Federalization of Iraq and Outcomes

**cyppok** · 01 Sep 08,, 06:57

Reminder:

Sen. Joe Biden Touts His Plan for Iraq - washingtonpost.com
The likelihood of this happening have increased. Notice how even the pullout time table was pre-empted by the current administration to get rid of an election issue.

The most likely outcome is Kurdistan emerging with a complete destabilization of the region. Turkey, Iran, Syria, will be further entangled in pushing their agendas through the Iraqi theater. Kurds are the most apparent wild card.

Reform Party of Syria
troubling

Recent taking control of Kirkuk was probably the final push before formal federalization.

**~~Bankotsu~~** · 01 Sep 08,, 08:27

I think Syria should merge with Iraq to form United Arab Republic.

That would create a stronger state to balance the power of Turkey, Iran and Israel.

**cyppok** · 01 Sep 08,, 20:13

Originally Posted by Bankotsu

I think Syria should merge with Iraq to form United Arab Republic.

That would create a stronger state to balance the power of Turkey, Iran and Israel.

Doubt the U.S. nor Shiite/Kurd populous would allow it nor the Alawite rulers of Syria. It would not serve the purpose of creating more states with smaller populations and lower ability to cause trouble. The tendency is to splinter not fuse countries. Also look at it from a pragmatic point of view 2 centers of power gravity Damask/Baghdad wouldn't work.

**~~Bankotsu~~** · 02 Sep 08,, 03:54

It would not serve the purpose of creating more states with smaller populations and lower ability to cause trouble.

Weak small states would create more problems.

For example, Iraq. It is smaller and weaker than USA, so USA, seeing the weakness, attacked it.

If Iraq was big and strong like Russia, would USA dare to attack?

USA didn't risk war with Russia over Georgia.

Russia didn't risk war with USA over Serbia/Kosovo.

Their military strength counter each other.

Syria/Iraqi union would counter the aggression of Turkey, Iran and Israel.

**~~Bankotsu~~** · 02 Sep 08,, 04:01

Look at the weakness of UAE compared to Iran and Iran's attitude towards UAE:

UAE protests against Iran over Abu Musa
http://arabia.ndtv.com/Story.aspx?pa...WEN20080063410

If UAE is strong, you think Iran would dare to behave in such a fashion?

Syria/Iraqi Union would counter the ambitions of Iran.

Any weakness of Syria and Iraq would increase the ambitions and aggressiveness of Iran.

Balance of power bring peace.

No balance of power brings war.

Simple logic.

So, I do not agree with your thesis that weak smaller dismembered states brings peace.

Weak, smaller dismembered states brings war.

**Mercenary** · 02 Sep 08,, 06:10

If that happens..then we;ll pbly have Kurdistan(Iraqi part), the shiite Iraq joining with Iran and the Sunni Iraq pbly with Syria..

the new kurdistan would definitely cause the Iranian Kurd and Turkish Kurds to try to declare independent territories and join kurdistan.. outcome: war with Iran/Turkey..where US would step-in again

So..even if the bigger entities are formed..there is still a strong possibility of a low-scale conflict

**~~Bankotsu~~** · 02 Sep 08,, 06:13

That is why I think a strong Syria/Iraq union can bring stability to that region.

USA and Israel are going to oppose such a plan I think.

**cyppok** · 03 Sep 08,, 03:05

The point is to make all the states in mid-east small and manageable by the powers of this world.
1) they should fight each other than they wont go jihadi on the west etc because too busy fighting each other and surviving.
2) the balance of power is a concept between great powers, without nuclear weapons.
3) I personally think that Kurdistan would make mid-east more civil to the outside world by forcing it to look inward instead of whining about cartoons in other countries newspapers.
4) The Iraq wont be partitioned this part there that part here. It will probably most likely remain as is until Kurds are strong enough to survive on their own and the break-up of Iran can shore up Shiite-south with another province. Even then the likelihood of the Kurds being on their own is slim. It is simply better for them to be part of Iraq and use it bigger mass as an aura of national protection to call upon.
5) Kurdistan would probably go its own way only after Turkey was in shambles and it could get the Kurdish part in Turkey (this wouldn't happen unless Turkey collapsed economically AND it had an economic crisis to boot AND Russia/USA decided they needed a new partner in the region with a larger mass)

**~~Bankotsu~~** · 03 Sep 08,, 04:21

Originally Posted by cyppok

The point is to make all the states in mid-east small and manageable by the powers of this world.

What about the big states like USA, Russia, China and Canada?

I think they should be dismembered too so they won't become too powerful.

**snc128** · 03 Sep 08,, 05:38

Originally Posted by cyppok

The point is to make all the states in mid-east small and manageable by the powers of this world.
1) they should

...............

crisis to boot AND Russia/USA decided they needed a new partner in the region with a larger mass)

I wanna talk about your thoughts and federalism but when I checked I saw you neither have filled your profile nor started any welcome thread. what about introducing yourself prior to making such interesting!? comments?

thank you

**Mercenary** · 03 Sep 08,, 06:41

Originally Posted by Bankotsu

What about the big states like USA, Russia, China and Canada?

I think they should be dismembered too so they won't become too powerful.

But the point is ..they're already "too powerful" so much so that they(some of them) can decide whether to dismember or rejoin states across the world..

Rule of law: To dismember someone..you should be more powerful than them