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Thread: Global Warming...Fact or Fiction?

  1. #1816
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    Quote Originally Posted by ArmchairGeneral View Post
    No sarcasm, and it's not really a matter of time length, as long as you've got a 100 foot wide screen so you can display a 450,000 year timeline with enough resolution that the last 100 years are even visible. A one degree change over 5,000 years is essentially indistinguishable from a one degree degree change over 100 years on that graph.

    Anyway, those other graphs you posted are rather nice, and very interesting (apart from the 1990 IPCC one; no numbers on the y-axis? :shudder: ). I hadn't seen the Ljungqvist and Loehle ones before.

    I went looking for info on the Ljungvist paper, came up with this. The graphs on that post confused me a little, as their HadCRUT line seems to go much higher, up to approximately .8C instead of .5 like the Lungqvist graphs show, or, now that I look at it, .4 on the Loehle...and now I'm really confused. Maybe the last one is global HadCRUT instead of just Northern Hemisphere, that would make sense. But it doesn't explain the other discrepancy. Maybe the graphs in my link are actually going through 2007, instead of 2000? Doesn't look like it, though. And now I'm confused about Loehle again, since the HadCRUT there does go through 2007, and the anomaly is half of what I'm seeing in the my link, which looks like it only goes through 2000. Even if that's global instead of NH, that doesn't sound right.

    The little graph that the HadCRU people themselves provide looks more like the ones you posted, somewhere between .5 and .6. Weird.
    I don't know where they come up with a 1.4C rise either. Doesn't seem to jive with anything I know of, even if it is just Northern Hemisphere. Of course, they limited it to "land only" northern hemisphere....I guess it's scarier if you just cherry pick that and ignore the oceans and rest of the globe.
    Last edited by Wooglin; 04 Jan 11, at 18:14.

  2. #1817
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnut View Post
    Ray!!!! Welcome back sir! :cheers:
    Thanks


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  3. #1818
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wooglin View Post
    I don't know where they come up with a 1.4C rise either. Doesn't seem to jive with anything I know of, even if it is just Northern Hemisphere. Of course, they limited it to "land only" northern hemisphere....I guess it's scarier if you just cherry pick that and ignore the oceans and rest of the globe.
    That was CRUTEM. HadCRUT was land plus ocean. Now that I look at it again, the graphs within the post disagree with each other, too. On the first one HadCRUT goes to ~0.5C, like everybody else seems to say. It's only the middle one where CRUTEM goes to 1.4 and HadCRUT goes to .8. Maybe the scale is just screwed up.
    I enjoy being wrong too much to change my mind.

  4. #1819
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    The Bell Tells for You
    The Climate Crisis Hoax
    Larry Bell, 01.05.11, 10:00 AM ET

    I've encountered some folks who appear offended by the title of my new book Climate of Corruption: Politics and Power Behind the Global Warming Hoax. Why do you call it a "hoax"? they ask. Why not refer to the matter as a debate? The reason is quite simple: A debate describes a discussion in which participants competitively argue opposing points of view that are assumed to be based upon honest positions.

    A hoax is a deceptive act intended to hoodwink people through deliberate misinformation, including factual omissions. My book is about the latter. (And by the way, it can be ordered through primary vendors, and is currently being featured on "new releases" tables at 200 major Barnes and Noble stores.)

    The central lie is that we are experiencing a known human-caused climate crisis, a claim based on speculative theories, contrived data and totally unproven modeling predictions. And the evidence? Much is revealed by politically corrupted processes and agenda-driven report conclusions rendered by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which are trumpeted in the media as authoritative gospel.

    S. Fred Singer, former director of the U.S. Weather Satellite Service and University of Virginia professor emeritus commented about these sorry circumstances in the foreword of my book, stating in part:

    "Many would place the beginning of the global warming hoax on the Senate testimony delivered by James Hansen of NASA [director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies] during the summer of 1988. More than anything else, this exhibition of hyped alarm triggered my active skepticism about the man-made global warming scare. This skepticism was amplified when I acted as reviewer of the first three IPCC reports, in 1990, 1996, and 2001. Increasingly claims were made for which there was no evidence; in some cases the 'evidence' was clearly manufactured. For example, the 1966 report used selective data and doctored graphs. It also featured changes in the text that were made after the scientists had approved it and before it was printed."

