indianguy4u

Any takers for this article?

http://english1.people.com.cn/200505...24_186532.html

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Shek

There are a few things that come to mind in general:

1) China doesn't publish truthful statistics on their defense expenditures, so estimates are required, which may or may not be fully on target
2) China's rhetoric over Taiwan and increased naval presence are not peaceful and defensive overtures
3) China has sustained a large increase in defense expenditures over the past few years, so the trend itself is disconcerting
4) Forcing down an EP-3 and buzzing others with their fighter jets

As far as the article goes, I think some of its conclusions are derived from blogs on the far right and far left and are laughable:

1) The war on terror is almost over (thanks to the Honorable Ms. Pelosi)
2) It's an excuse to line the pockets of the military-industrial complex
3) We need a strategic enemy now!

indianguy4u

What about (acc to article) US blackmailing Taiwan into buying its weapons?

Shek

I must have skipped over that part. Let's see, I live on an island only miles away from my archenemy who is developing a large naval fleet and cruise missiles capable of destroying me. Please don't force me into buying weapons that I can use to defend myself. The article also doesn't mention some of the defiant language used by the Taiwainese leader (I can't remember whether they have a President or Prime Minister). Anyways, IIRC, Bush had to have him tone down the rhetoric lest he start a war. I'd say that they bought the weapons more than willingly. I could be wrong as I am no China expert, but the minimal amount of stuff that I've read leads me to believe that the People's Daily is publishing as much "truth" as Pravda used to.

Major Dad

Exactly, the PRC does a far better job of blackmailing Taiwan into buying US weapons than the US ever could.

As for Chinese weapons acquisitions, I think the best indicator is the fact that the EU will almost certainly drop their ban on weapons sales to China by the end of the year. They obviously believe there is money to be made in the Middle Kingdom.

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Officer of Engineers

Mostly because of dickheads like General Zhu.

Top Chinese general warns US over attack
By Alexandra Harney in Beijing and Demetri Sevastopulo and Edward Alden in Washington
Published: July 14 2005 21:59 | Last updated: July 15 2005 00:03

China is prepared to use nuclear weapons against the US if it is attacked by Washington during a confrontation over Taiwan, a Chinese general said on Thursday.

“If the Americans draw their missiles and position-guided ammunition on to the target zone on China's territory, I think we will have to respond with nuclear weapons,” said General Zhu Chenghu.

Gen Zhu was speaking at a function for foreign journalists organised, in part, by the Chinese government. He added that China's definition of its territory included warships and aircraft.

“If the Americans are determined to interfere [then] we will be determined to respond,” said Gen Zhu, who is also a professor at China's National Defence University.

“We . . . will prepare ourselves for the destruction of all of the cities east of Xian. Of course the Americans will have to be prepared that hundreds . . . of cities will be destroyed by the Chinese.”

Gen Zhu is a self-acknowledged “hawk” who has warned that China could strike the US with long-range missiles. But his threat to use nuclear weapons in a conflict over Taiwan is the most specific by a senior Chinese official in nearly a decade.

However, some US-based China experts cautioned that Gen Zhu probably did not represent the mainstream People's Liberation Army view.

“He is running way beyond his brief on what China might do in relation to the US if push comes to shove,” said one expert with knowledge of Gen Zhu. “Nobody who is cleared for information on Chinese war scenarios is going to talk like this,” he added.

Gen Zhu's comments come as the Pentagon prepares to brief Congress next Monday on its annual report on the Chinese military, which is expected to take a harder line than previous years. They are also likely to fuel the mounting anti-China sentiment on Capitol Hill.

In recent months, a string of US officials, including Donald Rumsfeld, defence secretary, have raised concerns about China's military rise. The Pentagon on Thursday declined to comment on “hypothetical scenarios”.

Rick Fisher, a former senior US congressional official and an authority on the Chinese military, said the specific nature of the threat “is a new addition to China's public discourse”. China's official doctrine has called for no first use of nuclear weapons since its first atomic test in 1964. But Gen Zhu is not the first Chinese official to refer to the possibility of using such weapons first in a conflict over Taiwan.

Chas Freeman, a former US assistant secretary of defence, said in 1996 that a PLA official had told him China could respond in kind to a nuclear strike by the US in the event of a conflict with Taiwan. The official is believed to have been Xiong Guangkai, now the PLA's deputy chief of general staff.

Gen Zhu said his views did not represent official Chinese policy and he did not anticipate war with the US.

Additional reporting by Richard McGregor in Beijing

Officer of Engineers

I like to put some perspective on the Chinese military program. In the past ten years only had the Chinese military budgets grown above mere survival levels. Though the Chinese had bought alot of weapons, alot more money went to fix leaking roofs and fixing the indoor plumbing and a few luxury items (heat in winter).

Even at $70bil US, the Chinese could not even hope to arm 10% of its force with the state-of-the-art systems. Yes, they made some impressive purchases but brand new SU-27/33/whatever are sitting more often than flying and KILO subs had more dry dock time than sea time.

Training budgets are extremely limited. With the exceptions of the Rapid Deployment Forces, most exercises are rehersals, not problem solving. And RDF qualifications is once every 3-4 years.

On the surface, the PLA is an impressive force. But look under the hood, there's alot to be desired.

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indianguy4u

OoE,
Aren't u underestimating the chinese too much?

platinum786

Office of Engineers made an extremly valid point about the surface value of chinese forces, and under the hood....

what the threat is that if the stuff under the hood gets replaced, you might end up with a real threat.

Ray

Colonel,

You make the Chinese look like a Punch and Judy show.

While they are not capable of overseas operations, do you think that they are a pushover?

I wonder if any nation can launch an expeditionary operation on China in a conventional war profile.

THe moot point is to even threaten China, it can only be in a stand off profile initially i.e. nuclear and then maybe a close in is possible.

These are just off the cuff comments and I sure would like to know your views.

One must not underestimate the resolve of the common masses.

Officer of Engineers

Sir,

My apologies for a delay reply. It was one of those "what happenned and I don't know what I did" weekends.

The truth is, Sir, that the PLA knows its a Punch and Judy show. Alot of legacy thinking, weapons, organization, and just a general mess from the Great Proliterate Cultural Revolution.

Those in charge are trying to just deal with the nuts and bolts issue (reduce the communist lectures, increase training time, and fix that leaky roof and toilet) and those who wants to be in charge are trying to show that they could do a better job (with all those crazy scenarios about nukes, computer viruses, assasin's mace). In other words, Sir, their army is just as screwed up as yours and mine (and everybody else's).

Sir, no one is going to invade China. However, my point is that they're not up to par even on what they want to do. Just on Friday, officially for the 1st time, we're told the PLA is moving towards the corps-brigade-battalion model which surprised the hell out of CDF. We have not seen any exercise or documentation concerning battalion.

The PLA is best described as a work-in-progress.

Why not, Sir? I'm sure the InA is more than capable of waging offensive combat operations in its Area of Operations against the Chinese. The same goes for the Russians.

Sir, it is not us who is threatening China but it is us who are standing in China's way, more specifically, the Taiwan issue.

However, as a historic note, despite recent Chinese rhetoric about using nukes, Chinese nukes had NEVER been primed for an exchange. Ours and the Russians had.

That the Chinese are willing to fight is a given. That they will win is not.

Ray

Thanks.

Semper Fi

Anyone know if Chinese nukes can reach the US?

leib10

They might reach Hawaii or maybe the Western seaboard. I'm not sure about the exact range of the Chinese missiles, whatever kind they are.

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EricTheRed

better to overestimate than under

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