China-Tibet Threads

[firestar]

India in the red
Raghu Dayal / New Delhi June 15, 2008, 2:52 IST

China is creating a ring of anti-Indian influences in the South Asian neighbourhood that signifies strategic encirclement and containment of India.

The Rise of Great Nations, a documentary telecast recently in China elicited considerable interest among strategy thinkers across the world. Close on its heels, Chinese President Hu Jintao showed up in military fatigues to make an ominous advocacy of a powerful navy for "sound preparations for military struggles" and for the strategic objective of "comprehensive national power" extending and expanding its global presence. China's urge to fly the national flag ever farther afield is evident in its eagerness to demonstrate its rapid "remarkable leap", in the pace and fervour with which it amasses sophisticated weaponry, in the way it equips its 2.3 million strong PLA, and in extending its presence to the Malacca Straits and the Indian Ocean.

The Chinese juggernaut has rolled on for a quarter of a century with its incredible economic upsurge. With its GDP galloping to $1.7 trillion, it is already the world's sixth-largest economy and the world's third-largest exporting country after Germany and the US. Its foreign exchange reserves exceed $1 trillion. Its rapid economic growth has been largely concentrated in the coastal areas. Its long-range maritime interests have drawn it to look beyond being a continental land power to a sea power as well. In tune with its strategy of "oceanic offensive", its ambitions in the Indian Ocean are described in the Chinese circles as "China's next frontier".

China is busy creating a new dynamism all along an axis that spans the continent of Eurasia. The Dark Continent has been wooed with aid to African countries, where it is buying oil and gas, minerals and materials for its bourgeoning industry. It has been busy developing multimodal connectivity all along the borders and inside the neighbouring countries as a strategic measure and to facilitate trade flows. Thus, rail and road links have sprouted along and inside Pakistan, Myanmar, Vietnam and Nepal. Overtures have been made to extend the Golmud-Lhasa rail line, the world's highest railway, to Nepal. The Beijing-Lhasa rail link has serious strategic implications vis-à-vis India's sparse infrastructure in its mountainous territories all along the border in the North-East.

In some countries like Cambodia, China clearly aims to assure its access to natural resources. It has offered loans for a deep-sea port at Sihanoukville that would allow it a convenient delivery point for its West Asia oil imports. Cambodia has granted China the rights to one of its five offshore oilfields. China has also offered a $600 million credit to Cambodia for two major bridges near the capital Phnom Penh that will link it to a network of roads, besides a hydropower plant, and a fibre optic network to connect Cambodia's telecom with that of Vietnam and Thailand.

China has been willing to take on complicated infrastructure projects in distant areas. It has sunk more than a dozen concrete pylons across the tributary of the mighty Mekong river, which will help knit together a 2,000-km route from the southern Chinese city of Kunming through Laos to the Cambodian port of Sihanoukville on the Gulf of Thailand. China is linked to Vietnam by two rail lines north of Hanoi. Singapore or Indonesia would be linked to the main Chinese south-north trunk rail line, running from Shenzen to Erenhot on the border with Mongolia, or the main Chinese east-west trunk line stretching from the port of Lianyungang on China's coast to Druzhba on the border with Kazakhstan.

China is fast establishing its presence in resource-rich Central Asian Republics (CAR). With its border just 260 km from Kyrgyzstan by road, China's growing commercial force is penetrating the remote lands beyond its western border. The flow of Chinese goods here has increased eight fold in the last five years to over $900 million and continues to rise fast. Its strategic orientation is also reflected in its linking the Xianjiang province with CAR. China's trade with the eight-member Central Asia Regional Economic Co-operation (CAREC) — Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Afghanistan, Mongolia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, besides China — has surged from $1 billion to $9.8 billion in the last decade.

China is developing an entire network of rail and highway infrastructure at a very rapid pace. The Korean Peninsula West Trade Corridor link already exists between the Busan port in South Korea and Shenyang in China via Seoul, Pyongyang and Sinuiju on the South Korean side and Dandong on the Chinese side. Some major projects have been envisaged for the proposed Trans-Asian Railway (TAR) corridor, in particular for a nearly 3,000-km standard (1,435 mm) gauge running along the Caspian Sea with a north-south branch of 700 km line across Turkmenistan to link up with the Iranian network. An important TAR component, the ASEAN-promoted Singapore–Kunming Rail Line project, is being avidly supported by China. It will provide China with a valuable pan-Asian rail linkage.

A ring of anti-Indian influence in the South Asian neighbourhood that China has been creating through military and economic assistance signifies strategic encirclement and containment of India. A steady erosion of India's presence in Southeast Asia with China's ascent largely by dint of "hard power" is visible in Myanmar more than in any other country in the region. The ongoing "Yunnanisation" of northern Myanmar is evidence of it. China is busy building the Irrawady Corridor, involving road, rail, river and energy transport links between the Yunnan and Myanmar ports. In resource-rich Myanmar, China is connecting the country's interior to its southern flank. Beijing is currently working on a deep-water port on Myanmar's west coast and has completed the site investigation for a 232-km Lashik-Muse/Rueli rail line in Myanmar. It is busy promoting the construction of the 120-km Kra Isthmus canal in Thailand that would reduce the sea leg of oil tankers from the Middle East by about 1,000 km and avoid the hazardous
Straits of Malacca. Likewise, China is busy completing another strategic corridor on India's western flank. Pakistan has access to Kashgar in China's Zianjiang province. It may have further linkage through Khunjerab Pass and Karakoram Highway to Kashgar.

