My 2004 Map

**Gio** · 11-16-2003, 18:36 PM

I predict this in the next election. This is if the dems get a moderate canadiate, if they get Dean. i will make huge revisions. he'll surly pull a mondale.

**Ironduke** · 11-16-2003, 18:37 PM

Can you post the link to the interactive map?

**Ironduke** · 11-16-2003, 18:43 PM

Here's mine

I can't believe you gave Minnesota to Bush in '04. The Democratic candidate will definitely win it.

**Gio** · 11-16-2003, 18:44 PM

I'm basing my results on the newest Pew Center data that shows GOP gains in Minn.

And i think you're smoking on FL, Bush has made gains among seniors, jews and hispanics in FL.

**Ironduke** · 11-16-2003, 18:47 PM

I think the Democratic base in Florida will be much more energized after the debacle there in 2000 though.

With the prolonged decline of manufacturing and mining in the US, I think West Virginia might go Democrat as well.

Pennsylvania is also another heavily industrialized state that has seen alot of job loss, it might go to the Dems as well.

**Gio** · 11-16-2003, 18:49 PM

I beg to differ, with the new medicare expansion, support of Israel and hard line aganist cuba energizing the traditionally conservative Cuban-American base..
I don't give them a chance.

On West Virginia, they're very conservative pro-military people, and with the steel tariffs as back-up. I think Bush can win it.

Same can be said about penn and steel tariffs.

Also, with the resurance of the economy finnally occuring, with the economy adding 300,000 jobs in the 3rd quarter. The picture for Bush looks brighter.

**Ironduke** · 11-16-2003, 18:54 PM

Most of what would be considered the Democratic base didn't vote in the last election, I think the Ds will be making a major push to get out the vote in 2004.

As far as West Virginia is concerned, the steel tarriff is on it's way out, the Europeans are going to assign a number of punitive tarriffs against US goods if it doesn't.

Industrial jobs are going and they're not coming back. The most heavily industrial states have been hit the hardest.

Praxus · 11-16-2003, 18:55 PM

Quote:

As far as West Virginia is concerned, the steel tarriff is on it's way out, the Europeans are going to assign a number of punitive tarriffs against US goods if it doesn't.

Exports to Europe account for less then 60% of our total exports. This is around 370 billion dollars which is smaller then our defense Budget. Even though I am against the steel terrifs, Europe placing terrifs won't do much if anything to our economy.

**Gio** · 11-16-2003, 18:58 PM

American idustrial production is on the rise with it rising to 2000 levels, with it rising in every one of the fed's 12 districts.

It's only a matter of time before the jobs start to return. Not all of them, but at least some.

Praxus · 11-16-2003, 19:08 PM

Job Growth from end of 200...

Household Survey includes small buisnesses where the Establishment Survey is only big buisness and government.

This whole exporting jobs to china thing is ********. There is infinite work to be doen therefor there is infinite ammount of possible jobs.

**Ironduke** · 11-16-2003, 19:21 PM

Industrial production is up - OK, does this have to do more with more people being hired in industry or more robots?

300,000 jobs created last month, how many in manufacturing. None. We still lost jobs in manufacturing. The most heavily industrial states will be the big losers as far as jobs go.

**Gio** · 11-16-2003, 19:23 PM

Actually, the job index of the fed's survey is up to 2000 levels as well. The bleeding is slowing and the jobs will return.

**Ironduke** · 11-16-2003, 19:24 PM

So there are as many jobs in industry now as there were in 2000?

**Gio** · 11-16-2003, 19:25 PM

No, there's a hiring index, below 50 signals decline in manufacturing employment, above 50 signals expansion. It's surged to above 60 from the 40s.

Praxus · 11-16-2003, 19:28 PM

Quote:

Industrial production is up - OK, does this have to do more with more people being hired in industry or more robots?

300,000 jobs created last month, how many in manufacturing. None. We still lost jobs in manufacturing. The most heavily industrial states will be the big losers as far as jobs go.

Jobs are just moving from big buisness to small buisness. It is that simple.

