Pakistan influence on Taliban commanders helped Afghan breakthrough

[Agnostic Muslim]

It's only recently that they've existed in fact though, and I'd predict a growth industry in this area. As regards 'TTP', see below.

The existence of TTP sanctuaries in Afghanistan is not a recent occurrence, even if certain members on this particular forum are only now starting to acknowledge it:

The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) – a banned conglomerate of dozens of militant outfits – has admitted for the first time that they are using the Afghan soil as a springboard for launching attacks on Pakistani security forces.

The acknowledgment gives credence to Islamabad’s claims that the TTP has found safe havens in Afghanistan’s eastern provinces bordering Pakistan.

Pakistani officials believe that the top TTP cadres – including Maulana Fazlullah, Maulvi Faqir and Waliur Rehman – and hundreds of their loyalists had fled a string of military offensives in Swat, and Bajaur and Mohmand agencies since 2008 to seek shelter in Afghanistan.

“Maulana Fazlullah is leading TTP attacks from Afghanistan’s border provinces and is in touch with fighters in Malakand division,” Sirajuddin, the spokesperson for TTP’s Malakand chapter, told The Express Tribune by phone from an undisclosed location. “We regularly move across the porous border,” he added.

He claimed that Fazlullah was commanding over a thousand diehard fighters.

Contrary to Pakistani claims, Sirajuddin, however, said that the TTP hierarchy and fighters fled to Afghanistan in recent months and now they are settled in the country’s border regions.

Until this month the administration of President Hamid Karzai was in denial about TTP’s bases in Afghanistan. However, Kabul has now conceded the presence of ‘some TTP militants’ in the border regions, according to a senior Pakistani official.

TTP acknowledges their sanctuaries on Afghan soil ~ SPY EYES

[Parihaka]

How exactly would, as OoE suggested, the NA go 'Genghis Khan' without blurring the distinction between non-combatants and combatants?

Unlike NATO, Saleh was able to build an excellent intelligence service not just within Afghanistan but also in Pakistan, so much so he was able to pinpoint OBL within 8 miles of his actual location. I don't believe Saleh is the only smart man in Afghanistan. I also don't believe in the Genghis Khan scenario of mass slaughter indiscriminately, but I agree there will be a large number of targeted killings on both sides of the borders. I will allow there may be some wholesale slaughters as an example.

[Parihaka]

The existence of TTP sanctuaries in Afghanistan is not a recent occurrence, even if certain members on this particular forum are only now starting to acknowledge it:

Contrary to Pakistani claims, Sirajuddin, however, said that the TTP hierarchy and fighters fled to Afghanistan in recent months and now they are settled in the country’s border regions.

Uh huh.
I will certainly agree to the notion that attacks from Afghanistan into Pakistan will increase and Pakistans claims are coming true.

[Agnostic Muslim]

Uh huh.
I will certainly agree to the notion that attacks from Afghanistan into Pakistan will increase and Pakistans claims are coming true.

That particular article was from June 2012, Qari Zia-ur-Rehman (who played a major role in fighting the Pakistani military operation in Bajaur) was already operating out of Afghanistan against Pakistani troops in 2008/2009:

A top Taliban and al Qaeda commander who operates on both sides of the Afghan-Pakistani border denied reports that he was killed during airstrikes in the Mohmand tribal agency and claimed that the overall leader of the Pakistani Taliban is also still alive.

Qari Zia Rahman, a commander who operates in Pakistan's Bajaur tribal agency as well as in Afghanistan's Nuristan and Kunar provinces, confirmed he was alive in a telephone call with a Pakistani newspaper.

"I think you would now believe that I am alive as I am personally speaking to you," Qari Zia told a reporter from The News.

...

Qari Zia also said that he will continue to operate on both sides of the Afghan-Pakistani border, but will concentrate his efforts in eastern Afghanistan for now.

"I will continue jihad on both sides of the border but my priority would be fighting against the occupation forces in Afghanistan," he said.

...
Read more: Taliban commander Qari Zia Rahman denies reports of his death - The Long War Journal

Like I said, the existence of TTP sanctuaries in Afghanistan is not a new development.

[Agnostic Muslim]

I will allow there may be some wholesale slaughters as an example.

Which have occurred several times in the past, perpetrated by both the Taliban and the Northern Alliance warlords - nothing new to the players in the region, as I pointed out earlier.

[Parihaka]

Which have occurred several times in the past, perpetrated by both the Taliban and the Northern Alliance warlords - nothing new to the players in the region, as I pointed out earlier.

Well, looks like we're all in agreement. Who would have thunk?

[Blademaster]

What? To go midevil on the Taliban? There's a bloodbath coming and everyone knows it. I don't see an end to this. Once the ANA finishes off the Taliban, it will turn on itself.

