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Two Chinas and the Donald

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  • #16
    Originally posted by Toby View Post
    With money made from opium and the slave trade etc...I'm going back to the roots. Chinas trade imbalance back then was corrected by selling them opium. Which came from the UK and India via the east India company etc. Weird to think present day wealth has been built on slavery and drugs. Just reading that the money paid to british slave owners as recompense for freeing slaves was the equivalent of the bank bailout in 2008. This money was then invested into London banks and spread around the planet to acrue interest through commodities ,opium bring a main one in the 19th century in trade with china
    That was just a bit earlier than the Deng Xiaoping reform era ...
    Trust me?
    I'm an economist!

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    • #17
      Originally posted by DOR View Post
      That was just a bit earlier than the Deng Xiaoping reform era ...
      Lol. Just a tad....

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      • #18
        Cheered when i read this. let's not upset the Chinese, bad things happen. fear fear. Well let me be the first to welcome our new chinese overlords then.

        No?

        then turn it around and make them squirm. See what happens.

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
          Cheered when i read this. let's not upset the Chinese, bad things happen. fear fear. Well let me be the first to welcome our new chinese overlords then.

          No?

          then turn it around and make them squirm. See what happens.
          Are you deliberately trying to start a trade war?
          Do you not see any value whatsoever in letting things be?
          Trust me?
          I'm an economist!

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by DOR View Post
            Are you deliberately trying to start a trade war?
            Do you not see any value whatsoever in letting things be?
            A trade war is in nobodies interest. Least of all China. As alot of what they produce can be made elsewhere with ease. We need to balance our trade with them. An age old problem with China.... I guess opium is out of the question this time around. ....hmmm wonder what else we could sell them????

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by DOR View Post
              Are you deliberately trying to start a trade war?
              Do you not see any value whatsoever in letting things be?
              What's wrong in shaking up things now and then? Who is being conservative now?
              No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

              To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by Toby View Post
                A trade war is in nobodies interest. Least of all China. As alot of what they produce can be made elsewhere with ease. We need to balance our trade with them. An age old problem with China.... I guess opium is out of the question this time around. ....hmmm wonder what else we could sell them????
                Democracy?
                No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                  Democracy?
                  I'll leave that to the Yanks...lol

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                    Democracy?
                    I'll leave that to the Yanks...lol

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by DOR View Post
                      Are you deliberately trying to start a trade war?
                      Do you not see any value whatsoever in letting things be?
                      1)No as we have no clue what policy will be like

                      2) what is one china policy worth and where is that getting us in terms of China's behaviour? help in reining in NK that wants to build intercontinental missiles which can carry nuclear payloads. Being able to strike Japan isn't enough, NK need to cross the pacific ocean now it seems. All attempts to engage with this client state of China since Bush have failed. Both two term presidents.

                      The last administration went with G2 in the first term and then volte faced into pivot for the second. This one is going in challenging. Who else is going to do it. Maybe the terms of engagement with China are looking to be revised. They always get what they want but are coming up short.

                      I see this as an attempt at hard ball opening bid.

                      The gameplan from the little i've seen looks like manage Russia, challenge China.

                      Am not looking at this from a trade angle rather a geopolitical one.
                      Last edited by Double Edge; 19 Jan 17,, 19:20.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Toby View Post
                        A trade war is in nobodies interest. Least of all China. As alot of what they produce can be made elsewhere with ease. We need to balance our trade with them. An age old problem with China.... I guess opium is out of the question this time around. ....hmmm wonder what else we could sell them????
                        Umm, have you looked at the structure of international trade today? You can't really buy a lot of what China currently exports to us Americans (not at the Chinese prices, anyways). Sure, increasing U.S. exports by 2020 by $100 billion to $200 billion is doable, but we aren't going to balance the gap for a very long time.

                        There's no way to balance, the question is whether the deficit is 33% or 10% of the total trade turnover.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                          1)No as we have no clue what policy will be like

                          2) what is one china policy worth and where is that getting us in terms of China's behaviour? help in reining in NK that wants to build intercontinental missiles which can carry nuclear payloads. Being able to strike Japan isn't enough, NK need to cross the pacific ocean now it seems. All attempts to engage with this client state of China since Bush have failed. Both two term presidents.

                          The last administration went with G2 in the first term and then volte faced into pivot for the second. This one is going in challenging. Who else is going to do it. Maybe the terms of engagement with China are looking to be revised. They always get what they want but are coming up short.

                          I see this as an attempt at hard ball opening bid.

                          The gameplan from the little i've seen looks like manage Russia, challenge China.

                          Am not looking at this from a trade angle rather a geopolitical one.
                          There's no way we Americans can get the Russians to play ball geopolitically, short of replacing everyone with above the rank of O-4 (or its civilian equivalent) in their entire military-security complex (since Congress isn't going to concede anything).

                          That's the problem with that CSBA study.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            No, Toby, it isn’t easy to replace the China-based production supply chain clusters. Take it from someone who watched them develop day by day for over 35 years: you’re not going to duplicate the efficiency, reliability and security of the Pearl River Delta (for example) in the Mekong River Delta and most certainly not in the Mississippi River Delta.

                            = = = = =

                            Doktor,

                            The problem with “shaking up things now and then” is that disrupting delicate economic structures generally leads to starvation, or at least to major decreases in standards of living. Personally, I find it amoral to play around with people lives / livelihoods just to see what might happen.

                            = = = = =

                            Double Edge,

                            You seem to think that the One China policy is supposed to generate some kind of behavioral change in China (beyond Nixon’s strategic aims vis-à-vis the USSR).
                            Why is that?

                            North Korea may be highly dependent on China for food and fuel, but it is most certainly willing to forego those necessary inputs in order to retain an independent domestic and foreign policy. China knows the limits of its influence, but doesn’t want to advertise those shortcomings to the world.
                            Trust me?
                            I'm an economist!

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              DOR,

                              Disrupting delicate economic structures? Like when Nixon went to China or like when Chamberlain thought it's not wise not to upset the Germans?
                              No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                              To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by DOR View Post
                                No, Toby, it isn’t easy to replace the China-based production supply chain clusters. Take it from someone who watched them develop day by day for over 35 years: you’re not going to duplicate the efficiency, reliability and security of the Pearl River Delta (for example) in the Mekong River Delta and most certainly not in the Mississippi River Delta.

                                = = = = =
                                We've been through it...come out the other end.....tough s--t to the Chinese. It's not as if the machinery can't be move to say India or elsewhere...if it's happened here and the US it can certainly happen there. Why are the Chinese so special? Nobody else seems to be!

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