    Other fraud is evident through public exposure of e-mail files retrieved from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) at Britain's University of East Anglia. Scandalous exchanges among prominent researchers who have fomented global warming hysteria confirm long-standing and broadly suspected manipulations of climate data. The communications also reveal conspiracies to falsify and withhold information, to suppress contrary findings in scholarly publications, and to exaggerate the existence and threats of man-made global warming. Many of these individuals have had major influence over summary report findings issued by the IPCC. Still other evidence comes from mouths of government officials, international climate summit organizers and leading science spokespeople recorded in candid public admissions.

    Another lie claims that there is a consensus among climate scientists that a known man-made global warming crisis exists. Official statements to the contrary presented by more than 650 international climate-related experts who presented contrary official testimony recorded in a 2008 U.S. Senate minority report suggest otherwise. So do petitions signed by more than 30,000 scientists that have challenged IPCC's 1995 procedures and report representations. Those circumstances prompted Dr. Frederick Seitz, former president of the U.S. Academy of Sciences, the American Physical Society, and Rockefeller University to write in The Wall Street Journal: "I have never witnessed a more disturbing corruption of the peer review process than events that led to this IPCC report."

    This brings us to a third, and most dangerous, lie of all--a fallacy that compelling evidence exists linking "unprecedented" climate warming to fossil CO2 emissions since the Industrial Revolution arising from an atmospheric "greenhouse effect." Alarmists project such horrors as melting Greenland and Antarctic ice that causes oceans to flood coastal areas, increasingly severe weather and hurricane trends, migration of mosquito-borne plagues northward from the tropics, destruction of coral reefs, and yeah, lest we forget, those stranded and starving polar bears and penguins.

    And what redemptive solutions are urgently implored? We must implement carbon cap-and-trade legislation; give lots of money to the U.N. to redistribute, and empower them to preside over world governments; abandon fossil fuel use in favor of heavily subsidized but assuredly abundant, "free," and "renewable" alternatives; and empower expanding government bureaucracies to protect us from free market excesses. These include the same agencies that declared CO2 a "pollutant" (something rain forests certainly dispute), and that listed polar bears as a threatened species (despite expanding populations), presumably to discourage public support for oil and gas drilling in ANWR.

    Corrupt climate science, upon which such fallacies are based, presents incalculably vast economic and social consequences. It provides justification and cover for gross regulatory intrusion by the EPA, DoE and other government agencies into agriculture, energy, transportation and construction industries; escalates food, fuel and manufacturing costs through unwarranted mandates and subsidies for otherwise uncompetitive "renewable" fuels; provokes legislation and legal suits that paralyze vital fossil energy exploration and infrastructure development; drives drilling operations and other job-supporting businesses overseas; politicizes and subverts science, education and media reporting; and defrauds hardworking taxpayers who pay many billions of dollars for honest information.

    Apollo 7 astronaut Walter Cunningham contributed a statement for my book that conveys deep concern about corruption of climate science in general, and within NASA in particular: He comments that "Those of us fortunate enough to have traveled in space bet our lives on the competence, dedication and integrity of science and technology professionals who made our missions possible...In the last twenty years, I have watched the high standards of science being violated by a few climate scientists, including some at NASA, while special interest opportunists have dangerously abused our public trust."

    Clearly, most proponents of man-made global warming theory are very sincere, often well-informed, people. Here, honest debate based upon facts and logic should be openly welcomed, and nothing in the foregoing should be interpreted to suggest otherwise. Some, holding strong viewpoints on both sides of the issues, may be inclined to challenge base motives and affiliations of those who disagree, and responsibility for full disclosure of any serious conflicts of interest should be expected. In this regard, being part of any science community that depends on funding from biased sponsors (including government agencies and industries), doesn't make those individuals or their work corrupt. The vast majority of all science professionals are in that situation.

    Yet isn't it remarkable that Al Gore, who has recently become extremely wealthy, has never felt obliged to publicly disclose his large stakes in green market industries through his Generation Investment Management firm, or in Chicago Climate Exchange cap-and-trade legislation interests? Would you trust a financial advisor who committed the same ethical breach?

    Who stands to gain from the politics of corrupt climate science? There are many culprits, and they are becoming ever more powerful. Principal among them are certain agenda-driven federal government regulatory agencies; alternative energy and environmental lobbies; a captive multibillion-dollar per year climate science industry; cap-and-trade marketers; large, associated special-interest hedge fund managers; and yes, the U.N. and other organizations seeking global resource and wealth redistribution.

    While it might be overreaching to bundle certain dishonest players within various categories into a unified conspiracy theory, many of these organs of misinformation clearly do appear to be joined at a common colon. Either way, the end results are much the same.

