Civil War in South Africa?

[cyppok]

Been reading a bit, the mining strike and recent military on high alert etc...
This article is interesting.
Marikana miners in debt sinkhole | Business | Mining | Mail & Guardian
Basically the miners are in constant debt from company and non-company cash-loan stores. Ergo there is a treadmil of debt somewhat upon them. If we keep in mind 8.35 rands per dollar and 121 billion rands in (i assume total unsecured debt) or about 14.5 bil dollars. With 5% a month interest it does put the petal to the metal for people.

Mining customer base ensures Ubank’s healthy bottom line

One of the biggest players in the microfinance market is the Chamber of Mines and the National Union of Mineworkers’ Ubank.

The bank has 500 000 customers and is the third-largest player in this sector after African Bank and Capitec.

Formerly known as Teba Bank, Ubank is owned by a trust managed by the NUM and the chamber. It has entrenched itself in gold and platinum mining communities.

The NUM has been criticised for being out of touch with the needs of the workforce. Speaking at Lonmin’s Marikana mine a few days after the massacre, expelled ANC Youth League president Julius Malema said the workers should not associate with those who have sold them out and that the NUM had no intention to defend the workers.

Sixty percent of Ubank’s customers work in the mining industry and most of its branch network services the gold and platinum mining areas and the rural areas their customers call home.

Ubank said it was a unique banking institution driven by a social consciousness that underpinned all it does. “Responsible lending is paramount to Ubank because many of the consumers are overindebted,” it said in a statement to the M&G.

For short-term loans, the average amount lent over a year to a Ubank customer is R1 870 and the average unsecured loan amount over a 12-month period is R13 800, taken over a loan period of between 12 and 36 months.

Wondering how South Africa breaks up if this happens. Was thinking if the capes in the west seperate as a country from the rest or what. Technically the mining companies have a lot of leverage the reality is control is in the eyes of the beholder. Right now it is all a public relations from various camps to control the situation that is rapidly deteriorating.

Soldiers hand over ammo as Malema guns for Zuma | News | National | Mail & Guardian
Soldiers hand over ammo as Malema guns for Zuma
12 Sep 2012 16:50 - Nickolaus Bauer, Verashni Pillay

The soldiers gathered to hear Malema address their worries over being placed on special leave following a violent strike – despite court action in their favour.

"You have been winning court cases but the government is not prepared to listen to the courts," said Malema, who was flanked by his spokesperson Floyd Shivambu and suspended youth league secretary general Sindiso Magaqa.

Malema told soldiers that South Africa was a "banana republic" that does not follow the rule of law.

"No one is above the law, not the military, not the presidency and not Parliament. Every court decision must be respected," Malema told over 100 soldiers in civilian dress at the Lenasia Recreation Centre, south of Johannesburg.

"We must respect the courts but the leadership of this banana republic disrespects the courts."

He referenced the Democratic Alliance's (DA) battle to get hold of the transcripts of the controversial "spy tapes", which the National Prosecuting Authority had claimed were the basis of its decision not to prosecute President Jacob Zuma.

"We don't like the DA, we don't like Helen Zille," said Malema. "But she has won a court case which gave them 14 days. Now [it's] almost a year and they are not complying with that court order."

Contempt of court
The DA has lodged a court application against the NPA for being in contempt of court after refusing to hand over a record of its decision relating to the dropping of corruption charges against Zuma.

Malema continued to build a careful case against the government and particularly Zuma as its head, pointing out the legality of his challenge at every step.

"We will never engage in any mutiny," he shouted to an enthusiastic audience. "Yes, we admit we don't like the current leadership but we will use democratic methods to unseat them."

He went on to reference the education department's failure to meet a court injunction to get textbooks to Limpopo learners, effectively conflating his own internal disciplinary problems with the ANC and that of the soldiers' battle against the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) as part of a larger struggle by citizens against the government.

SANDF members were placed on special leave after they staged an aggressive protest in Pretoria in 2009 over poor salaries and adverse working conditions. Tshwane police used rubber bullets and teargas to disperse around 1 000 soldiers after they trashed surrounding streets, damaged cars and set a military vehicle alight.

The department tried to institute disciplinary procedures against them but was interdicted from doing so by the North Gauteng High Court in Pretoria, after an application to halt the procedure by the South African National Defence Union (Sandu).

New mass strike hits Gold Fields mine in South Africa - Yahoo! News South AfricaBasically the spreading of lonmin amplats (platinum producer) strike to the gold mining sector. With 15000 workers for gold mines now striking as well.
Military on

Yes, I know its my forte to go on a separation, break-up spree but you have to admit that it seems to be heading in at least if not in that direction some sort of a political power shift. My guess it will go to multiple parties or dictatorial with country splitting along power lines. Ergo if you control something on the ground and can get a private army going to enforce your will that will be the objective.

