Thread: Power Projection

Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers

Taipei, as any capital city, is a military target.

Colonel, were gonna have to clal you the proffesor now as well.

Yeung, outside of major armaments and armament production centers what would you classify as a valid military target? National military command centers, telephone/internet exchanges and server farms, broadcast facilties, highways, rail links etc The list is huge and any capitol will have almost all of them.

1400 missiles cannot destroy Taipai but it can make life difficult until the missiles run out. More importantly the missiles can create the illusion of PRC victory as long as the missiles are getting through. Missiles themsevles won't subdue the RoC, you need boots on the ground for that. But they can strike at morale, C4 assets and give the impression of striking at the rebels. This impression of an early lead might well be what saves the CCP if the US intervenes, although missile attacks on Taipai might also cause a hesitant US to decide to act.

And that is a Eureka moment!

Z, THANK YOU!

The PLA doesn't have to invade. They can just rain bombs. Keep Taiwan under a constant state of terror. The Chinese are currently producing 40 missiles are year. I have to check but I believe that they can easily goto 120 missiles per year.

I've got to think this strategy through but this makes sense. The ONLY force opposing Taiwan that is increasing are the rocket batteries, not amphibous invasion forces. The war can go on ... well forever.

I've got to think this through but Z, you're brilliant.

Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers

And that is a Eureka moment!

Z, THANK YOU!

The PLA doesn't have to invade. They can just rain bombs. Keep Taiwan under a constant state of terror. The Chinese are currently producing 40 missiles are year. I have to check but I believe that they can easily goto 120 missiles per year.

I've got to think this strategy through but this makes sense. The ONLY force opposing Taiwan that is increasing are the rocket batteries, not amphibous invasion forces. The war can go on ... well forever.

I've got to think this through but Z, you're brilliant.

Sir, I don't think the missiles can beat the RoC, but the images of gutted buildings and flaming backdrops on CNN can cover the loss of Chinese fighters if and when the US jumps in. While purely theatrical in tems of real physical effect the perceived destruction of Taipai can serve as a propaganda tool to keep the CCP in power. They give the CCP a tool- however limited to inflict real harm- however limited on Taiwan no matter what the Taiwanese do before America intervenes. The down side of course is a hesitant America who might decide to say it is an internal Chinese affair might decide to jump in if a major population center is subjected to carpet bombing by ballsitic missile and that is how Taipai will spin it to thier citizens and the world.

One other big use for the missiles is SEAD work. If the PRC has 1400 missiles and RoC has 2000 ABM missiles then only 400 or so of the PRC's missiles will make it in and thats not enough to cripple a country. However those 1000 shot down ballsitics will eat up the best of the RoC SAMs giving the PLAAF a more level playing feild vs the RoCAF. Also once the RoC's ABM defenses are gone, the nuclear threat becomes a real threat. Not that the PRC would nuke Taiwan, but as a way of shielding the mainland from US strategic strikes- "Hit us to hard and we'll make sure no one wins." Again this shields the bulk of China from direct losses in the war and keeps the image of a victorious or woulda been victorius Peoples Liberation Army alive and thus keeps the CCP in power.


However no matter what the PRC does, if the US jumps in the PLAAF/PLAN is going to bleed badly. Thus in my opinion the object for the PRC/CCP if Taiwan declares indipendance is not to win, but to apear to be winning and then pull the best assets out of the way is the US enters the fray and fight a couple of fights with sacrafcial units before agreeing to UN calls for a ceasefire. The CCP can then go to the Chinese people with a plausable story and martyrs and deflect aim onto the USA.

Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers

And that is a Eureka moment!

Z, THANK YOU!

The PLA doesn't have to invade. They can just rain bombs. Keep Taiwan under a constant state of terror. The Chinese are currently producing 40 missiles are year. I have to check but I believe that they can easily goto 120 missiles per year.

I've got to think this strategy through but this makes sense. The ONLY force opposing Taiwan that is increasing are the rocket batteries, not amphibous invasion forces. The war can go on ... well forever.

I've got to think this through but Z, you're brilliant.

Don't forget the cruise missiles and glide bombs (the latter would be very useful for annoying the people on Kinmen, Matsu and the Pescadores, if bombing Taipei with them is not an option, saving the ballistic missiles for cross straits fire).

One could also just jury rig those surplus J-6 and J-7 target drones to go fly into ROC airspace. The ROCAF would be forced to expend munitions downing those things, since they can't afford to let those improvised UAVs do recon work or crash dive into military targets (the latter is a rather remote possibility, I'll admit).

Originally Posted by zraver

Sir, I don't think the missiles can beat the RoC, but the images of gutted buildings and flaming backdrops on CNN can cover the loss of Chinese fighters if and when the US jumps in. While purely theatrical in tems of real physical effect the perceived destruction of Taipai can serve as a propaganda tool to keep the CCP in power. They give the CCP a tool- however limited to inflict real harm- however limited on Taiwan no matter what the Taiwanese do before America intervenes. The down side of course is a hesitant America who might decide to say it is an internal Chinese affair might decide to jump in if a major population center is subjected to carpet bombing by ballsitic missile and that is how Taipai will spin it to thier citizens and the world.

One other big use for the missiles is SEAD work. If the PRC has 1400 missiles and RoC has 2000 ABM missiles then only 400 or so of the PRC's missiles will make it in and thats not enough to cripple a country. However those 1000 shot down ballsitics will eat up the best of the RoC SAMs giving the PLAAF a more level playing feild vs the RoCAF. Also once the RoC's ABM defenses are gone, the nuclear threat becomes a real threat. Not that the PRC would nuke Taiwan, but as a way of shielding the mainland from US strategic strikes- "Hit us to hard and we'll make sure no one wins." Again this shields the bulk of China from direct losses in the war and keeps the image of a victorious or woulda been victorius Peoples Liberation Army alive and thus keeps the CCP in power.