I disagree with your assessment. ANA can defeat Taliban on its territory but it can never truly eradicate or finish them off because Taliban have sanctuary in Pakistan and ANA are no match for the PA even with American help. As long as the Taliban have sanctuary, the Taliban can outlast the ANA because the Americans and NATO will get tired of supporting ANA and without support, ANA will wither and die or be a shell of itself or destroy itself like it happened after Moscow stopped supporting ANA in 1993-94. Taliban can't retake the country as long as American is against Taliban. The day America is no longer against Taliban is the day that they can start taking over Afghanistan.

To truly finish off Taliban, NATO has to go inside Pakistan ala Cambodia/Laos style and eradicate the sanctuaries.

[Double Edge]

"Fighting in Afghanistan could be stopped "in weeks" if Pakistan told the Taliban to end the insurgency, the head of the Afghan army has told the BBC.

Heh, i bet the Paks sincerely wish they had the power to do just that.

What is attributed to unwillingness is actually weakness and even fear. TTP assasinates BB and its the Americans that press the button on Baitullah Mehsud. The Paks cannot be seen to do it.

I've not figured out the angle the afghan general is pushing here, maybe just getting the Paks to squirm.

Gen Sher Mohammad Karimi said Pakistan controlled and gave shelter to Taliban leaders, deliberately unleashing fighters on Afghanistan."

And the Paks fear the Afghans will do the same with the TTP. Earlier, OOE showed the Paks cannot effectively police their western border. They can't tie down tens of thousands of their troops there for this. No way. Paks know a thing or two about instigating insurgencies. They do not want to be on the receiving end.

Hmm, Pakistan in a near state of war with another of its neighbours

and now Pakistans very real fear that the tail bunnies will turn against them almost completely when with the withdrawl of NATO forces the TB will have a safe home in Helmund
Role Reversal: Pakistan Fears - WSJ.com

Don't think the Taliban will turn on the Paks, its just that the Paks have limited leverage on them. This is proven by the fact they would not touch them and gave them sanctuary. Remember, the Paks do not touch anything that increases domestic instability.

The Taliban could tell the Paks to take a hike and this is where the Paks don't want to go as it will increase Pashtun nationalism. Bring it out in the open, unnecessarily.

If the Taliban know that they are in for a carnage and that they need these talks to go through, why would they do these dick moves? Does it not make sense to enter a truce at least while the talks are happening? Or is this a matter of bravado?

Sources for funding. The Taliban want a piece of the action. They are the spoilers. Taliban is supposed to lay down their arms in exchange for what. They want something to go back to. The Paks want to send the Taliban home. They want them out of Pakistan where they will be somebody else's problem.

This is all just good old fashioned haggling :)

Ideal outcome for the Paks is the Taliban get into politics and demographics gives them seats in the south. Taliban does not have to win just have a voice if they are in the opposition. Taliban need to return to Afghanistan, they are useless, even a liability for the Paks in Quetta. In this way the Paks have a buffer of sorts from the rest of Afghanistan.

From this i conclude that ALL actors have a primary interest in stability of Afghanistan and not civil war. Civil war is a last resort if everything else fails.

[Officer of Engineers]

I disagree with your assessment. ANA can defeat Taliban on its territory but it can never truly eradicate or finish them off because Taliban have sanctuary in Pakistan and ANA are no match for the PA even with American help. As long as the Taliban have sanctuary, the Taliban can outlast the ANA because the Americans and NATO will get tired of supporting ANA and without support, ANA will wither and die or be a shell of itself or destroy itself like it happened after Moscow stopped supporting ANA in 1993-94. Taliban can't retake the country as long as American is against Taliban. The day America is no longer against Taliban is the day that they can start taking over Afghanistan.

To truly finish off Taliban, NATO has to go inside Pakistan ala Cambodia/Laos style and eradicate the sanctuaries.

You're not understanding. This is not military slaughter I'm talking about. These are Afghans. They don't want a stand up fight and steamroll each other. They are going after the women and children and the Taliban women and children are a lot easier to target than ANA women and children.

[Officer of Engineers]

Only if the funds run out.

The funds run out if the election next year is perceived to be unfair.

Otherwise there is no reason for it at least not yet.

The likes of Dostum are the norm, not the exception and we have far more of them lining up on our side than the Taliban has on theirs.

[Blademaster]

You're not understanding. This is not military slaughter I'm talking about. These are Afghans. They don't want a stand up fight and steamroll each other. They are going after the women and children and the Taliban women and children are a lot easier to target than ANA women and children.

Instead of killing them, why can't they adopt the Taliban women and children? That would be far more effective in destroying the Taliban.