11-16-2003, 18:37 PM	#2 (permalink)
Ironduke Burgomaster Join Date: 08-02-03 Location: Minneapolis Posts: 6,991 Country:	Can you post the link to the interactive map? __________________ The Buck Stops Here

11-16-2003, 19:08 PM	#10 (permalink)
Praxus *Senior Contributor* Join Date: 08-26-03 Posts: 3,237	Job Growth from end of 200... Household Survey includes small buisnesses where the Establishment Survey is only big buisness and government. This whole exporting jobs to china thing is *******. There is infinite work to be doen therefor there is infinite ammount of possible jobs. Last edited by Praxus : 11-16-2003 at 19:13 PM.*

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11-16-2003, 18:44 PM	#4 (permalink)
Gio Administrator Join Date: 08-02-03 Location: Westwood, Los Angeles, California Posts: 918 Country:	I'm basing my results on the newest Pew Center data that shows GOP gains in Minn. And i think you're smoking on FL, Bush has made gains among seniors, jews and hispanics in FL.

11-16-2003, 18:47 PM	#5 (permalink)
Ironduke Burgomaster Join Date: 08-02-03 Location: Minneapolis Posts: 6,991 Country:	I think the Democratic base in Florida will be much more energized after the debacle there in 2000 though. With the prolonged decline of manufacturing and mining in the US, I think West Virginia might go Democrat as well. Pennsylvania is also another heavily industrialized state that has seen alot of job loss, it might go to the Dems as well.

11-16-2003, 18:49 PM	#6 (permalink)
Gio Administrator Join Date: 08-02-03 Location: Westwood, Los Angeles, California Posts: 918 Country:	I beg to differ, with the new medicare expansion, support of Israel and hard line aganist cuba energizing the traditionally conservative Cuban-American base.. I don't give them a chance. On West Virginia, they're very conservative pro-military people, and with the steel tariffs as back-up. I think Bush can win it. Same can be said about penn and steel tariffs. Also, with the resurance of the economy finnally occuring, with the economy adding 300,000 jobs in the 3rd quarter. The picture for Bush looks brighter.

11-16-2003, 18:54 PM	#7 (permalink)
Ironduke Burgomaster Join Date: 08-02-03 Location: Minneapolis Posts: 6,991 Country:	Most of what would be considered the Democratic base didn't vote in the last election, I think the Ds will be making a major push to get out the vote in 2004. As far as West Virginia is concerned, the steel tarriff is on it's way out, the Europeans are going to assign a number of punitive tarriffs against US goods if it doesn't. Industrial jobs are going and they're not coming back. The most heavily industrial states have been hit the hardest.

11-16-2003, 18:58 PM	#9 (permalink)
Gio Administrator Join Date: 08-02-03 Location: Westwood, Los Angeles, California Posts: 918 Country:	American idustrial production is on the rise with it rising to 2000 levels, with it rising in every one of the fed's 12 districts. It's only a matter of time before the jobs start to return. Not all of them, but at least some.

11-16-2003, 19:21 PM	#11 (permalink)
Ironduke Burgomaster Join Date: 08-02-03 Location: Minneapolis Posts: 6,991 Country:	Industrial production is up - OK, does this have to do more with more people being hired in industry or more robots? 300,000 jobs created last month, how many in manufacturing. None. We still lost jobs in manufacturing. The most heavily industrial states will be the big losers as far as jobs go.

11-16-2003, 19:23 PM	#12 (permalink)
Gio Administrator Join Date: 08-02-03 Location: Westwood, Los Angeles, California Posts: 918 Country:	Actually, the job index of the fed's survey is up to 2000 levels as well. The bleeding is slowing and the jobs will return.

11-16-2003, 19:24 PM	#13 (permalink)
Ironduke Burgomaster Join Date: 08-02-03 Location: Minneapolis Posts: 6,991 Country:	So there are as many jobs in industry now as there were in 2000?

11-16-2003, 19:25 PM	#14 (permalink)
Gio Administrator Join Date: 08-02-03 Location: Westwood, Los Angeles, California Posts: 918 Country:	No, there's a hiring index, below 50 signals decline in manufacturing employment, above 50 signals expansion. It's surged to above 60 from the 40s.

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