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Pakistan likely to use Nuclear weapons on India "a few days" into war: US ambassador

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  • #61
    Originally posted by Doktor View Post
    What's terrorists for Pakistan is not for India and vice versa. Once they agree who the terrorists are...
    IMO, Pretty obvious to see who they are and where they are.
    Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.

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    • #62
      Originally posted by Dreadnought View Post
      Is wondering that if two different countries militaries are on Pakistans borders operating against terrorists then why isint the message getting through. Must be rocket science.
      Dread,

      That's because they still believe that one of the militaries will not be around much long and will still be willing to reign-in the other one....Always.
      Last edited by Deltacamelately; 13 Jun 11,, 14:04.
      sigpicAnd on the sixth day, God created the Field Artillery...

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      • #63
        DCL Reply

        "That's because they still believe that one of the militaries will not be around much long and will still be willing to reign-in the other one....Always."

        Major,

        If so then GHQ Rawalpindi has it half correct. We (our counter-insurgent forces) will likely be gone en toto by 2015. I highly doubt an American security presence will disappear altogether though. I do expect counter-terror elements to remain in Afghanistan or be based offshore in the Indian ocean for some undetermined time beyond 2015.

        Reigning-in the Indian military by America is problematic. India charts a highly independant foreign and nat'l security policy. It's proven largely immune to outside interference and any constraint for whatever reason attempted by America would only occur in concert with other nations. Even so such is not necessarily likely to be effective.

        GHQ Rawalpindi would be well-served to re-evaluate this premise if they believe otherwise.
        "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
        "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

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        • #64
          Originally posted by S2 View Post
          Reigning-in the Indian military by America is problematic. India charts a highly independant foreign and nat'l security policy. It's proven largely immune to outside interference and any constraint for whatever reason attempted by America would only occur in concert with other nations. Even so such is not necessarily likely to be effective.

          GHQ Rawalpindi would be well-served to re-evaluate this premise if they believe otherwise.
          Worked the last four times around or at least thats the perception i got.

          Now with nukes don't the stakes get higher.

          This is one of those things that is hard to tell, just because they did it in the past does not necessarily mean it will happen again & vice versa. As it stands if there were a 50-50 chance then both countries gain an equal advantage if not necessarily a major one.

          India has to operate immune to world opinion to secure her objectives and Pakistan has to factor that in.
          Last edited by Double Edge; 13 Jun 11,, 17:28.

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          • #65
            Double Edge Reply

            "...India has to operate immune to world opinion to secure her objectives and Pakistan has to factor that in."

            My point stands. America cannot unilaterally influence India's foreign policy and/or nat'l security decisions except in the most dire circumstance. Nor could I imagine us trying without a consensus reaching beyond our own borders.

            What that "most dire circumstance" might be eludes me. We've the means but the possible reason is beyond my comprehension. It wouldn't, btw, involve Pakistan.
            "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
            "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

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            • #66
              But AM I have a doubt.. If you are keeping your nukes to safeguard and only for your 'defence' why can't Pakistan sign a NFU policy just like India ???
              Last edited by commander; 13 Jun 11,, 22:56.

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              • #67
                Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                What's terrorists for Pakistan is not for India and vice versa. Once they agree who the terrorists are...
                But Doktor whom India consider as terrorists are considered as terrorists by most of the nations right ??? SO that might narrow down..

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                • #68
                  Originally posted by commander View Post
                  But Doktor whom India consider as terrorists are considered as terrorists by most of the nations right ??? SO that might narrow down..
                  IDK for other parts of the world, but here in 2001 the guys who were shooting on our army and cities were first called "extremists", to later become "rebels", to later become "freedom fighters" and our politicians to be forced (by those who called them extremists) to sign an agreement with them. That transition lasted for ~6 months ;) So, don't jump into conclusions.

                  I often say if the Brits won, Washington would have been a terrorist in todays books.
                  No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                  To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

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                  • #69
                    Originally posted by commander View Post
                    But AM I have a doubt.. If you are keeping your nukes to safeguard and only for your 'defence' why can't Pakistan sign a NFU policy just like India ???
                    A lot of reasons

                    1. She doesn't trust India
                    2. She doesn't trust the US
                    3. Domestic reasons.

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                    • #70
                      Originally posted by zraver View Post
                      A lot of reasons

                      1. She doesn't trust India
                      2. She doesn't trust the US
                      3. Domestic reasons.
                      No, the most primary reason. The Pakistani military does not trust it can defeat an Indian invasion.

                      The same reason why NATO never gave up first use.

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                      • #71
                        Also, couldn't India give the same reasons as well?

                        1. She doesn't trust Pakistan
                        2. She doesn't trust the US (not completely, at least)
                        3. Domestic reasons.

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                        • #72
                          Originally posted by YellowFever View Post
                          Also, couldn't India give the same reasons as well?

                          1. She doesn't trust Pakistan
                          2. She doesn't trust the US (not completely, at least)
                          3. Domestic reasons.
                          India has already signed off on a NFU policy.
                          Cow is the only animal that not only inhales oxygen, but also exhales it.
                          -Rekha Arya, Former Minister of Animal Husbandry

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                          • #73
                            Originally posted by zraver View Post
                            A lot of reasons

                            1. She doesn't trust India
                            2. She doesn't trust the US
                            3. Domestic reasons.
                            Internally whenever we talk about NFU, the question is always raised, will India not launch its nukes in a hypothetical scenario where the PA is marching on towards Delhi?

                            Every country that has nukes will use it in a doomsday scenario.

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                            • #74
                              Originally posted by YellowFever View Post
                              Also, couldn't India give the same reasons as well?
                              Originally posted by Tronic View Post
                              India has already signed off on a NFU policy.
                              Right, and that is because India trusts that the Chinese are rational players (at least as far as India is concerned), and wants to avoid a mutually ruinous arms-race while still maintaining strategic autonomy. By extension, I think, the Paks believe the Indians are irrational players, and don't mind a mutually ruinous arms-race.

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                              • #75
                                Originally posted by Tronic View Post
                                India has already signed off on a NFU policy.
                                Which we say, doesn't mean anything.

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