Sir,Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers
Undermine sino/pak relationship .... India has never tried anything other than undermining itself in this context. Truth is India has time & again stonewalled on making peace with pak. And making peace means going the extra mile. Sure the pakistanis equally match India in this regard. A little more imagination is needed to see the greater benefit of getting pak off its back. That means going that extra mile. The Indian policy making machinery is ossified in its thinking. A thinking rooted in interests defined by territory & ideology that bestow no proportionate benefits on India for the prize they extract.
But then I believe that the policy makers are representative of the Indian people when it comes to this aspect. Ergo India deserves whatever it reaps in continuing its existing posture.
You two are better than this and it is so freaking obvious ... but politically extremely difficult.
Again, the question is what has India done to undermine the Sino-Pak relationship. Both of you suggested that a peace deal with Pakistan is near impossible.
Well, then, what about a peace deal with China?
Chimo
Sir,
I have never understood the chinese well but my questions are why would the Chinese want to make peace with India? What are the proportional benefits for China?
What does India has to offer? the Dalai Lama - he is no ayatollah. Strip of himalayas? That can wait. Eliminating an other threat front seems a good reason but it is too nebulous & the chinese never bought the nehru's "india china brother" concept. What does Pak influence? Xinjiang, Afghanistan & probably CAR not to mention the market for chinese weapons and a true client state.
Chinese interests seem very much aligned with status quo. Indian intransigence applies to china too but in any case It takes two to tango.
The same reason why India should make peace with China. A billion's people market.
Chimo
Then you understand squat about the Indian policy vis-a-vis Pakistan and China. Pakistan will not come to a final settlement with India untill and unless their establishment is freed of the Pa's iron grip, and this is not happening.
Now start asking these question to yourself -
What geo-strategic grand benefits do you think a hilly track of land called Kashmir can bring to it? Do you think the PA Generals are idiots to not understand its insignificance vs the significance of diverting precious money and resources from arming PA to the teeth to where it is needed most, the Pakistani people?
Do you think those Generals, who had no qualms in butchering their fello "muslim bretheren" in Balochistan or Astan are dying just to free the Kashmiri muslims from the nefarious control of the infidel Indians?
Then why are they doing it?
Why are they running against a democratic neighbour, which as per the good Colonel, is more interested than even Pakistan, in keeping the Pakistanis in Pakistan itself?
And on the sixth day, God created the Field Artillery...
Col.
Not impossible, just very difficult in the current atmosphere. In a few years, after the poisonous air clears a bit, the chances would definitewly improve.
I certainly do not doubt the validity of your arguement. Forget about any political settlement, just removing the current trade barriers would benefit both sides enormously. Maybe that is a possible first step
That is possibly easier to do, and I do know that Chinese and Indian companies have collaborated for some energy acquisition deals (very small ones actually). I think there is some confusion in my mind about the long term feasibility, given that at some point the interests of these two countries, but then that is also true of other power blocks such as the US and the EU.
Maye if India can proactively reach out to China like in 1987...
"Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able? Then he is not omnipotent. Is he able, but not willing? Then he is malevolent. Is he both able and willing? Then whence cometh evil? Is he neither able nor willing? Then why call him God?" ~ Epicurus
Again, you're not seeing what I'm seeing. You're seeing if India acts correctly, there is a prosperous future between China and India.
Look at it from my view, if India acts correctly, there will be war between Pakistan and China.
See the difference?
Chimo
Sir,
Musharaf cracked down on the red mosque for the chinese. When China no longer needs pak to contain India, Pak's position becomes even more dependent on China. The generals in rawalpindi know that perfectly. They would roughly have the same choice that they had when they had to choose sides between US & talibs. Sir they chose the Americans and I would bet my money that they would the choose the Chinese the next time around. In such a scenario I believe a pak/sino war is exactly as likely as the talibs taking over nukes.
Vietnam was a lot closer to China than Pakistan currently is. In fact, Vietnam needed rice shipments to survie. The result, the 1979 and the 1984 Sino-Vietnam Wars.
Once China no longer need Pakistan, she would toss Pakistan to the wolves and the wolves in this case is India.
