+ Reply to Thread
Results 1 to 3 of 3

Thread: U.S. Troops to Iraqis: Leave Your Lights on at Night

  1. #1
    Staff Emeritus
    Military Professional
    Shek's Avatar
    Join Date
    23 Feb 05
    Location
    Krblachistan
    Posts
    11,427
    Country: United States

    U.S. Troops to Iraqis: Leave Your Lights on at Night

    U.S. Troops to Iraqis: Leave Your Lights on at Night - Freakonomics - Opinion - New York Times Blog

    U.S. Troops to Iraqis: Leave Your Lights on at Night
    By Steven D. Levitt

    A fascinating U.C.L.A. study challenges the success of the U.S. troop surge using a creative metric: satellite images capturing the amount of light at night in Iraqi neighborhoods. The idea is simple: lights at night are an indication of activity. According to the article, no lights imply that people have fled or have been ethnically cleansed. (It also might mean that there is no electricity, or that strict curfews are being enforced, but the authors say that is not a full explanation.)

    From the press release:

    The night-light signature in four other large Iraqi cities — Kirkuk, Mosul, Tikrit, and Karbala — held steady or increased between the spring of 2006 and the winter of 2007, the U.C.L.A. team found. None of these cities were targets of the surge.

    Baghdad’s decreases were centered in the southwestern Sunni strongholds of East and West Rashid, where the light signature dropped 57 percent and 80 percent, respectively, during the same period.

    By contrast, the night-light signature in the notoriously impoverished, Shiite-dominated Sadr City remained constant, as it did in the American-dominated Green Zone. Light actually increased in Shiite-dominated New Baghdad, the researchers found.

    Until just before the surge, the night-light signature of Baghdad had been steadily increasing overall.
    Here’s the question: Will it be enough for the U.S. troops to command the Iraqis to leave their lights on so that things look good for the surge, or will we need to assign troops to shine lights skyward themselves?
    "So little pains do the vulgar take in the investigation of truth, accepting readily the first story that comes to hand." Thucydides 1.20.3

  2. #2
    Staff Emeritus
    Military Professional
    Shek's Avatar
    Join Date
    23 Feb 05
    Location
    Krblachistan
    Posts
    11,427
    Country: United States
    Here's the full article: http://www.envplan.com/epa/editorials/a41200.pdf



    While I'm fascinated by the approach, having read it, it's a pretty weak model and fraught with errors in the most basic conversation of statistics: correlation vs. causality. The fact that they try to use a single snapshot to try on capture the effects of the "surge" is absurd. I don't disagree that soft ethnic cleansing contributed to some of the reduction in violence, the fact that these authors pat themselves on the back while claiming that soft ethnic cleansing is the answer is laughable.
    Last edited by Shek; 07 Oct 08, at 05:05.
    "So little pains do the vulgar take in the investigation of truth, accepting readily the first story that comes to hand." Thucydides 1.20.3

  3. #3
    Banned
    Join Date
    11 Oct 08
    Posts
    5
    Country: India
    Quote Originally Posted by Shek View Post
    Here's the full article: http://www.envplan.com/epa/editorials/a41200.pdf



    While I'm fascinated by the approach, having read it, it's a pretty weak model and fraught with errors in the most basic conversation of statistics: correlation vs. causality. The fact that they try to use a single snapshot to try on capture the effects of the "surge" is absurd. I don't disagree that soft ethnic cleansing contributed to some of the reduction in violence, the fact that these authors pat themselves on the back while claiming that soft ethnic cleansing is the answer is laughable.
    i too agree with ur comments sir

+ Reply to Thread

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

     

Similar Threads

  1. Analysis: Chechnya
    By Ironduke in forum Europe and Russia
    Replies: 4
    Last Post: 29 Jul 08,, 01:30
  2. Canadian soldiers taking the brunt in Afghansitan when compared to other NATO nations
    By Canmoore in forum Operation Enduring Freedom and Af-Pak
    Replies: 52
    Last Post: 04 Feb 07,, 00:10
  3. Do G4 have a case.
    By crooks in forum International Politics
    Replies: 165
    Last Post: 31 Dec 06,, 11:58
  4. Articles and links for the Military Professional
    By Officer of Engineers in forum The Staff College
    Replies: 115
    Last Post: 20 Nov 06,, 16:28
  5. Invasion of East Timor (1975)
    By troung in forum Warfare in the Modern Age
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 03 Jun 05,, 21:43

Share this thread with friends:

Share this thread with friends:

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts