Is China becoming an economic superpower?

[winton]

Some pertinent data for this debate. By 2030s China will begin to experience levels of old age dependency seen in the developed world today.

Is this pre-plenum or post plenum? Cause the plenum is a game changer.

Its like Canadian opposition leader Justin Trudeau said
"You know, there’s a level of of admiration I actually have for China because their basic dictatorship is allowing them to actually turn their economy around on a dime"

To turn their population around on a dime is as easy as it was when they introduce the one child policy.

[JAD_333]

yes. plenty of precedence in history to point this out.

How about citing some.

No. plenty of current data to point this out. look at Singapore, Lichtenstein for example

How about backing that up with some data.

China tipped to surpass U.S. as top superpower - Jul. 18, 2013

Polls are not proof.

no. Imagine if the USA was a pip squeak tiny country with many allies. Does that make it a superpower?

You miss the point; a superpower must have many allies. What allies does China have?

and the only dependable ally the US has is Australia. Its good for one special forces platoon or one company of regs. No other country will give you that.

Be serious.

[citanon]

To turn their population around on a dime is as easy as it was when they introduce the one child policy.

Why, of course, because there are so many examples of that kind of success in advanced economies.

[winton]

How about citing some.

Macedon, Rome, England, the UK, America and now soon to be china.

How about backing that up with some data.

singapore and litchenstein have per capita GDP that is well above the US. yet they cannot claim superpower status.

Polls are not proof.

they are qualitative data. I'm not sure if you will every be satisfied with it. But most political parties can't live without it.

You miss the point; a superpower must have many allies. What allies does China have?

If you count the people in china, you can say they have a ally of 1.3 billion people.

Singapore has many allies, does that make it a superpower?

The UK in their glory days was a superpower, did they have many allies? Lets not count colonial servants.

allies mean diddly when you go up against better armed adversaries which on the one hand your economy relies on and the other them being nuclear armed and your allies are not.

and then there are adversaries that mount insurgencies in their flip flops. You'll get allies for this. Even China was considered an ally in afghanistan.

[citanon]

they are qualitative data.

[Doktor]

Under strict conditions and guidance from credible institutions like the IMF et al, Its the closest thing we have for comparing GDP where there are too many economic mechanisms which make comparison of GDP at current exchange rates unrealistic to what is actually happening on the ground.

You have to consider that if I can live in one country for $100 dollars a day and live equally well for $10 a day in another, then there is a distortion you have to take into account. The same applies to defense, finance and infrastruture etc.

Thanks to globalization and stock exchanges this is impossible. Even the Warsaw block countries couldn't sustain it, and they had abundance of food and building materials. It's only a matter of time when market prices will hit those "freezing' the prices. And the later it comes the bigger the hit.

To put it in other words you can't have same quality of life in terms of commodities anywhere.

Let me put it in a plastic example for you. The average salary here is $500. Say you have $2000 salary, here and in Switzerland, would you live better here? No.
You will get worse class food products for the buck, worse protection, more corruption, worse roads...

[zraver]

The UK in their glory days was a superpower, did they have many allies? Lets not count colonial servants.

Depending on the era...

Napoleonic- UK, Russia, German States, Austrian Empire, Portugal, Spanish Guerrillas

WWI- US, France, Russia, Belgium, Serbia, Italy, Romania

WWII- US, France, Norway, Belgium, USSR, Turkey, Italy, well every country that singed the UN charter....

allies mean diddly when you go up against better armed adversaries which on the one hand your economy relies on and the other them being nuclear armed and your allies are not.

And you base this on what real world examples? The only existing real world example never actually came to blows- USSR ,massive great big military and nukes vs NATO. Guess what, USSR still fit into history's trash bin. I mean minus the nukes part we could look at the Franco-German situation of 1940. The British and the Belgians sure were not able to do much to save France. But counter point would be Waterloo- an allied force crushed France.

To turn their population around on a dime is as easy as it was when they introduce the one child policy.

No, even if they were to mandate a 2 child policy (population replacement) thy could not change it on a dime. They started the policy in 1979, a entire generation has been wasted. The bulk of the people in China who can have kids now are children born under the one child policy. That means there are simply not enough fertile wombs to reverse course. Even if you enslaved women and made them all have 3 or more kids, you still need decades before you start showing results. In the mean time the rest of China is growing old.

[winton]

Let me put it in a plastic example for you. The average salary here is $500. Say you have $2000 salary, here and in Switzerland, would you live better here? No.
You will get worse class food products for the buck, worse protection, more corruption, worse roads...

Depends on my purchasing power.

corruption and roads affects purchasing power as it adds to cost of goods sold.

[winton]

In the mean time the rest of China is growing old.

So is everywhere else, except with china its economy is growing at an unprecedented rates.

according to your thesis, it should be dying a quick death.

[Doktor]

Depends on my purchasing power.

corruption and roads affects purchasing power as it adds to cost of goods sold.

Well over here you can buy more bread, water and what not then in Switzerland. Wasn't that what PPP is for?

[winton]

Well over here you can buy more bread, water and what not then in Switzerland. Wasn't that what PPP is for?

what about energy? fuel? to get to work and heat the home
lunch at the cafe?
Cost of doing business?
regulatory requirements and fees?
cost of education for my kids?
clothing?

How much is a big mac in Macedonia?

[Doktor]

*Reads back*

Wasn't you who said PPP is a good measure?

[winton]

*Reads back*

Wasn't you who said PPP is a good measure?

yes. but I think you're on the wrong context with your follow up. Its a good measure for GDP comparison.

I'm just trying to ascertain your purchasing power in macedonia to see how it measures up with switzerland. both examples you have raised.

[Doktor]

What's in PPP basket?

[zraver]

So is everywhere else, except with china its economy is growing at an unprecedented rates.

according to your thesis, it should be dying a quick death.

I agree that a lot of countries are aging, some dangerously so (Japan, France, Germany) but the US has a couple of advantages. First, we take in a lot of immigrants that help to off set the boomers leaving the work force. Second, our boomer generation predates China's one child policy so we will leave the age problem sooner.

China will be dying a quick death... Look at the number of workers over time projections. By 2100 the working population of China wont be much bigger than the working population of the US but its elderly population will be more than double.

As for China's economy growing at unprecedented rates... Its not sustainable and already slowing down. The amount of social disruption and environmental damage has created a bill that has to be paid. Already there are massive bubbles that are inflating towards bursting points, riots of disgruntled workers, rampant corruption.... China has about zero chance of surpassing the US even if the US makes major mistakes and china never makes another one. The only thing that can bring down the US is our own debt.