Russian democracy is work in progress - Page 5

medvedev · 12-25-2007, 19:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Feanor

This is where I ask you for figures. I've asked you before, because as I have said, I have little information available to me. A lot of my information is dated, and finding reliable modern sources is hard.

This is a great debate to watch fella's
I don't know a lot about this area
I is interesting watching you two debate.
Keep it going!

Alex_Ivanov · 12-26-2007, 22:59 PM

Russian economy consists of two parts. Well-developped since USSR industries and industries that weren't developped in USSR at all. All goods needed in everyday life are unfortunatelly in the second group.

This part now develops due to joint enterprises, western technologies, western parts, etc. That was what Feanor talked about. These industries show 15-20% growth annually, but it's mistake to say they are significant part of all industrial production. In my mind, we need more such enterprises, much more. There's no other realistic way to develop something from the ground.

In case of closed economy these industries will die out, and we'll return to dark days of late USSR. Our debate would be impossible too, because USSR didn't produce personal computers, xDSL modems and such.

Feanor · 12-26-2007, 23:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alex_Ivanov

Russian economy consists of two parts. Well-developped since USSR industries and industries that weren't developped in USSR at all. All goods needed in everyday life are unfortunatelly in the second group.

This part now develops due to joint enterprises, western technologies, western parts, etc. That was what Feanor talked about. These industries show 15-20% growth annually, but it's mistake to say they are significant part of all industrial production. In my mind, we need more such enterprises, much more. There's no other realistic way to develop something from the ground.

In case of closed economy these industries will die out, and we'll return to dark days of late USSR. Our debate would be impossible too, because USSR didn't produce personal computers, xDSL modems and such.

I'm asking for statistics not generalizations. Sorry but I can just as easily produce countless generalizations. Infact I gave you one to which you responded:

Quote:

Not exactly so. Do your research.

So do you have facts and figures to back up that statement? Because I hope you understand that during the Soviet days the average profitability of the economy was 0. It was a closed system, where the excess profits of some industries were replaced by subsidizing others. All in all the money rotated, and products were distributed, though a significant amount of those products went into the military. Now you're telling me we have well developed industries and not so? What does that have to do in dealing with dutch disease, genuine diversification, and founding a solid economic basis, if those industries are not profitable, and the lucrative consumer product industries are simply final assembly step enterprises that are essentially a drain on foreign currency reserves which we get by selling oil and gas. The whole structure is still based on the same oil and gas with very little domestic diversification.

Alex_Ivanov · 12-27-2007, 03:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Feanor

I'm asking for statistics not generalizations.

Statistics on what share do imported parts, materials, etc have in total quantity of parts and materials used by Russian industry and for each branch separately? I don't think there's such statistic anywhere. If you wnat you may search it yourself. After all why do you expect me to dig out statistics and figures, while you have not posted a single figure from any creditable source?

Quote:

Now you're telling me we have well developed industries and not so?

Metallurgy - developped or not? Quite developped. Oil refinery - not first-class, but still quite developped. Chemical industry, etc. On the other side - electric/electronic industry, for example. Did USSR (and later Russia in 1990s) ever produced decent electric devices needed in every apartment - electric owens, kettles, TVs, VCRs (later - CD and DVD players), washing machines, irons, PCs? No, it didn't. We had giant power stations, generators, huge transformators, powerful electric motors, computers for military planes, and many other stuff, but we hadn't very common devices in our homes. What is the way to develop branch that was never developped before, in your opinion?

Quote:

The whole structure is still based on the same oil and gas with very little domestic diversification.

Of course, oil and gas are used as an engine of diversification and today we can't really continue it without this engine. But 'very little' - come on. I'd rather said that our diversification is mainly domestic so far, you won't find Russian-made goods abroad. And you won't find them abroad even 5 and maybe 10 years after - internal demand is very high. But nothing can be done overnight. What are 8 years of growth compared to 80 years of distorted communist economy and 10 years of chaos?

