I think that depends on who wins the next election.
Not the American one, that's irrelevant. I'm talking the Iraqi one.
It seems the war will be over soon, if this draft passes.US, Iraq have draft to pull US troops out
By MATTHEW LEE and QASSIM ABDUL-ZAHRA, Associated Press Writer
1 hour, 58 minutes ago
Iraq and the U.S. have reached preliminary agreement to withdraw American forces from Iraqi cities by next June, six years into the increasingly unpopular war, Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said Thursday after meeting with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
The negotiations over a withdrawal timetable follow long insistence by President Bush that setting any schedule for U.S. troops to leave would be dangerous. The draft agreement with Iraq would link troop reductions to achievement of certain security milestones, although the details have not been made public.
Time has become ever more important in discussions between U.S. and Iraqi officials with Bush heading into its final months and the presidential candidates tussling daily over how and when they would move to end the war.
Democrat Barack Obama has said he would begin pulling troops out immediately upon taking office and have all combat forces out within 16 months. Republican John McCain has said the situation in Iraq will dictate any pullout schedule, not a timetable set up without consideration of how the war is going.
Rice and Zebari, appearing together at a news conference, asserted that the proposed deal reflects growing confidence in the ability of Iraqi forces to secure the country. A final agreement would require endorsement of the proposed deal by top Iraqi leaders and the Iraqi parliament.
Zebari said the draft would be presented to top leaders, including Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Some members of al-Maliki's Cabinet are known to oppose some aspects.
"What we have accomplished in this agreement is the most advanced version of any" such deal between the United States and other countries where U.S. forces are based, Zebari told reporters, "because the U.S. negotiators indeed showed a great deal of flexibility and understanding."
Rice spoke optimistically of completing a deal but stressed that it still needs top-level Iraqi approval.
"We think it's a good agreement," she said. "We recognize that the government still has to review this agreement ... and we'll await that process, and then it obviously has to go to the Council of Representatives." She was referring to the Iraqi parliament; the Bush administration does not plan to submit the deal to Congress for approval.
The Iraqis have demanded specific timelines for the departure of American forces, and initially the Bush administration resisted.
"We have agreed that some goals, some aspirational timetables for how that might unfold, are well worth having in such an agreement," Rice told reporters after meeting with Iraqi officials, including the prime minister. The two sides had come together on a draft agreement earlier this week and Rice made an unannounced visit to Baghdad to press officials there to endorse it.
Zebari, asked about fears expressed by neighboring countries over such a pact, said in Arabic: "This decision (agreement) is a sovereign one and Iran and other neighboring countries have the right to ask for clarifications. ... There are clear articles (that) say that Iraq will not be used as a launching pad for any aggressive acts against neighboring countries and we already did clarify this."
A key part of the U.S.-Iraqi draft agreement envisions the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq's cities by next June 30, according to Iraqi and American officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because the proposed deal's details have not been publicly announced. A related issue is setting additional timelines for troop withdrawals, including a date by which all U.S. forces would be gone.
Said Zebari: "This agreement determines the principle provisions, requirements, to regulate the temporary presence and the time horizon, the mission of the U.S. forces."
U.S. military forces went into in Iraq in early 2003 and overthrew President Saddam Hussein and the war is now in its sixth year. There have been more than 4,100 U.S. deaths there and countless losses among Iraqis. The war looms as a key issue in the campaign in the United States to elect a successor to Bush, with McCain accusing Obama of advocating too precipitate a withdrawal of U.S. forces from the country.
"We're not sitting here talking about an agreement to try to get out of a bad situation," Rice said, asserting that the draft "builds on the success we have had in the last year. This agreement is based on success."
Followers of anti-American Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr criticized Rice's visit and repeated their opposition to the security agreement. Sadr's followers control 30 of the 275 seats in parliament.
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Associated Press reporter Robert Burns from Washington and Robert Reid from Baghdad contributed to this story.
I think that depends on who wins the next election.
Not the American one, that's irrelevant. I'm talking the Iraqi one.
US troops 'to quit Iraq by 2011'
US combat troops could leave Iraq by 2011 under the terms of a deal awaiting approval by Iraq's parliament and presidency, an Iraqi official has said.
The draft security agreement also calls for US forces to withdraw from all Iraqi urban areas by June 2009.
The 27-point agreement reportedly includes a compromise allowing US soldiers some immunity under Iraqi law.
The final date when US troops leave will depend largely on security, the BBC's Crispin Thorold in Baghdad says.
The decision will be taken by a joint committee, which could reduce or extend the amount of time US troops spend in the country.
