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Old 06-17-2007, 18:03 PM   #46 (permalink)
Parihaka
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Originally Posted by zraver View Post
It all happens to be paralleing our oil economy.
It also happens to be paralleling the rise of the bicycle.
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Old 06-17-2007, 18:40 PM   #47 (permalink)
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False. Resolution of paleoclimate becomes more and more fine as we approach the current time, therefore we see more fluctuations that are not present in the older records.



So we have to spend money and time on YOUR personal bag of wishes? Because of maybes and mights? You can't even identify a related problem that needs addressing, let alone a way to address it.

-dale
1- Compared to the medievil warming period and the maunder minimum we have very accurate records of what grew where, what froze when etc. Fossil records also give a very good record via pollen on what was growing and where.

2- Problem= World wide opinion is growing and forming a gorebal wamring consensus. This could lead to massive cuts in my way of life as assine laws get passed to roll back technology to "save" the planet.

Fix= Take ove rthe argument by co-opting it and guiding the discussion and action in to the development of clean sustainable technologies that make sure my kids don't suffer either from a dirty enviroment (if the gorebals are right) or lack of technology.

Take your ad hominem elsewhere please.
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Old 06-17-2007, 19:43 PM   #48 (permalink)
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Something is going on (and I will take Dr. Gasconi's words over anyone on this board, he is after all the President of Woods Hole and a fellow of the American acedemy of Sciences) and its not good and if man is a cause or an accerlatant we have a duty to do something besides sticking our head in the sand.
The President and director of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute is James Luyten, Ph.D.
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Old 06-17-2007, 21:59 PM   #49 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by zraver View Post
1- Compared to the medievil warming period and the maunder minimum we have very accurate records of what grew where, what froze when etc. Fossil records also give a very good record via pollen on what was growing and where.
You're ignoring the possible resolutions available the further back you go. Still not an ounce of proof or evidence that survives the achallenge of "are industrial emissions affecting climate at all, let alone enough to be worrisome.

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2- Problem= World wide opinion is growing and forming a gorebal wamring consensus. This could lead to massive cuts in my way of life as assine laws get passed to roll back technology to "save" the planet.
World wide opinion can go eat a wang, and yes, the Greeniacs are anti-human, not anti-"global warming".

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Fix= Take ove rthe argument by co-opting it and guiding the discussion and action in to the development of clean sustainable technologies that make sure my kids don't suffer either from a dirty enviroment (if the gorebals are right) or lack of technology.

Take your ad hominem elsewhere please.
No ad hominems here - I am absolutely opposed to the idea of accepting a scientific falsehood simply for the illusion of getting to where you appear to want to get anyway. I despise all doomsturbation equally whether it's "global warmng" or "peak oil" or "pollution kills" or AIDS or any of that rot.

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Old 06-17-2007, 23:49 PM   #50 (permalink)
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awareness

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Originally Posted by Parihaka View Post
You are aware that the Fox and Franz Joseph glaciers in New Zealand are growing, aren't you?
And that Antarctica is getting colder?
I choose to believe the scientists who go out regularly to measure the glaciers'
rates of melting, the polar ice caps' rates of melting, over 80 years of measuring than the few years where it was shown that they are growing. The volcanic activity in New Zealand does affect the glaciers' movements.
However, the links below show that in 50 years, glacier movement on the planet indicates retreat, not growth.

Retreat of glaciers since 1850 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Glacier - LoveToKnow 1911
Cities in peril as Andean glaciers melt | Science | Guardian Unlimited
Antarctic Ice Sheet Is Melting Rapidly
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Old 06-18-2007, 00:30 AM   #51 (permalink)
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I am prepared to accept that the planet may be warming. I do NOT accept that it is a provable fact that this is anything extraordinary, or that anything that we could do could cause it or arrest it.

So glaciers growing/shrinking is merely interesting. It isn't the central question.
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Old 06-18-2007, 00:32 AM   #52 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by smalltexan View Post
I choose to believe the scientists who go out regularly to measure the glaciers'
rates of melting, the polar ice caps' rates of melting, over 80 years of measuring than the few years where it was shown that they are growing. The volcanic activity in New Zealand does affect the glaciers' movements.
However, the links below show that in 50 years, glacier movement on the planet indicates retreat, not growth.

Retreat of glaciers since 1850 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Glacier - LoveToKnow 1911
Cities in peril as Andean glaciers melt | Science | Guardian Unlimited
Antarctic Ice Sheet Is Melting Rapidly
So according to you the glaciers have retreated in the last 50 years. How about before that? Was anyone around to measure it? How can you predict or diagnose the state of the glacier when we don't know its life history?

It's 65F at 8am here.

Temperature rises to 72 by 9am.

We now have 80 at 10am.

I predict we'll hit 89 by 11am; 99 at noon time; 110 by 1pm; 122 by 2pm; 135 at 3pm; 149 at 4pm; and the entire earth will burn up by 5pm.

Is that a valid extrapolation?
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Old 06-18-2007, 00:38 AM   #53 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by smalltexan View Post
I choose to believe the scientists who go out regularly to measure the glaciers'
rates of melting, the polar ice caps' rates of melting, over 80 years of measuring than the few years where it was shown that they are growing. The volcanic activity in New Zealand does affect the glaciers' movements.
No it doesn't. New Zealands active volcanoes are in the Te Ika a Maui (North Island) not Te Wai Pounamu (South Island) and have no effect on the South Island glaciers.
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Originally Posted by smalltexan View Post
However, the links below show that in 50 years, glacier movement on the planet indicates retreat, not growth.
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
So how do you explain the current 150 year retreat (as far back as the current retreat is measured) in terms of anthropomorphic carbon emission?
And yes, even by your wiki article, both Franz Joseph and Fox, on the west coast of Te Wai Pounamu, are currently growing subject to rainfall from the Tasman sea which they border. The Tasman sea is of course, effected by El Nino and La Nina, which I have already stated.
And again, how are previous glacial advances and retreats such as the medieval warm period or early 1800's mini ice age explained under anthropomorphic carbon emission?
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yes thank you, but I've stood on, climbed on, skied and jumped into several of them, so I do know what they are.
Here's a more informative non-newspaper article with links to peer reviewed articles covering glacial retreat.
RealClimate » Worldwide glacier retreat Recul mondial des glaciers
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Current estimates indicate that the global sea level is rising due to global warming and the shrinkage of terrestrial, or land-based, ice. Recent scientific studies have shown that a variety of terrestrial ice sources, such as the Greenland ice sheet, the West Antarctic ice sheet and Alaskan mountain glaciers, are contributing significant amounts to the global sea-level rise. However, in a study to appear in this week's online edition of Science, a researcher at the University of Missouri-Columbia has found that the interior of the East Antarctic ice sheet is actually gaining mass.
Source with links to peer reviewed articles, again not a newspaper.

Last edited by Parihaka : 06-18-2007 at 01:03 AM.
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Old 06-18-2007, 01:26 AM   #54 (permalink)
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At the risk of labouring the point: There was a mini or little ice age which, as your glacial retreat article also from wiki neatly illustrates, ended in the early to mid 19th century. Since then glaciers have been in general retreating as the earth warms.
So it begs the question, how is anthropomorphic carbon emission, or human generated carbon from oil consumption, responsible for this?
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Old 06-18-2007, 02:02 AM   #55 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Parihaka View Post
The Tasman sea is of course, effected by El Nino and La Nina, which I have already stated..
The logical link being that the El Nino and La Nina are affected by the thermohaline currents which in turn is affected by GW.
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Old 06-18-2007, 02:17 AM   #56 (permalink)
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The President and director of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute is James Luyten, Ph.D.
Ahh, well figures the people would change with time (and I did mispell his name) but the change isn't offical until July 17th. and James Luyten, Ph.D. is only a temp Dir/Pres.

Robert B. Gagosian
President and Director
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Prepared for a panel on abrupt climate change at the
World Economic Forum
Davos, Switzerland, January 27, 2003

Are we overlooking potential abrupt climate shifts?
Most of the studies and debates on potential climate change, along with its ecological and economic impacts, have focused on the ongoing buildup of industrial greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and a gradual increase in global temperatures. This line of thinking, however, fails to consider another potentially disruptive climate scenario. It ignores recent and rapidly advancing evidence that Earth’s climate repeatedly has shifted abruptly and dramatically in the past, and is capable of doing so in the future

Abrupt Climate Change: Should We Be Worried? : Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

From the article

It is important to clarify that we are not contemplating a situation of either abrupt cooling or global warming. Rather, abrupt regional cooling and gradual global warming can unfold simultaneously. Indeed, greenhouse warming is a destabilizing factor that makes abrupt climate change more probable. A 2002 report by the US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) said, “available evidence suggests that abrupt climate changes are not only possible but likely in the future, potentially with large impacts on ecosystems and societies.”2

The timing of any abrupt regional cooling in the future also has critical policy implications. An abrupt cooling that happens within the next two decades would produce different climate effects than one that occurs after another century of continuing greenhouse warming.

ROBERT B. GAGOSIAN is President and Director of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Woods Hole, Massachusetts. He was appointed Director in 1994 and President in 2001, following a distinguished career as a marine geochemist. He has served as Chairman of the Board of Governors for the 52-institution Consortium for Oceanographic Research and Education and as a member of the Ocean Research Advisory Panel of the US National Oceanographic Partnership Program. In 2002, he was appointed to the Science Advisory Panel of the US Commission on Ocean Policy and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Science Advisory Board, and was elected a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences.

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You're ignoring the possible resolutions available the further back you go. Still not an ounce of proof or evidence that survives the achallenge of "are industrial emissions affecting climate at all, let alone enough to be worrisome.
What sources will you accept?

Quote:
No ad hominems here - I am absolutely opposed to the idea of accepting a scientific falsehood simply for the illusion of getting to where you appear to want to get anyway. I despise all doomsturbation equally whether it's "global warmng" or "peak oil" or "pollution kills" or AIDS or any of that rot.
They are out to get you, and standign on principle only means they will get you. My fellow conservatives often seme to think if you ignore a problem it will go away. But you can't ignore movements that make thier appeals to un and under educated masses you have to co-opt them and steer them in constructive directions.
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Old 06-18-2007, 02:22 AM   #57 (permalink)
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The logical link being that the El Nino and La Nina are affected by the thermohaline currents which in turn is affected by GW.
The globe is warming, yes, and has been since the 1600s. There may be a correlation between the severity of ENSO and global temperature.
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Old 06-18-2007, 02:29 AM   #58 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by zraver View Post
Ahh, well figures the people would change with time (and I did mispell his name) but the change isn't offical until July 17th. and James Luyten, Ph.D. is only a temp Dir/Pres.

Robert B. Gagosian
President and Director
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Prepared for a panel on abrupt climate change at the
World Economic Forum
Davos, Switzerland, January 27, 2003

Are we overlooking potential abrupt climate shifts?
Most of the studies and debates on potential climate change, along with its ecological and economic impacts, have focused on the ongoing buildup of industrial greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and a gradual increase in global temperatures. This line of thinking, however, fails to consider another potentially disruptive climate scenario. It ignores recent and rapidly advancing evidence that Earth’s climate repeatedly has shifted abruptly and dramatically in the past, and is capable of doing so in the future
Okay, now I see where your coming from. Yes, as he says
Quote:
Are we overlooking potential abrupt climate shifts?
Most of the studies and debates on potential climate change, along with its ecological and economic impacts, have focused on the ongoing buildup of industrial greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and a gradual increase in global temperatures. This line of thinking, however, fails to consider another potentially disruptive climate scenario. It ignores recent and rapidly advancing evidence that Earth’s climate repeatedly has shifted abruptly and dramatically in the past, and is capable of doing so in the future.