    Weekly columnist Larry Bell is a professor at the University of Houston and author of Climate of Corruption: Politics and Power Behind the Global Warming Hoax, which can be previewed and ordered at: www.climateofcorruption.com.
    To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

  5. #1820
    Lord High Hullabalooster Senior Contributor dalem's Avatar
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    Told ya.

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  6. #1821
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    I think politics is at fault here, not science.

  7. #1822
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    The problem is that science was subverted by politics and big money
    Meddle not in the affairs of dragons, for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup.

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  8. #1823
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigross86 View Post
    The problem is that science was subverted by politics and big money
    Why do you say so?

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    Falsifying data, mass hysteria, professional suicide if scientists disagree with the Church of Global Warming. Read this thread, you can find evidence of that and more.

    However, because GW has some great PR people, research grants are being handed out to people that toe the line, not those that are going against GW. It's a self feeding monster: because of GW, the politicians are scared and demand more research in it. Since the big money is in being green and proving GW and not vice versa, the companies are all in favor of funding scientists that will prove GW and dispel the myth. Very simple: Science was subverted by Politics and Big Money. Read this thread, you'll find proof of that in abundance
    Meddle not in the affairs of dragons, for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup.

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  10. #1825
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigross86 View Post
    The problem is that science was subverted by politics and big money
    I'm curious where's the "big money" to be made from falsifiying evidence of global warming? I mean I can see where theres money to be made disproving it - every big CO2 producing corporate on the planet would be your love slave but I can't figure out whose going to pay big bucks to see it proved true - Green Peace isn't exactly that wealthy.

  11. #1826
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    RealClearMarkets - The Perverse Economics of Climate Modeling

    And climate modelers? Scientists living on the public weal get compensated via a mix of government grants and scientific prestige. Their problem they are trying to solve is "How do I get my papers published in the most prestigious journals so I can maximize the size of my next grant?"

    If you've ever done computer modeling you know that there are a thousand ways to make a set of curves fit retrospective data in underconstrained systems. And right now, both the government grant and scientific prestige markets are dishing out significant rewards for models that predict runaway climate disaster. So which curves do you think savvy modelers are going to pick?
    Not enough?

    Global-warming Alarmism Dying a Slow Death

    There are many players with a significant stake in making sure the public believes “climate change” is caused by man and carbon emissions. Governments have invested hundreds of billions in it — likely because greenhouse-gas legislation will allow government to monitor and control almost everything every citizen does. Banks, too, have vast sums tied up in the scheme — including Goldman Sachs, one of the most powerful firms on Earth — because they stand to make piles of money trading carbon permits. Gore and Pachauri have their fortunes and their reputations at stake. Many climatologists have their careers to lose, too.
    Need more?

    Inventor paints mountains white to combat climate change - Telegraph

    The £135,000-project is funded by the World Bank after Mr Gold won a "100 Ideas to Save the Planet" competition last year.
    Seems to me that there's plenty money involved in this, both from the government and private companies, to keep GW alive

    Meddle not in the affairs of dragons, for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup.

    Abusing Yellow is meant to be a labor of love, not something you sell to the highest bidder.

  12. #1827
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    So let me get this straight ..... virtually the entire global community of climatologists have entered into a tacit agreement to falsify data and corrupt their scientific endeavours in the hope of gaining A) peer recognition and B) a pay rise because the government will be forced to spend more money on climate related science and demand for their skills will therefore go up!

    And this brilliant ... wait for it ......CONSPIRACY..... manages to succeed despite the fact that climatologists also have to rely on the expertise of virtually every other branch of modern science e.g. geology, oceanography, chemistry, biology, astronomy, physics and computer science etc etc for the collection and interpretation of data AND they need to do this in secret without anyone in those branches of science, any science journalists, admin and/or support staff becoming aware of it.

    As I said brilliant, just brilliant...... now why didn't anyone else think of it...no wait .... maybe they did! Maybe ALL scientific research today is being faked as a result of the ever increasing competition for recognition, money and hot dates for the Nobel Prize award ceremony. CERN isn't conducting research into the basic structure of the universe - no, their faking their results and stealing the research money. The Large Hadron Collider is actually just a collection of old roller coaster parts from disused fun parks and all the so called "results" are actully coming from an Apple Mac running a random number generator and then feeding the output into an IRS 1040 form...........