[cyppok]

Union warns of complete transport shutdown - Times LIVE

Union warns of complete transport shutdown
GRAEME HOSKEN | 17 September, 2012 00:09

The SA Transport and Allied Workers' Union (Satawu) has expressed "grave concern" that its strike for higher wages would be sabotaged.

According to Satawu spokesman Vincent Masoga, a breakaway association with, it is believed, ties to Julius Malema had recently been formed.

"These people, who are working on members' frustrations, want to create anarchy," he said.

Masoga said Satawu's members wanted the same success as workers in the mining sector.

"They will not allow us to budge on their demand of a 12% salary increase.

"The mining strike will engulf [the transport sector] if companies do not try harder in the negotiations.

"All transport - fuel, coal, food, steel, concrete, cash transport - will grind to a halt.

"Nothing will be loaded or off-loaded, with shop shelves and petrol pumps going empty. This is one of the biggest crises to face South Africa,'' he said.

The strike is due to take place next Monday if wage negotiations remain deadlocked.

Mboniso Sigonyela, a Transnet spokesman, said the company had not received information about a planned strike and was not aware of plans to disrupt business.

According to a Medupi engineering specialist, Malema is about to visit strikers at the multibillion-rand power station, the construction of which is crucial to the country's power supply. - Additional reporting by TJ Strydom

Transit strike and probably a power strike. I am wondering how fast the food supply breaks down ergo shipment from warehouse to sales point.

[gunnut]

Is South Africa better off now being governed by black South Africans?

Is it better to have a good, stable life being governed by a ruling class of different skin color? Or being in misery by the hands of your own kind?

Some say it's better to die on your feet than live on your knees. But then again some say there is no hope without life.

Is being oppressed by your own kind better than being oppressed by someone else?

If your own kind is as bad as some foreign devil, what does that say about your own kind?

[Parihaka]

Is South Africa better off now being governed by black South Africans?

Is it better to have a good, stable life being governed by a ruling class of different skin color? Or being in misery by the hands of your own kind?

Some say it's better to die on your feet than live on your knees. But then again some say there is no hope without life.

Is being oppressed by your own kind better than being oppressed by someone else?

If your own kind is as bad as some foreign devil, what does that say about your own kind?

Black South Africans did not have a good stable life being governed by white South Africans.

[gunnut]

Black South Africans did not have a good stable life being governed by white South Africans.

Are they better off now or worse off now?

[observer7]

Are they better off now or worse off now?

I don't think it's that simple. Since the end of Apartheid, there is now a black middle class which is not part of the ruling elites but belong to the professional working force eg. doctors, accountants etc. They have definitely seen an improvement in their lives.
Mandela has still the greatest respect from the majority of the people but the ANC presidents that have followed him are not held in such high regard because of their inability to deliver the ''economic miracle'' nearly 2 decades after the ANC came to power. The poor I guess have not seen the improvements in their lives that they were hoping for.

In many ways like a democracy its quite similar to the USA. The poor hedged their bets with the promises of politicians that they elected only to see those same politicians unable to deliver the economic benefits.

[Parihaka]

Are they better off now or worse off now?

Better in most areas, certainly no worse off overall.
South African living standards 'on the up' - SouthAfrica.info
Education in South Africa - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
World Development Indicators and Global Development Finance - Google Public Data Explorer

[cyppok]

Zuma calls in army, where needed | News24

In the last 6 months the Rand droped from 7.6 to 8.3 or so, about 8%.

Cosatu vows e-tolls revolt | Fin24

Johannesburg - Cosatu threatened mass action on Thursday against e-tolling in Gauteng after the Constitutional Court overturned an interdict to halt the project.

"We are going to resist it with every power we have," Congress of SA Trade Unions (Cosatu) general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi told reporters on the sidelines of Cosatu's 11th national congress in Midrand.

"Cosatu remains absolutely determined to oppose the tolls at the street level. The mobilisation... is not over.

"The call we want to make to workers and all of the people who supported us in opposition to the e-tolls is not to drop your guards. We need your energy and your unity more than (at) any other time before," he said.

The gov't is a bit hungry for revenue because foreign investment is unattractive due to BEE compliance ergo 25% must be given for free to gov't cronies in essence.

My feeling is there is a spending spiral and being dependent on very rapidly fluctuating commodity prices while paying slowly fluctuating infrastructure costs (that are inflated by vapid corruption) will do the trick.
Metal demand is down, mining output will shrink and automation will not occur due to capital investment into growing tax rates is not attractive. Add the shrinking electricity capacity and constrained transport system which I assume has not been capitally bolstered, ergo new lines & trains. When monopoly sheltered businesses like the SAA (airline) Eskom (energy) are projecting losses for the foreseeable future I don't think that future happens.

Let me explain what I think happens. When the economy shatters you get the gangland effect of corruption breeding small economic warlords whom control and contain all the cashflow that still exists or passes through their territory. As these amalgamations network they increase violence but sooner or later someone dominates. At that point they want to be top dog ergo a government representative to not just de-facto control things but also de-jure. Here lies the schism, assimilation of these into government won't occur, because generally these are the people that are not connected anyways. Little private armies will find a way of working together to enforce little private fiefdoms that contest the actual sovereign fiefdom. How it unfolds is still a mystery though.