Feanor · 12-28-2007, 20:10 PM

Wonderful so please explain to me how you see the Russian economy developing, or rather what it should look like once it's developed. I'm getting a strong feeling that you don't have a clear understanding of the economic model of which you propose Russia to run by.

medvedev · 12-28-2007, 20:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alex_Ivanov

Statistics on what share do imported parts, materials, etc have in total quantity of parts and materials used by Russian industry and for each branch separately? I don't think there's such statistic anywhere. If you wnat you may search it yourself. After all why do you expect me to dig out statistics and figures, while you have not posted a single figure from any creditable source?

Metallurgy - developped or not? Quite developped. Oil refinery - not first-class, but still quite developped. Chemical industry, etc. On the other side - electric/electronic industry, for example. Did USSR (and later Russia in 1990s) ever produced decent electric devices needed in every apartment - electric owens, kettles, TVs, VCRs (later - CD and DVD players), washing machines, irons, PCs? No, it didn't. We had giant power stations, generators, huge transformators, powerful electric motors, computers for military planes, and many other stuff, but we hadn't very common devices in our homes. What is the way to develop branch that was never developped before, in your opinion?

That is easy my friend. Business can set up in IT communications in days. This follows with restuarants to feed the IT staff and then Hotels etc.
Service industry is today's industry for the big players in the world. Art and commerce and Russia has Art! Design and Media and you're there.
The agricultral side will always tick over under any new system.

Of course, oil and gas are used as an engine of diversification and today we can't really continue it without this engine. But 'very little' - come on. I'd rather said that our diversification is mainly domestic so far, you won't find Russian-made goods abroad. And you won't find them abroad even 5 and maybe 10 years after - internal demand is very high. But nothing can be done overnight. What are 8 years of growth compared to 80 years of distorted communist economy and 10 years of chaos?

The thing about Russia's production as you speak seems outdated and industrial to me. Service industry is what makes a country a worldwide business player with IT and Media and Art and fashion this century. Russia already tops the Art and fashion areas and locating business is easy as pie with today's technology (developed considerably in Russia). Business is global and Russia will probably be a big player in the coming years in the IT sector as many Russians I see in London are extremely well paid in IT and Media. The money is redistrubuted through the food and beverage industry and bar and social activities creating jobs in this sector and then the trades flousish as people do up their houses. It can be done in 2 years!
You wont find any British goods abroad these days either. Except music from our bands and merchandise with famous peoples names branded on them.
We operate a service economy and IT media based economy. But you need government control for health, education and crime. A robust dynamic government with energy and charisma to takle day to day issues and be diplomatic abroad and make Russia a tourist favourite to cover the tourism sector (which Britain considers in the top 3 tax earners for government.)
Also, I think Britain's government has a somewhat hidden tax that brings in millions each year and that is fines and parking tickets and speeding tickets and road charges! I might even wonder if that makes more tax for them then tourism in all honesty.
A good economy works in a snowball effect so long as there are government control of the sectors I mentioned above. It can be done in 2 years.

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12-26-2007, 22:59 PM	#62 (permalink)
Alex_Ivanov Patron Join Date: 07-17-06 Location: Kamchatka, Russia Posts: 165 Country:	Russian economy consists of two parts. Well-developped since USSR industries and industries that weren't developped in USSR at all. All goods needed in everyday life are unfortunatelly in the second group. This part now develops due to joint enterprises, western technologies, western parts, etc. That was what Feanor talked about. These industries show 15-20% growth annually, but it's mistake to say they are significant part of all industrial production. In my mind, we need more such enterprises, much more. There's no other realistic way to develop something from the ground. In case of closed economy these industries will die out, and we'll return to dark days of late USSR. Our debate would be impossible too, because USSR didn't produce personal computers, xDSL modems and such.

12-28-2007, 20:10 PM	#65 (permalink)
Feanor Banished Join Date: 06-12-07 Location: San Jose, CA Posts: 2,385 Country:	Wonderful so please explain to me how you see the Russian economy developing, or rather what it should look like once it's developed. I'm getting a strong feeling that you don't have a clear understanding of the economic model of which you propose Russia to run by.

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