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  1. #17566
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    How are you doing, Colonel?

    Isn't it inevitable that a clash would occur between a rising power and an established power somewhere in the future? How well, differences are managed so that it doesn't lead to a conflict remains to be seen.
    US and France never fought a war even though Mexico was a French colony at one point. China and the US already fought 2 wars, Korea and Vietnam. The US fought Russia during WWI and skirmishes in both Korea and Vietnam. So those already have come to past.

    However, if I take your meaning as to your question, have rising powers and established powers always fought wars of national survival (because that's the only way nukes would be used), then history is full of examples where this have not been the case.

  2. #17567
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    US and France never fought a war even though Mexico was a French colony at one point.
    Except for the Quasi-War.
    "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

  3. #17568
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Isn't it inevitable that a clash would occur between a rising power and an established power somewhere in the future? How well, differences are managed so that it doesn't lead to a conflict remains to be seen.
    Britain not fighting the US in the 19th century despite numerous instances that Britain would have won. That is one notable exception

    Venuezuela 1894, they let the Americans have their way there.

    Britain carefully avoided these potential clashes and continued to do so over half a century which is pretty remarkable.

    Mind boggling even. Somehow by mid 19th c they know the Americans will be dominant in the future. Future means 50+ years later. Or its something else. But they studiously avoid armed conflicts with the US in that century.

    They actually helped the US in some conflicts as well. Phillipines in the late 1890's.

    Finished off the Spanish fleet in a few hours and let the Americans take over.


    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    ^ There is no term as 'Thuthdide". Thucydides Trap - yes, many have written about it. It fits the present world scenario more than anything else. US vs China. Who wins? Is absolute. How will they win? Which way? Trade? War? Psychological effects that breaks up land-masses? I know there is a war coming, even though the good Colonel probably wouldn't agree with me. What happens to all of us during the course of that war, and after is the question. Oh, and Russia will sit out initially. I hope you didn't take to heart my last joke. It was meant to be a joke.
    I don't forsee such a conflict happening unless by accident and i mean both walk into it eyes closed. Unlikely.

    Imperial Japan & Hitler's Germany had an ideology that dictated others have to be kept down for them to rise. China has no such ideology and isn't going to get one in the future.

    China isn't in the business of exporting revolution.

    CPEC and OBOR means countries can be in debt to China but are all sovereign. So what happens if one of them says we're not repaying the debt and China can get lost.

    Does China land marines in that country soon after ?

    No, because if anyone stiffs China out of debt their debt ratings will crash through the floor. They become a bigger credit risk and borrowing rates from others will be very high. No such global rating system existed in the past. If a country got bilked it became necesary to make an example of the defaulter so others did not get similar ideas. Not necessary these days.

    What are the other scenarios ? its not like there are lands to go and occupy like in the colonial days. There is Antartica but nothing else.

    China might nibble land of its neighbours but going further and establishing military outposts that will upset the existing power structures is unlikely.

    So both will continue to avoid conflict. Have clear red lines which the other will respect.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 27 Dec 19, at 15:38.

  4. #17569
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    ^ I can live with your and the colonel's arguments for now. Some good thoughts there.

    I am trying to think where is Russia in all of these, and what's Putin plan.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

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  5. #17570
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    ^ I can live with your and the colonel's arguments for now. Some good thoughts there.

    I am trying to think where is Russia in all of these, and what's Putin plan.
    Swing state. King maker. Like HD Gowda or how #3 (that too a small #3) ends up stealing the show from bigger players. Same plan.

    Americans harping on about Russia successfully interfering in their election makes Putin look good. Plays well with his people.

    Russia's geography means it will always be relevant and China isn't going to over run Siberia or Russia will do to China what it did with Nixon. For Russia to hold on to that geography its people have to be willing. This means only a strong man can hold Russia together. Minimum approval rate of 65% required. Any thing less is an invitation to a civil war. Russian history has shown us that twice a century the Russian people rise up, trash their govt and destroy their country. When is the next time ?

    For now Russia plays along with China but not willingly.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 27 Dec 19, at 16:25.

  6. #17571
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Britain not fighting the US in the 19th century despite numerous instances that Britain would have won. That is one notable exception

    Venuezuela 1894, they let the Americans have their way there.

    Britain carefully avoided these potential clashes and continued to do so over half a century which is pretty remarkable.

    Mind boggling even. Somehow by mid 19th c they know the Americans will be dominant in the future. Future means 50+ years later. Or its something else. But they studiously avoid armed conflicts with the US in that century.