[Ray]

In short, all this Uhuru stuff is failing?

If so, why?

[Minskaya]

South Africa also has a horrible rape problem with an average of 154 rapes a day... more than double the rate in India.

South African girl's gang-rape and murder triggers political outrage | World news | guardian.co.uk

[Skywatcher]

WRT to the OP, South Africa isn't going to fall apart because the establishment has enough support (and all the money and guns) to stop Malenma or anyone else from doing anything disruptive.

[Mihais]

Dude,I had wolfish grin reading that.ANC does not want ''anything'' to stop.They WANT it to happen.

[Skywatcher]

Dude,I had wolfish grin reading that.ANC does not want ''anything'' to stop.They WANT it to happen.

The moneyed ANC apparatchiks have control over all the guns, helicopters and tanks.

If they want "anything" to happen, its so they can send their troops/policemen out and kill off what's left of the Julius Malemna faction. That will probably kill off image South Africa has of being a democracy, but Zuma can count on the black middle class/whites/coloureds/Asians to support him.

It'd just be like watching the Neo Maoists/New Left trying to stage a revolt in China and the CMC then calls in the PLA and PAP. There is only one certain outcome.

[cyppok]

The moneyed ANC apparatchiks have control over all the guns, helicopters and tanks.

If they want "anything" to happen, its so they can send their troops/policemen out and kill off what's left of the Julius Malemna faction. That will probably kill off image South Africa has of being a democracy, but Zuma can count on the black middle class/whites/coloureds/Asians to support him.

It'd just be like watching the Neo Maoists/New Left trying to stage a revolt in China and the CMC then calls in the PLA and PAP. There is only one certain outcome.

Bigger than the army: South Africa’s private security forces | StratRisks
Bigger than the army: South Africa's private security forces - CNN.com
"Bigger than the army: South Africa’s private security forces"

And that's what has fueled the boom in the country's private security industry, crime experts say. There are nearly 9,000 companies and 400,000 registered active private security guards. That's more than the police and army combined, according to South African officials.

"The security industry is bigger than what it has ever been in South Africa," says Zinn. "I think the growth in the industry is definitely attributed to the fact that, let's call it a weak policing or ineffective policing, and it created the opportunity for private individuals to move into the market."

The reality is that South Africa is very raw material export oriented and if a Civil War happened there are plenty of ports for a black market raw material funded armies to roam and stake out turf via either corporate or personal dominance by a group that controls the flow of money. The attempt at regulating this is the last hurrah since the Army and other agencies were eviscerated both logistically, operationally, and simply de-funded via corruption.

The South African government claims that it’s an industry that threatens national security and is determined to tighten its regulation. “A very dangerous situation arises if you have a security industry that outstrips both your police and your army and there is completely no regulation of that industry,” says Jenni Irish-Qhobosheane, the head of the Civilian Secretariat for Police.

“I think the public can find themselves in situations where, basically, they are put at the mercy of private security companies who are unprofessional,” she adds.

(and the reverse is true in essence).

My feeling is if for some reason a province(businesses in it) decided to stop paying taxes and simply dared the government to enforce it while using a private army to separate you could get a very real split and disintegration of the country.

I expect the SHTF moment to occur when white maize production drops below self-sufficiency, then marginal prices detonate the social structure which is already under severe strain. I figure a few years left maybe two-three, perhaps five you they have a few good harvests.

http://www.fin24.com/Economy/Farms-j...0-000-20130210
Perhaps sooner.

[Skywatcher]

Bigger than the army: South Africa’s private security forces | StratRisks
Bigger than the army: South Africa's private security forces - CNN.com
"Bigger than the army: South Africa’s private security forces"


The reality is that South Africa is very raw material export oriented and if a Civil War happened there are plenty of ports for a black market raw material funded armies to roam and stake out turf via either corporate or personal dominance by a group that controls the flow of money. The attempt at regulating this is the last hurrah since the Army and other agencies were eviscerated both logistically, operationally, and simply de-funded via corruption.


(and the reverse is true in essence).

My feeling is if for some reason a province(businesses in it) decided to stop paying taxes and simply dared the government to enforce it while using a private army to separate you could get a very real split and disintegration of the country.

I expect the SHTF moment to occur when white maize production drops below self-sufficiency, then marginal prices detonate the social structure which is already under severe strain. I figure a few years left maybe two-three, perhaps five you they have a few good harvests.

Farm job cuts could grow to 200 000 | Fin24
Perhaps sooner.

This is a new record, even for you. Private security companies don't fight military and paramilitary police forces!

And what would the provincial leaders get by declaring secession or whatever garbage. The current system works very well for them, if you actually bothered to read up on South African economics instead of regurgitating nonsense about agricultural demand and supply, along with the garbage in the China economics thread.