It appears a clear promoter-catalyst for an important rail project to link the strategic Gwadar port promoted and aided by China and built by Pakistan on its south-west coast as well as an 800-km railway line proposed to connect Dalbandin on the Koh-i-Taftan (on Iranian border)-Spezand-Quetta-Chaman (on Afghanistan border) rail line. The proposal is to extend this rail link to Kashi in China, providing China and Pakistan a direct connection with Central Asian Republics. The rail link built on standard gauge will apparently suit China, while India's broad gauge (1,676 mm) will no longer be compatible with Pakistan's. It will thus isolate the Indian rail link.

These are developments of great significance for India. This is an obvious Chinese infrastructure overload around India – the great feat of a railway in Tibet in the north with the intention to link Nepal as well, a huge build-up of ports, roads and railways on India's eastern and western flanks, and, of course, China's growing presence in the Indian Ocean.

[Mobbme]

roflz, I wonder when this thread is going to be closed

[Oneday]

Originally Posted by firestar

India in the red
Raghu Dayal / New Delhi June 15, 2008, 2:52 IST

......

The Chinese juggernaut has rolled on for a quarter of a century with its incredible economic upsurge. With its GDP galloping to $1.7 trillion, it is already the world's sixth-largest economy and the world's third-largest exporting country after Germany and the US. Its foreign exchange reserves exceed $1 trillion. Its rapid economic growth has been largely concentrated in the coastal areas. Its long-range maritime interests have drawn it to look beyond being a continental land power to a sea power as well. In tune with its strategy of "oceanic offensive", its ambitions in the Indian Ocean are described in the Chinese circles as "China's next frontier".

......

Those data are pretty outdated, I just checked out the "CIA World Fact Book" and its data about China's GPD is $3.251 trillion (2007 est.) The $1.7 trillion mentioned in the article was in fact data of 2003. If this article did write in 2008, the author may be one of the laziest, and the article may need a complete revise. I mean this is a hint that other parts of the article may be flawed and outdated, too.

A little off the topic, to be honest, I know little about South Asia before. But when I went to India forums I could smell a strong sense of hostility toward China, Chinese were usually described as ruthless evils, is this a common sense of Indian people? What I do learned is that people from both Countries have little "real" idea about each other; this is really bad and only increased misunderstandings. Japan and China also have bad relationship but at least we know a lot about each other.

[yeung3939]

Originally Posted by gunnut

Do you know where most intelligence is gathered? Open sources. Libraries. Newspaper. Magazines. You gather all these things together, cut out all the over-the-top junk, and a picture will emerge.

OOE has been gathering stuff for decades, along with other China watchers. They don't make up stuff. They know the Chinese military better than most Chinese military.

But you always have to assume the sources are reliable, which may not be the case for China.

Chinese magazines and newspapers often make up stuffs.

If the Chinese government doesn't want you to know a particular thing, what can you do?

[gunnut]

Originally Posted by yeung3939

But you always have to assume the sources are reliable, which may not be the case for China.

Chinese magazines and newspapers often make up stuffs.

If the Chinese government doesn't want you to know a particular thing, what can you do?

They don't rely on the magazines and newspapers that you read. They rely on government documents and military publication that the public doesn't get. Even the pictures they get from the government is a treasure trove of information. I really suggest you read through CDF to see how these people arrive at their conclusions. That, is also intelligence gathering, on your part.

[yeung3939]

Originally Posted by gunnut

They don't rely on the magazines and newspapers that you read. They rely on government documents and military publication that the public doesn't get. Even the pictures they get from the government is a treasure trove of information. I really suggest you read through CDF to see how these people arrive at their conclusions. That, is also intelligence gathering, on your part.

That was why I asked him what kind of classified sources he relied on.

[Officer of Engineers]

Originally Posted by yeung3939

But you always have to assume the sources are reliable, which may not be the case for China.

Chinese magazines and newspapers often make up stuffs.

If the Chinese government doesn't want you to know a particular thing, what can you do?

You don't get it. CDF collects data. That's it. Whether it is true or not (and we have more than our fair share of those), the volume of data would lead to certain conclusion. A single article on the 140mm gun? Who cares. 10 different articles from 10 different sources at 10 different time periods - then it is something. Again, that is why CDF threads go back 10 years with 10s of 1000s of articles. We look for the pattern the articles suggest. Not the articles themsleves.