    They actually helped the US in some conflicts as well. Phillipines in the late 1890's.

    Finished off the Spanish fleet in a few hours and let the Americans take over.




    I don't forsee such a conflict happening unless by accident and i mean both walk into it eyes closed. Unlikely.

    Imperial Japan & Hitler's Germany had an ideology that dictated others have to be kept down for them to rise. China has no such ideology and isn't going to get one in the future.

    China isn't in the business of exporting revolution.

    CPEC and OBOR means countries can be in debt to China but are all sovereign. So what happens if one of them says we're not repaying the debt and China can get lost.

    Does China land marines in that country soon after ?

    No, because if anyone stiffs China out of debt their debt ratings will crash through the floor. They become a bigger credit risk and borrowing rates from others will be very high. No such global rating system existed in the past. If a country got bilked it became necesary to make an example of the defaulter so others did not get similar ideas. Not necessary these days.


    What are the other scenarios ? its not like there are lands to go and occupy like in the colonial days. There is Antartica but nothing else.

    China might nibble land of its neighbours but going further and establishing military outposts that will upset the existing power structures is unlikely.

    So both will continue to avoid conflict. Have clear red lines which the other will respect.
    Not quite.
    If China buys debt (at a price) that others won’t, it means the borrowers are out of (affordable) options.

    If a debt holder demands certain actions, and the borrower refuses, the threat to sell off the debt “unless” will have already driven down the value of that debt. Selling it would (a) allow the borrower to repay (buy back) debt very cheaply; and (b) result in a very large loss to the one making threats / selling.

    But, if there is a default, odds are the defaulter will have trouble finding new sources of capital . . . UNLESS it is strategic, i.e., a chance to flip a China ally. Embarassing the enemy is always worth a few bob.
    Trust me?
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  7. #17572
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    Not quite.
    If China buys debt (at a price) that others won’t, it means the borrowers are out of (affordable) options.

    If a debt holder demands certain actions, and the borrower refuses, the threat to sell off the debt “unless” will have already driven down the value of that debt. Selling it would (a) allow the borrower to repay (buy back) debt very cheaply; and (b) result in a very large loss to the one making threats / selling.
    You're referring to buying debt on the open market. It would be interesting to see China's exposure here and with whom. Does not get much commentary.

    I'm referring to debt incurred by countries implementing projects under OBOR.

    But, if there is a default, odds are the defaulter will have trouble finding new sources of capital . . . UNLESS it is strategic, i.e., a chance to flip a China ally. Embarassing the enemy is always worth a few bob.
    Do you know of any examples from recent memory ?

    Compare with the late 70's when they loan to the Paks to build the Karakoram Highway. Paks are unable to repay. It's ends up being gifted to Pakistan. A number of Chinese workers died in the construction of that highway. I can't imagine them being as generous today.

    China being generous was more common in the good old days when China was more red than mercantilist that it is these days. I don't see many examples of forgiving debt without strings attached. They usually want something else.

    My point, defaulting to China means others won't lend or at higher rates than China did. This acts as a deterrent not to default in the first place or settle it in a manner that does not spook the global finance community.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 27 Dec 19, at 21:37.

  8. #17573
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    What are the other scenarios ?
    We’re speculating, so no recent examples.
    Trust me?
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  9. #17574
    Resident Curmudgeon Military Professional Gun Grape's Avatar
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    Those evil Aussies

    https://metro.co.uk/2020/01/13/itv-n...oala-12050955/

    watch the video
    Human Scum. Proud Never Trumper

  10. #17575
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    The animals are very friendly in Australia : D

  11. #17576
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gun Grape View Post
    Big Fella joyously posted this on Facebook. We had a good giggle.
    “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
    Mark Twain

  12. #17577
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Fiat in the 50s, sans doors, roof.
    Attached Images Attached Images  
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  13. #17578
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    I killed the "cult of 40" and it won't be making a comeback. 20? Fuck yeah! 30? Alright! 50? The new 25? Okay.

    Next time 32 it, 24 it, 10 it, 56 it but don't 40 it. And take that blurry muffle with you.

  14. #17579
    Resident Curmudgeon Military Professional Gun Grape's Avatar
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    I'm reading about all the different countries pulling their citizens out of the infection zone of the coronavirus. All I can think is "isn't this how every bad virus horror movie starts?"
    Human Scum. Proud Never Trumper

  15. #17580
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    ^ World War Z, wasn't that bad.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

    Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain!

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