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11-09-2006, 12:17 PM
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Postmaster General
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Syria's Peace Offensive
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First Published 2006-11-09, Last Updated 2006-11-09 09:03:59
Syria's Peace Offensive
President Bashar al-Assad wants to leave a legacy of peace-making, and his senior officials are speaking out for peace as well. Syria, having weathered two years of dangerous and intense threats from the United States, is now encouraging European and Arab powers to help bring the United States back into diplomatic discussions of the Israeli-Palestinian settlement and other Middle East problems, says Patrick Seale.
Peace is the buzz word in Damascus these days. It is the recurrent leitmotiv of the President’s statements and those of his senior officials. The message they want to convey to the West - and especially to President George W. Bush - is that unless the Middle East peace process is immediately revived, the region will succumb to extremism and war.
This summer’s war in Lebanon has lent urgency to President Bashar al-Assad’s repeated calls for a resumption of peace talks, culminating in his statement in a recent BBC interview that Syria was ready to live side-by-side with Israel. "No Syrian has ever said that before," Vice-President Farouk el-Shara’ reminded me in an interview this week.
At a dinner last Saturday night, President Assad told some 500 delegates at an international conference on Syria’s financial reforms that he was determined that peace-making would be his contribution to his country’s heritage.
His words are brave because they run counter to the current Arab mood. Arab leaders are under great pressure from their public to resist Israel by all possible means. Rather than wanting peace, Arab opinion - elated by Hizbullah’s success in Lebanon and outraged by the IDF’s indiscriminate slaughter in Gaza - is demanding armed resistance to the Jewish state, even a renewal of suicide bombings.
Such is the rage at Israel’s murderous rampage in Gaza - which in the last few days alone has killed at least 80 people and wounded another 200 - that Palestinian and other militants are now taking up the cry of Iran’s President Mahmud Ahmadinejad for Israel to be "wiped off the map."
Syria’s Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem is convinced that the region is at a critical turning point. Either a serious attempt is made to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict, he says, or extremism will prevail, with catastrophic consequences for everyone concerned, including the United States.
President Assad, he explains, believes that a narrow window of opportunity for peace has opened, which may last a brief four to six months. It is essential to enlarge the window. If it is closed, conflict in the region will inevitably spread. A radical initiative is therefore required.
"The Israelis need to learn that the world is changing," Mr Muallem says. "Force cannot achieve political goals. Israel’s occupation of Arab territory is the great obstacle to peace and security. If Israel wants to belong to this region - if it wants to live at peace with its neighbours - it needs to come to terms with the new realities. Peace can create a win-win situation for everyone. We in Syria want to play a constructive role."
There are great fears in Damascus, however, that the Israeli government is too weak and too divided to engage in peace talks. In the words of Vice-President Shara’, Israel’s Prime Minister Ehud Olmert does not look like a "decision-maker." He likens him to Ehud Barak, the Israeli prime minister who missed the chance of peace with Syria in 2000.
The Syrians see no sign that the current Israeli leadership shares the strategic vision of former Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin with whom Syria negotiated successfully until his murder by a Jewish fanatic in 1995.
An even greater fear is that the Bush administration has no real interest in Middle East peace. "We need the help of the Europeans and the Arabs to persuade the United States to put peace on its agenda," Foreign Minister Muallem says. "It will be to the great benefit of the region, and it will also help the United States in Iraq and Afghanistan."
The Syrians speak with greater confidence these days. As seen from Damascus, the country has survived intense American and international pressure for two dangerous years, 2003-2005. Syrian officials say they narrowly escaped an American armed attack immediately following the invasion of Iraq. Had the Iraqi insurgency not checked American belligerence, they believe they would have been the next target.
Attempts were then made to isolate Syria, to pressure it with sanctions, and even to bring down the regime by forcing the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon under Security Council Resolution 1559. All these attempts failed, and the Syrians now breathe more easily.
Serge Brammerz, the Belgian judge investigating the assassination of the former Lebanese Prime Minister, Rafiq Hariri, is due to issue his final report on 15 December. "If Brammerz does his work professionally, we have nothing to fear," says Foreign Minister Muallem. "We have cooperated fully with him. We have even gone beyond what he requested." Syria has conducted military experiments simulating the explosion which killed Hariri, and has given the conclusions to the Judge.