Mohammed al-Haj Hammoud, the top Iraqi official negotiating with the US on the status of US forces in Iraq, said a deal had been agreed that envisaged all US combat troops leaving Iraq by 2011.
Some US troops could remain beyond 2011 "to train Iraqi security forces", the AFP news agency quoted him as saying.
"The combat troops will withdraw from Iraqi cities by June 2009," Mr Hammoud said.
"Both the parties have agreed on this... The negotiators' job is done. Now it is up to the leaders."
A White House spokesman has however said details of the draft agreement were still being discussed.
Gordon Johndroe said US President George W Bush had spoken with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki about the deal.
They "had a good conversation", Mr Johndroe said, adding that "there are a lot of details that have to be worked out".
Handover aim
A deal also appears to have been struck on the controversial issue of granting US troops immunity from prosecution under Iraqi law.
Mr Hammoud said the deal allowed US troops to remain immune from prosecution on military bases and while on operation.
All other cases would be considered by a joint judicial committee.
The draft deal still needs to be approved by the Iraqi Presidential Council, and critically, by the parliament.
The deal marks the end of 10 months of difficult negotiations.
Speaking on a visit to Baghdad on Thursday, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the final deal would be in line with Iraqi laws and sovereignty.
Ms Rice said the aim remained to hand over responsibility for security to Iraqi forces.
There are currently around 147,000 US troops in Iraq.
We will see what happens. I'm not confident that we will have all of our troops out by then. This process will take an extraordinary amount of time.
Maliki is also banking on the Bush administration's concerns regarding Obama taking office. The tone of this negotiation could shift if McCain pulls ahead in the polls. For example, the Bush administration would more strongly insist on pullout schedule depending on conditions on the ground, or even pre-set benchmarks, if it knew that McCain would be around to shepherd the process. On the other hand, there would be no point trying to negotiate something like this if Obama becomes president, as he will want to pull out ASAP in any case.
'The withdrawal of American troops'. It's what we ALL wanted from the start of this damned war. But, oh...what a difference there was - and continues to be - in the WAY the two sides wanted those troops to leave.
Democrats and all other anti-war forces - including our unspeakably evil enemies, the terrorists - wanted them withdrawn as soon as possible, without reference to any American interest or any fidelity to our solemn commitments. They just wanted us GONE, and by going, there was never any other possible outcome but defeat. Indeed, immediate withdrawal was synonymous with defeat.
Well, the people that always insisted on victory - I'm one of them - have prevailed. America's fidelity to her word will be upheld. Not just to never abandon the Iraqis to the horrible fate of an untouchable aQ caliphate that could have done as it pleased with their new hostages across an entire nation, but also to respect Iraqi sovereignty and resources. We never came to steal oil, or to colonize Iraq, and this development shows just how bankrupt our enemies' - foreign AND domestic - lies always were.
We're negotiating the end of our military involvement with a sovereign state government that treats with us as equals, and they're not a vassal, knuckling under to American imperial condescension. This is NOT a former Warsaw Pact slave-state, that must watch helplessly as the withdrawing army of occupation strips the country of anything it wants to carry away, and sullenly pulls out of a trampled and abused former victim of bully-boy coercion, threatening to return, if the slave catches their eye again.
No. We'll leave with the gratitude of a liberated people, and with our flags flying and our drums beating. We won. And our partners, the Iraqis, won, too. Some of our other partners were less than honorable along the way. Many quit. Some cut deals with our enemy to make life easier for themselves. Some impeded themselves with restrictions on their efforts, borne out of political cowardice or with an eye toward currying favor with commercial concerns. Very few stayed with us all the way to the successful end, and fought with the all the strength and determination that it took; we were virtually alone in putting the effort that was necessary into getting to a successful conclusion - VICTORY.
But we made it, and I've never been prouder of my country. (As a whole, I mean. There are some damned shameful episodes to cause disgust and revulsion until the end of time. And I do believe that history WILL see this as one of our greatest moments...and will note the disgrace that so many, through greed or cowardice, managed to bring on their pitiful legacies.)
So, when the ink is dry, and the handshakes conclude the agreement, another nation will have been freed by American arms. And when we were done, we left, taking only our honor - which we came with, and burnished while we were there.
Unless Obama wins. If he does, disregard everything I just wrote. We'll manage to lose an already-won war, to our eternal shame and humiliation.
"The quickest way of ending a war is to lose it, and if one finds the prospect of a long war intolerable, it is natural to disbelieve in the possibility of victory."
- George Orwell
blues,
first and foremost, welcome back and where have you been??
second, as petraues said...far too early to proclaim victory, and the slim difference between order and chaos still remains. i think it's fair to say that the US has won a strategic victory against AQ in iraq, but that's just one part of the whole operation. if there's no conciliation and integration of the sons of iraq, for instance, the possibility of going back to the bad old days (thankfully at least minus AQ) is still there. but now, more than ever, it's up to the iraqis to chart their own future. we've succeeded in giving them the space, the time, and the money, now they got to stand on their own feet.
finally, as for obama...as much as i dislike the idea of his presidency, i fail to see how a withdrawal timeline that is perhaps a year and a brigade/two more than mccain's will re-invite AQ, and cause a sovereign nation to collapse. that's one frail victory and legacy if that's the case.
The human mind cannot grasp the causes of phenomena in the aggregate. But the need to find these causes is inherent in man’s soul. And the human intellect, without investigating the multiplicity and complexity of the conditions of phenomena, any one of which taken separately may seem to be the cause, snatches at the first, the most intelligible approximation to a cause, and says: “This is the cause!"
-Leo Tolstoy
War and Peace
The WAY we leave, WHY, and WHEN is crucial. If we leave because the war was 'ended' by Obama (and remember this iron, unbreakble rule: only the LOSER gets to end a war), then we will NOT be back, no matter what happens. If, however, we pull the troops out of a secure allied country with whichwe have a mutual defense arrangement, there will ALWAYS be an American interest worthy of our attention and care.
It makes all the difference in the world.
"The quickest way of ending a war is to lose it, and if one finds the prospect of a long war intolerable, it is natural to disbelieve in the possibility of victory."
- George Orwell
Mr Hammoud said the deal allowed US troops to remain immune from prosecution on military bases and while on operation.We're negotiating the end of our military involvement with a sovereign state government that treats with us as equals, and they're not a vassal, knuckling under to American imperial condescension. This is NOT a former Warsaw Pact slave-state, that must watch helplessly as the withdrawing army of occupation strips the country of anything it wants to carry away, and sullenly pulls out of a trampled and abused former victim of bully-boy coercion, threatening to return, if the slave catches their eye again
US will have troops on their territory who will be immune from rule of that lands law. All due respect thats vassalage.
Disagree. These blokes are under the strictest regime of control in military history, anywhere in the world. That they are subject to AMERICAN military jurisdiction and not IRAQI civil jurisdiction is right and proper, and in no way impinges upon Iraqi sovereignty or their perogatives.
"The quickest way of ending a war is to lose it, and if one finds the prospect of a long war intolerable, it is natural to disbelieve in the possibility of victory."
- George Orwell
bluesman,
i agree. but given the current negotiations about the future US role in iraq, as well as the increasing mil-to-mil relationship, i'm not so sure that's going to be obama's call anymore. bush should have most of that nailed down before he leaves office.The WAY we leave, WHY, and WHEN is crucial. If we leave because the war was 'ended' by Obama (and remember this iron, unbreakble rule: only the LOSER gets to end a war), then we will NOT be back, no matter what happens. If, however, we pull the troops out of a secure allied country with whichwe have a mutual defense arrangement, there will ALWAYS be an American interest worthy of our attention and care.
It makes all the difference in the world.
and with the current timeframes being discussed very similar to what obama's talking about now, i don't see any incentive for an obama presidency to change this. bush has done all the hard work.
The human mind cannot grasp the causes of phenomena in the aggregate. But the need to find these causes is inherent in man’s soul. And the human intellect, without investigating the multiplicity and complexity of the conditions of phenomena, any one of which taken separately may seem to be the cause, snatches at the first, the most intelligible approximation to a cause, and says: “This is the cause!"
-Leo Tolstoy
War and Peace
Very well-put. But I think this idiot can screw up a wet dream. He has the smell of disaster all over him, and if we let him have the keys to the Pentagon, I believe he'll find a way for the Iraq needle to swing from "Victory' to 'Debacle' on the Progress Meter. There ARE ways to ensure that instead of leaving a competent and safe Iraq behind, we manage to send the message that except for the helicopterts taking the last panicky embassy staff of the roof, we're abandoning the fight, becuase, in the end, aQ was tougher than we were, and Allah saved the battle for 'em at the last minute. It would be a powerful distinction.
We gotta act like winners, or we'll be perceived as losers. In the Muslim world, the difference is decisive.
"The quickest way of ending a war is to lose it, and if one finds the prospect of a long war intolerable, it is natural to disbelieve in the possibility of victory."
- George Orwell
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