Chimo
that maybe the case, but there is one area India can't never replacement Pakistan in the eye of the Chinese government -- a gateway to the middle east oil.Once China no longer need Pakistan
The Chinese government seems to (at least to me) has two primary goals, Taiwan and Economic Growth (and the oil to fuel it); to that end, she is more than happy to improvement relations with even Japan, a nation that has a much worst historical relations with China for trade. Hack, the PRC is glad to trade to trade with India, and she does, on top of all those geo political juxtapositions.
If fact, I do not recall the Chinese government "actually" changes its economic relations with any nation that have political conflicts with. The French over the Dali lama visit, the Canadian over the Olympic, the US over the arms sales to Taiwan.
Last edited by xinhui; 16 Dec 09, at 09:17.
“the misery of being exploited by capitalists is nothing compared to the misery of not being exploited at all” -- Joan Robinson
But what is the potential? Pipelines have to cross the himalayas not to mention Chinese markets are more to the east. With the constant landslides & turbulence in the area is a pipeline even feasible? China still doesn't figure in the iran-pak pipeline thing. Or is it that China is interested in a sea route given the Chinese investment in Gwader.
Last edited by pChan; 16 Dec 09, at 09:39.
Sir, India is a really long way away from placing economic sanctions against pak. Something like what US is trying to do Iran. Indian BMD is a long way away & there is a good chance that technology would move beyond missiles. No India cannot play the wolf. Not for a very long time.
The following is from indiatimes so the standard "colorful" commentary is expected, but it does show that China has an interest in the project.
In addition, China has a 70 Billion oil/gas deal in the work (Link) and holds a seat at the UNSC. China can use its influence over Iran over the pipeline but so far she has not. Everyone knows that the pipeline will have a greater impact on the over all "iran-pak pipeline" then 70 bandits from Northern India.
India to tell Iran of interest in pipeline
14 Nov 2009, 0257 hrs IST, ET Bureau
pChan,
NEW DELHI: India will express its continued interest in the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project when Iranian foreign minister Manouchehr
Mottaki visits India next week. This stand, however, has more to do with New Delhi’s desire to checkmate China.
New Delhi’s renewed expression of interest in the pipeline project comes in the backdrop of Iran’s very public statement that China is interested in joining the project. In fact Tehran has been using the China angle to push New Delhi back to the negotiating mode. Of course Pakistan immediately embraced the idea saying it could become the Iran-Pakistan-China pipeline.
``We are interested and it is very much on the agenda,’’ sources said when asked about the pipeline project. The issue is expected to be taken up during bilateral discussions between external affairs minister S.M. Krishna and Mr Mottaki. Sources further said that the two sides will go into greater detail during the meeting of the joint working group on energy that is expected to be held soon. In fact Mr Mottaki’s delegation also has senior representatives from the petroleum sector.
The negotiations on the pipeline have been stuck over the issue of pricing and security. India and Iran have differences of opinion on the point of delivery of the gas and on pricing. ``There are issues that need to be resolved,’’ sources said and added that this was a project would require patience. The issue of security in particular has come into greater focus thanks to the increased instability in Pakistan and now due to Iran’s own problem with Pakistan on the terror front. The pipeline is expected to go through Pakistan’s troubled areas which India, especially after the Mumbai terror attacks, is not keen on.
Though these sticking points are unlikely to be resolved anytime soon, India wants to send the message across that it is still part of the IPI project and is not quitting the project.
The issue of security has also come into sharp focus for Iran which is also facing the problem of terror on its own border with Pakistan. The October incident where commanders of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps were killed in terror attacks in the province of Sistan-Balochistan near Iran’s border with Pakistan.
India to tell Iran of interest in pipeline- Politics/Nation-News-The Economic Times
“the misery of being exploited by capitalists is nothing compared to the misery of not being exploited at all” -- Joan Robinson
Yup, that is the plan, offload oil at Gwader and mine the coal up north.
from Nov 3rd 2009
Pakistan Names Projects for Chinese Investment
Islamabad Sees Deals With China - WSJ.com
BEIJING -- China and Pakistan are discussing a variety of deals, including a possible investment by China Petrochemical Corp. in a major Pakistani coal reserve, a senior Pakistani government official said Tuesday.
The talks underscore how Pakistan is becoming another important investment destination for China in its hunger for oil and gas.
Sohail Ahmad, director of Pakistan's Board of Investment, said the two sides are also discussing an option to construct a rail and road link to help transport oil from the Middle East to western China.