What is the Syrians’ calculation? They are greatly heartened that the Europeans are re-engaging with Damascus. The recent visit by Sir Nigel Sheinwald, senior foreign policy adviser of Britain’s Prime Minister Tony Blair was described by Foreign Minister Muallem as a "wise move." The Syrians hope that Blair, in his last months in office, will use his influence with Bush to advance the cause of peace. But they remain sceptical because Blair has left it so late.
Expectations are also placed on Spain’s Prime Minister Jose Luis Zapatero and especially on his Foreign Minister, Miguel Angel Moratinos, who is well-liked in Damascus, where he has been a frequent visitor. The Syrians also appreciated German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s recent remark that "We can’t deny that Syria is a main player in the region."
Such statements accord with Syria’s own sense of its regional role, and of the positive influence it can bring to bear on Iraq, Lebanon and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict - if its own interests are addressed. A top Syrian priority is the recovery of the Golan seized by Israel in 1967. Secondly, and perhaps more immediately, is the need to maintain Syrian influence in Lebanon and prevent a hostile power establishing itself there.
As Vice-President Shara’ explains, Syria has no intention of sending its army back into Lebanon. And it has no problem establishing diplomatic relations with Beirut. But it will never sacrifice the close historical ties between the Syrian and Lebanese peoples. Syrian influence in Lebanon is a reality which needs to be recognised, he says.
The Syrians have great hopes that James Baker and Lee Hamilton, co-chairman of America’s bipartisan Iraq Study Group will not only help President Bush extricate the United States from Iraq, but will also change American policy towards the whole region. The Democratic victory at this week’s mid-term elections has encouraged expectations that America will now correct its aim in the Middle East.
James Baker, former American Secretary of State, is greatly respected in Damascus. He promised the late President Hafez al-Assad that he would launch a peace process immediately after the war to liberate Kuwait, and he kept his promise. The result was the Madrid peace conference of 1991.
Foreign Minister Muallem explains that this precedent is very much in President Bashar al-Assad’s mind. The Syrians believe that Baker would not have taken the job if he had not received assurances from President Bush that serious attention would be given to his advice.
Syrian officials claim that the two years in which diplomatic engagement with Syria was virtually frozen allowed President Assad to focus on domestic problems, such as transforming Syria’s state-controlled economy into the beginnings of a thriving market economy. Private banks and insurance companies now operate in Syria for the first time in 40 years; growth last year was 4.5 per cent; investments are pouring in; and a stock market is due to open in 2007. But between 3m and 5m Syrians - out of a population of 18.8 million - still live in absolute poverty, while public sector services, such as health and education, are in poor shape, and unemployment is high. An added burden is the influx of some two million refugees from Iraq.
When the matter of human rights is raised with Syrian officials - particularly the jailing under harsh conditions of civil rights activists and political opponents - they point to far greater abuses by the United States and Israel. Western actions, they claim, have damaged the cause of democracy and human rights. Nevertheless, Syria’s record on human rights is improving, says Foreign Minister Muallem. It needs encouragement to improve still further, he adds.
Patrick Seale is a leading British writer on the Middle East, and the author of The Struggle for Syria; also, Assad of Syria: The Struggle for the Middle East; and Abu Nidal: A Gun for Hire.
http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=18214
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With the Iraq War in a tailspin or at best, a misguided missile, and with the US wanting to make an honourable exit, it is essential that the threat from the neighbouring countries of Iraq is eliminated. The ideal way is through mutual understanding and peace initiative.
If Syria is ready to accept the state of Israel, it is a step in the right direction since it would be one more nation weaned away from the Arab fantasy of wiping out the State of Israel! It would mean one more country that officially cannot become a safe haven for Hamas and other rabid militant elements as also a choke on their being given financial assistance.
If Syria wants peace and cooperation with the US, it should be encouraged since one flank of Iraq would be relatively safe, allowing greater attention towards the Iran side.
One should take up Syria's offer for what it is worth and walk the talk!
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