    The scientific conspiracy theory road is a dangerous one to travel - if someone is going to insist that climatologists as a Profession are faking there results they run the risk of ending up in the "Special needs" science classroom alongside scientific creationists and the "vaccines cause autism" crowds all of whom insist that their work on their special subject of interest has been supressed by a science community desperate to hide the "truth". There is chance that human activity is not contributing to a trend towards global warming but the best models we have available to us today tell us this is unlikely to be the case. And in the end all anyone can do is base their decisions on the best information available.
    Last edited by Monash; 31 Jan 11, at 08:06.

  13. #1828
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    Convergence of interests doesn't necessarily equate to conspiracy, but the hacked emails certainly show manipulation of data and an organized effort to discredit anyone who disagrees.

    They won't give up willingly, their entire careers are staked on the hypothesis. But good science will win out eventually, that's the beauty of it. It can't be stopped.

    The AGW crowd are forced downgrade their predictions over and over as their models continue to fail to account for empirical evidence. As it stands now, the margins of error in the assumptions already outweigh the measured data by a wide margin.

    CO2 is a good thing, the world's forests are loving it.
    Trees Need CO2. International research has demonstrated that trees also benefit from increased CO2 levels.

    In research from the U.S. Water Conservation Laboratory, doubling CO2 from current levels helped orange trees accumulate 2.8 times as much biomass in the first five years of the tests and yield 10 times as many oranges in the first two years of orange production. Other U.S. studies confirm these findings. For example:

    Since 1890, high-altitude conifers in the Cascade Mountains of Washington have increased in mass approximately 60 percent from previous growth trends.

    In New England, a study of 10 tree species showed an average growth enhancement of 24 percent from 1950 to 1980, a period when CO2 levels were rising.

    European studies have also demonstrated that elevated CO2 levels benefit tree growth. For example:

    Stands of Scotch pine in northern Finland have experienced growth increases of 15 to 43 percent since 1950.

    Forest growth rates in Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany, have increased 20 percent in the past 20 years.

    Scientists have discovered no environmental factor other than the CO2 increase that could explain the higher growth rates found in forests around the world.

    Who's Afraid of CO2? | Publications | National Center for Policy Analysis | NCPA
    "We will go through our federal budget – page by page, line by line – eliminating those programs we don’t need, and insisting that those we do operate in a sensible cost-effective way." -President Barack Obama 11/25/2008

  14. #1829
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    ^^ And that's how the earth self-regulates and does not run-away. Trees and plants take the carbon and eventually this ends up in mineral form, locked into the soil, as the tree decays. CO2 is locked most of all via the oceans... CO2 dissolves in water, diatoms and other shelled creatures grab the carbonates, form their shells, die, and sink, ultimately ending up as chalk and limestone in the crust.

    Mount Everest is mostly limestone from ancient sea-beds. A giant lump containing megatons of carbon.

  15. #1830
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    Quote Originally Posted by highsea View Post
    They won't give up willingly, their entire careers are staked on the hypothesis. But good science will win out eventually, that's the beauty of it. It can't be stopped.

    The AGW crowd are forced downgrade their predictions over and over as their models continue to fail to account for empirical evidence. As it stands now, the margins of error in the assumptions already outweigh the measured data by a wide margin.

    CO2 is a good thing, the world's forests are loving it.
    Firstly who exactly are "they". As with most conspiracy theories "They" seem to be very busy, falsifying data (that can be checked by other professional scientist's who presumably are not "they"), manipulating governments and their advisers (also not "they") and the media (although I grant you the last is not necessarily difficult since end of the world/disaster scenarios boost circulation).

    Secondly with regards to CO2 and photosynthesis perhaps you have heard of the expression "to much of a good thing". The fact that increasing CO2 levels boost plant growth is taken into account by climatologists in developing their models. The problem being that the increased growth rate you refer to has been proven by plant biologists to only occur over a narrow range of CO2 concentrations. Photosynthesis as a chemical reaction in the natural world has a very narrow range of efficiencies. In other words beyond certain very narrow limits increasing the % of CO2 in the atmosphere produces no benefit for a plant because there is a strict upper limit imposed by chemistry on how much of the gas a plant can utilize at a given moment.

    If the effect was simply linier we could solve the worlds foods production problems tomorrow simply by growing food plants in green houses with high CO2 levels. So more is not necessarily better. Just because roses like horse manure doesn't mean I'm going to get better results if I bury my prize "muscatels" under one ton of horse shit!

    So in conclusion plants are not “loving it” they are simply responding to initial increases in CO2 levels with a marginal increase in their growth rates that will not absorb all the extra CO2 being produced.

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