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Old 05-03-2008, 11:49 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Ideology's Rude Return - China and Russia

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Ideology's Rude Return


By Robert Kagan
Friday, May 2, 2008; Page A21

Ideology matters again. The big development of recent years is the rise not only of great powers but also of the great-power autocracies of Russia and China. True realism about the international scene begins with understanding how this unanticipated shift will shape our world.

Many believe that when Chinese and Russian leaders stopped believing in communism, they stopped believing in anything. They had become pragmatists, pursuing their own and their nation's interests. But Chinese and Russian rulers, like past rulers of autocracies, do have a set of beliefs that guide their domestic and foreign policies. They believe in the virtues of strong central government and disdain the weaknesses of the democratic system. They believe strong rule at home is necessary if their nations are to be respected in the world. Chinese and Russian leaders are not just autocrats. They believe in autocracy.

And why shouldn't they? In Russia and China, growing national wealth and autocracy have proved compatible, contrary to predictions in the liberal West. Moscow and Beijing have figured out how to permit open economic activity while suppressing political activity. People making money will keep their noses out of politics, especially if they know their noses will be cut off if they don't. New wealth gives autocracies a greater ability to control information -- to monopolize television stations and control Internet traffic, for instance -- often with the assistance of foreign corporations eager to do business with them.

In the long run, rising prosperity may produce political liberalism, but how long is the long run? It may be too long to have strategic or geopolitical relevance.

In the meantime, the power and durability of these autocracies will shape the international system. The world is not about to embark on a new ideological struggle of the sort that dominated the Cold War. But the new era, rather than being a time of common values and shared interests, will be one of growing tensions and sometimes confrontation between the forces of democracy and those of autocracy.

If autocracies have their own set of beliefs, they also have their own set of interests. China's and Russia's rulers are pragmatic chiefly in protecting their continued rule. Their interest in self-preservation shapes their approach to foreign policy.

Russia is a good example of how a nation's governance affects its relations with the world. A democratizing Russia, and even Mikhail Gorbachev's democratizing Soviet Union, took a fairly benign view of NATO and tended to have good relations with neighbors that were treading the same path toward democracy. But Vladimir Putin regards NATO as a hostile entity, calls its enlargement "a serious provocation" and asks "against whom is this expansion intended?" Yet NATO is less provocative and threatening toward Moscow today than it was in Gorbachev's time.

So what is it that Putin fears about NATO? It is not the military power. It is the democracy.

The post-Cold War world looks different from autocratic Beijing and Moscow than it does from democratic Washington, London, Paris, Berlin or Brussels. The "color revolutions" in Georgia and Ukraine, so celebrated in the West, worried Putin because they checked his regional ambitions and because he feared their examples could be repeated in Russia. Even today he warns against "jackals" in Russia who "got a crash course from foreign experts, got trained in neighboring republics and will try here now."

American and European policymakers say they want Russia and China to integrate into the international liberal order, but it is not surprising if Russian and Chinese leaders are wary. Can autocrats enter the liberal international order without succumbing to the forces of liberalism?

Afraid of the answer, the autocracies are understandably pushing back, with some effect. Autocracy is making a comeback. The modern liberal mind at "the end of history" has trouble understanding the enduring appeal of autocracy in this globalized world. But changes in the ideological complexion of the most influential world powers have always had some effect on the choices made by leaders of smaller nations. Fascism was in vogue in Latin America in the 1930s and '40s partly because it seemed successful in Italy, Germany and Spain. The rising power of democracies in the last years of the Cold War, culminating in communism's collapse after 1989, contributed to the global wave of democratization. The rise of two powerful autocracies may shift the balance back again.

Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, welcomes the return of ideological competition. "For the first time in many years," he boasts, "a real competitive environment has emerged on the market of ideas" between different "value systems and development models." And the good news, from the Kremlin's perspective, is that "the West is losing its monopoly on the globalization process."

All this comes as an unwelcome surprise to a democratic world that believed such competition ended when the Berlin Wall fell. It's time to wake up from the dream.

Robert Kagan, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, writes a monthly column for The Post. His latest book is "The Return of History and the End of Dreams."

washingtonpost.com
So, in the end, nothing changes!!
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Old 05-03-2008, 15:10 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Grave news, isn't it? Fortunately, the reality is quite different. Well, at least in China (I have no idea of Russians).

The author is right about the fade of ideology. CCP has evolved into a pragmatic authority, with the main goal to protect their continued rule. They had success in the economic reform, but it also leads to less effective propagandas, individual intellectual thinkings and inevitably social and political awareness.

Being pragmatic, CCP has to make numerous compromise in order to keep its rule, shaping the current Chinese society. Among the most prominent ones are: free speech, the evolution of education, admission of Capitalists and mid-class into the party, and the legislation of private property protection.

Details inc... has to work for the moment
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Old 05-03-2008, 15:18 PM   #3 (permalink)
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It still is Party reign over Individual aspirations!
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Old 05-03-2008, 17:03 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Grave news, isn't it? Fortunately, the reality is quite different. Well, at least in China (I have no idea of Russians).

The author is right about the fade of ideology. CCP has evolved into a pragmatic authority, with the main goal to protect their continued rule. They had success in the economic reform, but it also leads to less effective propagandas, individual intellectual thinkings and inevitably social and political awareness.

Being pragmatic, CCP has to make numerous compromise in order to keep its rule, shaping the current Chinese society. Among the most prominent ones are: free speech, the evolution of education, admission of Capitalists and mid-class into the party, and the legislation of private property protection.

Details inc... has to work for the moment
The Communist Party has gone for a softer form of domination than existed in Mao's day, with the goal of shaping the newfound nationalist sentiment of the Chinese population to the Communist Parties ends... much the way Bismark and the autocracy of the Kaisers did in Germany.

China is controlling the information and spin that reaches the Chinese population in order to produce a desired result... over the long term, that is a much more effective way to rule than the old Stalinist and Maoist models.
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Old 05-03-2008, 23:12 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by lwarmonger View Post
The Communist Party has gone for a softer form of domination than existed in Mao's day, with the goal of shaping the newfound nationalist sentiment of the Chinese population to the Communist Parties ends... much the way Bismark and the autocracy of the Kaisers did in Germany.

China is controlling the information and spin that reaches the Chinese population in order to produce a desired result... over the long term, that is a much more effective way to rule than the old Stalinist and Maoist models.
Yes, they are trying to creat a more open environment not only ecnomonical-wise also political-wise. And actually to free the media and thoughts is not as horrible as they expected, you still can create propaganda and lead the mainstreams of thoughts, and this takes time to learn.
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Old 05-04-2008, 00:30 AM   #6 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by lwarmonger View Post
The Communist Party has gone for a softer form of domination than existed in Mao's day, with the goal of shaping the newfound nationalist sentiment of the Chinese population to the Communist Parties ends... much the way Bismark and the autocracy of the Kaisers did in Germany.

China is controlling the information and spin that reaches the Chinese population in order to produce a desired result... over the long term, that is a much more effective way to rule than the old Stalinist and Maoist models.
This is true, but I would say CCP is forced to do these rather than a well planed shrift. They are reluctant to change and the political change always lag behind the economic development.

Say the evolution of text books I have gone through. they were pretty the same propaganda as it was 50 years ago when I was in the primary school, full of stuff about Soviet leaders and war heroes of PLA, even in math problems. That is already in the 90's. Of course as a kit, I don't even know what they are talking about, but it really amuses me now.

Then came the middle school, after several revise of the text books, these ridiculous stories finally went away. However, political and historical classes are still dominated by propagandas. But guess what? Most schools focuses on math, physics, English class, so that their students can be competitive in the infamous National College Entrance Exams. No one were serious learning these propagandas, and those who actually did, were usually mocked by others (me, for one , damn free speech, I was just curious).

By the time of college, propaganda classes are so under presented that the lecturers themselves got embarrassed. These didn't get replaced after the complains went public for many years. And the new softer versions, although a lot better, are still apparently biased. The result? CCP has lost trust among the young, failing to recruit a single member in my class.

Controlling the information and spin that reaches the Chinese population in order to produce a desired result? A miserable failure domestically, well at least seems to me. You may be alarmed by the national emotions all over the world lately, but if you look closely those are actually more free minded Chinese who has been living in the west, even Taiwanese. The reactions of "brain-washed" domestics are actually milder. CCP even attempts to pacify the anger in the fear of foreign relationship by heavy censoring of any "anit-French" content. They are run by capitalists nowadays who cares more about their own wallets.

The whole point is, CCP is now actually driven by the free market rather than drive it as they had hoped.
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Old 05-04-2008, 01:08 AM   #7 (permalink)
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My read is a lot different. The CCP is absolutely terrified of its population. There has been NO government sponsored parade, protest, nor rally. The Han-Chinese reaction is genuine and without government involvement. Beijing is now trying to avoid what happened during the Belgrade Embassy bombing and the EP-3 incident. You will all note that the police were in front of the French Embassy the day after the Paris torch incident.

It's very easy to stir up Han-Chinese nationalism. It's also very easy to lose control of Han-Chinese nationalism and the first group that Han-Chinese nationalism will demand answers from is the CCP ... and they have no answers.
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Old 05-04-2008, 16:26 PM   #8 (permalink)
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My read is a lot different. The CCP is absolutely terrified of its population. There has been NO government sponsored parade, protest, nor rally. The Han-Chinese reaction is genuine and without government involvement. Beijing is now trying to avoid what happened during the Belgrade Embassy bombing and the EP-3 incident. You will all note that the police were in front of the French Embassy the day after the Paris torch incident.

It's very easy to stir up Han-Chinese nationalism. It's also very easy to lose control of Han-Chinese nationalism and the first group that Han-Chinese nationalism will demand answers from is the CCP ... and they have no answers.
Exactly, and I have a deep concern over this issue. Blind nationalism can be very dangerous. CCP has long been employing nationalism in their propaganda, especially after the fade of Communist ideologies. They hope to get more acknowledgement by riding the tiger.

The result has not been what they hoped. The strong "anti-west" emotion gives no credit to Communist, which is western ideas in the first place. It also leads to unfriendly reaction to the west, who are the biggest trading partners of China. Terrified of this consequence, CCP has been adopting "harmonious" propagandas advocating "Rational Nationalism", international peace and communication. Domestically, CCP is trying hard to change its identity into "Chinese" instead of "Communist", which has been proven difficult given its nature.

Nationalism plus anti-west emotions, no wonders the strong reaction of Han Chinese all over the world. Strong nationalism has been helpful in South Korea's development, but I wonders what it would bring to the world if its a country of 13 billion. Personally I support CCP's attempt in pacifying the resentment to the west, even though you can call it "suppression". They played a role causing it, they should take the responsibility to remedy the issue.
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