However no matter what the PRC does, if the US jumps in the PLAAF/PLAN is going to bleed badly. Thus in my opinion the object for the PRC/CCP if Taiwan declares indipendance is not to win, but to apear to be winning and then pull the best assets out of the way is the US enters the fray and fight a couple of fights with sacrafcial units before agreeing to UN calls for a ceasefire. The CCP can then go to the Chinese people with a plausable story and martyrs and deflect aim onto the USA.

Well, the PRC could deflect some of the political heat by making the ROC fire first. It could be through Beijing arranging for boatloads or flights of protestors from the mainland to start intruding into ROC waters and airspace with frequency in the hopes that someone in the ROC will be stupid enough to fire first, a bit like what the Russians did in Georgia this August.

Didn't Germany do that to London with V-1 and V-2? That campaign didn't work nearly as well as initially thought. Why will the Chinese missile campaign work where Germany failed?

col yu,

The PLA doesn't have to invade. They can just rain bombs. Keep Taiwan under a constant state of terror. The Chinese are currently producing 40 missiles are year. I have to check but I believe that they can easily goto 120 missiles per year.

I've got to think this strategy through but this makes sense. The ONLY force opposing Taiwan that is increasing are the rocket batteries, not amphibous invasion forces. The war can go on ... well forever.

I've got to think this through but Z, you're brilliant.

that strategy can't last that long- who's going to trade when the taiwan strait is under an indeterminate period of hostilities? lack of trade might hurt taiwan, but it'll absolutely kill the PRC, especially as taiwan will still have access on the pacific side.

also, massive taiwanese investment outflow from the PRC- if the war goes on for two-three weeks maybe the taiwanese will float it out, but any longer, especially as civilians are killed, and those businessmen are going to be forced to pull out if for nothing else than massive unpopularity at home, bad for the brand name.

and at 120 missiles per year, taiwan could roughly counter that by increasing PAC-3 reloads. if PRC tries using those as a terror weapon, i don't see why the taiwanese couldn't produce an indigeneous response, especially if the US refuses to participate, then they would have nothing to lose. PRC bombs taipei, ROC could bomb fuzhou or xiamen or guangdong.
as a strategic weapon, missiles aren't enough.

I'm not thinking a military victory but a political one. A punitive expedition without needing one single soldier. A 200 missile strike against a specific target and continually to do so for at least a year.

I'm still thinking this through but the idea of punitive expeditions using missiles instead of soldiers have an appeal both historically and force posture wise.

I think it would be worthwhile to note that Taiwan has the capability to assemble a functioning nuclear weapon and the means to deliver it.

I think an implied Taiwanese threat to retaliate with nuclear weapons would give the PRC pause.

col yu,

I'm not thinking a military victory but a political one. A punitive expedition without needing one single soldier. A 200 missile strike against a specific target and continually to do so for at least a year.

I'm still thinking this through but the idea of punitive expeditions using missiles instead of soldiers have an appeal both historically and force posture wise.

punitive expeditions are good for securing an advantageous status quo, they're not so good for securing unification. once the taiwanese declare independence, i find it highly unlikely the PRC will be willing to accept status quo ante bellum- they'll want unification that only comes with boots on the ground.

Originally Posted by Ironduke

I think it would be worthwhile to note that Taiwan has the capability to assemble a functioning nuclear weapon and the means to deliver it.

I think an implied Taiwanese threat to retaliate with nuclear weapons would give the PRC pause.

Taiwan going anywhere near nuclear capability would bring instant Chinese retaliation on their heads. It's one of the five nos, I believe.

Originally Posted by Skywatcher

Taiwan going anywhere near nuclear capability would bring instant Chinese retaliation on their heads. It's one of the five nos, I believe.

I think they could do it on the fly in the event of a PRC attack.

I think the estimate for Japan is that they could assemble a nuclear weapon in a weekend if they wanted to, Sweden as well.

Taiwan has, IIRC, four nuclear reactors, and a large host of highly qualified and able scientists.

edit: I should add, they wouldn't be able to produce a plutonium based weapon, but an enriched uranium one.

Originally Posted by Ironduke

I think they could do it on the fly in the event of a PRC attack.

I think the estimate for Japan is that they could assemble a nuclear weapon in a weekend if they wanted to, Sweden as well.

Taiwan has, IIRC, four nuclear reactors, and a large host of highly qualified and able scientists.

edit: I should add, they wouldn't be able to produce a plutonium based weapon, but an enriched uranium one.

How are they going to deliver it? One needs to have a command and control system for the nukes as well. And you'd better test it, or be sure to have a verified design of sorts.

China knows where all the ROC reactors are and those reactors would have safeguards in the first place. And nuking China would get the PRC to burn Taiwan to a crisp.

Originally Posted by astralis

punitive expeditions are good for securing an advantageous status quo, they're not so good for securing unification.

What is the definition of unification? More than that, what countries would try to establish embassies in a capital under bombardment?

Originally Posted by astralis

once the taiwanese declare independence, i find it highly unlikely the PRC will be willing to accept status quo ante bellum- they'll want unification that only comes with boots on the ground.

The PLA has always think the Battle of Annhilation. We have gone through various scenarios in which they could achieved that battle but the easiest annihilation is the one to which they already know how to do - artillery.