Leader

VOTERS GIVE W. A '7-UP'

By DEBORAH ORIN

June 25, 2004 --
WASHINGTON — President Bush has opened up a 7-point national lead over John Kerry, according to a new Fox News poll — while a Gallup Poll has a statistical tie with Bush up by 1 point.

It was Bush at 47 percent, Kerry 40 and independent Ralph Nader 3 in the Fox News nationwide poll of registered voters conducted Tuesday and Wednesday — marking a Bush gain from last month, when the race was dead-even.

Bush had 48 percent, Kerry 47 and Nader 3 in the Gallup-CNN-USA Today poll of likely voters conducted Monday through Wednesday — also a Bush gain since he trailed by 6 points in a Gallup poll earlier this month

Most polls since Ronald Reagan's funeral have shown a bump for Bush.

After a week of controversy over whether Saddam Hussein had ties to al Qaeda terrorists, Americans — by a 2-1 margin — agree with Bush that they had "a partnership," Fox News found.

In fact, 68 percent said it's likely Saddam knew in advance about 9/11.

Both new polls show widespread anxiety over Iraq. The Gallup poll found for the first time that most Americans think the Iraq war wasn't worth it — but Bush could be getting a boost from growing optimism over the economy.

Democrat Kerry claims middle-class voters feel "misery," but the Gallup poll found 49 percent think they're better off now than four years ago — about the same rating that Reagan got at this time in his successful 1984 re-election campaign.

New polls in battleground states also show a close race:

* In Pennsylvania, Bush led with 46 percent, Kerry had 41 and Nader 3 in a Fox News poll. But Kerry had a 1-point lead in a Quinnipiac University poll with Nader as the spoiler. Either way, it's a worry for Kerry since Al Gore won the state by 5 points in 2000.

* In Florida — the state that decided the 2000 race — Bush had a solid lead at 48 percent to Kerry's 38 with Nader at 3 in a Fox News poll. But an American Research Group poll had Kerry at 47 and Bush 46 — a tie.

* In Ohio, Bush had 45 percent to Kerry's 41 with Nader at 4 percent in a Fox News poll. But an American Research Group poll gave Kerry a 6-point lead. Bush won Ohio in 2000.

http://www.nypost.com/news/nationalnews/23796.htm

__________________

Confed999

I don't like polls, nobody ever called me for a poll.

__________________
No man is free until all men are free - John Hossack
I agree completely with this Administration’s goal of a regime change in Iraq-John Kerry
even if that enforcement is mostly at the hands of the United States, a right we retain even if the Security Council fails to act-John Kerry
He may even miscalculate and slide these weapons off to terrorist groups to invite them to be a surrogate to use them against the United States. It’s the miscalculation that poses the greatest threat-John Kerry

Leader

Polls can be very accurate if they are done correctly, which means several things:

1. Correct sample size
2. Correct stratification
3. No question bias
4. No interviewer bias
5. Correct method of interpretation

One must also remember that the number they get is not anymore likely to be the real number then any other number with in the margin of error. Thus if bush is at 47 with a margin of error of 3% the real percentage voting for Bush is Equally likely to be 44%, 50%, or any number in between. The correct statistical interpretation of the data in these polls that 95% of the polls conducted using the same method will contain the true percentage that are voting for Bush/Kerry/Nader. BTW, it's not surprising that you haven't been called for one of these. The sample size need to estimate the population is often very small.