UnderSpin

I agree that stability and economic development is keeping the country together, and the emerging middle class in China is pressing the government for more freedom and transition to democracy.
I don’t expect anything like a French Revolution.

In my opinion, the biggest threat to China is its own military force. Military leaders are still observing the traditional personal loyalty to some elders, and these elders who have real political and military influence are often out of touch with the modern world. The Culture Revolution would not have happened without the backing of the elders. The Tiananmen Square incident would not have happened if these elders had a different opinion. (More comments on #22) The warlord history of China makes this threat much more alarming.

I also see the culture decay and the lack of a unifying “civilization” a big problem down the road. Taiwan has mostly Han Chinese. We don’t believe the ethnic identity and China’s power, economically or politically, are sufficient reasons for us to live under their government.

Officer of Engineers

I disagree. The PLA is becoming more and more professional. We have seen for the 1st time since Lin Bao, the professional soldier instead of the revolutionary soldier.

Tianamen was an illegal order according to both the PRC's laws and the CCP's own doctrine. Those Generals who refused to obey the order did so out because it constituted a direct violation of their own rules ... but who was going to over-rule Deng Xia Peng?

Since General Cao had become the Minister of Defence, he sought and got confirmation that Tianamen Square style orders were both illegal and would never be issued again. It also helps when he is also the head of the Central Military Commission, the National HQ.

This has borned out that the PLA refused to get involve in Tibet ... and had the strength necessary to stay out.

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Chimo

Blademaster

It helped a lot when the prior leader of China forced the PLA to get out of business and into the real gritty business of military planning, logistics, and training of warfare.

Officer of Engineers

Hehehehehehe,

Hitesh, do you remember when you 1st came to CMF when the PLA was still doing more farming than soldiering? The PLA was so poor back then that they couldn't even to afford to buy food and had to raise their own crops and pigs.

Blademaster

Yep I remember looking at a picture of a PLA soldier handling a pig.
However it does have its benefits. You regaled us with stories of the best chow hall in the world in Beijing.

UnderSpin

I am sure that PLA has become more professional. It’s also encouraging to see westerners having faith in PLA’s discipline and professionalism

However, the Chinese culture put so much emphasis on personal loyalty that expecting the generals to put whatever rules or laws ahead of personal loyalty requires too much faith. This is not just in the military; this “code of conduct” exists in every aspect of the society. Employees are often asked by their bosses to bend rules in their work, government employees and party officials bend rules for their superiors or their self interests, and even the judiciary system bends the law to please the establishment. Powerful people in China are almost beyond the law. (Chinese folks, please correct me if I am wrong.)

PLA’s refusal to get involved in Tibet is a good thing. But if I put on my cynical glasses, I’ll see that they are doing it for their self interest. Staying where they are they can probably make personal gains in economic development in the area. Suppression of Tibetans may put their personal career in danger. That seems to be an easy choice. After all, political leaders maintain political control for their self interest, how much can you expect military leaders to set aside their self interest?

Emotionally, I hope you are right. Military involvement in civil affairs will be a terrible thing. I just don’t have a lot of faith in their military leaders. Perhaps some Chinese have an inside reading?

astralis

underspin,

if that were true the PLA would have been running things since 1949.

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Never let the future disturb you. You will meet it, if you have to, with the same weapons of reason which today arm you against the present.

-Marcus Aurelius, Meditations

UnderSpin

PLA has been running thing since 1949. Their positions have been critical to major events, like the Culture Revolution and Tiananmen Square incident. The real question is whether the newer generation of military leaders is professional enough to behave differently, as OOE stated.

I can only make my point from a cultural point of view. As much as I hate it, guilty by association is a standard mindset in Chinese culture. This mindset reinforces personal loyalty, which in turn validates the mindset. You can actually see the current nationalism another expression of the same mindset: “We are all Han Chinese and we are all attacked.” I am still waiting for indications that military leaders will behave differently.

Ray

Given the Middle Empire mindset, there is no doubt that there could be the feeling that it is a slight to the Han culture and identity. This would naturally evoke strong sentiments.

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"Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination."

I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to.

HAKUNA MATATA

astralis

underspin,

critical, yes, but not complete control. this isn't the red guards we're talking about.

i would argue that on an organizational basis the PLA was less suspectible to personal politics than other organizations within the CCP. the CCP had learned its lesson well given the results when chiang kai-shek didn't crack down on personal politics within the KMT army. but in any case, yes, i do believe that the PLA has a ways to go in making itself fully professional.

i don't see how the current mentality is reflective of personal loyalty; that's just modern-day nationalism for you. in fact, if the standard mindset of personal loyalty were true, then we'd be seeing the warlord era all over again, not what we have today.