, the GLF did this. Ley ordered that workers could not be sacked on the spot but he also ordered that a worker could not leave his job without the government’s permission. Only government labour exchanges could arrange for a new job if someone did leave his employment.

              However, the GLF increased the number of hours worked from 60 to 72 per week (including overtime) by 1939. Strikes were outlawed. The average factory worker was earning 10 times more than those on dole money and few complained – though to do so was fraught with potential difficulties.
              To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

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              • #67
                Godwin's Law that is actually informative?

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                • #68
                  Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                  Godwin's Law that is actually informative?
                  Which would make it appropriate to post the link.

                  Godwin's law - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
                  To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

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                  • #69
                    This thread is getting so stupid....might as well close it.
                    “the misery of being exploited by capitalists is nothing compared to the misery of not being exploited at all” -- Joan Robinson

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