[Officer of Engineers]

If I had my way, I send them all to school to get a grade 3 education so that they can at least read but it is their war soon and they will fight it the way they want to fight it. It will be blood vengeance up and down the entire country.

[lemontree]

Like I said, the existence of TTP sanctuaries in Afghanistan is not a new development.

AM the difference is that the TTP are not getting support from the Afghan govt, whereas the Taliban are a proxy for the ISI/PA.

[anil]

Coming soon to a theater in afpak:

+The partition of afghanistan
and

+The durrand line strikes back

घर का भेदी लंका ढाए
pashtun is vibhishan
afghanistan is lanka

[Agnostic Muslim]

There was a similar report on this a few months ago that I posted here: http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/cen...-pakistan.html

Karzai wants US to protect Afghanistan from Pakistan

*NYT reports Afghan president also wants US to take direct military action against Taliban havens on Pakistani soil

KABUL: Afghan President Hamid Karzai wants a mutual security pact that would compel the United States to protect Afghanistan against Pakistan, and, possibly, even take direct military action against Taliban havens on Pakistani soil, the New York Times quoted Afghan sources as saying.

According to the newspaper, it was not until after the meeting of top security officials had ended – as Karzai stood in a corridor with a handful of advisers – that his frustration with the United States boiled over. Washington’s attempt to open peace talks with the Taliban in Qatar, he fumed, was “in reality an attempt to cut him out and make an American deal with the Taliban”, according to one of the officials who saw the outburst.

The Taliban’s sudden willingness to talk in June looked like a potential coup for American diplomacy. The result has been anything but — and not just because the Taliban have done more grandstanding than negotiating since opening their Qatar office. Karzai quickly called off Afghan participation in the talks. And now, two weeks later, persuading him to restore his delegation would most likely take more than the United States would be willing to deliver, according to Afghans familiar with his thinking.

He wants a firm commitment on the number of American troops that would stay in Afghanistan past next year, and a lead role in peace efforts, the Afghans said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss diplomatic matters.

All of that is rooted in one of Karzai’s core beliefs, according to those who know him: that the central challenge facing his government is not the Taliban insurgency, but rather in bringing the United States around to his way of thinking.

“Assurances that America will take care of us will no longer do for the president,” said the Afghan official who witnessed the president’s outburst. To move forward, Karzai wants “certainties”.

The developments around the Qatar peace opening seemed to be ripped directly from Karzai’s personal nightmare script: that his government would be marginalised in Washington’s endgame in Afghanistan.

He has long voiced suspicions about American-orchestrated Taliban talks, and recently he has told those around him that the Qatar process could result in a separate peace deal between the United States, the Taliban and the group’s backers in Pakistan, and perhaps even his political opponents within Afghanistan as well.

The fact that the Taliban have pointedly refused to say they would talk with Karzai’s government even as they state their willingness to talk to the Americans has only reinforced his concerns.

He made that clear on Saturday, when after meeting with Prime Minister David Cameron of Britain he told reporters that the two had discussed “the fact that foreigners should not use the Afghan peace process for their goals and objectives”. He did not elaborate.

Karzai’s increasingly harsh response to American initiatives in recent years has struck some officials as verging on paranoia. But Afghans close to him say it is consistent with his view of the United States as an unreliable ally.

Afghans have not forgotten how the United States during the 1990s effectively outsourced its Afghanistan policy to Pakistan, which then helped bring the Taliban to power. That perceived abandonment remains a staple of conversation among many here. Karzai has often told those close to him of going to Washington for help in the 1990s and “having doors slammed in his face — nobody cared,” said another Afghan who has worked with him. “He’s seen this movie before,” the Afghan said.

Though the offensive Taliban symbols have since been taken down, a senior State Department official said on Wednesday that the Taliban were demanding that their Qatar office be identified as the political office of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and that the sign with the name be restored.

In any case, a member of the Afghan High Peace Council, Said Muhammad Amin Tariq, said that removal of the flag and sign were not enough. “Karzai wants more assurances.”

In particular, he is said to be adamant about pushing the Obama administration to pin down the specific number of American troops it wants to keep in Afghanistan after the NATO combat mission ends next year, as a sign of commitment to his government.

Karzai and some in his inner circle also seem to believe that the United States needs Afghanistan just as badly, and that they can strong-arm the Obama administration, according to some Afghan officials.

American officials say that kind of thinking is misguided. Though many American commanders and diplomats are pressing for a quick decision on troop numbers, some White House officials say they are increasingly uncertain that a security deal can be secured. “People are asking whether that’s something we can live with,” said one administration official. “The Afghans probably wouldn’t like to hear the answer to that question.”

Much of what Karzai wants beyond the troop commitment seems even more unlikely — particularly his demands pertaining to the Taliban talks.

Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan