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  • new Cold War?

    Vladimir Putin has delivered a swift and uncompromising blow to the imposition of US and EU sanctions by signing a decree recognising Crimea as an independent state, paving the way for him to acknowledge a request from the breakaway region to join the Russian Federation.
    Ignoring Western threats of a new Cold War and a “far-reaching” economic blockade, the Russian president will on Tuesday address both houses of the Russian parliament on the crisis, and is expected to welcome Crimea into the fold. The formal process of absorbing the peninsula could be completed within weeks.
    The Kremlin announced that Mr Putin had signed a decree recognising Crimea as an independent state, after it voted overwhelmingly on Sunday to leave Ukraine and join Russia.
    The US and the European Union responded by issuing targeted sanctions against several key players in the escalating crisis, including senior Kremlin officials, in an attempt to deter the Russian president from absorbing Crimea into the Russian Federation.
    President Barack Obama gave warning that “if Russia continues to interfere in Ukraine, we stand ready to impose further sanctions”.
    He urged Mr Putin to take the diplomatic path to resolving a dispute that is regarded as the most serious confrontation between East and West since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
    William Hague, the Foreign Secretary, warned that the EU would go further than the sanctions imposed yesterday against 21 Russian and Crimean politicians or officials involved in the destabilisation and break-up of Ukraine.
    Among those sanctioned were Valentina Matvienko, a close Putin ally who is speaker of the upper house of parliament and Vladislav Surkov, one of Putin’s top ideological aides. The Crimean prime minister Sergei Aksyonov and two other top figures were also targeted.
    “The important thing is that we are prepared to move to further measures and there will be long-term costs and consequences for Russia if they continue to approach things in this way,” Mr Hague warned, adding that Europe would also start to look to reduce its energy reliance on Russia.
    “I would not describe it as a new Cold War, but that will depend on the course of events over the coming days,” he told the BBC.
    At the same time, Royal Air Force Typhoons have been offered to Nato to bolster routine “air policing” efforts along Europe’s eastern frontier following Russian action in Crimea, Philip Hammond, the Defence Secretary, confirmed.
    Last night separatist Crimean leaders travelled to Moscow where they will be feted at parliament on Tuesday.
    Before leaving they rushed through a raft of measures to ready the region’s unification with Russia, issuing a formal appeal to Moscow “to accept the Republic of Crimea into the Russian Federation as a new subject with the status of a republic”.
    Members also voted to rename their assembly the “State Soviet,” while passing legislation to introduce the Russian rouble as a second currency and to allow Ukrainian troops to join the Crimean - and hence Russian - armed forces. They even shifted time zones, voting for Crimea to move to Moscow time.
    Continues

    So, what's the political likelyhood of this occurring?
    In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

    Leibniz

  • #2
    What happens if Russia goes from responsive stance to a proactive one, namely if they start imposing sanctions like freezing all foreign assets on Russian soil and stop energy export at once?

    I know they will be hurt financially, but what's couple of hundred of billions to show them Westerners we mean business?

    After all, they did it all nice and dandy without body bags and look how the West treats them.
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Doktor View Post
      What happens if Russia goes from responsive stance to a proactive one, namely if they start imposing sanctions like freezing all foreign assets on Russian soil and stop energy export at once?

      I know they will be hurt financially, but what's couple of hundred of billions to show them Westerners we mean business?

      After all, they did it all nice and dandy without body bags and look how the West treats them.
      Russia’s Top 10 Exports
      The following export product groups represent the highest dollar value in Russian global shipments during 2012. Also shown is the percentage share each export category represents in terms of overall exports from Russia.
      Mineral fuels including oil: $375,423,947,000 (71.6% of total exports)
      Iron and steel: $22,601,664,000 (4.3%)
      Fertilizers: $11,176,846,000 (2.1%)
      Inorganic chemicals: $7,835,699,000 (1.5%)
      Machinery: $7,609,061,000 (1.5%)
      Aluminum: $7,281,329,000 (1.4%)
      Wood: $6,731,569,000 (1.3%)
      Cereals: $6,246,547,000 (1.2%)
      Copper: $5,787,339,000 (1.1%)
      Organic chemicals: $4,516,890,000 (0.9%)

      EU countries are already talking about diversifying energy imports away from Russia

      (Reuters) - The European Union has begun discussing the need to reduce its reliance on Russian energy, British Foreign Secretary William Hague said on Monday.

      "We have started today discussing the longer term, the need to reduce European dependence on Russian energy over many years to come," Hague said on Sky News after a meeting of European Union foreign ministers in Brussels.
      The question isn't whether current tit-for-tat measures mean anything, the question is what's going to happen over a 15 to 20 year span
      In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

      Leibniz

      Comment


      • #4
        Go back 20 years and show me one politician or analyst who saw the current situation.

        The sad reality is the politicians are very busy to plan ahead for 10 years max (2 mandates). And that's for those with vision.
        No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

        To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Doktor View Post
          Go back 20 years and show me one politician or analyst who saw the current situation.

          The sad reality is the politicians are very busy to plan ahead for 10 years max (2 mandates). And that's for those with vision.
          And yet the old cold war lasted at least 45 years.
          In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

          Leibniz

          Comment


          • #6
            That is a good question.
            Judging from our perspective and our experience, first thing that will happen will be expulsion of Russia from decision making process in various groups and bodies, up to the UN itself. This will limit the Russian influence and give freedom to West to make decisions unilaterally. Since we all read king Zbiggy and Mackinder,we all know that this is a continuity of two centuries of same policies,so question will this be a start of a new cold war, seen from this perspective is a wrong question, simply because war never ended. According to Zibggy and Mac, war between West and the Russia is constant and it will end only with annihilation of one side or both of them. Second step in this geo strategy is lifting the sanctions towards Iran and maybe N. Korea and some how coming to terms with Assad. This will than complete the crescent around world island and leave the " heartland " isolated and left to disappear in a series of mini wars, internal conflict, poverty sickness and other things that will ultimately create internal pressure that will destroy the system from the inside. Once the "change" happen, heartland will be consumed and gnawed to the bone in a absolute orgy of easy credits, and other hedonistic fantasies, created by a bunch of people whom had too much free time and never had to lift anything heavier than a sliver spoon, whose daily life consists only out of golf, yachting, hunting foxes, shopping, driving golden cars, partying and occasionally messing up the minds of lower class, just for fun.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Versus View Post
              That is a good question.
              Judging from our perspective and our experience, first thing that will happen will be expulsion of Russia from decision making process in various groups and bodies, up to the UN itself. This will limit the Russian influence and give freedom to West to make decisions unilaterally. Since we all read king Zbiggy and Mackinder,we all know that this is a continuity of two centuries of same policies,so question will this be a start of a new cold war, seen from this perspective is a wrong question, simply because war never ended. According to Zibggy and Mac, war between West and the Russia is constant and it will end only with annihilation of one side or both of them. Second step in this geo strategy is lifting the sanctions towards Iran and maybe N. Korea and some how coming to terms with Assad. This will than complete the crescent around world island and leave the " heartland " isolated and left to disappear in a series of mini wars, internal conflict, poverty sickness and other things that will ultimately create internal pressure that will destroy the system from the inside. Once the "change" happen, heartland will be consumed and gnawed to the bone in a absolute orgy of easy credits, and other hedonistic fantasies, created by a bunch of people whom had too much free time and never had to lift anything heavier than a sliver spoon, whose daily life consists only out of golf, yachting, hunting foxes, shopping, driving golden cars, partying and occasionally messing up the minds of lower class, just for fun.
              You are in your optimism mood I see.
              No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

              To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                You are in your optimism mood I see.
                Oh yesss, very much
                As usual and as it was expected, the Albanians in the Southern Serbia want to join Kosovo taking two municipalities with them. You gotta love these chain reactions...
                Last edited by Versus; 18 Mar 14,, 21:14.

                Comment


                • #9
                  http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/19/wo...a-economy.html

                  YALTA, Crimea — Many A.T.M.s in this sun-dappled seaside resort city in Crimea, and across the region, have been empty in recent days, with little white “transaction denied” slips piling up around them. Banks that do have cash have been imposing severe restrictions on withdrawals.

                  All flights, other than those to or from Moscow, remain canceled in what could become the norm if the dispute over Crimea’s political status drags on, a chilling prospect just a month before tourist season begins in a place beloved as a vacation playground since czarist times.

                  Even with the West imposing sanctions to punish Russia’s invasion of Crimea, President Vladimir V. Putin faces a far steeper financial liability as he pushes to annex the peninsula, which lacks a self-sustaining economy and depends heavily on mainland Ukraine for vital services, including electricity and fresh water.

                  “Ukraine can quite easily cut off Crimea,” said Oleksandr Zholud, an economist with the International Center for Policy Studies in Kiev, the Ukrainian capital. “From an economic point of view it looks like a sinkhole.”
                  In January, the Crimean Parliament adopted a 2014 budget of about $540 million, of which about $300 million was expected to come from the central government in Kiev. Crimean officials in recent days have said they now expect Moscow to fill the gap.

                  The potentially large price tag has arisen at a time when Russia itself is bracing for a severe economic slowdown, making annexation a far more complicated calculation for Mr. Putin and his advisers despite huge public support for reclaiming primacy over Crimea.

                  Crimea and Russia have deep linguistic, historic and cultural ties, and the peninsula holds a nostalgic place in the minds of many Russians as a summer destination and popular retirement spot, where czars and Politburo chairmen kept vacation homes — including the last Soviet president, Mikhail S. Gorbachev, who was briefly exiled to his dacha in the Crimean town of Foros, overlooking the Black Sea, during a coup attempt in 1991.

                  Russia’s regional development minister, Igor N. Slyunayev, has offered a sobering assessment of the peninsula’s infrastructure needs.

                  “The peninsula is not self-sufficient when it comes to the entire group of vitally important resources — first of all, electricity and water,” Mr. Slyunayev said in a question-and-answer interview with the Russian newspaper Kommersant. “About 80 percent of water comes to its territory through the northern Crimean canal from the Dnieper River. Also, 80 percent of Crimea depends on imports of electricity.”

                  In a bleak bottom-line assessment that many residents here would dispute, Mr. Slyunayev said, “Today, our Crimea looks no better than Palestine.”

                  The authorities here have waved aside concerns about public salaries, pensions and other costs, saying Moscow will cover them. But while Mr. Putin and Russian lawmakers have made reassuring statements, including some promises of more than $1 billion in immediate aid, there are no guarantees.

                  Russia is facing its own fiscal challenges in the months and years ahead, as revenue growth from oil and natural gas is projected to slow precipitously and the Kremlin confronts big bills from salary increases for the police, the military and other public workers that preceded Mr. Putin’s return to the presidency in 2012.

                  The financial costs are just one reason that annexation is easier said than done.

                  Fully absorbing Crimea is a potentially herculean undertaking, which would require issuing new passports, changing the currency to rubles from Ukrainian hryvnias, and integrating completely distinct systems for property records, taxes, legal disputes and more.

                  The process is also fraught with risks, including the possibility that the Ukrainian government could move to further isolate the geographically remote peninsula by shutting vital transportation lines.

                  There is no overland transportation link between Russia and Crimea, and building a bridge across the shortest waterway, near the Crimean city of Kerch, would take years and cost an estimated $3 billion to $5 billion.

                  The costs for Russia — and for Crimeans — could also rise sharply, experts said, if political instability disrupts the peninsula’s major industries, particularly tourism and banking, which are already suffering.

                  A.T.M.'s have been empty as banks, most based in mainland Ukraine, face obstacles delivering currency, and grapple with mounting concerns about long-term business risks. If world leaders refuse to recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea, flights could be restricted for years, as they are in northern Cyprus, which has direct air links only with Turkey.

                  At a minimum, Kiev’s strong leverage over utilities and other vital services stands to force the Kremlin into negotiations with the new Ukrainian leaders whom Mr. Putin has denounced as illegitimate and has so far refused to meet.

                  Last week, in a meeting with the country’s top economic officials, including the ministers of finance and economics and the head of the central bank, Mr. Putin expressed his own concerns about Russia’s financial prospects.

                  “Let me say that the current and forecast growth rates the government has given cannot satisfy us in any way,” he said, according to a Kremlin transcript. “We must step up the pace of development.

                  “Above all, we need to maintain the existing general macroeconomic stability,” Mr. Putin said. “We need to be ready to respond rapidly to both internal and external risks — and they are not getting any fewer — ensure that the budgets at all levels are executed and keep inflation at an acceptably low level.”

                  Mr. Slyunayev, the regional development minister, said he believed that the government in Kiev would be reasonable and not cut off essential services but might begin charging for water and electric service. “Ukrainian authorities will not provoke a humanitarian crisis,” he told Kommersant.

                  While financial markets reacted with tentative calm to the Crimean secession vote, the economic sanctions announced by the United States and Europe, and the prospect of a renewed cold war with the West, present just the type of external risk that could destabilize the Russian economy at a moment of vulnerability, experts said.

                  One immediate risk is a continued decline in foreign investment, though the fear of sanctions may result in a positive effect for Russia by driving home assets that Russian citizens and businesses had stockpiled overseas.

                  “Private sector capital flight may have been partially neutralized by the return of official assets,” Timothy Ash, an analyst with Standard Bank, wrote in a note to clients on Monday offering analysis in the aftermath of the referendum here.

                  Some Crimeans said they were already feeling the financial sting from political instability.

                  As crowds in the cities of Simferopol and Sevastopol held raucous celebrations well into Monday morning after the vote, here in Yalta, Ihor B., the owner of a small travel business, went to bed with a growing sense of dread: The roughly two dozen bookings that he had received since the start of the year had all disappeared.

                  “I got 10 requests from Germany, and 10 assignments from Ukrainian agencies for Western tourists; a couple of requests from Dutch tourists and cruise ships,” said Mr. B, who asked that his last name not be used for fear of reprisal by the new Russian government. “At the moment, all of them, absolutely all of them, are canceled.”

                  Mr. B., whose two grown children live and work in Kiev, said the majority of tourists who visited Crimea came from mainland Ukraine. They are likely to go to Odessa or other destinations this year, because of fear over the political unrest, he said.

                  Boris Perederko, the deputy director of the Bristol Hotel here, said he supported the outcome of the referendum, even though guest bookings were down.

                  “This year will be a very complicated, very unclear year,” Mr. Perederko said. “A revolution has happened, figuratively speaking.”

                  As for Crimea’s future as a resort destination, he said: “People come here to spend their money and we try to earn this money. That’s normal. Now, it is just a moment of high suspicion.”
                  In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

                  Leibniz

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Ukraine: U.S. Pulls Back, Agrees To Russian Demands

                    The Russian language will be again official language next to the Ukrainian, the regions will have high autonomy, there will be no interferences in church affairs and the Ukraine will stay politically and militarily neutral. Any autonomy decision by the Crimea would be accepted. This would all be guaranteed by a “Support Group for Ukraine” consisting of the US, EU and Russia and would be cemented in an UN Security Council resolution.
                    The Russian (non public) threat to also immediately take the eastern and southern provinces from the Ukraine has pushed the U.S. into agreeing to the Russian conditions mentioned above.
                    Not sure if this is true we will see. The threat is credible. It is possible for Russia to take South-East, there is popular support.

                    If this happens my guess there will be two aspects.
                    1) Western Ukraine (Halychina) may rebel and will have to be put down
                    2) Whom would lead this kind of country? it seems nobody anywhere near gov't today is ready to do go after and clean up this kind of mess. Yet, execution of quieting things down, getting the streets clear of mob rule and general lawlessness would require some sort of 'gumption'. The only person I could see doing it is Poroshenko but his business lean does not seem to be likely to go ruthlessly after problems. Medvedchuk on the other hand would be very satisfactory on this arena for Russia at least.
                    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by cyppok View Post
                      Ukraine: U.S. Pulls Back, Agrees To Russian Demands





                      Not sure if this is true we will see. The threat is credible. It is possible for Russia to take South-East, there is popular support.

                      If this happens my guess there will be two aspects.
                      1) Western Ukraine (Halychina) may rebel and will have to be put down
                      2) Whom would lead this kind of country? it seems nobody anywhere near gov't today is ready to do go after and clean up this kind of mess. Yet, execution of quieting things down, getting the streets clear of mob rule and general lawlessness would require some sort of 'gumption'. The only person I could see doing it is Poroshenko but his business lean does not seem to be likely to go ruthlessly after problems. Medvedchuk on the other hand would be very satisfactory on this arena for Russia at least.
                      There is another source from Japan confirming the same.. seems like Obama did flinched.

                      Russia bets unrest in Ukraine's east will push U.S., EU to make deal | The Japan Times

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        :confu:

                        Would that include Crimea going back?

                        All that posture over nothing?

                        If true, there goes all the talk of reliability of US help, a curse Russia had until now.
                        No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                        To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                          What happens if Russia goes from responsive stance to a proactive one, namely if they start imposing sanctions like freezing all foreign assets on Russian soil and stop energy export at once?

                          I know they will be hurt financially, but what's couple of hundred of billions to show them Westerners we mean business?

                          After all, they did it all nice and dandy without body bags and look how the West treats them.
                          Then this happens....


                          Smoot

                          It would destroy the Russian economy a lot faster than the economies of Western Europe, Japan and the USA.
                          “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                          Mark Twain

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
                            Then this happens....


                            Smoot

                            It would destroy the Russian economy a lot faster than the economies of Western Europe, Japan and the USA.
                            I have no doubts it will cripple Russian economy, but it will sure drain many of the Europeans, too. All the hoopla going on at the moment gives a clear advantage to the only big country that stays out of all this.
                            No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                            To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                              I have no doubts it will cripple Russian economy, but it will sure drain many of the Europeans, too. All the hoopla going on at the moment gives a clear advantage to the only big country that stays out of all this.
                              China.
                              Those who know don't speak
                              He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

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