Ballguy

http://www.ucar.edu/research/climate/warming.shtml


http://www.ucar.edu/research/climate/future.shtml

__________________
The Ball Mall, LLC: Your Central Ohio Source for Used and Recovered Golf Balls.

Shek

This is science. Either you've got the papers (I'm talking published, peer reviewed papers in a scientific journal; not some article written by a journalist that's interviewed some scientists and enviro-friendly lobbying groups) that demonstrate both correlation and causation with statistical significance with an unbiased specification or you don't. Simple or complex laboratory experiments cannot replicate the earth, so don't try to pawn that off as proof. "Doesn't cause cancer in laboratory rats" may cut it for getting products onto the market, but it doesn't for modeling something as complex as the earth.

__________________
"So little pains do the vulgar take in the investigation of truth, accepting readily the first story that comes to hand." Thucydides 1.20.3

Ballguy

Okay, would you like to deny that the world is getting warmer? Please, do. I will laugh.

Ballguy

And I quote the EPA

What's Known for Certain?
Scientists know for certain that human activities are changing the composition of Earth's atmosphere. Increasing levels of greenhouse gases, like carbon dioxide (CO2 ), in the atmosphere since pre-industrial times have been well documented. There is no doubt this atmospheric buildup of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases is largely the result of human activities.

It's well accepted by scientists that greenhouse gases trap heat in the Earth's atmosphere and tend to warm the planet. By increasing the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, human activities are strengthening Earth's natural greenhouse effect. The key greenhouse gases emitted by human activities remain in the atmosphere for periods ranging from decades to centuries.

A warming trend of about 1°F has been recorded since the late 19th century. Warming has occurred in both the northern and southern hemispheres, and over the oceans. Confirmation of 20th-century global warming is further substantiated by melting glaciers, decreased snow cover in the northern hemisphere and even warming below ground.

Ballguy

m21, this is from the same website you use.

http://www.livescience.com/environme...house_gas.html

as is this:

http://www.livescience.com/environme...september.html

Ballguy

Originally Posted by M21Sniper
I'll tell you why, because the scientific community just flat out DOES NOT KNOW anywhere near enough about our environment or it's history to be making sound predictions, LET ALONE, reccomending ways to 'fix' the 'problem', if indeed there even IS any problem.


I take it you are in a position to criticize the scientific community? And yes, there is a problem. A problem that our nation, supposedly the most progressive scientific nation in the world, has in it millions of people who refuse to acknowledge established scientific fact.

Shek

Except for I believe Praxus, no one here to my recollection has ever argued that global warming doesn't exist. What is being questioned is whether humans are contributing to this and if so, to what extent.

Your website reads nice and has a pretty chart with beautiful colors, but we aren't doing a grade school science fair. Please present the data behind the chart and the analysis. For example, the chart talks about accounting for uncertainties in the simulation, but it doesn't provide the significance level. If we want to discuss the science of something, which involves using statistics, then we need to talk significance level. Not doing so is poor science, or shall I say, junk science.

Human Driven Global Warming may very well exist, but there are scientific methods out there that can be used to prove that assertion. Unless you come up with the data and analysis that underlies the dumbed down conclusions on the site you listed, so we can judge the methodology as being both sound and correct or not, then I just don't find it to be very compelling.

Ballguy

Proof here. http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwa...ndividual.html

This is human driven global warming, which I believe happens to coincide with the rising temperatures of the world. This is backed up by this data:

http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwa...t/climate.html (see the chart at roughly the bottom)



And another quote from the EPA:

"Once, all climate changes occurred naturally. However, during the Industrial Revolution, we began altering our climate and environment through changing agricultural and industrial practices. Before the Industrial Revolution, human activity released very few gases into the atmosphere, but now through population growth, fossil fuel burning, and deforestation, we are affecting the mixture of gases in the atmosphere. "

Shek

You're talking charts, I'm talking about data, statistics, regressions, confidence intervals, statistical significance, etc. If you don't understand what I'm saying, then you're not going to change my mind and are wasting my time with links to charts.

Ballguy

Charts are interpretations of statistics. If you would like me to convert the charts for you, then I will.

THL

Since you are implying that Sniper (or any of us) are not in a position to critize (or question) the scientific community, then how are you in a position to defend it?

Scientists are proven wrong everyday and they will continue to be proven wrong as long as there are other scientists. You think if we had asked Mr Bell if he thought a day would ever come where everyone over the age of 14 would have a cellular phone smaller enough to fit in our pockets he'd have agreed? Motorola sure is proving him wrong, huh? Or how about if we asked Mr Franklin if we'd ever be using this electricity to communicate with people from all over the world in seconds? He'd have smacked you upside the head for suggesting something so ridiculous.

It is absurd to assume that because someone is a scientist that their conclusion is the ultimate truth.

__________________
"To dream of the person you would like to be is to waste the person you are."-Sholem Asch

"I always turn to the sports page first, which records people's accomplishments. The front page has nothing but man's failures."-Earl Warren

"I didn't intend for this to take on a political tone. I'm just here for the drugs."-Nancy Reagan, when asked a political question at a "Just Say No" rally

"He no play-a da game, he no make-a da rules."-Earl Butz, on the Pope's attitude toward birth control

Ballguy

Many times, it is.

THL

Many times, it isn't

Officer of Engineers

Captain,

He hasn't had the chance at statistical analysis yet and won't be for another 3 years or so. Right now, he's blowing smoke.

__________________
Chimo

Shek

Sir,
I didn't see any birthday listed in the profile, maybe I'm just blind. In any event, I figured as much since after I mentioned all of the above I kept on getting charts.