Mr. Ahmad said the two potential deals are part of broader bilateral trade and economic cooperation proposals under discussion between the two countries. Other areas for potential cooperation include the textile, heavy industry and water sectors, he said.
China Petrochemical Corp., also known as Sinopec Group, has launched the first phase of a feasibility study into the estimated 185 billion metric ton Thar coal reserve, located in southern Pakistan.
It is studying gasification of the coal reserves among other possibilities such as power generation and mining, Mr. Ahmad said. Gasification is a process to convert coal into gas and then into liquefied natural gas, or LNG, for producing chemical products.
Pakistan has vast coal reserves, mostly in the Thar Desert, but has barely exploited them due to a lack of investment.
Last year, the Pakistan government said the reserves were the fifth-largest coal reserves in the world. Pakistan produces less than 0.5% of its total power generation capacity from coal, it said.
China, meanwhile, is seeking raw resources to fuel its rapid development and to funnel resources into its less wealthy western region.
Mr. Ahmad also said the two governments are in talks to build a road and rail link from Pakistan's Gwadar Port, at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, to Xinjiang in western China. The port was jointly constructed by the two countries.
If the link is built, it might among other things help extend to Xinjiang the oil pipeline from Iran to Pakistan or the LNG route from Qatar to Pakistan, he said.
Discussions between senior government leaders of Pakistan and China on the link, which could cost billions of dollars, remain "at the very initial stage," he said.
Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari, who visited China in August to talk about these and other projects, will visit Beijing again in December for further talks, Mr. Ahmad said.
Asked if Pakistan is worried about Chinese state-owned enterprises taking control of some of its important companies, he said, "We don't have any concern, and we don't feel China is a threat."
The two countries' leaders have decided to set up a China-specific economic zone in Pakistan, he said, featuring a tax exemption as well as some legal protections.
—Victoria Ruan and Wan Xu
Last edited by xinhui; 16 Dec 09, at 09:58.
“the misery of being exploited by capitalists is nothing compared to the misery of not being exploited at all” -- Joan Robinson
Chinese mulling $13b investment in Gwadar
By Sajid Chaudhry
ISLAMABAD: The Chinese petroleum industry has indicated an interest in shifting its excess capacity to Gwadar, bringing in estimated investment of $13 billion, a senior government official told Daily Times on Wednesday.
The China Chamber of Petroleum Industry (CCPI) and All China Federation of Industry and Commerce (ACFIC) conveyed to Pakistani authorities during a recent visit that the Chinese petroleum industry is keen to invest in Pakistan’s energy sector, the official said.
The ACFIC and CCPI indicated that both the public and private sectors should cooperate in energy projects in Pakistan, with the Chinese private sector in particular seeing a lot of opportunities here, the official said.
This cooperation will not be restricted to building an oil pipeline to set up an energy corridor to Gwadar, but also in shifting energy related industry to Pakistan.
However, the government will need to provide strong support to lay down a framework for a safe financial, investment and security environment in Balochistan to attract this investment, the official said.
He said the Chinese petroleum industry sees four potentially fruitful projects. Firstly, an oil pipeline linking Gwadar to Xinjiang in China to set up an energy corridor. The economic viability of such a project is yet to be worked out. Secondly, the development of Gwadar Port Energy Zone, where the Chinese could set up an oil refinery with a capacity of 21 million tonnes.
China has been preparing a similar project along the Yangtze River in collaboration with Saudi Arabia for the last two years, but has now indicated it could shift the project to Pakistan, the official said. Other countries besides China will also be invited to invest in the project.
Thirdly, the Gwadar energy zone could accommodate other energy sector industries. The Chinese business groups said that China has excess capacity in the petroleum services industry and planned to move the excess capacity to Dubai, but was now considering shifting it to Gwadar, the official added. According to their initial estimates, the Gwadar Port Energy Zone could attract investment of up to $13 billion.
Fourthly, the Chinese petroleum industry also indicated an interest in oil and gas exploration projects in Pakistan, the official said. The Chinese business groups had proposed that a Pak-China energy and trade cooperation promotion association be established for such projects.
The association would include members from the oil and gas sector and other industries in the power sector. They had also suggested that a Pak-China joint investment company be set up to finance these projects, the official said.
Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan
“the misery of being exploited by capitalists is nothing compared to the misery of not being exploited at all” -- Joan Robinson
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