[Aniki]

Originally Posted by IceMan

Hoo, if warheads can't reach American cities, why US build NMD ?

oh please, when americans were formulating NMD, the chinese were starving at least 30mil to death during the great leap forward, thats late 1950's when the Nike-Zeus missiles were still around. when the americans were building the first NMD's, all across china people were in a frenzy worshipping mao and destroying cultural relics and artifects in china, thats during the cultural revolution. when americans were signing ABM treaties with russians regarding the NMD, the chinese were busy cleaning up the crap left by mao and trying to revive the already non-existant national economy. when americans were improving on the NMD system, china was busy making mince meat out of students at tiananmen square.

when was china ever in the picture concerning NMD? the threat was always from the polar bears.

[Officer of Engineers]

Originally Posted by Aniki

oh please, when americans were formulating NMD, the chinese were starving at least 30mil to death during the great leap forward,

I am so sick of this crap that everyone takes for the truth. The Chinese population did NOT go down by 30 million. In fact, it went up!

[Aniki]

Originally Posted by Nauticus

I just want to know the source of this sentence:

BTW,don't forget the fact that the GFW can be bypassed easliy in many ways,and lots of Chinese know it

that sentence was a remark made by me.

oh yes, i have lived long enuff in china to know how to get around things. the thing is, when working around the system becomes the norm, whats the point of having the system in the first place? and that proves it. strong censorship, no freedom of speech, thoughts and beliefs. some might even want to call it brainwashing, whatever.

[Aniki]

Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers

I am so sick of this crap that everyone takes for the truth. The Chinese population did NOT go down by 30 million. In fact, it went up!

sorry sir, u probably read the edited info. chinese population went stagnant for almost 2 full yrs and went down on one. given the fact that chinese population increased by 10-12mil a yr at that time, and chinese doesnt enjoy migration/emigration, 30mil is probably an understatement.

in fact, various(more than 10) quotes from memoirs of chinese leaders, including prominent central govt officials, provincial governors, heads of state like Liu shaoqi, head of chinese police departments, and various internal reports published decades later and CCP history texts, quote the number around 30-40mil. recent official chinese govt backed publications like 'history of chinese demography'('zhongguo renkou shi', 5 vols) written by scholars from a certain shanghai university, quote the number around 32mil.

[yeung3939]

Originally Posted by Aniki

sorry sir, u probably read the edited info. chinese population went stagnant for almost 2 full yrs and went down on one. given the fact that chinese population increased by 10-12mil a yr at that time, and chinese doesnt enjoy migration/emigration, 30mil is probably an understatement.

in fact, various(more than 10) quotes from memoirs of chinese leaders, including prominent central govt officials, provincial governors, heads of state like Liu shaoqi, head of chinese police departments, and various internal reports published decades later and CCP history texts, quote the number around 30-40mil. recent official chinese govt backed publications like 'history of chinese demography'('zhongguo renkou shi', 5 vols) written by scholars from a certain shanghai university, quote the number around 32mil.

Are you talking about the Cultural Revolution? The Cultural Revolution is certainly a disaster. Stupid CCP.

[yeung3939]

Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers

You don't get it. CDF collects data. That's it. Whether it is true or not (and we have more than our fair share of those), the volume of data would lead to certain conclusion. A single article on the 140mm gun? Who cares. 10 different articles from 10 different sources at 10 different time periods - then it is something. Again, that is why CDF threads go back 10 years with 10s of 1000s of articles. We look for the pattern the articles suggest. Not the articles themsleves.

Sorry, I don't get it.

Where are datas untimately from?
Even if you draw conclusion from hundreds of articles (which may not be reliable after all), you are still guessing unless you have access to classifed documents. Thanks.

[Officer of Engineers]

Originally Posted by yeung3939

Sorry, I don't get it.

Where are datas untimately from?
Even if you draw conclusion from hundreds of articles (which may not be reliable after all), you are still guessing unless you have access to classifed documents. Thanks.

For one, if we have access to hundreds of articles, we would have a regimental badge, a plane number, or a ship number. That is as official as it gets.

[Officer of Engineers]

Originally Posted by Aniki

sorry sir, u probably read the edited info. chinese population went stagnant for almost 2 full yrs and went down on one. given the fact that chinese population increased by 10-12mil a yr at that time, and chinese doesnt enjoy migration/emigration, 30mil is probably an understatement.

in fact, various(more than 10) quotes from memoirs of chinese leaders, including prominent central govt officials, provincial governors, heads of state like Liu shaoqi, head of chinese police departments, and various internal reports published decades later and CCP history texts, quote the number around 30-40mil. recent official chinese govt backed publications like 'history of chinese demography'('zhongguo renkou shi', 5 vols) written by scholars from a certain shanghai university, quote the number around 32mil.

They termed it population loss. Have you ever considered that people simply decided not to have children? Given that 15 years were WWII history where there were no census, it is highly dubious that anyone can state with any certainty what China's population was doing.

This is the 1st, last, and only time in history where historians classified non-births as deaths. I have not come across any other population statistic that included the term population loss (meaning including non-births). Every other time in genocidic research, we have established DEATHS. China is the only example where they measure POPULATION LOSS. In fact, do a google on the papers themselves, none of them will ever rerference DEATHS.