Fossil evidence clearly demonstrates that Earthvs climate can shift gears within a decade, establishing new and different patterns that can persist for decades to centuries. In addition, these climate shifts do not necessarily have universal, global effects. They can generate a counterintuitive scenario: Even as the earth as a whole continues to warm gradually, large regions may experience a precipitous and disruptive shift into colder climates.

This new paradigm of abrupt climate change has been well established over the last decade by research of ocean, earth and atmosphere scientists at many institutions worldwide. But the concept remains little known and scarcely appreciated in the wider community of scientists, economists, policy makers, and world political and business leaders. Thus, world leaders may be planning for climate scenarios of global warming that are opposite to what might actually occur.1

It is important to clarify that we are not contemplating a situation of either abrupt cooling or global warming. Rather, abrupt regional cooling and gradual global warming can unfold simultaneously. Indeed, greenhouse warming is a destabilizing factor that makes abrupt climate change more probable. A 2002 report by the US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) said, “available evidence suggests that abrupt climate changes are not only possible but likely in the future, potentially with large impacts on ecosystems and societies.”2

The timing of any abrupt regional cooling in the future also has critical policy implications. An abrupt cooling that happens within the next two decades would produce different climate effects than one that occurs after another century of continuing greenhouse warming.
Yes, the Earths climate has shifted dramatically in the past, and will almost certainly change in the future, irrespective of our input.
Getting rid of an oil economy will not affect this.
It has not been shown to be a product of carbon emissions.
More study is urgently needed so we can understand and plan for it.
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Old 06-18-2007, 02:45 AM   #59 (permalink)
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Don't mix up gross hydrocarbons with CO2...

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No. I admitted on pratically every post that science often is wong. But Science is the only thing that works on proof or what we have of it now.

And FYI no one is asking you to go to an agrarian society. Neither is the essay. Nor do most of the papers I have read. I want a switch to cleaner fuels. If nothing else ones with lesser residue, better burn. So don't tell me you know what I'm going on about because you don't know the first thing.
The stuff coming out of exausts in most gas burning cars by CA. smog standards is CO2 and water. A cleanly burned hydrocarbon becomes CO2 and H2O. If a vehical is burning dirty add to that Gross Hydrocarbons. CAlifornia and most of American vehicals burn clean and produce only water vapor and CO2. Until the global warming scare that was considered clean. But Al Gore and the socialist libs need a new reason to exist and be employed, so they create a problem to solve, that of CO2.

CO2 is a weak greenhouse gas at best. Sun, rain, growing and decaying plant life, the burning of the earths core produce huge amounts of CO2 and to the benefit of nature as CO2 feeds and nourishes plant life and in turn the nutrients are consumed as we eat the fruits and vegetables that the sun, rain and CO2 aids in producing.

The warming right now on earth is being produced by a increase in solar radiation, (hotter sun) for those in Rio Linda. On the Moon and Mars the temperature is increasing at the same % rate as earth...Mars melting polar ice caps???????? WWHHAAATTT?

But no need to worry. Nature (GOD) has a way of homogenizing the temperature of the globe and benefiting mankind in one fell swoop by producing more cloud cover as the globe warms, thus softening the effect of the warming and making the colder areas warmer. All the while the South Pole will increase its pack-ice because its temperatures will still be below freezing most of the time. It is believed by some scientist that the increase of pack-ice will occure in the South Pole dry regions because of increased precipitation brought on by Global Warming.

Read the ideas of the other side of the issue sometimes.


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Old 06-18-2007, 02:53 AM   #60 (permalink)
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Mars the temperature is increasing at the same % rate as earth...
Actually it's increased by 0.65 degrees Celsius in just twenty years, far faster than earth.
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